Thunder-Nuggets Outlook
By Kevin Rogers
No. 4 Oklahoma City Thunder vs. No. 5 Denver Nuggets
Skinny: The Thunder has made great strides since moving from Seattle to Oklahoma City, as just three seasons after settling in the center of the country, this team is a division champion. Oklahoma City was eliminated in six games of last season's first round to the eventual champion Lakers, but this time around the Thunder battles a resurgent Nuggets' squad.
Denver may have lost its stars when Carmelo Anthony and Chauncey Billups were traded to New York at the All-Star break, but that deal brought this team together. The Nuggets won nine of their first 11 games following the blockbuster trade, while finishing 18-7 over the last 25 games to grab the fifth seed. George Karl's club led the league in scoring at 107.5 ppg, but the Nuggets cashed the 'under' 16 times after the Anthony trade.
The Thunder were thought to be that "it" team in the Western Conference this season after giving the Lakers fits in the opening round of last season's playoffs. Kevin Durant led the league in scoring for the second straight season, while Russell Westbrook elevated himself as one of the elite young point guards in this league by scoring 21.2 ppg and dishing out 8.1 assists/game. Following the trade of Jeff Green to Boston for Kendrick Perkins, the Thunder ran off 19 wins in the last 24 games to clinch the franchise's first division title since 2005.
The Nuggets mixed in new acquisitions Raymond Felton, Danilo Gallinari, and Wilson Chandler to the nucleus of Nene, Ty Lawson, J.R. Smith, Kenyon Martin, Al Harrington, and Arron Afflalo to put Denver in the playoffs for the eighth straight season. The only problem is the Nuggets have failed to get out of the opening round six times in this stretch, with the only aberration coming in 2009 when Denver lost in the conference finals to the Lakers.
Scott Brooks' squad claimed three of four regular season meetings, starting with a Christmas night victory at Oklahoma City Arena, 114-106. A second-half surge by the Thunder cashed tickets as 6 ½-point favorites, as Durant put up 44 points and OKC shot nearly 50% shooting from the floor. It didn't help matters that Anthony missed his second straight game following the death of his sister, but the Nuggets shot a blistering 52% from the field in the loss.
The lone victory for the Nuggets in this series came on January 19 at the Pepsi Center in a 112-107 triumph as 3 ½-point 'chalk.' Anthony was the difference this time around with 35 points, while Durant and Westbrook combined for 50 points in the defeat. The loss by the Thunder came during a difficult stretch as OKC faced five straight playoff squads and went just 2-3.
The Thunder grabbed the final two meetings over the Nuggets in a four-day span this month. Oklahoma City picked up a hard-fought 101-94 win in Denver as 4 ½-point 'dogs as Durant and Gallinari needed to be separated in the final minutes due to some pushing and shoving. The Thunder finished off the season series with a 104-89 thumping at home on April 8, as the Nuggets were held to 40% shooting and hit just five of 18 attempts from three-point range.
Gambling Notes: Oklahoma City may have owned a solid home record at 30-11, but the Thunder was extremely average as a home favorite with a 19-19-1 ATS mark. The scoreboard was lit up at Oklahoma City Arena this season as the Thunder cashed the 'over' in 25 of 41 home contests. The Thunder will likely be listed as underdogs when the series shifts to Denver, as OKC compiled a 14-9 ATS mark as road 'dogs.
The Nuggets finished the season covering nine of 11 games when receiving points on the highway, while going an insane 20-4-1 ATS after the Anthony trade to New York. Denver dropped only one home game since the All-Star break, the early April setback to Oklahoma City, but the Nuggets went 10-1 down the stretch at the Pepsi Center.
Series Outlook: It's put up or shut up for these two teams, who are each trying to make moves in the top-heavy Western Conference. The Thunder knows they likely will face the top-seeded Spurs in the next round, but they do take on a Nuggets' team that has come together since the departure of Anthony and Billups. Even though it's not a huge upset, the Nuggets have an excellent opportunity to end their first-round jinx and advance in six games.
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