Lenny Del Genio
A-10 Tourney Game of the Year:
Richmond Spiders +4
DAVE MALINSKY
4* Lakers +2.5
6* Villanova -2
4* Baylor Kansas Under 146.5
4* Marylan/NCstate Under 142
4* Bowling Green -1
4* Missouri -12
6* Washington -5.5
5* USC Pk
Dr.Cogyle
10* on Bos/Ott over 5.5
8* on Fla/Buf over 5.5
8* on Min/Col UNDER 5.5
VIP
Arizona St
Big Daddy
8* Nevada
JB Sports
PHOENIX SUNS
Tony George
TEXAS TECH
Opposite Action Plays
SAN ANTONIO SPURS
Lenny Del Genio
NC STATE
Rocketman
OHIO
Nick Parsons
CALIFORNIA
Kelso
50 unit Wash St +8.5
INDIAN COWBOY
4 Unit Play. Take Indiana +9 over Penn State
I know, hold your nose. But, we took two ugly dogs yesterday in Depaul +9.5 and Southern Methodist +11 and they both cashed for us, so let's take a dog that we are getting almost that many points in Indiana. Yes, Indiana is horrible, pathetic, blah, blah, blah. But, do you think the regular season every matters worth of diddly in this conference tournament? Heck, Depaul went 0-16 in conference tourney games - 0-16! And, yet this team defeated Georgetown and was giving all Providence can handle from start to finish. Indiana actually defeated Iowa at home and covered countless games at home. This game is played in Indianapolis for starters, Indiana lost to Penn State by just 3 points on the road and 10 points at home. Believe it or not, Indiana matches up well with Penn State even if is their scrubs and essentially non-scholarship players. If you are Penn State, how do you get your boys up for this first round game against the Hoosiers? Indiana comes into this game getting trounced by 24 to Wisconsin on the road, they face a team that they lost to at home by 10, then went on the road to just lose by 3, they are catching 9 points in a total of 123, and this is the same Penn State team that lost in double-overtime to Iowa and 6 conference games on the road. Penn State is used to playing the role of the spoiler, but now, they are favored and this is a new role for them that they will get used to. Let's take the points as Indiana should be game from start to finish and they will get some home cooking calls in our favor as well.
4 Unit Play. Take NC State +1.5 over Maryland
This is a gutsy call. I can dig it. But, I like it here as the ACC Tourney is held in Atlanta and places this game on a neutral footing. I am also no fan of Maryland as I think they are over-rated frankly. I don't believe the ACC is overrated - I just think Maryland is overrated. The terps are similar to when the Cavs sit around and watch Lebron go to work at times when they sit around and Vasquez does all the work. NC State is a team that plays the great concept of "team basketball". Remember, this team beat NC State by 11 on the road earlier this year so this is a revenge game for NC State. I can easily see Maryland looking over the shoulder of NC State to their next opponent and they just might get their head caught in some headlights. Folks, I think Maryland is going to be in some serious trouble today along with Boston College for that matter. Remember 70% of the public loves Maryland here and why? This is not a home game for them. NC State has had luck on this floor defeating Georgia Tech 21, this team beat Wake at home, beat Virginia and Boston College at home as well. Heck, they even beat Miami of Florida at home as well. No, this team is not at home, but I am stating this to say, that this team has potential and when they play together, they can certainly accomplish a lot. I believe the line is revealing here and that Maryland is in for a big awakening and exit in the first round when all is said and done. The thing with Maryland is that when they stink, they stink bad such as their 41 point loss to Duke and 29 point loss to Clemson. NC State comes in with a more spirited attitude and takes the cake here today in Hotlanta.
4 Unit Play. Take Virginia +4.5 over Boston College
Another upset in the making today. Let me ask you something - what has Boston College done on the road this year? BC lost to NC State by 5, lost to Miami of Florida by 11 and although this team is a 21 win team, they are in for trouble here today. The last time these two teams played, I don't believe Virginia was playing its best basketball when they lost to BC at home by 10. This Cavalier team remembers that loss when these two lock horns again today. Virginia shoots 74.5% from the free throw line and if they can attack the basket, they will win this game as they have some solid spot up 3-point shooters. I understand that this team was 4-12 this year in conference play - but I also understand that this team went 3-4 to close out the year, and they can certainly call on the barons of an upset here as if Virginia gets going early, BC can get rattled easily. I just don't feel BC is playing their best basketball heading into the tournament as this team barely defeated Tech at home by 1 point and I think they are going to be deer caught in headlights as well as I don't see BC getting "up" for this game as well. Don't be surprised to see both Virginia and NC State make the upset today against their respective opponents. I have a feelingg the public simply gets burned today with BC as they did with Texas A&M yesterday. The Cavaliers are 5-0-2 ATS as underdogs in their last 7 neutral site games and BC is just 1-7 ATS against teams with a SU (straight up) losing record as this team just simply does not "get-up" for weaker teams.
4 Unit Play. Take the Phoenix Suns +4.5 over the Cleveland Cavaliers
We are 2-1 on the week as roll into Sunday. Let's cash the Thursday ticket with the Phoenix Suns at home against the Cleveland Cavaliers. The public for the most part should love the Cavs here, and we will gladly go the other way. Remember, we took the Clippers just on Tuesday against the Cavs and the fact they won that game by coming back makes me like this pick even more. After all, you never want to go against a Cavs team that comes off a loss - but it is ok to go against a Cavs team that comes off a win in which they were fortunate. This reduces the "edge" that this team has from coming off a loss. Speaking of edge, the Phoenix Suns will have some tonight against the Cavs. From the fact that this team has lost five straight, returned home from a four game road swing in which they lost all four SU, including a home loss against Dallas, this team will be more than fired up to go against Lebron and company. There are certain situations when the Phoenix Suns will make sense and there are certain situations when they step up. This is one such situation. This game is on TNT, which is renowned for Underdogs covering and the Suns will use this game as a stepping stone to attempt to make a run out West. The Suns are the same team that beat the Lakers at home with no Amare winning 118-111 and there are just times when they step up. This will be one of those games as with the likes of Nash, O'Neal, Richardson, Hill, Barnes and Barbosa, the Suns can get this done. Remember, this was the exact same line when the Suns hosted the Lakers and won Outright as a small home dog as well and they desperately need a win once again and will step up on TNT to do so as a likely Outright Winner.
STU FEINER
2500 Dime High Roller Western Conference Game of the Year
L.A. Lakers (194') at San Antonio Spurs (-3)
SAN ANTONIO SPURS -3
Kelso
50 unit Wash St +8.5
10 units Maryland
10 units Penn State
Drew Gordon
1. 200,000♦ Maryland
2. 50,000♦ California
3. 50,000♦ Virginia
1. Maryland- This isn't just a must-win for the Terrapins, this is a must-win for revered coach Gary Williams, who's facing an incresingly vocal chorus of critics that are calling for the long-time architect of Maryland basketball to call it a day. I don't care on what side of the fence you lie on, but fact remains, everyone from the coaching staff on down to the water boy knows Maryland MUST WIN this game.
Besdies the obvious motivational factor mentioned above, the Terps got lucky to get such a favorable match up in this contest, because truth be told, the Wolf Pack is just as road weary (if not worse), than Maryland. Both teams struggled on the road this season, but unlike NC State, who lost its only neutral court game this season to Davidson, Maryland is 2-2 in those contests this year, including a big-time upset win over Michigan State! Any 'Capper worth his salt will tell you that you have to examine road play when considering these neutral court games, and in this case, the edge goes to Maryland.
Remember guys, these two teams played just under two weeks ago, with the Terps taking it to the Wolf Pack 71-60, in Raleigh no less! In that contest, Terps star G Greivis Vasquez dominated the Wolf Pack defense, scoring 33 points, dishing out 5 assists, and committing only 1 turnover! Terrapin-backers will tell you, when Vasquez plays well, Maryland usually wins, and I see more of the same in this one! In fact, most of the Maryland backcourt played well, as Hayes chipped in 9 points and 4 assists, and Tucker 7 points! In other words, Maryland will win win the battle of the guards, while Maryland forwards Milbourne and Neal equalize the Wolf Pack's slight edge down-low.
Finally, while NC State had a solid run going in late January thru mid-February, winning against Miami-Florida and Wake Forest to name a few, this team has tailed off since then. Barely beating Virginia, losing at Wake, losing to Maryland at home, a surprise win against un-motivated Boston College team, followed by a loss at Miami... Not exactly consistent basketball, and I expect to see more of that tonight. Maryland is the better, more motivated team in this contest, and while the game will be relatively close, the Terrapins get the solid win & cover, quieting their critics for at least one more day!
Take Maryland over NC State as your top-rated play of the day.
2. California- Is Southern Cal's modest 2-game win streak supposed to make me forget about their absolutely horrendous month of February? Trojans lost 6 of 7 games last month (2-5 ATS), including some pretty questionable home losses (see Washington State), and some pretty ugly road effort (see at Stanford). So what if they beat sorry-ass Oregon and Oregon State in back-to-back home games?! You know recent play is a HUGE factor when 'capping conference tourney games, and clearly Southern Cal has NOT been playing well.
True, the Bears have lost 3 of their last 5 games, but I don't consider losses to the cream of the PAC-10 crop (UCLA and at Arizona State) too disheartening. True, their road loss at Oregon State was disappointing, but who did they beat in the very next game? That's right, Southern Cal, in their wild 81-78 home win in OT back on February 26th! Much like that game, I expect this game will be highly competitive, but Cal simply has too much firepower in the end.
Speaking of firepower, its no secret guard play is the key to tourney play, you've heard it repeated again and again in the media, and for once, they're dead-on. The backcourt duo of Randle and Christopher (29 points in last meeting) is the key to this contest, because clearly they are the better guard duo. If not for USC's Daniel Hackett getting hot in their last meeting, that game would've never been close, and I suspect the Trojans backcourt will get out-played even worse tonight.
True, the Bears have no answer for Taj Gibson, but with Robertson playing really well of late (avergaing 19 ppg L3 games), and Boykin and Wilkes anchoring the paint, Cal has more than enough frontcourt play to at least equalize USC's edge down-low. However, on the flip side, you can rest-assured the Trojans have no way of equalizing Randle and Christopher.
Finally, one strong trend has emerged over the course of the last 8 meetings between these two schools... The favorite is a solid 6-2 ATS over that span! Once again, we expect a very competitive contest here, but the edge in backcourt is the difference here, as when it comes down to it, the Bears have the playmakers necessary to win a tight contest.
Take California over Southern Cal in this college hoops match up.
3. Virginia- I don't expect many people to agree with this play, but I could care less. Sometimes when a line on a contest is THIS fishy, you have to go with your first instict, which is to avoid the incredible trap set by Vegas in this match up. But let's dig a little deeper...
So you tell me why a team that won 10 games this season, including just ONE on the road, is only a relatively slight underdog against a 21-win rock-solid Boston College team? You may not like the answer, but oddsmakers know what they're doing, and to think they are going to give us a "hand out" in this contest is totally ridiculous. With a huge majority of the betting public on the Eagles in this spot, I simly cannot allow my clients to fall prey to this trap.
So, how do the Cavaliers do it? Well, it comes down to a couple key match ups, because we know BC's Tyrese Rice and Virginia's Sylven Landesberg will play well, but after that it comes down to players like G Mamadi Diane, who's been great when given minutes. Note, he had a real breakout in his last contest versus Maryland, playing 34 minutes, scoring 23 points, and finally taking some of the heat off of Landesberg! He's a senior, and with his time running VERY short, look for Diane to relish in his extended role tonight.
Herein lies the problem for Boston College, because in their last meeting - an 80-70 Eagles road win and cover - the only player they had to worry about was Landesberg, who dropped 32 points on BC in that contest. ****, Diane played only 4 minutes, and the rest of Virginia's guards played awful (Jones & Baker combined to go 4 of 22 overall)! Look for a much more focused effort tonight from a Cavaliers team that's playing for all the marbles tonight.
Finally, I know full well the Cavaliers were terrible on the road this season, going 1-9 SU, BUT they were not a particularly bad bet, going 6-4 ATS away over that span! Add in the fact that Boston College's defense on the road is just as bad as the Cavaliers (both teams allow about 75 ppg away), and don't tell me the Eagles are a "lock" here, because they're not. In the end, we're making this a small play, but rest-assured, following the herd on Boston College is a mistake here, as Virginia will grab the cash tonight.
Take Virginia plus the points over Boston College in this college hoops match up
Tom Freese
MEMPHIS
LARRY NESS
Tourney Underdog Shocker
Gary Williams is in his 20th season coaching his alma mater. He led the Terps to the Final 4 in 2001 (lost to Duke) and returned in 2002, this time winning the national championship by beating Indiana, 64-52. However, those "glory years' seem decades ago. That's what three NIT appearances in a four-year stretch will do. Some people argue that Maryland's a "bubble team" this year but I'm not one of them. The Terps are just 18-12 overall, including a losing record in the ACC (7-9). They did upset North Carolina at College Park on Feb 21 but the Terps lost the first meeting to the Tar Heels 108-91 in Chapel Hill, went 0-2 vs Duke plus lost to both Wake and Clemson. The Terps capped their regular season with a 68-63 loss at 10-17 Virginia (4-12 in the ACC). Just what about that record spells "at-large?" The Terps did beat tonight's opponent (NC State) in Raleigh 71-60, but don't expect 6-6 swingman Vazquez (17.2-5.4-4.8) to go for 33 points like he did in that game. In fact, NC State's lineup should be a tough one for Maryland to handle. Head coach Sidney Lowe is now going with a "big" lineup and Maryland's best two inside players are a pair of 6-7 forwards, Milbourne (12.2-4.2) and Neal (8.2-4.3). NC State's 6-6 swingman Fells (11.6-3.5) missed the team's finale with a groin injury but he's listed as probable for this game. PG Gonzalez (6.7-3.3 APG) joins him in the backcourt and as previously stated, Lowe starts the 6-9 Costner (13.6-6.1), the 6-9 McCauley (12.4-7.8) and the 6-8 Smith (10.2-4.5) across his frontline. The 6-9 Horner (6.2-3.9) is also getting more time, as he's averaged 9.7 PPG over NC St's last seven games. By game's end, Milbourne and Neal will really be missing the graduated Gist (15.9-7.9) and Osby (11.5-6.5), both around 6-8 or 6-9, from LY's team. Whatever hopes the Terps had of grabbing an at-large bid will disappear here, as the Wolfpack do what Lowe's former coach Jimmy V made famous. That is, "survive and advance!" Tourney Underdog Shocker on NC State (7*).
Las Vegas Insider
It's hard to argue against the job first-year head coach Din Verlin has done at Idaho. The Vandals had won a total of 24 games the previous four years but this season, Verlin has led them to a winning conference mark (9-7), as well as a 16-14 overall record. I guess a coach learns a thing or two sitting beside Stew Morrill for 15 years (first at Colorado St and then at Utah State). The team's best player is 6-2 Washington State transfer Mac Hopson, who has averaged 16.6 PPG, 5.0 RPG and 5.8 APG. Former CC player Watson (10.5-3.6) plus two returning seniors, Morris (6.2) and Brown (4.8), round out the team's backcourt. Up front is the 6-10 Jefferson (9.1-4.4) at center, surrounded by 6-7 Brazilian-import de Souza (8.6) and the 6-6 Wiley (8.4-5.6). What's NOT to like about this 'story?' The answer is NOTHING but the Vandals drew a bad opponent in this game. La Tech went just 14-17 overall (6-10 in the WAC) but the Bulldogs have really played well down the stretch. The team lost 6-10 Cooper (11.7-7.10 in mid-January but instead of that hurting the team, the team's gotten better. Kyle Gibson (13.0-3.4) and Guyton (11.9-3.3) are a solid backcourt duo, with Ashaolu (5.0-4.0) and Loe (4.6) adding depth. The 6-10 Rolle (12.0-7.3) has picked up the slack after Cooper's loss, while the 6-5 Brandon Gibson (6.2) and the 6-8 Jackson (5.2-3.7) complete the main group of contributors. The Bulldogs won at Nevada on Feb 5, 78-75 (as 13.5-point underdogs) and then "hung tough" at Utah State on Feb 7, losing by just eight points (as a 17-point underdog). Those two ATS wins began a seven-game ATS winning streak over an eight-game stretch, with the Bulldogs going 6-2 SU (included a non-lined win). That ATS winning streak came to an end in the team's last regular season game, a 66-58 loss at Idaho. The LAST team Idaho wants to see again is La Tech (other than Utah St, of course) and I expect the Bulldogs to end Don Verlin's very successful first-season at Idaho, tonight in Reno (on a bad note!). Las Vegas Insider on La Tech (8*).
Maddux Sports
Hockey
3 units on Florida +115
3 units on Washington +105
3 units on NY Islanders +235
3 units on Carolina +115
3 units on Atlanta +145
Steve Liebman
Utah vs. TCU
Utah is one of three teams in the Mountain West Conference to finish with a 12-4 league record. Utah is a very accurate shooting team and is led by Luke Newill. Newill was named the MWC Player of the Year AND the MWC Defensive Player of the Year. Look for him to lead the Utes to a double-digit win tonight.
Play: Utah -9.5 4.5 units
Harvey Slavin
Nashville Predators vs. New York Rangers
The Rangers are last in the East with 167 goals scored this season and have been shut out 7 times. Nashville has struggled in its last couple of games but is still 6-1-2 in its last 9 outings. The Predators are in a tight playoff race right now and will use the home ice advantage over a Ranger team who has a losing road record to get this much needed win.
Play: Nashville Predators -120 3 units
Adam Meyer
Rhode Island vs. Duquesne
While both teams can score the ball Rhode Island plays better defense against the 3-point shot. The Rams finished 10-2 in their last 12 games. Look for them to outscore the Dukes and keep down Duquesne’s three-point opportunities.
Play: Rhode Island -2.5 4.5 units
Boston College vs. Virginia
BC is clearly the better team here and the small line is a “gift” to bettors tonight. Virginia is the 11th seed in the ACC tournament and has won only 10 games all year. BC has won 21 games and is led by Tyrece Rice who score 17.4 PPG. Rice and his teammates have the experience and ability to beat a less-than-mediocre Cavaliers team tonight.
Play: Boston College -4 4.5 units