SPORTS ADVISORS
(23) Illinois (18-4, 11-6-1 ATS) at Wisconsin (12-9, 7-11-1 ATS)
Illinois, which has dropped its last three on the road, heads to the Kohl Center in Madison for a Big Ten meeting with freefalling Wisconsin.
The Fighting Illini bounced back from an embarrassing 59-36 beatdown at Minnesota and topped Iowa 62-54 Sunday, failing to cover as an 11½-point chalk. For the season, Illinois has averaged 67.8 ppg, more than 11 points better than its opposition (56.6). But on the road, the Illini are scoring 59.4 ppg on just 39.4 percent shooting, while allowing 65.2 ppg (42.1 percent).
The Badgers tumbled to Northwestern 66-63 Saturday as a one-point road pup for their sixth consecutive setback (0-5-1 ATS, all in the Big Ten), falling to a team they had beaten by 29 points three weeks earlier at home. Wisconsin, which has typically been stingy on defense, has allowed 61.8 ppg this season, but that number has gone up to 69.0 over the past five games, contributing to its current slide.
Since opening Big Ten play with a 71-67 overtime win at Purdue, Illinois has lost three straight conference road games (1-2 ATS). Meanwhile, the Badgers won three straight games (2-1 ATS) to start the conference season, but have followed up with their current six-game winning streak, going 0-2 SU and ATS at home.
Wisconsin is 5-1 SU (4-1-1 ATS) in the last six meetings with Illinois, though the Illini won 64-57 at home two weeks ago and pushed as a seven-point chalk. The favorite is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six contests, and the road team is on a 7-3-1 ATS run.
The Fighting Illini are on a 2-8 ATS slide in Thursday games, but they are otherwise on positive ATS surges of 5-2 on the road, 5-1 after a non-cover, 12-5-1 against winning teams and 4-0 as an underdog of three points or more. The Badgers are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games following an ATS loss, but they are on a bundle of pointspread declines, including 0-4-1 after a SU loss, 0-5-1 against winning teams and 1-4 at home.
The under for Illinois is on runs of 5-1 overall (all in the Big Ten) and 4-0 after a SU win, but the over is on a 9-2 run in Thursday games for the Illini. The over for Wisconsin is on rolls of 4-1 overall, 5-1 at home and 5-1 after a SU loss, but the under is 6-2 in the Badgers’ last eight Thursday starts. Finally, the under is 6-3 in the last nine in this rivalry, including 2-0 in the last two.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
(22) Washington (16-5, 12-7 ATS) at California (16-6, 11-8 ATS)
Washington, coming off a two-game swing in Arizona last week, remains on the road for two more games this week in the Bay Area, starting with this contest against California.
The Huskies earned a split in the desert, losing a shootout to Arizona 106-97 as a one-point chalk last Thursday, then bouncing back with Saturday’s 84-71 victory over Arizona State as a five-point underdog. Washington has won five of its last six games (4-2 ATS) and 14 of its last 16, scoring more than 80 points 12 of the last 15 contests. During their current 5-1 run, the Huskies are outscoring foes by an average of 10.5 ppg (85.7-75.2).
The Golden Bears dropped both their games on last week’s swing through Los Angeles, falling 81-66 at UCLA last Thursday as a 10-point pup and 73-62 at Southern Cal on Saturday as a five-point pup. California has followed up a nine-game SU and eight-game ATS winning streak by going 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS in their last five. The Bears are averaging 75.3 ppg for the season, but in the past five games, they’ve reached that just once, averaging 67.6 ppg while allowing 73.4.
Washington is 7-2 SU and 5-4 ATS in the Pac-10, including 4-1 SU and ATS on the road, while the Bears have dropped to 5-4 SU and 4-5 ATS in league play (3-1, 2-2 ATS at home).
Cal is on a 3-1 SU and ATS run in this rivalry, including an 88-85 overtime victory as a six-point road ‘dog last month. The Bears are 4-1-1 ATS in the last six clashes, but the visitor is 3-0-1 ATS in the last four.
The Huskies are on ATS runs of 5-1 on the highway and 4-1 in roadies against teams with a winning home record. The Golden Bears are on a 6-2 ATS run at home and are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games against winning teams, but their current five-game ATS slide has all come in Pac-10 play, and they are 2-6 ATS in their last eight Thursday games.
The over for Washington is on rolls of 8-0 overall, 4-0 on the road, 14-2 in Pac-10 play, 6-0 after a SU win, 4-0 on Thursday and 4-0 against winning teams. Likewise, the over for Cal is on stretches of 4-0 against winning teams, 8-2 on Thursday, 20-6 in the Pac-10 and 25-12 overall. Finally, the total has gone high in each of the last four contests in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
NBA
L.A. Lakers (39-9, 25-23 ATS) at Boston (41-9, 28-22 ATS)
The Celtics shoot for their 13th straight victory when they host the Lakers inside TD Banknorth Garden in this rematch of last season’s NBA championship series.
Los Angeles is a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS on its current six-game road trip after beating the Raptors 115-107 on Wednesday as a 7½-point favorite. The Lakers’ offense has been unstoppable lately, scoring at least 110 points in each of their last five, while averaging 116.4 points and 49.9 percent shooting during this stretch. L.A. has won eight of its last nine and cashed in nine of its last 13.
Boston edged the Sixers 100-99 on Monday, coming up short as a three-point road chalk. The Celtics have failed to cover the number in either of their last two after getting the cash in eight straight. The two-game ATS skid coincides with Kevin Garnett being sidelined with the flu, but the Celtics’ forward is expected to be in the lineup tonight.
These two teams have gone about their success differently this season with the Celtics relying on defense while the Lakers are scoring in bunches. Boston allows 91.5 ppg while the Lakers are giving up and even 100 ppg this year. But Los Angeles scores 108.7 per contest with the Celtics putting up 101.3 ppg.
The classic rivals met on Christmas Day in Los Angeles with the Lakers dominating the final five minutes en route to a 92-83 victory as two-point favorites. The spread-cover snapped an 8-0 ATS run for the Celtics in this rivalry, including Boston’s 6-0 ATS run in last season’s NBA Finals. Los Angeles has come up empty, both SU and ATS, in its last four trips to Beantown.
The Lakers are riding positive ATS streaks that include 6-1 overall, 6-1 on the road, 12-4-1 as underdogs (3-0 as a pup this season), 16-5-2 as road ‘dogs, 8-2 on Thursdays and 5-1 against the Atlantic Division. The Celtics are also on a plethora of ATS runs, including 4-1 at home, 24-10 against Western Conference opposition, 7-2 as a favorite and 19-7 at home against teams with a winning road record.
Los Angeles has stayed below the total in nine of its last 12 as an underdog, but the otherwise the team is on “over” on streaks of 5-0 overall, 7-0 on the road, 8-1 against the Atlantic Division and 16-6 against the Eastern Conference. For the Celtics, the over is 5-1 in their last six at home and 4-1 in their last five overall, but the under is 11-4-1 in their last 16 against the Western Conference, 9-4 when playing after one day off and 4-1 in their last five against the Pacific Division.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON
Dallas (29-19, 23-25 ATS) at Utah (27-22, 24-25 ATS)
The struggling Jazz welcome the Mavericks to Salt Lake City and will try to snap Dallas’ four-game winning streak.
Dallas continued its winning ways Wednesday, holding off Portland 104-99 and narrowly cashing as 3½-point favorites. The Mavs have cashed in all four games during their winning streak and are 4-2 SU and ATS in their last six on the highway. Dallas has stepped up the offense, averaging 109.8 ppg on 52.5 percent shooting over its last six outings, reaching triple digits in each contest.
Utah has dropped five of its last seven both SU and ATS, and the Jazz are 2-7 ATS in their last nine overall. However, the Jazz looked solid in Monday’s 105-86 home win over the Bobcats, cashing as seven-point favorites. They are just 2-2 SU and ATS in their last four home games.
Utah has dominated this rivalry at home, going 10-1-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings in Salt Lake City, including a 97-88 win back on Dec. 26, covering as a two-point favorite. Dallas got revenge in a 115-108 win on Jan. 17 in Texas, getting the cash as a five-point chalk. The Jazz are 6-2-1 ATS in the last eight meetings overall, and the home team is 20-7-1 in the last 28 series clashes.
Dallas is on ATS slides of 7-21-1 on Thursdays, 4-11 against Northwest Division foes and 4-9-1 when playing the second night of a back-to-back. However, the Mavs are 7-2 ATS in their last nine overall and 5-2 ATS in their last seven on the road. Utah is 20-9 ATS in its last 29 against the Southwest Division, but it is mired in pointspread slumps of 5-11 on Thursdays, 1-6 against Western Conference rivals and 0-6 against teams with a winning record.
The Mavericks have stayed under the posted total in 55 of their last 81 games against the Northwest Division, but the over is 4-1 in their last five roadies and 9-4 in their last 13 against teams with a winning record. For Utah, the under is 7-3 in its last 10 Thursday affairs and 7-3 in its last 10 games after two days off, but the over is 14-4 in its last 18 overall and 10-3 in its last 13 games against Western Conference teams. Finally, the under is 7-2 in the last nine head-to-head meetings in Utah.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
JIM FEIST
INDIANA PACERS / PHILADELPHIA 76ERS
Take: INDIANA PACERS
Oddsmakers have caught up with Philly, a good team, but not great, on a 2-5 ATS run. The depth got some bad news this week as Elton Brand's dislocated right shoulder is still hurting. He is becoming more and more aware of pain and restrictiveness as he tried to shoot or reach for rebounds. Against the Celtics he had a large protective pad around the shoulder, but he played only 8 minutes, 40 seconds of the first half, then sat out the second half. And now the question is whether the Sixers should consider shutting him back down. These teams have met twice this season and each game was a squeaker, decided by 1 and 2 points. Indiana's potent offense should keep this one close, as well. Play the Pacers.
James Patrick Sports
Northern Arizona vs. Portland State
In College Basketball action on Thursday our selection is Portland State Vikings as the home team is 4-1 ATS as well as the favorite. The NAU Lumberjacks are just 1-6 on this court. The Vikings Voyage is a successful one here.
Marc Lawrence
Play On: Santa Clara
The Broncos travel to San Diego to take on the Toreros at the Jenny Craig Pavilion with revenge on their minds from a 55-50 loss suffered at home three weeks ago. Our database reminds us that this series has seen the visitor win the money each of the last seven meetings between these two. In addition, Santa Clara has long fared well against conference opponents that are playing off three losses in a row, going 22-6 SU and 20-7-1 ATS, including 10-0 SU and 9-1 ATS when if the Broncos own a sub .500 record. Too many good numbers in Santa's favor to ignore. We'll grab the points against this struggling favorite.
Cajun Sports
Gonzaga Bulldogs -7.5 vs. Portland Pilots
PLAY: 2* Gonzaga Bulldogs -7.5
The Chiles Center will be the site of tonights late featured game on ESPN2 as the Gonzaga Bulldogs travel to face the Portland Pilots in a West Coast Conference clash. Both teams enter off SU wins in their last game and both teams are on extended winning streaks which for one of these teams will end tonight.
These two teams have already met once this season back on January 10 in Spokane with Gonzaga winning 67 to 50 but failing to cover the 21 point chalk. We understand the revenge motive but recent history doesn’t support that theory because last season Gonzaga defeated Portland at home on January 28th 79 to 41 and then defeated them about a month later in Spokane 73 to 51. In fact Gonzaga is 24-1 straight up in this series since 1997 and 12-0 straight up when playing at Portland.
The Pilots have struggled with success as these tech sets indicate. Portland is 25-44-5 ATS off a straight up win in their last game and if they are now an underdog they are 13-30-4 ATS. If the Pilots won and covered in their last two games they are a perfect 0-11 ATS. If Portland played their last two games at home and are now an underdog their record is 9-28-3 ATS. Since this is a conference game we decided to see how they responded in certain situations and they struggle here as well. Portland facing a conference opponent has posted a record of 42-64-6 ATS, if they are off a SU win they are 7-25-4 ATS and if they are installed as an underdog their record is 3-18-2 ATS. Finally we see that the Pilots are 0-10-2 ATS if they won straight up and covered the spread at home in their last game and are now a conference underdog.
Gonzaga after winning six straight games and now playing on the road have posted a record of 21-8 ATS, if they are a road favorite their record is 16-6 ATS. If the Bulldogs have won eight straight and are now a road favorite they are 14-5 ATS. Bulldogs after losing ATS in their last game and are installed as a road favorite they are 22-9 ATS. As conference road favorites they are 34-19 ATS and if they won their last game SU but lost ATS and are now a conference road favorite they are 13-2 ATS.
Gonzaga is 16-4 straight up and 9-9 against the spread this season. When playing on the road they are 8-3 SU and 6-5 ATS, in conference play they have a record of 7-0 SU and 3-4 ATS averaging 79.4 points per game versus teams that allow 68.5 points per game, defensively they are holding opponents to only 56.0 points per game when they would normally score 68.8 points per game.
Portland is 15-7 straight up and 12-7 against the number in the 2008-09 campaign. When playing at home they are 10-1 SU and 5-4 ATS, in conference play they are 6-1 SU and 6-1 ATS averaging 68.9 points per game versus teams that allow 67.8 points per game, defensively they are holding opponents to 59.6 points per game and these are teams that average 68.1 points per game.
Our Team Performance Ratings Index indicates that the Bulldogs have an 11.2 point advantage over the pilots in tonights contest. Our Math Model Ratings Index also projects the Bulldogs winning and covering the 7.5 point spread by 4.5 to 6.5 points.
With significant technical support, history and situational support we will back the Bulldogs as they continue their winning streak and put an end to their rivals on Thursday night in Spokane.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: (2*) Gonzaga Bulldogs 78 Portland Pilots 67
Dave Cokin
Citadel @ Appalachian State
Play: Citadel +5
One of the better under the radar stories this year is The Citadel. The Bulldogs had been awful for years, but their 13 wins to date this season already matches their total victories over the prior two seasons. The Citadel is 8-4 in conference play, and only got whacked once, by powerful Davidson. The other three losses were all by six or fewer points. Appalachian State has faltered this season, and four of their six league wins are by six or fewer points. With The Citadel on a 5-0 run coming into this one, I like their chances, so I'll lean to grabbing the points with the Bulldogs.
Jeff Benton
A bad call on Wake Forest last night ended the three-day free-play winning streak. Still, I’m 49-32 with my last 81 complimentary plays, and we’ll try to get back on track by backing the Lakers plus the points at Boston in the marquee hoops game of the day.
Obviously, this is a very, very difficult spot for the Lakers, who are playing their fifth road game since Friday, and that includes last night’s difficult 115-107 come-from-behind win in Toronto. Tonight, they’re facing the defending champs, who have won 12 in a row and who should get Kevin Garnett back after the big man missed two games with a bad case of the flu – and who no doubt will be very motivated to pound their archrivals tonight. Not only because the Lakers ended Boston’s 19-game winning streak back on Christmas Day, but also because the Celtics want to send a message that will carry over to the postseason.
That said, The Lakers have won their first four road games during this trip (4-0 ATS), including the last three without center Andrew Bynum, who is sidelined for at least a couple of months with a bad knee injury. Also, L.A. has cashed in six of its last seven overall and six of its last seven on the road. Most impressively, though, Kobe and his crew have been installed as an underdog just three times this season, and they cashed in all three, beating New Orleans twice on the road (93-86 and 100-87), and a last-second, one-point loss at San Antonio (112-111).
Going back to last year, L.A. is on a 16-5-2 ATS run as a road underdog – and rarely during this particular 23-game stretch have the Lakers been catching this kind of take-back. Well, when you consider how well Kobe and Pau Gasol are playing right now – not to mention KG’s situation (who knows how much stamina he’ll have tonight?) – those kind of points are too good to pass up.
Look for the Lakers, who already snapped a long Celtics win streak once this season, to give Boston all it can handle and at the very least stay within this big number.
3♦ L.A. LAKERS
Matt Rivers
For Thursday take the points with Temple.
There is no doubt that Xavier is once again a very very good team and clearly superior to Temple but the Owls are a funny team and I expect them to play well and compete in this spot.
Fran Dunphy's squad is not great but they do have a pretty high upside. The Owls beat up Tennessee earlier in the season and have a stud in Dionte Christmas who always has the potential to take over a game. No that is probably not enough to beat the 19-2 Musketeers on the road but Terrell Holloway is banged up and may not play and the X-men just struggled mightily in beating UMASS by a deuce as the 17 or so point chalk last time out.
Xavier has won 10 straight games but is not an elite blow you out type of a squad. They could win and cover today as this is not a total mortal lock by any means but both losses came at home and the Muskies are still not a team that I can fully trust when laying a large number like this. This is not North Carolina, this is not Duke and this is not UCONN.
In the end Sean Miller's team is too good with Brown, Raymond, Anderson and others but plus this number is the right side as I really think we are looking at a competitve game for 40 minutes.
Sports Gambling Hotline
Indiana +5 at PHILADELPHIA
For Thursday, take the Pacers plus the points at Philadelphia.
Indiana has had Philly's number of late, as the Pacers won and covered the season's first meeting, 95-94 in the City of Brotherly Love as the double-digit underdog to make it a 6-3 series run both straight up, and against the spread.
A closer look shows the Pacers on a 4-1 series roll both straight up, and against the spread, and Indiana is a positive 13-12 against the spread through their 25 road games to date.
Philadelphia is off a hard-faught one-point home loss to mighty Boston, and the Sixers may still be dwelling on that loss when they take to the court tonight.
Philly is just 11-13 against the spread at home this season, and they come into this one off back-to-back home outright losses.
Look for the 76ers to struggle to cover this impost tonight.
Play on the Pacers.
1♦ INDIANA
Karl Garrett
Georgia Tech +9' at FLORIDA STATE
Now 9-2 the last 11 days with my comp plays.
Sticking with another dog in the college ranks tonight, and backing the Yellow Jackets plus the points at Florida State.
This is just too many points, as Paul Hewitt's team is finally off the conference schneid, recording an outright win over Wake Forest their last time out. That win should give the Jackets a little shot of confidence as they head to Florida State to take on a Seminoles team that flirted with the outright win in their last game at home versus North Carolina.
Expect the Sems to suffer a little bit of a let down, as they allow the Yellow Jackets to stay too close for comfort in this one tonight.
Georgia Tech has won and covered in 2 of the last 3 series showdowns, and while an outright may be a bit of a stretch, I think the cover plus the points will never be in doubt.
Take G-Tech.
4♦ GEORGIA TECH
Bobby Maxwell
Washington State at STANFORD -5'
We've hit FREE play winners in eight of the last 11 days and today we'll add to that total as we back Stanford at home in a Pac-10 matchup with Washington State.
Stanford is a tough team at home and they are in a desparate need of a victory. That's a combination we like in this matchup with the Cougars so we'll put our money behind the Cardinal.
And even though they have dropped five of their last seven games, the Cardinal is 6-2 ATS in their last eight games. Stanford got blown out at UCLA on Saturday 97-63 and failed as 10-point 'dogs. They met Washington State back on Jan. 10 and fell 55-54 in Pullman but cashed as three-point underdogs.
The Cougars haven't looked so good lately, losers of three of four overall and they have dropped six of 10 and failed to cover in seven of their last 10. They lost at Arizona 66-56 as five-point 'dogs on Saturday and we see them not being able to contain Stanford tonight.
The home team is 12-5-1 ATS in the last 18 matchups between these two and Stanford is 4-0 SU and ATS in the last four meetings in Northern California. The Cardinal are also 12-4 ATS in their last 16 at home and 13-4 ATS in their last 17 overall. Stanford is also on ATS runs of 12-4 as a home favorite and 9-3 in Pac-10 action. Washington State is just 1-6 ATS as a road 'dog, 3-7 on the road overall, 2-7 as a 'dog overall and 3-7 in Pac-10 play.
This one belongs to the Cardinal.
4♦ STANFORD
Doc's Sports
Take Over 5 ½ in Chicago @ Calgary
Two western conference foes are set to do battle tonight at the Saddledome in Calgary. Both teams are well on their way to receiving a playoff birth as they are tied with 64 points each. The Blackhawks have a strong offensive team led by Patrick Kane and they are in the midst of a long road trip in which they have won three of four games. The Flames are not the traditional strong defensive team as in year’s past, as they have given up 148 this season and thus we will not worry about who wins this game and just collect with the over.
VEGAS EXPERTS
Penn State at Michigan
Huge revenge game and a must-win for Michigan, particularly with a non-conference showdown with top-ranked UConn looming on Saturday. The Wolverines have lost five of six and are fading fast in the Big 10. Despite posting big non-conference wins over both UCLA and Duke, the Maize and Blue's tournament hopes are more than in jeopardy and exacting revenge from a Nittany Lions team that beat them by 15 two weeks ago is a must. Lay this short number.
Play on: Michigan
Jimmy The Moose
Edmonton Oilers at St. Louis Blues
Prediction: Over
The over is 8-3 in the Oilers last 11 road games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. This will be the Blues 3rd game in 4 night's and in their last 9 games in this situation the over is 8-1. The over is a profitbale 11-4 in the Blues last 15 home games. In their last 20 games vs. Western Conference opponents the over is 14-6. The over is 4-0-1 in the Oilers last 5 trips to St. Louis. The over is 7-1-2 in the last 10 meetings between the clubs. Play the over.
LEE KOSTROSKI
Valparaiso @ Wright State
PICK: Valparaiso
This Valpo team was dealt a key blow in early January when they lost guard Brandon McPherson for the season. He was averaging 10 PPG but had been bothered by a bad knee for most of the year. He had only played in 5 games, however he was expected to be a key contibutor and the team suffered when he went out. After his loss, this team was really playing poorly losing three of their next four games and all three losses were double digits. They have since righted the ship and are playing their best basketball of the season.
The Crusaders just finished tipping off against the three top teams in the Horizon League. UW Milwaukee, UW Green Bay and Butler have a combined 29-6 conference record and Valparaiso hung tight with each and actually beat UWM. After their win over the Panthers, they lost a tight game to UWGB taking the Phoenix to the wire before losing by 8. Then last Saturday, they traveled to Butler who is now 10-1 in conference play and gave the Bulldogs quite a scare. The Crusaders hung tight throughout and actually trailed 52-50 with just over 1:00 minute remaining before falling 59-51. Now they head to take on an over confident Wright State team.
We expect the Raiders to absolutely over look this Valpo team. There are two reasons behind that. The first is the fact that they already beat them handily on the road. That 64-48 win back on January 10th was when Valparaiso was right in the midst of playing its worst basketball of the year. They shot just 33% from the field and Wright State controlled the game. Now at home, don’t expect the Raiders to play with the passion needed here. Secondly, Wright State has a HUGE game on deck @ Butler this Saturday. Those two factors almost guarantee we won’t get an all out effort and focus from the home team. That’s why Valpo stays close throughout and gets the cover.