Tony George
NORTHERN IOWA
Nick Parsons
CALIFORNIA
Adam Meyer
Clemson (-4.5 Points) vs. Michigan
Clemson has a distinct advantage at the guard position as both Michigan starters are freshmen. Clemson also boasts the best big man in this game, Trevor Booker, who averages 15.3 ppg and almost 10 rpg. That inside play of Booker’s and steadier guard play down the stretch gives Clemson a nice win tonight.
Play: Clemson (-4.5 Points)
Roy Jackson
Minnesota (+5 Points) vs. Texas
As their records indicate, these two teams are evenly matched. Clearly strong defense is what has given the Golden Gophers their success this season. They give up only 61.1 PPG . While Texas can put up points on the board, look for Minnesota head coach, Tubby Smith, a wily veteran, to devise a defense to keep Texas stars A.J. Abrams and Damion James in check tonight.
Play: Minnesota (+5 Points)
Steve Liebman
Villanova (-16 Points) vs. American
While American has a nice 24-7 record it certainly is against MUCH weaker opposition than Villanova. They have been trounced by at least 24 points by both Georgetown and Oklahoma. Villanova is a very good and experienced team that has a chance to go deep into the March Madness Tournament. Look for Scotty Reynolds and company to win this one by at least 20 points. Villanova is much better than American in every aspect of the game.
Play: Villanova (-16 Points)
Eddie Mush
4* VCU +7.5
4* WKU +5
6* MD +1.5
6* Lakers -13
8* Wash -6
10* Mich +5
Dr Canada
Canadiens over 5.5
Oilers over 5.5
SPORTS UNLIMITED
5* Washington
4* California
3* BYU
Alatex
BYU
Gregg Price
10* Minnesota
5* Rhode Island
5* Michigan
4* Northern Iowa
4* American
4* UCLA
Donnie Black
Port/Cleve Under 187
Fairway Jay
BYU
NSA
20* BYU -2.5
20* California -1.5
20* No Iowa +8.5
10* LSU -1.5
10* Washington -6Opinions
North Carolina -25
Connecticut -20.5
Memphis -19.5
LATE GAMES
20* UCLA -7.5
20* Morgan St +16.5
10* Western Kentucky +5
10* Akron +13.5
10* Minnesota +5
Opinions
Villanova -16.5
Binghamton +20.5
Michigan +5
Rocketman
VILLANOVA
4* UNC
3* Villa
Opin Tex and Akron
Robert Ferringo
3-Unit Play. Take #710 Texas (-4) over Minnesota
You want to talk about backing into the NCAA Tournament. I honestly and truly have no idea what Minnesota is doing in this tournament. I think they are an awful team and other than one fluke win over Louisville back in mid-December this team has done absolutely nothing to justify its berth. The Gophers have lost seven of their last 11 games and 9 of their last 14. They did not beat Purdue, Michigan State, or Michigan in the Big 10 this year, and their only wins in conference after Jan. 16 were against Indiana (twice), Northwestern (twice), and Wisconsin and Illinois with both games at The Barn. Minnesota has been pathetic on the road this year and when I look at this team I just don’t see it.
Say what you will about Texas – about how they underachieved this year and about how overrated they are – but they have wins against Villanova, UCLA and at Wisconsin. They also played Michigan State much, much tighter than Minnesota did in any of its three attempts. The core of this Longhorns squad has played in six NCAA Tournament games over the last two years and Rick Barnes has won at least one game (and coached in 10) in the tourney in each of the past three seasons. This Texas team has a shot at redemption here. They have a shot to salvage a disappointing year. And that makes them dangerous. Texas’s weakness is it’s point guard situation. But the Gophers don’t have the guards to really exploit Texas’ shaky backcourt. A.J. Abrams is easily the best player on the floor and I just think that Texas’ big men are simply better than Minnesota’s inexperienced group. Texas has four double-digit scorers to Minnesota’s one and we’ve seen the Tubby Smith NCAA Flameout before (that is why he got bounced from Kentucky).
2.5-Unit Play. Take #734 Washington (-6) over Mississippi State
This play falls into the exact same systems that I used last year to score a nice top play winner with Xavier in the first round of last year’s tournament. The crux of the system is on two things: 1) a top seeded team that was upset in its conference tournament, and 2) an underdog that just made a run and won its conference tournament. Last year it was Xavier, which got bounced early out of the A-10 tournament, meeting the SEC Cinderella Georgia. This year we have a Huskies team that has played very strong basketball most of the year going up against another SEC underdog.
No. 4 seeds that are off a straight-up loss are 26-10 ATS in their first round game. If they are off a loss and a favorite of 9.0 or less they are a solid 16-3 ATS. Further, underdogs that are getting 3.0 or more points that are coming off a win as an underdog of 6.0 or more are a terrible 21-42 ATS in their first round game. Now, the line on the Miss. State game against Tennessee closed at 5.5. But I think that the reasoning is sound and that it fits this system.
Next, Washington has not been a great road team over the last few years. But they are playing in nearby Portland, which is a long way from SEC country for Mississippi State. I think that the Huskies are underrated and coming from an underrated Pac-10 this season. I believe that their experience and their balanced scoring will lead the way, and I look for Jon Brockman to really go at Jarvis Varnardo. Brockman has been getting it done for four years against NBA-caliber forwards and centers in the Pac-10 so he isn’t going to be scared of Varnardo. I like the Huskies to pull through late after getting behind early, and I like them to send home the SEC reps from Mississippi State with an 11-point loss.
2.5-Unit Play. Take #730 Clemson (-5) over Michigan (
I really think right now that people are not giving this Clemson team enough credit. This Tigers team has proven itself against some of the top teams in the country over the last two seasons. And right now they have a Big 10 team teed up in their sites and I think that they could roll in this one. I know that Michigan is a “sexy” sleeper pick right now but I’m not buying this young team making many waves.
Ever hear of the ACC-Big 10 shootout? Who ALWAYS dominates that series? The ACC, right? Well why should we expect it to be any difference here. Clemson is 5-1 ATS in its last six games against the Big 10 while Michigan is 1-5 ATS against the ACC. This one is about relative conference strength and I don’t think there is any doubt that there is better basketball being played in the ACC. The Tigers won at Illinois this year while Michigan really floundered away from home – including a five-point loss at Maryland and a 15-point loss against Duke – while compiling just a 6-11 road/neutral record.
The Tigers are more athletic and – and this is key – I like their guard play significantly more than I like Michigan’s. The Wolverines enter the tournament just 7-10 since mid-January. And much like Minnesota their wins were against Northwestern (twice), Minnesota (twice) and then a couple home wins. That’s not at all impressive. Clemson is just 1-4 in its last five games. But since mid January five of their eight losses have come to North Carolina, Wake Forest and Florida State. Not too shabby. I love Trevor Booker and Michigan doesn’t have anyone to matchup with him on the inside. And although Manny Harris can be explosive I think Clemson will key on him and be able to hold him down a bit. And Clemson has two guys who are just as explosive as Harris in the backcourt in K.C. Rivers and Terrence Oglesby.
2.5-Unit Play. Take #726 California (-1.5) over Maryland
I really feel like the Pac-10 is getting no love from the public and certainly no respect from the NCAA selection committee. I believe that this is a very dangerous Cal team and I think that if they can get out of this first round game they are a team that can make some serious noise. I think Mike Montgomery has this team pointed very securely in the right direction and that the talent that this team has in the backcourt is as good as anything you can find in the country.
Maryland has been playing very good ball to close the season. But other than a stunning overtime win at home against North Carolina and a neutral site win over shaky-as-hell Wake Forest, I can’t say that I have seen many quality wins on the Terps’ schedule over the last month-plus. In fact, heading into the ACC Tournament this team was just 6-9 in its last 15 games with the wins coming mostly at home (Miami, UVA, Va. Tech) or at the expense of North Carolina State. That doesn’t impress me. And I also wonder if the Terps expelled so much energy just to get to the Big Dance if they have anything left.
Cal is the No. 1 3-point shooting team in the country. And those boys are legit on the perimeter. If you can knock down shots – and Cal runs a great offense – then you can win games in the NCAA Tournament. Cal won at Washington. They won at Arizona. They won at Utah and at UNLV. Those are no-joke road wins. The Terps were just 4-8 in road/neutral games prior to their tourney. I love Jerome Randle. And I don’t think that Maryland has the size underneath to take advantage of the Bears’ weakness. Cal has better scoring differential, shooting and assist-to-turnover ratio.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #721 UCLA (-7.5) over VCU
1-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 137.0 UCLA vs. VCU
You want to talk about disrespected – how about the team that’s made three straight Final Fours and coming one game short of another piece of the Pac-10 title getting a No. 6 seed! That’s ridiculous! And what’s worse, Ben Howland and his team knows all about it. Howland’s numbers when he has extra time to prepare are so ridiculous that I’m not even going to state them here. This team is way underseeded and they are playing a big public underdog. Everyone loves VCU for what it did to Duke a few years ago and they know all about Eric Maynor. But that was a soft Blue Devils team and there is nothing soft about this Bruins club. They are known for their rugged defense and who do you think they are going to be keying on? And what is VCU going to do when Darren Collison, one of the most accomplished point guards in college over the last 30 years, locks him up? UCLA has the size inside to really pound VCU on the boards and on the interior. Further, teams off back-to-back SU and ATS wins are notoriously poor performers in the first round. Add on top of that the fact that VCU was not great on the road in the nonconference portion of the schedule and the fact that UCLA has absolutely destroyed some opponents this year – 16 wins of 15 or more points – and I think that the Bruins can take care of business.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #723 Cal-Northridge (+20.5) over Memphis
1-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 132.0 Cal-Northridge vs. Memphis
This is a total system play. The other thing that I like is that Memphis is so “underrated” and “disrespected” by the selection committee and the general public that they are overrated and given too much respect. This team showed at home against Tulane in the conference tournament that they have a hard time getting up for weaker opponents that they know they are better than. Especially earlier in the day. It’s 11:30 a.m. local time. You think Memphis is going to have it’s game face on? I don’t. Throw on the fact that this game is the only one on today’s card where the public is banging one team at more than 75 percent action and we’re in business.
No. 2 seeds favored by more than 18 points are just 16-25-1 ATS in their last 42 games, and if that favorite is coming off back-to-back ATS wins they are just 53-90 ATS. Playing against No. 2 seeds that covered the spread in their last game by more than 10 points is a solid 10-5-1 ATS angle and add on top of that the fact that No. 2 seeds have been the biggest ATS underachievers, especially in Round 1, over the last 10 years and we have ourselves a play. Just close your eyes and hope for the best! It’s not going to be pretty, but the numbers suggest that we’re in a decent spot.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #707 Binghamton (+22) over Duke
No. 2 seeds have been one of the weakest ATS seeds in the tournament over the last 10 years so it behooves us to play against them almost blindly. Binghamton features a lot of transfers from other larger schools and you know that they will be way, way up for this game to get a crack at the Blue Devils. Duke hasn’t covered a first round game in several seasons and could be due for a slight letdown after their sweet ACC Tournament run. No. 2 seeds favored by 18 or more points are just 16-25-1 ATS over the last several years. And I understand that no one is going to confuse Binghamton for an ACC school. But routs of Maryland and Virginia near the end of January were the only wins of 20 or more points for this Duke team since the first of the year. This club won’t have the benefit of the Cameron Crazies. And after their weak showings in the first rounds of the last two tournaments we have to fade the Blue Devils on principle until they prove that they will cover these fat lines.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #711 Radford (+25.5) over North Carolina
I definitely hate to mess with North Carolina. But count me amongst those that think the absence of Ty Lawson is having as much of a mental effect on the Heels as it is a physical one. They simply weren’t very good in the ACC Tournament without him and Lawson will be on the bench today as well. Without their leader the Tar Heels lose some of their quick-strike capabilities, especially after made baskets by the opponents. Radford is a team that is used to scoring points. They are one of the higher scoring teams in Div. I. So they aren’t going to slow down on offense even as the game gets more and more out of reach. They’ve scored 80 or more points in six of their last seven games and It’s not as if the Tar Heels are a very defensive-minded club. Radford has some size and they have some experience playing together. The Heels really stopped beating teams by 30 points or so in mid-December, even though it took the oddsmakers months to catch up. And that was with Lawson. I see no shame in a solid 21-point win for the Tar Heels and that’s a win-win for all involved.
1.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #732 Purdue (-3.5) over Northern Iowa AND Take #737 Akron (+18) over Gonzaga
1-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #721 UCLA (-2.5) over VCU AND Take #732 Purdue (-3.5) over Northern Iowa
1-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 124.5 Purdue vs. Northern Iowa
BIG AL
At 4:55 pm, on Thursday, our Opening Round Game of the Year is on the Washington Huskies minus the points over Mississippi State. The Bulldogs surprised a lot of people when they won the SEC Tourney. Miss State dispatched an awful Georgia team in the opening round, and then pulled three upsets after that to snare the title. Along the way, the Bulldogs defeated LSU 67-57 in the semi-final round, and that win was significant to the extent that LSU was the SEC's only Top 25-ranked club for much of the season. But what that fact says to me is that the SEC was a VERY weak conference this season, so I'm not overly impressed with the Bulldogs roll through the field to win the SEC Championship. In Thursday's game, Miss State will have to beat the Pac-10 regular season champion, the Washington Huskies, who lost by 10 points to Arizona State in their conference tournament. So this game offers two situations which I like to exploit in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament. One thing I like to do is look for certain #1 seeds which lost in their conference tournament. These teams are 70.3% ATS in the NCAA Tourney since 1993 when not laying double digits. And I also like playing against teams which won their conference tourney as a #3 seed (or lower), if they are not catching double digits in their first round NCAA Tourney game. These teams have covered just 32% ATS since 1993 (and 25% when seeded 10th thru 13th). Take Lorenzo Romar's Huskies in a blowout: Opening Round Game of the Year on Washington.
At 12:30 pm, our Early Morning High Roller is on the BYU Cougars minus the points over Texas A&M. BYU opened as a 2.5-point favorite, but got hit, and is now as high as -3. Still, according to my database, the Cougs have a lot of value here. These two teams actually matched up last year in the Tourney, and A&M won that game, so BYU is playing with revenge. And teams playing with revenge from a Tourney loss the previous year are 67% ATS in the post-season since 1993. Additionally, BYU falls into 47-27, 79-33, and 44-18 ATS systems of mine which all play on certain teams off a loss in their conference tourney to end their regular season. But prior to falling by two points (64-62) to San Diego State in the Mountain West Semi-finals, BYU had won five straight (and 10 of 11), with a 9-2 ATS run. Finally, BYU excels as a favorite, and has cashed over 60% since 1999 in that role, including 58-28 ATS vs. a foe off a straight-up loss. In contrast, when BYU is an underdog, it's an awful 30-61-1 ATS its last 92. Take BYU.
At 9:50 pm, our Bailout Blowout is on the UCLA Bruins minus the points over VCU. The Bruins were upset by USC 75-65 in their conference tourney (as a 6.5-point favorite), but have one of the best coaches in the business in Ben Howland. At Pittsburgh, and now at UCLA, Howland's troops have excelled when coming off a pointspread loss, going 61-28 ATS their last 89! That's one reason I love UCLA. Another is that the Bruins fall into several of my best Tourney systems (with records of 79-33, 66-31 and 47-27 ATS) which play on certain teams in the NCAA 1st Round which lost in their conference tourney. The Rams are an awful 21-37 ATS off a SU/ATS win when matched up against a foe off a SU/ATS loss, and also fall into a negative tourney system which is 11-29 ATS since 1990. What we want to do is play AGAINST any team off a pointspread win of more than 12 points vs. a foe off a pointspread loss of nine or more points. With VCU in off a 71-50 win (as a 3.5-point fave), we'll fade the Rams here, and take UCLA.
At 7:25 pm, our Opening Round Shocker is on the Akron Zips plus the points over Gonzaga. The Bulldogs blew out St. Mary's 83-58 to win the West Coast Conference tourney, and they covered the 7-point spread by 18 points. However, in the first two rounds of the NCAA Tourney, teams off back to back ATS wins are a dismal 0-20 ATS since 1995 when priced from -8 to -14.5 points, if they covered by more than 6 points in their previous game, and are now matched up against a foe that's NOT off a SU/ATS loss. The Zips play great defense, and are led by Mid-American Conference defensive player of the year Nate Linhart (10.3 ppg; 6.1 rebounds). Akron ranked 7th nationally in defending the 3-pointer, and gives up just 59.8 ppg. I look for the Zips to control the tempo, and come well within the double-digit number. Take the points with Akron.
Dave Malinsky
6* Gonzaga
5* Under Duke
4* Oklahoma