Scott Rickenbach
Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres
PICK: under 7
First off these are two of the weakest offenses in the league. Arizona has scored just nine runs in their last four games and San Diego has scored just thirteen runs in their last six games! Additionally, the Padres have the 3rd lowest batting average in the majors. While the Diamondbacks do hit better than the Padres, Arizona does struggle in terms of run production. As for the pitchers here, Dan Haren of Arizona has proven to be the toughest pitcher to hit in the majors so far this season. He's allowed two earned runs or less in all six of his starts. As for Chris Young of the Padres, his ERA is not overly impressive but that was greatly impacted by two rough starts at two hitter friendly parks.
Young was roughed up at Philly's Citizen's Bank Park and at Denver's Coors Field. Other than that, Young has allowed just three earned runs in 27 innings of work. That equates to an ERA of 1.00 and in San Diego's pitcher-friendly Petco Park Thursday afternoon, one should absolutely expect a pitchers' duel to ensue between these two fine hurlers! Consider a small play on UNDER the total in San Diego on Thursday afternoon! Don't miss Scott Rickenbach's Guaranteed Picks for Thursday. Even with a rare, tough day on Wednesday Scott is still on a 13-4 MLB run and his MLB is 188-128 since June 30, 2008 and has picked up 52.5 net winners during this stretch. Long-term he's a winner and, on Thursday, betting on a bounce back is likely to pay off very, very well!
Ben Burns
Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees
Prediction: New York Yankees
The Rays scored the upset in yesterday's opener but I expect the Yankees to have the advantage this evening. Pettitte is 2-1 with a fairly respectable 3.82 ERA and 1.303 WHIP. The Yankees have won four of his five starts. Niemann, on the other hand, comes in with a 2-3 record and a poor 5.68 ERA and 1.658 WHIP. He lasted just three innings in his last start.
While they beat a tough right-hander yesterday, the Rays have had real trouble with southpaw starters. In fact, dating back to last year's playoffs, they're an ugly 1-10 the last 11 times that they were matched up against a left-hander.
With the Yankees at 75-52 the last 127 times that they were coming off three consecutive losses, "consider laying the wood."
Alex Smart
Milwaukee Brewers -103
The Milwaukee Brewers are currently operating on all cylinders, winning four straight games . Last night the Brewers offense exploded to a smash their hosts the Cincinnati Reds by a 15-4 count. That is not a good omen for Reds backers , as they send the struggling Micah Owings (1-3, 4.84 ERA) out the hill to face a Brew Crew team he has never beaten , thanks to allowing them a ugly looking .339 batting average in 3 starts which includes garnering a massive 7.71 ERA. This past Saturday, Owings allowed five runs and nine hits in 5 2-3 innings of lackluster work in a 8-6 loss to the Pirates and I won;t be surprised if he gets hammered again in this spot. If he falters, he is backed by a bullpen that has recorded a nasty 5.54 ERA in home tilts. Meanwhile, the Brewers will return fire with Brandon Looper (2-1, 3.10), a hurler that has enjoyed success vs the Reds in the past as is evident by a 4-1 record and a 2.57 ERA in 7 starts since 2007. The right hander beat the Reds earlier this season, via a 9-3 final score. Loopers only loss this season, came in his last start, despite of of carrying a no hitter in the 5th inning . I'm betting on the Brewers most reliable starter to bounce back with a big time effort and do more than enough to get us the win. It must be noted that two of the Reds top hitters, Jay Bruce and Brandon Phillips are a combined 2 for 27 vs Looper, for a lowly 0.74 BA.
Final notes & Key Trends: The Brewers have won 7 of their L9 road games.Reds have lost 4 of their L/5 as home dogs. Reds Starter Owings has seen his team lose 11 of the L/14 night starts.
Play on Milwaukee
LT Profits
Texas Rangers @ Oakland Athletics
The Oakland Athletics and the Texas Rangers have gone Under in all three head-to-head meetings so far this season, and we expect more of the same tonight.
The run output in those meetings has gotten progressively lower, as these teams combined to score nine runs in their first meeting, six in the second and then five in a 3-2 Rangers win in the series opener here last night.
The main reason we are confident that this Under streak will continue is young Oakland starter Trevor Cahill. Although he has yet to pick up his first Major League win, the former first round draft choice has lived up to his billing to this point, allowing two earned runs or less in four of his five starts. He may be coming off of his best effort yet, allowing one run in six innings vs. the Seattle Mariners, and he should continue to be tough on teams that have not faced him.
The Rangers fall into that category, and their starter Brandon McCarthy is 3-0 while allowing three earned runs or less in four of his five starts. It helps that he is facing an Oakland offense that is averaging the fewest runs in the American League, at just 4.1 runs per game, and this stadium continue to favor the pitchers with its dimensions and spacious foul territory, just as it has for years.
Look for the Oakland offense to continue to struggle, and for Cahill to keep the Texas bats in check.
Pick: Rangers / Athletics Under 9.5
Jrtips
PHILLIES vs. METS
The Mets start Mike Pelfrey (3-0, 6.00 ERA) as they look to sweep the home series from the Philadelphia Phillies for the first time in almost 12 years tonight.The right-hander struggled in his last outing Friday giving up three runs and seven hits with four walks, throwing 104 pitches in 5 1-3 innings of a 7-4 road victory over the Phillies. Pelfrey is 2-2 with a 4.28 ERA in five starts against the Phillies. For the Phillies Jamie Moyer (3-1, 5.65) , the 46-year-old left-hander went 2-0 with a 1.35 ERA in three starts last season vs. the Mets. Moyer is 3-0 with a 5.32 ERA in his last four starts, with the Phillies winning all of them. He allowed five runs and seven hits with four walks in 5 2-3 innings against the Mets on Saturday, but Philadelphia won 6-5 in 10 innings.The Phillies have scored 39 runs in Moyer's last four outings. Both teams had quiet bats yesterday but are very familiar with both starting pitchers as they faced them last Friday. The hitters have the advantage today as they put up 11 runs combined in the last matchup. Look for more runs today today in a ball park built for extra base hits.
TAKE OVER 10
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Toronto Blue Jays +152
The Jays are showing exceptional value on the road tonight against an Angels team they just crushed 13-1. While the Angels might have the slight pitching edge with Weaver, it won't be enough to make up for the way the Jays are swinging the bats right now. Toronto is averaging 6.9 runs per game on the road, which is a run-and-a-half more than the Angels are averaging at home, and it has scored double digit runs in back-to-back games. History tells us momentum cannot be overlooked in baseball as plays on any team; very good offensive team (>=5.7 runs/game) against a very good starting pitcher (ERA<=3.50) (AL), after a win by 4 runs or more, are 70-38 since 1997. Back the Jays as they continue to swing big bats tonight.
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY (Power Angle Play)
St Louis/ Pittsburgh Over 9.5
The Over is 11-4 in Pirates last 15 games as a road underdog of +151 to +200, while the Over is 21-8-1 in Cardinals last 30 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400 and 6-1-1 in Wellemeyers last 8 starts as a home favorite. Russ Olendorf has pitched very well for the Pirates in the early going, with a 3.48 ERA in his 5 starts, including a 2.70 ERA in his last 3 starts. Those last 3 starts produced 11 rpg. Today he will have his hands full with a St Louis offense that is 5th in hitting (.276) and 8th in scoring (5.5 rpg). The Cards also hit .299 and score 5.6 rpg at home. The Cards are 5th in pitching overall, but today they have their weakest satrter on the mound. Todd Wellemyer comes in with a 5.28 ERA in his 5 starts, including an 8.40 ERA in his 3 home starts. Todd/s last 3 starts have averaged 10.3 rpg, while his home starts have averaged 11.3 rpg. Todd does owns a 3.83 ERA in 7 starts vs the Pirates, but his last 3 starts vs them has produced 15.7 rpg. The Pirate offense has not been good this year overall, but they are due for a breakout game and should be able to tag Wellemyer for 4 or 5 runs, while the Cards will be able to put at least 7 runs on the board on their own. Cardinal home games have averaged 10.1 rpg, while their day games have averaged 11.3 rpg. I see at least 12 runs on the board in this one.
POWER ANGLE For The Play--- Since July 18th 2008 the Over is 14-2-1 when the Cardinals are facing a team that lost at least their last 3 games.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Atlanta/ Florida Under 9
The Under is 6-1-1 in Braves last 8 games as a favorite of -110 to -150, while the Under is 8-2-2 in Sanchezs last 12 starts following a team loss in their previous game. Anibalo Sanchex has not pitched well overall this year with a 5.46 ERA overall and a 7.84 ERA in his last 3 starts, but in his lone start this year he didn't allow an ER in 5 innings of work, plus he has a career 3.17 ERA at Dolphin Stadium. Despite his hig overall ERA his games have averaged just 7.4 rpg, with all 5 of his starts going under the total. Jair Jurrjens has pitched extremely well this year with a 1.89 ER overall, including an 0.45 ERA in his 3 road starts. Jair's games have averaged just 5.33 rpg overall and a mere 2.67 rpg on the road. The Braves have not been scoring runs for him this year as they have averaged 2.7 rpg overall for him, including just 1.67 rpg on the road. Atlanta has scored just 3.5 rpg vs righty starters this year, while the Marlins have averaged just 2.6 rpg in their last 5 games overall and just 2.9 rpg in their last 7 home games. Both pitchers have been involved in many low scoring games in the Early going and I see anoher on this afternoon.
Arizona/ San Diego Under 7:
The Under is 10-1-2 in Diamondbacks last 13 vs. National League West and 13-3-1 in Diamondbacks last 17 road games vs. a team with a winning home record, while the Under is 7-2 in Padres last 9 home games vs. a right-handed starter Under is 20-6 in Youngs last 26 home starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Both of these teams are having serious problems at the plate right now, as the Pads come in hitting just .167 and scoring 2.6 rpg in their last 7 games, while the D-Backs are hitting just .207 and scoring 2.7 rpg in their last 7 games. Danny Haren has pitched very well for the D-Backs as he own a 1.47 ERA in his 6 starts and those starts have averaged a mere 4.17 rpg. Haren also has a 2.93 ERA in 7 starts vs the Padres, including a 2.63 ERA at Petco. Chris Young has struggled on the road this year, but at home he has a very nice 1.38 ERA in 2 starts, with those games averaging just 6.5 rpg. Petco is the 3rd lowest scoring park in the league and with 2 struggling offenses and some solid pitching on the mound, i see this one scoring about 5 runs at most.
2 UNIT PLAY
KANSAS CITY -118 over Seattle
The Mariners are 0-8 in Washburns last 8 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game, while the Royals are 10-1 in their last 11 games as a favorite of -110 to -150 and 16-5 in their last 21 vs. American League West. Jarrod Washburn is 8-5 with a 3.29 ERA in 16 starts vs the Royals, including a 6-1 mark with a 2.30 ERA in 10 starts at Kauffman Stadium, but these are not the same pathetc Royals the he has faced in the past. The Royals offense is getting better as they are now ranked 13th in scoring at 4.96 rpg thanks to hitting .310 and scoring 7.9 rpg in their last 8 games, plus they have hit lefty starters pretty well as they are hitting .288 and scoring 5.6 rpg vs them on the year. Seattle has put up just 4.7 rog in their last 7 and they have hit just .249 and have scored just 3.7 rpg vs righty starters on the year. That struggling offense must now take on Brian Bannister who is 2-0 with a 1.96 ERA overall, including 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA at home. Both teams are the suprise leaders in their divisions, but the Royals are the hotter team, with the better offense and the #1 ranked pitching staff in the league, plus playing at home doesn't hurt either. Look for that hot streak to continue.
1 UNIT PLAY
San Francisco +132 Over COLORADO
Greg Shaker
Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox
Play: Chicago White Sox
Two good throwers tonight for both teams but reasons to back our thrower tonight as he has been much better here at this park, posting a 2.60 ERA in 3 starts here. Chicago has not had a great start to the season, but they have won all 5 times that Buehrle has stepped onto the mound. The Tigers are without Carlos Guillen, who was placed on the disabled list Tuesday with shoulder inflammation, and Ordonez is not hitting the ball at all, going 0-8 verses the Twins. Detroit has not faired well at this park as well, at just 1-7 last 8 played here. Certainly the second line throwers for us are better and performing much better over the last 10 played with comparative ERA's at 2.38 verses Detroit's 5.29. I like the small number here and I will lay it. This is the game that was rained out yesterday.
Wunderdog
Washington at Los Angeles Dodgers
Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers -155
The Dodgers took a real blow with the news that Manny Ramirez will be suspended for 50 games, due to testing positive for performance-enhancing drugs. That may be the only bad news for the Dodgers so far this season. They are off to a 13-0 start at home, and facing the lowly Nationals, who have been one of the worst road teams in baseball in recent memory, shouldn't challenge the streak. The Nats are a dismal 24-56 in their last 80 as an underdog, while the Dodgers are an amazing 39-12 in their last 51 home games. Enough said. Dodgers get the call here.