BEN BURNS
Personal Favorite
I'm laying the points with UCLA.
I respect the Huskies and I successfully played on them when they defeated the Bruins a few weeks ago. However, that was at Washington. With tonight's game being played at Pauley Pavilion, I expect the revenge-minded and highly motivated Bruins to have the advantage. Yes, the Bruins have lost two in a row. However, those games were both on the road and they haven't lost three games in a row since January 2005. In their last game here, the Bruins destroyed Notre Dame, winning by a score of 89-63. Looking at their conference home games and we find that the Bruins beat USC by 16, beat Stanford by 34, beat Cal by 15 and beat Arizona by 23. They're 47-3 their last 50 games here and 21-1 their last 22 against the Huskies here. While the Huskies are 0-5 SU/ATS the last five times that they were road underdogs in the 6.5 to nine range, the Bruins are a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS the last four times that they were home favorites in the -6.5 to -9 range. I expect them to improve on those numbers as they bounce back and continue their homecourt dominance in this series. *Personal Favorite
TV GOM
I'm taking the points with CHARLOTTE.
The Musketeers won big (69-47) when these teams met a few weeks ago. However, that was at Xavier while today's game will be played at Charlotte. That's significant, as Xavier has lost back to back road games while Charlotte has won four of its last five home games, including back to back convincing double-digit victories here, one of them against Dayton. When these clubs faced each other on January 28, the 49ers were banged up and struggling. They've since gotten starting forward An'Juan Wilderness back and are playing with a much higher level of confidence. The play of point guard DiJuan Harris, who has been getting the entire team involved, has really sparked the team of late. Indeed, Harris has a whopping 56 assists in his past five games. While they admittedly haven't had much success against Xavier, the 49'ers have fared very well in the "revenge" role the past few seasons. During that stretch, they've gone a profitable 9-5-1 ATS when attempting to avenge an earlier loss, including a 2-0 ATS mark if that loss was by greater than 20 points. While I respect the Musketeers, I also know that they can be beaten and I won't be shocked to see it happen here. I successfully played against the Musketeers in their loss at Duquesne. The very next night I successfully played on Charlotte over Dayton, so I also know the 49'ers are capable of defeating a quality team. The 49'ers played the Musketeers very tough here last season, losing by two points as 5-point underdogs. Look for them to give their guests all they can handle once again, earning at least another cover. *TV GOM
Annihilator
I'm playing on Boston and Utah to finish UNDER the total.
These teams played on Boston back in mid-December. That game was a bit of a tough beat for those who bet the 'under' just before gametime. That's because the number was bet down and closed at 190.5. The teams played three low-scoring quarters before a 57-point fourth quarter caused the final combined score to finish at 191, half a point above the closing number. The Jazz have been playing some high-scoring games lately. While those results have helped keep today's number generously high, it should be noted that those games were coming against high-scoring and/or defensively-challenged teams like the Kings, Lakers, Warriors and Grizzlies. It should also be noted that the Jazz got Andrei Kirilenko back last game, which is noteworthy as Kirilenko is an excellent defender and his return makes the Jazz stronger on that side of the ball. Counting the 12/15 result as an 'over,' the Celtics have seen 18 of 28 home games finish above the total. However, it's been a different story when the champs have played on the road. In fact, the UNDER is a profitable 19-8 (70%) in their 27 road games. Those games averaged 187.4 points, much lower than the Celtics' totals at home. With tonight's number at or above the 200 mark, that gives us plenty of room to work with. Look for the final combined score to prove much lower that most are expecting. *Annihilator
Rocketman
3* Vancover
3* Chicago
3* Los Angeles
Opposite Action Plays
SAN ANTONIO SPURS
JB Sports
UTAH JAZZ
Lenny Del Genio
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
Tony George
SAN ANTONIO SPURS
Nick Parsons
UTAH JAZZ
Erin Rynning
Playmaker: Spurs
INDIANCOWBOY
4 Unit Play.Take Appalachian State -4 over NC-Greensboro.(POD)
We are 2-1 on the week in college ball as we look to the Southern Conference to help us go 3-1 for the week and get in a sound position to win for our 6th week out of the last 7 in college hoops. The last time these two teams met, it was an exciting game in which NC-Greensboro actually ended up winning on the road as 13.5 Underdogs. It was a huge upset as App. State was taken to the limit as the game went into overtime as the Mountaineers suffered a shocking 83-85 loss. I'm not the one to play favorites many a times, and I'm not the one to play a road favorite at that. But, this game calls for it. I will gladly take a team that was once favored by -13.5, who ended up losing outright on their home floor, who now has revenge and is favored by just 4 points. I believe home court is a bit irrelevant here as App. State will be fired up for this game and will come out of the gates strong and simply believe they are 4 points better than NC-Greensboro given the talent that they have. NC-Greensboro shot 51.7% the last time these two teams met, and I don't see that occurring again. Note that NC-G is a team outside the top 300 and App St. has had success against such teams. For example, when App. State faced Elon they defeated them 77-63 on the road, they defeated Georgia Southern 95-82 on the road who is around a top 300 team as well and defeated Wofford and Furman by 5 who are teams outside the top 300 and top 250 respectively. In short, I think App. State has revenge in their minds, they will have a decent sized crowd there to support them as this is a rivalry game in many ways, this team has balanced scoring as 9 players scored in the last game between these two teams and four were in double figures and I will take the 7 conference win team as compared to the 3 conference win team as App. State has showed more consistency overall this year. The NC-Greensboro Spartans are 0-7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games while the favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings between these two squads.
4 Unit Play.Take Over 200.5 between the Boston Celtics @ Utah Jazz.(POD)
Glad we were able to cash with the Twolves yesterday. Let's cash once again with the over tonight in the limited NBA Card on the NBA docket. You know, I've seen 200 as a total in various books, but I will place the total here at 200.5 so hopefully folks can get a better line. It actually seems like the total is going down a bit and it could be for various reasons. For starters, Boozer is still out till' late February but Okur is now listed as probable. I believe the Jazz will be very game tonight and have a great shot at winning this game outright. This is a dangerous game for the Celtics b/c if they thought they had a tough time with the Lakers and Spurs at home, they will certainly have their hands full against the Utah Jazz who took care of the Lakers - banged up in Utah. Let it be known that the Utah Jazz can beat anyone, absolutely anyone in Utah. Now, this Utah team on the road is a different story as they have lost to the Thunder, Bucks and Warriors. But, at home in Utah, they can defeat anyone. But, why go against the Celtics on Thursday Night Basketball? This team somehow managed to beat New Orleans and Dallas as small chalk on the road - but note, that New Orleans was not at full strength and Dallas did not have Jason Terry in that game. Look for Utah to do very well in this contest - even win. But, more importantly, I will take them to be an active dog and cash the over as I expect Utah to take Boston to the limit here. Utah has revenge - the last time these two teams hooked up the C's won by 9 as the total went to 191. I expect Utah to put up more than a 100 today and at some point, the Celtics to catch up and make a run consequently pushing this total over the posted total. The over is 5-1 between these two teams in Utah and the Over is 4-0 for the Jazz when they face teams with a winning % of greater than 60% at home - meaning once again, active dogs and over the posted total.
Maddux Sports
Basketball
4 units on San Diego +13.5
3 units on UL Monroe +12
3 units on College of Charleston -5Today's Free Pick is Charlotte U +8
Hockey
3 units on Buffalo +140
3 units on St. Louis +120
3 units on Calgary -110
3 units on Atlanta +125
Mean Green Profit Machine
South Alabama - Middle Tennessee UNDER 136
Washington St - Southern California OVER 113.5
Wunderdog
4 units on San Antonio +1 over Detroit
3 units on the Spurs Under 180.5
4 units on Wisconsin -9.5
3 units on St. Bonaventure +3.5
3 units on Oregon State +4
4 units on UCLA Moneyline -395
3 units on UCLA Under 154
Alatex
20* St. Bonny +3
Tennessee Valley Sports
Oreg. ST +4
C-Stars Sports
1000 Units - NHL - Los Angeles/San Jose OVER the total
50 Units Duke minus the points over St. Johns
50 Units Troy minus the points over Florida International
50 Units Charleston/Georgia Souther UNDER the total
Wizard of Odds Guaranteed Selections
COLLEGE HOOPS LATE STEAM BLOWOUT WINNER
Appalachian St -4
Craig Davis
40 Dime - SPURS
10 Dime - WASHINGTON HUSKIES
5 Dime - CALIFORNIA BEARS
SAN ANTONIO SPURS - We’re going to get some line value here today because of the uncertainty of Spurs G Manu Ginobili… and that’s okay with us. Even if Ginobili isn’t able to go, the Spurs are licking their chops at a chance for revenge after Detroit rallied from 10-down back in December, eventually beating the Spurs 89-77 at the AT&T Center. HC Greg Popovich knows all too well that if they continue to falter against teams like the Knicks, they’ll fail to lock up the #1 overall seed in the Western Conference, and that means home court advantage likely goes to the Lakers. Despite the OT loss to the Knicks, the Spurs will still able to score over 100 points and showed an offensive spark many thought was impossible without Ginobili in the lineup. San Antonio comes in with a much needed day of rest where they are 15-8-2 ATS so far this season.
Since the last meeting in December, these two teams have headed in opposite directions with the Spurs winning 26 of their next 35 games while the Pistons have sputtered to a 16-19 record during that same span. And if you think the Pistons are glad to be at home, think again. They are a money-burning 7-21 ATS at home this season and just 2-9 SU (1-10 ATS) at home in the last six weeks, not to mention the fact they are scoring just 89 PPG at home in those same 11 games. Dreadful. And if you think Allen Iverson is going to give them an offensive boost in this one, think again. Iverson, the team’s leading scorer, averages just 17 PPG at the Palace and has suddenly developed a propensity to turn the ball over at the worst possible times.
The Spurs are a respectable 17-10 away from the Alamo, including a 15-11-1 ATS mark in those games. With Ginobili expected not to play in this one, keep an eye on Roger Mason Jr. who hit 7 of 17 shots in their recent loss to the Knicks and finished with 20 pts. and 6 boards. Mason can not only score and rebound, he can also play defense with the best of them. San Antonio takes it personally when someone scores over 100 points against them because they pride themselves on their defense. Check this out. The Spurs last allowed 100+ points in a loss to the Denver Nuggets back in early February. They followed that game with a six-point win in Boston. Before that they suffered a 99-85 setback in Los Angeles (okay, so it’s not 100 but it’s close enough). They followed that loss with a six-point win in Utah. Before that they suffered a 109-87 beatdown in Philly. The following day they limited Chicago to 87 points in a 92-87 win.
My point here is that you don’t often see the Spurs allow 100 points in back-to-back games, and it’s also not often they lose two straight. Not counting the All Star Break, the last time the Spurs lost back-to-back games was in December when they fell apart in New Orleans (90-83) and one day later lost to Orlando (90-78). Something to remember, however, was the fact they were playing on back-to-back nights and we all know how poorly this team plays when asked to play two games in two nights. Vegas is giving us a generous line tonight and I’m here to take full advantage of it.
WASHINGTON HUSKIES - No way I’m buying the revenge card here as Vegas is begging bettors to take the Bruins minus single digits. Washington laid the wood to UCLA back in late-January as a small dog, and since UCLA plays convincingly better at home than on the road, the oddsmakers are hoping you and I will jump on the Bruins. Remember, UCLA has won their last three home games by no less than 16 points and has lost just once at home this season (a 61-58 OT loss to ASU). I’m sorry, though, but I’m not convinced they can withstand the Washington pressure for a full 40 minutes without allowing the surging Huskies to have a few runs in this game. UCLA has lost two straight (granted, they were on the road) and failed to score more than 72 points in either of them while allowing 74 and 84 respectively.
Lorenzo Romar’s young Huskies play with reckless abandon for a full 40 minutes and no lead is ever safe with this “fun-n-gun” bunch. Freshman PG Isaiah Thomas is averaging nearly 17 PPG and as long as he’s dishing out assists and keeping his turnovers down, the Huskies are somewhat unstoppable on offense. Thomas hit seven of his nine shots in Saturday’s 103-84 win over Oregon, scoring 24 points, dishing out 4 assists and recording 4 steals. Talk about an unbelievable head-to-head showdown… how about Thomas vs. Darren Collison. I’d pay the price of admission just to see that matchup. Washington hasn’t been the greatest road team this season, but they do have a couple of very impressive road wins on their resume, including a seven-point win in Stanford and a 13-point win at Arizona State.
One thing to also remember… in the last meeting between these two, G Justin Dentmon (one of the team’s leading scorers) played just 17 minutes due to foul trouble. If he can figure out a way to stay out of foul trouble tonight, it could spell trouble for the Bruins at home. UCLA simply laying too many points for my liking, so I’m inclined to back the road dog here. Huskies rolling recently, covering eight of their last 11 ATS road games vs. a team with a winning record and a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five after scoring 90 or more points in their previous game. Washington has also covered the last four vs. the Bruins, making this an easy selection tonight.
CALIFORNIA - I’m absolutely loving what the Golden Bears are doing right now, winning and covering their last three games against Stanford, Washington and Washington State. Granted, these games were all at home but it’s not like they can’t go on the road and win. Back in January the Bears went into Washington and WSU and came away with impressive wins. They’ve also won at UNLV and Utah earlier in the year. But what’s most impressive is the fact they’re playing so well defensively right now, limiting Stanford to just 25 points in the second half of Saturday’s 82-75 win over Stanford despite trailing 50-36 at halftime. They also kept Washington to 71 points and held the Cougars to 63 points a few nights later.
Oregon, on the other hand, hasn’t found a way to win in the Pac 10 yet and I’m not sure they’re going to be able to solve that puzzle tonight. The Ducks haven’t won a game since an 86-74 win over Long Beach State back on December 29th. That’s right, they’re 0-for-2009, meaning they haven’t won a game in the new year. Though they do play better at home, it’s not like they haven’t been blown out either. USC beat them by 21. Washington beat them by 17. Washington State beat them by 12. Even Arizona recently beat them by 10. The Ducks have no business getting single digits against a team like Cal and this game is going to be over with around 10 minutes remaining in the second half. It’s all Cal, as they win by double digits tonight.
Tommy Ryder
UCLA -8 (Big Play)
UCLA returns home after a poor road trip. The Bruins are a much different team on their home floor. The Huskies are an exciting squad but this is a terrible match up for them because they don't play any defense. UCLA can have trouble scoring against better defensive teams but I expect Collison and the boys to get out and run tonight. I will take the home Bruins who play much better defense and are in dire need of a win to stop the bleeding. UCLA big at home tonight.
John Fina
Thursday Night 2-Team NBA Parlay
Pistons and Jazz
CTO
Confidential Tip-Off
*MICHIGAN over Minnesota...Minnesota has been showing its youth on the road in recent weeks (0-4 vs. the spread last four as a visitor prior to Feb. 14 game at Penn State). Meanwhile, Michigan in a fight to keep its postseason possibilities alive, with HC John Beilein finding more contributors each week to fit in his patient, carefully-crafted offense and often perplexing 1-3-1 zone defense. The Wolverines had top-ranked Connecticut searching for answers 12 days ago, with sweet-shooting frosh Stu Douglass giving every indication he is ready to provide plenty of help to 6-5 G Manny Harris (17.7 ppg, 7.5 rpg) & 6-8 jr. DeShawn Sims (15.1 ppg, 7.7 rpg).
*MICHIGAN 81 - Minnesota 66 RATING - 11