Dr Bob
2 Star Selection
Furman (+12) over CITADEL
The Citadel has won 10 consecutive games and is coming off a 64-46 upset win at Davidson in which Wildcats’ star Stephen Curry did not play. While the Bulldogs have been winning games, they haven’t been winning by big margins and they’ve won just 1 of their 11 home games by 10 points or more (a 14 point win over Western Carolina). The Citadel is 16-5-1 ATS in all games this season, but just 5-5 ATS at home and 0-2 ATS as a home favorite of 7 points or more, so they tend to play to the level of their opposition. Furman is 8-0-1 ATS in their last 9 games and The Citadel applies to a very negative 0-25-3 ATS subset of a 42-104-3 ATS big home favorite letdown situation while also applying to a negative 22-57 ATS situation that plays against double-digit favorites that haven’t played in more than a week. My rating favor the Bulldogs by 11 ½ points, so the line is fair, and I’ll take Furman in a 2-Star Best Bet at +11 points or more.2-Stars at +11 or more.
2 Star Selection
New Orleans (+11 ½) over ARKANSAS LITTLE ROCK
New Orleans is coming off a 16 point loss as a 7 ½ point dog at UL Lafayette while Arkansas Little Rock is coming off an upset win at North Texas. That’s a nice scenario for the underdog New Orleans squad as both these teams play better after a loss and both play better as underdogs. New Orleans is just 8-16 ATS after a win in two seasons under coach Joe Pasternack, but the Privateers are 11-5-1 ATS after a game in which they lost straight up and lost to the spread (5-0-1 ATS this season) while also being better as an underdog (16-12-1 ATS) than they are as a favorite or pick (5-13 ATS). The Privateers are at their best as an underdog after a straight up and ATS loss, going 8-1-1 ATS in that role. Little Rock is just 6-18-2 ATS when favored by 7 points or more (1-8 ATS this season) and the Trojans are just 9-17 ATS after an upset win (1-5 ATS when favored by 7 or more). In addition to the team trends, Little Rock applies to a negative 17-62-3 ATS big home favorite letdown situation. My rating favor Little Rock by 11 ½ points, so the line is fair, and I’ll take New Orleans in a 2-Star Best Bet at +11 points or more and for 3-Stars at +12 or more.2-Stars at +11 or more, 3-Stars at +12 or more.
2 Star Selection
STANFORD (+5 ½) over Ucla
Stanford has lost 7 or their last 9 games, but 5 of those losses have come on the road and the Cardinal have been pretty good at home with wins over NCAA Tournament bound Arizona and Cal. The Cardinal are still winless in conference road games after losing 3 consecutive games away from The Farm, including the last two as favorites at Oregon State and at Oregon, but Stanford plays with a lot more confidence at home and have done a good job of bouncing back from losses on this floor. Stanford is 3-0 straight up and ATS this season at home after a loss, beating Arizona 76-60 after losing to Arizona State, beating Cal 75-69 after losing consecutive road games in the state of Washington, and beating a decent Washington State team 65-54 to end a 3 game losing streak that included a 63-97 loss at UCLA. Stanford has also been good when new coach Johnnie Dawkins has had 3 or more days off in between games to prepare, as the Cardinal are 9-2 ATS this season in such games – including 6-0 ATS at home. That 34 point loss at UCLA actually sets up Stanford in a very good 30-4-1 ATS subset of a 94-30-2 ATS humiliation revenge situation. I know UCLA is coming off an upset loss to Washington State, but the Bruins are just 1-4 ATS in recent years as a road favorite of 4 points or more following a loss and that 94-30-2 ATS situation is 16-2 ATS when the opponent is coming off an upset loss. Stanford also applies to a 51-13-1 ATS strong home court underdog angle. UCLA has struggled away from Pauley Pavilion this season, as the Bruins are just 2-5 straight up away from home against teams of NIT quality or better with the victories coming by just 2 points and by 4 points. Two of those games were against teams of Stanford’s caliber and those games were a 3 point loss on a neutral floor to Michigan and a spread losing 2 point win at Washington State. UCLA simply doesn’t play well defensively, as the Bruins have allowed 48% shooting in Pac-10 games this season and have allowed 50% shooting or higher in each of their past 4 games. Stanford is not a good defensive team either, but the Cardinal are a good offensive team that can take advantage of UCLA’s defensive lapses and keep this game competitive. My ratings using all games this season favor UCLA by just 3 points and using UCLA’s road games against Stanford’s home games would result in an even game. Stanford has struggled in Pac-10 play but using conference games only would favor UCLA by only 6 points and that number would be 3 ½ points if I only used Stanford’s conference home game ratings. The line is too high no matter how I crunch the numbers and the situation favors the Cardinal. I’ll take Stanford in a 2-Star Best Bet at +5 points or more and for 3-Stars at +6 points or more.2-Stars at +5 or more, 3-Stars at +6.
2 Star Selection
SANTA CLARA (+10) over Gonzaga
Santa Clara has under-performed most of the season, but the Broncos have shown that they can compete with good teams with a home win over St. Mary’s (by 18 points) and close losses to UAB, Arizona, and at St. Mary’s (all by 3 points or less). One game against a good team in which the Broncos did not compete was a 53-95 loss at Gonzaga in mid-January, but that loss actually sets up Santa Clara in a 94-30-2 ATS humiliation revenge situation and Gonzaga applies to a negative 86-168-9 ATS road letdown situation. My ratings favor Gonzaga by 9 ½ points, so the line is fair, and I’ll take Santa Clara in a 2-Star Best Bet at +9 points or more and for 3-Stars at +11 or more.2-Stars at +9 or more, 3-Stars at +11.
igz1 sports
4* Florida International +3
4* Wofford +8.5
BIG AL
3* Lasalle
Al DeMarco
5 Dime - Florida International
Big revenge game for Florida International as it dropped a 68-63 decision at Middle Tennessee State January 10 in the season's first meeting, a game in which it trailed by 14 with a little over 10 minutes to play before staging a late road rally. But there's more than payback at stake for the Golden Panthers tonight as they're in the running to host a first-round conference tournament game next week with two games left to play in the regular season, both on their home floor.
Florida International is coming off a 79-66 loss at conference leader Western Kentucky, but don't be alarmed as the Hilltoppers were the team with revenge on Saturday having been upset in Miami back on January 8 as a six-point road favorite in a 81-79 loss. The Golden Panthers have made a habit of pulling off big upsets at home this season as their previous home outing put an end to Troy State's 10-game winning streak as they knocked off the Trojans 87-86, a game where they blew a 13-point lead before hitting a three-pointer to prevail with three seconds to play. FIU also beat Fordham from the Atlantic-10 and Toledo from the Mid-American Conference at home this season while barely losing to South Alabama (57-62) from Conference USA and Cleveland State (58-66) from the Horizon League.
Two Thursdays ago I told you to go against Middle Tennessee State when I backed Troy at home against the Blue Raiders as my College Revenge Game of the Year selection. One of the key reasons was the fact that MTSU simply struggles on the road. It just managed to snap a five-game overall road losing streak and notch its first conference win in six highway outings with six-point win over a 6-23 Florida Atlantic squad on Saturday.
Florida International has gotten a tremendous boost from the return of star freshman forward Freddy Asprilla, who returned from a injury-caused, seven-game absence with back-to-back outings of 16 points and 8 rebounds and 21 points and 15 boards. He had 28 points and 10 rebounds in the Golden Panthers' loss at Middle Tennessee State earlier this season.
Cole Landon
ILLINOIS OVER 119.5
MIAMI FL OVER 142.5
TROY UNDER 151.5
MEMPHIS OVER 138.5
PORTLAND +3.5
IDAHO +4
ARIZONA ST +3.5
HERE U GO BLADE IF U CAN I REALLY LIKE FAIRWAY JAY, BIG AL AND BUDIN I'M SURE YOU'LL DO WHAT U CAN. THANKS
WUNDERDOG
5 UNITS Cavaliers / Rockets Under 186
3 UNITS St. Marys +14
Big Al was already posted ats on page 2 and right above your last post. ;D
BIG AL
At 9 pm, our College Basketball High Roller is on the Michigan Wolverines plus the points over Purdue. Earlier this year, U-M lost to the Boilers in West Lafayette, but now fall into some of my best same-season revenge angles (with records of 39-13 and 31-6 ATS). Also, Michigan catches Purdue in one of its worst roles, as the Boilermakers have covered just 19 of their last 66 away from home, if they are not playing with same-season revenge, and played their previous two games at home. This situation happened once before in conference play this season, and Penn State pulled the upset over Purdue in Happy Valley. This will be Michigan's final home game of the season, and I expect a raucous atmosphere at Crisler Arena. Look for the Wolverines to win big tonight on "Senior Day," and upset Purdue. Take the points.
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Illinois Illini minus the points over Minnesota. We played on the Gophers last Sunday against Northwestern, and Minnesota rewarded us with a 72-45 blowout victory. But that was a perfect spot for Tubby Smith's men, and now it's time to fade the Gophers, as they're an awful bet on the Big 10 road. Overall, Minnesota has lost its last six conference road games ATS, and has covered just 30 of its last 80 road games when not playing with same-season revenge. Earlier this season, Minnesota defeated Illinois 59-36, but prior to that win, the Illini had won 20 STRAIGHT vs. the Gophers. Look for Illinois to avenge that 23-point pasting, and win its 21st game of the last 22 vs. Minnesota. NCAA Roadkill on Illinois.
At 9 pm, our Conference USA Game of the Year is on the UAB Blazers plus the points over Memphis. UAB falls into one of my best systems, which is 81-27 ATS since 1990, and this system plays on certain home dogs with strong home courts (at least 32 wins in last 40 home games) which are matched up against .750 (or better) foes off a straight-up win. Additionally, UAB plays with revenge from a 13-point loss at Memphis, and the Blazers also fall into a same-season revenge angle of mine which is 39-13 ATS this year. Everyone knows about Memphis' dominance in Conference USA games: The Tigers have won 54 straight since falling at UAB two seasons ago. But UAB's working on some impressive streaks as well. The Blazers are 12-0 at home this year, and have won 26 of their last 27 home games, with their only loss by a single point (yes, to these Tigers), 79-78 last February. And Memphis won that game by the scantest of margins, as UAB hit a last-second shot, but replays showed it was released a hair after time expired. This will be another tough game for the 4th-ranked Tigers, as UAB is the top shooting team in Conference USA, and Blazer guard Robert Vaden leads the league in 3-pointers made, while teammate Paul Delaney has the best FG percentage, nationally, among all guards. The Blazers are 19-8 ATS at home since 1993 when playing with same-season revenge, including 10-1 ATS when checking in off a win. UAB's won six straight coming into tonight's game, and an outright upset win won't be a surprise. Take the points.
3* Lasalle
Seabass
100* Cal
50* Ill
30* Akron
20* Wake Forest
20* New Orleans
100* is Washington not Cal
Dr Bob
College Opinions
Youngstown State (+16) over BUTLER
Butler is coming off a satisfying “Bracket Buster” upset win at Davidson, as the Bulldogs continue to play their best against non-conference opponents (16-5-1 ATS under coach Stevens) or when challenged (24-10-3 ATS in all games when favored by 10 or less or getting points). However, Butler tends to relax as a big favorite in Horizon League play and the Bulldogs are just 5-13 ATS as a conference favorite of more than 10 points (2-5 ATS this season). Youngstown State, meanwhile, is 11-4 ATS as a conference underdog of more than 10 points under coach Jerry Slocum, including 4-1 ATS this season and 4-1 ATS against Butler. Butler also applies to a negative 13-52 ATS big home favorite letdown situation and my ratings favor Butler by only 15 points against the improving Penquins who are 5-1 straight up and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games and covered the spread in the only game that they lost recently (a 4 point loss as a 14 ½ point dog at Cleveland State). I’ll lean with the Penguins at +15 or +15 ½ points and I’ll take Youngstown State in a 2-Star Best Bet at +16 points or more.
Cleveland State (-5 ½) over VALPARAISO
Cleveland State lost on Saturday at Wichita State to end a 7 game winning streak, but the loss at Wichita was a bit of a fluke given that the Shockers made 10 of 16 3-point shots rather than the 5 of 16 3-pointers that you’d expect from a team that shoots just 32% from beyond the arc of the season (and Cleveland State allows just 32%). Cleveland State should bounce-back tonight given the Vikings’ 21-6 ATS record as a favorite of 9 points or less and their 7-3 ATS road favorite mark the last two seasons (6-1 with PG D’Aundray Brown in the lineup). Valparaiso hasn’t beaten too many good teams since joining the Horizon league and the Crusaders are just 5-15 straight up in Horizon League games against teams that are 2 games above .500 or better and they’re only 3-12-1 ATS in those games when not an underdog of at least 10 points. My ratings favor Cleveland State by 7 points if you take out the games in which PG Brown missed and I’ll lean with Cleveland State at -6 points or less.
ELON (-4) over Georgia Southern
Georgia Southern nearly blew a 19 point lead on Saturday, but hung on for a 66-63 win as a 1 ½ point favorite against Jacksonville State. That victory ended an 8 game losing streak for the Eagles and I don’t expect them to win again this season. Georgia Southern is missing a couple of their best players due to injury (top player Willie Powers) and suspensions (G Julian Allen, F Trumaine Pearson, and G Antoine Johnson) and Elon, while not a good team, is the better team. Elon, unfortunately, may be without Brett James, who is their best all around player (13.3 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 1.6 steals, and 1.5 blocks) and has missed practice this week with an injured foot. James is a game time decision and I’d prefer not to take the chance that he won’t play. I’d still favor Elon by more than 4 points even if James doesn’t play, but I’ll just lean with the Phoenix tonight rather than make them a Best Bet.
Steven Budin
25 DIME WASHINGTON
DOC
4 units Florida International
3 units Alabama Birmingham
Executive
350% Miami,Fla -3'
300% Wash St -3
250% Xavier -3'
250% So.Cal +4'
250% Arizona St +3'
Helmut
Detroit Over 127
Valpo Over 124.5
MIKE NERI
3* Cleveland Cavs
3* Iillinois
3* Alabama Birmingham
3* Michigan
Teddy June
Private Players Club
St Joes