Scott Rickenbach
Revenge Game of the Year!!
2* (Top Play) Illinois Illini (- 1.5) @ Penn State
We knew we’d get line value in this spot. After all, the Illini are “just” 5-4 on the road this season while the Nittany Lions are a solid 14-3 at home. However, how much of a help will the Bryce Jordan Center even be in this game? The Nittany Lions three home losses this season have come against Temple, Wisconsin, and Michigan State. That’s the same Spartans team that the Illini just went toe to toe with on Sunday as Illinois very nearly got the home win against the best team in the conference. Here, the Illini are looking to avenge their most embarrassing game of the season. Penn State marched into Illinois and handed the Illini an embarrassing 38 to 33 loss last month. It was the first time a team had been held without a free throw - Illinois had no attempts - in the 46 year history of Assembly Hall in Champaign, Illinois. Look for the Illini to do a much better job of creating opportunity on the offensive end in this rematch against the Nittany Lions! Illinois was led by 7’1 center Mike Tisdale when they made their comeback against the Spartans in the second half of Sunday’s game. Tisdale and 6’10 Mike Davis can lead the way in the paint against Penn State. What these big guys so is allow the Illini to stay strong on the perimeter against the Nittany Lions. Penn State really doesn’t have the size/talent inside to do much damage in there and, as the Lions do get some penetration, the Illini are big enough inside that the perimeter defenders don’t have to collapse in to help on defense inside. In other words, Illinois will be able to stay strong against the Nittany Lions outside scoring threats and we just don’t foresee Penn State enjoying much success inside in this game. Illinois needs this win to secure one of the top three seeds in the Big Ten Conference and this is a key heading into the Tournament that starts next week. Heading into the game against Michigan State, the Illini had won five of their last six and the only loss was the ugly one suffered at the hands of Penn State. In other words, it’s definitely payback time and we were impressed with the way the Illini had been playing before losing to the Spartans as well as they solid performance that Illinois gave against Michigan State on Sunday! Big man Tisdale played better than expected in the second half against the Spartans and this gives him some momentum to carry into this crucial game. When he’s focused, Tisdale really can be a factor for the Illini. The Nittany Lions had lost three of four before defeating Illinois on February 18th. Also, Penn State followed up the win over the Illini with a 14 point loss at Ohio State and then an ugly 3-point win over Big Ten cellar dweller Indiana on Saturday. Note that Penn State has only averaged about 53 points per game in their last seven games! As for Illinois, they’ve scored at least 60 points in five of their last seven games. We’re also completely confident in Illinois Coach Bruce Weber and his ability to make the proper adjustments against Penn State in this rematch. Keep in mind the Illini did have a 9 point lead with about 10 minutes to go in that game last month. They saw that whittled away and then ended up losing ugly and the response to that will be a strong one today! The Illini have senior leadership and they are well aware of what’s at stake here. It’s Penn State that can overtake them for earning one of the top three spots in the Big Ten so the Nittany Lions are certainly not without motivation too. However, in their last three games the Nittany Lions have gone cold from 3-point land. They’ve made just 19 of 63 three-pointers and that 30% mark is bad news against an Illini team that is unlikely to let Penn State get much scoring from anywhere else on the floor. The Illini will seal things off on the inside and the Lions will continue to struggle from beyond the arc. The result will be a very solid road win! Play Illinois minus the points as a Top Play selection.
1* Temple
1* Drake
RAS
LB St. -2 1.5 Units
Cal Riverside +6.5 1 Unit
DAVE MALINSKY
4* Mavericks/Hornets Under 196
4* Denver -6
4* Bowling Green +8.5
4* Arizona State -9.5
Wayne Root
Chairman- California
Millionaire- UCLA
Insiders Circle- Tennessee
Steven Budin CEO
THURSDAY'S PICK 25 DIME
SOUTH CAROLINA
VERNON CROY
NBA TNT Smash
Portland Trail Blazers vs. Denver Nuggets
Take Denver -5.5
This pick falls into one of my top NBA systems and the Nuggets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games when playing a team that has a losing record on the road. Portland is just 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games as a road dog of +5.0 to +10.5 points and they are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games when playing with 0 days rest. Denver looks to avenge their 9 point Dec.23 road loss to the Trail Blazers and they are 26-7-1 ATS in their last 34 games when favored by -5.0 to -10.5 points. Denver is 23-9-1 ATS in their last 33 games against the Trail Blazers and I look for them to bounce back with a strong outing at home after dropping 2 straight road games. Take Denver who beat the Lakers by 11 points in their last home game as my NBA TNT Smash.
Jake Timlin
300♦ South Carolina Gamecocks
I see nothing but revenge for the Gamecocks tonight at home.
You see thanks to being a great home team at 16-1 straight up and doing so by an average of 15 points per game the Gamecocks are the only choice tonight in the SEC. After all given that revenge will be on the Gamecocks mind after losing by 3 points at Knoxville early this season after rallying from 14 points down at the half I look for South Carolina to put two good haves together tonight.
Meanwhile, for Tennessee given their 3-7 ATS record away from Knoxville this season it’s tough to imagine them winning on the road tonight against a better team in South Carolina.
Flat out, if not for a bad first half in the first meeting South Carolina would be eyeing a season sweep, but thanks to being at home tonight they will settle for the revenge.
All South Carolina minus the points!
Mark Franco
Dallas at New Orleans
Play: New Orleans -6
The Mavericks were 0-5 last season in New Orleans, including three losses in a first-round playoff series.
The Hornets won their only previous meeting with the Mavericks this season, outscoring them 25-18 in the fourth quarter to take a 104-97 road victory. Point guard Chris Paul had 33 points, 11 assists, 10 rebounds and seven steals for his second consecutive triple-double against Dallas.
Dallas is off a big win vs. the Spurs last night and does not play well in their second of back-to-back nights.
MTi Sports
Portland at Denver
Play: Denver -7
The Blazers are off a come-from-behind win last night over the Pacers at home. Not only were they outshot 52.8% to 45.2%, they were out-rebounded 43-31 as well! Portland was out-scored in the first, second and third quarters before out-scoring the Pacers 29-19 in the fourth to win 107-105. They owe the victory to the refs, as the Blazers outscored the Pacers 27-12 from the free-throw line. Portland is in a bad spot to cover here. They are 0-16 ATS on the road off a win as a favorite in which they trailed at the end of the third and out-scored their opponent by more than 5 points in the fourth.In addition, the Blazers are 0-9 ATS (-8.7 ppg) as a road dog with at most one day of rest after a game in which less than 40% of their baskets were assisted, 0-5 ATS (-7.0 ppgas a dog with no rest after a game at home in which they allowed at least 50% from the field and 0-5 ATS (-7.6 ppg) on the road with no rest after a win in which they made fewer baskets than their opponent.The Nuggets return home from an 0-2 road trip in which Carmelo Anthony was suspended by the team for the final game, which was in Detroit. We expect the Nuggets to capitalize on the rest advantage here. Denver is a perfect 9-0 ATS at home with less than two days rest when they are off a loss as a dog in which they committed fewer than ten turnovers.Lay the points.
MTi’s FORECAST: DENVER 109 Portland 95
Sportsbetcapping
Tennesee +2 (7X Play)
ATS Locks Club
6 units Wichita state
5 units Arizona
4 units Xavier
Opposite Action Plays
SOUTH CAROLINA
JB Sports
DENVER NUGGETS
Rocketman
PHOENIX COYOTES
Lenny Del Genio
CS Northridge/UC Davis Under