Scott Spreitzer
25* Villanova
DOC
6 Units Memphis -4.5
3 Units Villanova +2
NHL
5 Unit Play. Take Nashville +110 over San Jose
These two teams will meet for the fourth time this year tonight in Nashville, with San Jose tied for first place in the west with Detroit while Nashville is one point out of the eight and final spot for the playoffs. Two of the meetings happened in November were the teams split each, winning on each other home ice with Nashville giving up 57 shots at Anaheim and escaping with a 4-3 win in their first meeting of the season. The last two games with the Sharks the Predators have giving up an average of thirty five shots vs. San Jose which seems high but is right on par for a San Jose team that averages 34 shots vs. the league. San Jose comes into tonight off a 6-5 shootout loss last night in Chicago in a game that saw them come back from a three goal deficit to tie the game in the final moments and to get a point by going to the overtime. Last nights loss was the Sharks first since having some closed door meetings with the highest brass in the organization, with the amount of effort it took for this team to come back last night for a team that is still dealing with a ton of injuries I can't see how they will match a rested and desperate Nashville team energy tonight in just about what is the definition of a must win game and while that doesn't mean a automatic win for the Predators the Sharks will also start backup goalie Brain Boucher adding to the list of things Sharks are up against tonight with besides a hungry Nashville. Ton of value with the home puppy
2 Unit Play. Take Edmonton at Phoenix Over 5.5
Phoenix has lost all three meetings this year to the Oilers with the first two games going over before the last one in February stayed under all listed at 5.5 goals. Oilers head coach Craig Mactavish quoted in the audio saying 'zero chance of anybody but Roloson starting until a playoff spot is solidified'. While I am sure he knows more than me but Roloson has played a ton lately and tonight will be his twenty third straight start since February 8th, with his last game vs. Detroit on Tuesday where he was barrage with 44 shots and didn't let one get by him until late in the third period after the high powered Red Wings offense just keep up a consist attack. I watched most of that game and it looked like to me he was tired, the Oilers seem like they went into a shell trying to protect a 1-0 lead that ultimately back fired on them. Now they head to the desert to face a young, loose Phoenix team playing for pride and more importantly to get better for next year. The odds maker makes little adjustment to the style these teams played when meeting each other this year where in the first two meetings went over the 5.5 with under money attached before the last game where they put some over money where the game stayed under. These two teams have average 54 shots a game and six goals in the three meetings this and we get very little adjustment here with another 5.5 with small juice attached. I made this total at 6 flat by numbers and at the very least I think should be 5.5 over minus 30. With all that said has me on the over here.
Robert Ferringo
7-Unit Play. Take Villanova (+2.5) over Duke
Note: This is our NCAA Tournament Game of the Year.
This is the matchup that I was hoping for when I saw the brackets released on Selection Sunday. I can’t fully explain why, but I simply feel like Villanova matches up particularly well with this Duke team and that the Wildcats have the athleticism and the guard play to win this game outright. Throw in the fact that Villanova should have strong support from a pro-Big East crowd in Boston and I think that the underdog will get it done here.
In several ways this ‘Nova team reminds me a bit of the West Virginia squad that knocked off Duke last year and their guards are better than the VCU team that tore up Duke in the first round of 2007. Villanova has four talented, fearless, get-to-the-basket guards that will not be intimidated by going up against the Dukies. Villanova also has four athletic frontcourt players that should be able to at least hold their own on the glass if not hold a sizeable advantage there. Dante Cunningham is no Joe Alexander, but he is a talented post player that can step away from the basket and make shots. He is the Wildcats leading scorer and was an All-Big East performer. But Cunningham isn’t even the Money Man for this Wildcats team. That would be Scottie Reynolds, the best guard in the tournament that no one is talking about. Two years ago, as a freshman, Reynolds went bonkers at the end of the year, topping 20 points in six of his last seven games, including a 40-point outburst in a win at Connecticut. Last year he closed the season with three of five at 20+, including 21 and 25 in the opening two rounds of the NCAA Tournament. The kid is fearless and skilled and I don’t think that the Blue Devils have anyone to guard him. Now, Reynolds had been banged up over the last week or so and he’s only managed 21 points in his last three games. I’ll be stunned if he doesn’t have at least that many points in this game tonight.
Duke is Duke. You can’t really knock them. They are a damn fine team and they deserve to be where they are. They also have some big wins in the nonconference this year. But if you look at the teams that beat them this year – Michigan, Wake, North Carolina, B.C. and Clemson – they all have things in common. All five of them have at least one exceptional scoring guard, a la Reynolds. Also, four of the five (Michigan is the exception) was bigger and stronger than Duke on the interior. And finally, all five teams beat Duke on the road, outside the coziness of Cameron Indoor. Villanova is at least as good as Michigan, Clemson or Boston College, so I think that they can win this game.
I brought up the fact that they are playing in Boston. To me that makes a significant difference. One of the things that makes Duke so tough to beat is the fact that the officials are so disgustingly pro-Duke it’s playing against a sixth player. And that’s not Duke-bashing. That’s me having watched about 45-50 Duke games just in the last two years and seeing it with my own eyes. But there won’t be ACC or Big East officials working tonight’s game (and if we end up with Ed Hightower I’m going to kill someone) so they will be less inclined to give Duke those “questionable” calls that they rely on. And if things do start to look fishy, don’t think for one second that the Boston crowd, with plenty of Philly fans making the trip, won’t let them hear about it. Villanova will have the crowd behind them, and for an underdog that’s a huge plus. Duke has not played well against the Big East – going just 2-8-1 ATS against them – and Duke has not been a good bet in the NCAA Tournament – 1-5 ATS overall and 2-10 ATS as a favorite.
Finally, does anything strike you as odd about this line? This is Duke, so the oddsmakers don’t have to do anything to entice the betting public to get behind the Blue Devils. But isn’t this line strangely low? Well, I went back over the last 12 years and analyzed how Duke performs in the line range of Duke +2 to Duke -5 and the results were about what I expected. This current group of Dukies is just 5-10 ATS in this line range. Over the last five years the program is just 10-17 ATS in this range and if you go all the way back to 1997-98 the Duke Blue Devils are just 18-28 (39.1 percent) against the spread between +2 and -5. Also, they are just 6-14 ATS in this line range, since 1997, in games played after Feb. 11. And if you look back over the last four years here were the spreads for their last games of the year: -4 (WVU), -6 (VCU), -5 (LSU), -4 (Mich. St.), +2 (UConn)*, +3.5 (Kansas), -13.5 (Indiana), -4 (Arizona)*, -4.5 (Florida), +9.5 (UConn)*, -1 (Kentucky). That’s 11 games and Duke was 1-10 SU, 3-8 ATS. If you throw out the Indiana and +9.5 Connecticut spreads you can see that in games with “tight” lines the Blue Devils are just 2-7 ATS and they lost outright in eight of the nine games. That, to me, is an indicator.
2.5-Unit Play. Take Missouri (+4.5) over Memphis
1-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 141.5 Missouri vs. Memphis
I think I’ve made my case pretty clear against the Memphis Tigers over the last few weeks. They are the most overrated team left in the field by virtue of the fact that they haven’t played anyone and they haven’t beaten anyone all season long. Their best win was over a soft Gonzaga team – and that’s it. Well, Utah beat Gonzaga this year and so did Portland State, but that doesn’t mean that they’re Final Four contenders now does it? In fact, Memphis’ win over No. 55-rated Maryland – the team that finished EIGHTH in the ACC – is the third-best win that Memphis has this year. I understand that they dominated that pathetic excuse for a conference that CUSA is this season, and that they made a mind at the window doing it. But Missouri has faced off against twice as many Top 50 opponents this year (16) than Memphis (7) and has an edge in Top 50 wins by a WIDE margin (11 to 4). Frankly, Missouri has played better against better competition this year. Further, Missouri has wins over Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas, USC and Cal. I would take just about any one of those wins over a victory against Gonzaga.
The teams that beat Memphis this year – Syracuse, Georgetown, Xavier – all had one thing in common: strength on the interior. All three of those teams had big forwards that could bang on the glass with Memphis. Memphis is one of the worst shooting teams in the country, so most of their offense is simply throw it up on the glass and go get it. Well, I believe that Missouri is big enough and strong enough to hold its own on the interior. If they do that they will force Memphis’ guards to make plays and hit shots. They won’t do it. Memphis’ guards played out of their heads last weekend. And while you might look at that and say, “See, they are capable of playing that well.” I look at it and say, “They’ve never played that well in their lives and they aren’t going to do it again.” Case in point: Memphis shot 58.5 percent against Maryland! They shot 52.6 percent from 3-point land (10-for-19)! So what do you think the odds are that a team that shoots 32.9 percent from 3-point territory (No. 230 in the country) comes even close to hitting 50 percent from deep again? I think the odds are pretty slim.
Memphis isn’t playing Tulane. The’re not playing Tulsa. They’re not playing Southern Miss. In the Sweet 16 Memphis will be playing big boy teams from big boy conferences. I think that this Tigers team is garbage, and even if they win I’ll be right back betting against them to get smoked by Connecticut. I think we have an outright winner here, but regardless I’d like to think that the points are good.
1.5-Unit Play.TEASER:Take Villanova (+7.5) over Duke (10 p.m.) AND Take Missouri (+9.5) over Memphis
BIG AL
100% (27-0) SWEET 16 GAME OF THE YEAR
At 7:05 pm, our Sweet 16 Game of the Year is on the UConn Huskies minus the points over Purdue. College sports are all about 'momentum' and right now, no team is playing as well as UConn has in the first two games of the tournament. The Huskies blitzed UT-Chattanooga by 56 points, 103-47, and then demolished a good Texas A&M team by 26 points, 92-66. That's a scoring average of 97.5 ppg, and a margin of victory of 41 ppg. Indeed, over the past 10 tournaments, no team had won its first two games by that amount of points. At the time of the seeding, some questioned whether UConn deserved its #1 ranking ahead of Memphis. I think the Huskies have answered that question convincingly. Now, the next question is whether UConn can keep it going in the "Sweet 16" Round tonight. I believe it will. Consider that #1 seeds off back-to-back ATS wins in rounds 1 and 2 are a perfect 8-0 ATS as favorites of 8 points or less. And also consider that Purdue is an awful 0-19 ATS since January 2004 away from home when priced from +5 to +9.5 points!! That's not good news when a team must face a club like Connecticut, which would have been the favorite to win this year's tournament had its point guard Jerome Dyson not gone down with an injury. Still, UConn has Hasheem Thabeet in the middle, and I don't think Purdue will be able to get Thabeet in foul trouble since the Boilers' tallest player is 6'8", seven inches shorter than the 7'3" Thabeet. But even if Thabeet commits needless fouls, UConn has a capable replacement in Gavin Edwards, who can rebound well (though he doesn't have Thabeet's shot-blocking ability). The Huskies also have a huge edge on the sidelines, as Calhoun has won two titles, and Matt Painter has never gotten this deep in the tourney. Sweet 16 Game of the Year on UConn.
Las Vegas Sport Picks
NBA:
2* Bulls -5.5
NCAA:
2* Villanova +2.5
3* Purdue/UCONN over 133
5* Missouri/Memphis over 141
6* UCONN -7
Raging Bull
NBA:
Chicago Bulls -6
NCAA:
UCONN -7
Missouri vs. Memphis over 141
BeatYourBookie
100* Play Connecticut (-6.5) over Purdue (NCAA)
Connecticut is 17-1 SU coming off a win by 10 points or more this season
Connecticut is 7-0 SU after covering the spread in two of the last three
Connecticut is 21-3 SU when playing as a favorite this season
100* Play Memphis (-4.5) over Missouri (NCAA)
Memphis is 27-0 SU over the last 27 games
Memphis is 42-2 SU when the total posted is between 140 and 149.5 points
Memphis is 20-2 SU after covering the spread in the last game
Memphis is 7-1 SU in all tournament games this season
100* Play Villanova (+2) over Duke (NCAA)
Villanova is 9-1 SU when the total posted is between 140 and 149.5 points
Villanova is 13-1 SU coming off a win by 20 points or more
Villanova is 5-1 SU in all tournament games this season
Other Hoops & Hockey Plays
30* Play LA Lakers (-7.5) over Detroit (NBA)
30* Play Philadelphia (-210) over Florida (NHL)
Maddux Sports
Basketball5 units on Duke -2 (Sweet 16 Game of the Year)
3 units on Pittsburgh -6.5
3 units on Purdue +6.5
Hockey
3 units on Florida +180
3 units on Los Angeles +145
CHARLIE
500* Xavier vs Pitt Over 139 & Purdue vs UConn Over 134' (500* 2 team parlay )
30* Villanova +2
20* Xavier +7
20* UConn -6'
10* Memphis -4'
Lakers -8 free play
Trace Adams
1500* - Villanova Wildcats
500* - Purdue Boilermakers
Duke is the # 2 seed, and of course they are "Duke", and that is really the only reason they are the small favorite in this game, as I believe the Villanova Wildcats are peaking at the right time, and will be moving on to the Elite 8 after this 40-minute session.
UCLA is not a patsy, and 'Nova drilled that team in the second round. Sure the 'Cats got to play in Philadelphia, but the same can be said about Duke, as they played their first pair of games in nearby Greensboro, and did struggle with a rather pedestrian Texas team in the second round before putting them away late.
Villanova is shooting the ball quite well, and the fact this game is not being played in a dome should help the Wildcats keep their shooting eyes on tonight.
Duke is just 2-8-1 against the spread their last 11 games played against the Big East, and I don't see that mark improving.
Any points we are getting a plus, but don't be surprised when Villanova wins this one outright.
Take the Wildcats plus the points.
1500♦ - Villanova Wildcats
Nobody looked stronger in the first two rounds then UConn, as the Huskies dismantled Tennessee-Chattanooga, and Texas A&M to move to the Sweet 16. The problem is, Purdue presents a different challenge for the Huskie, as the Boilers do have some big bodies to contend with Thabeet and company, and the Boilers can also knock down the 3-point shot which should have the UConn big men having to come out from underneath the basket a little more than they would like.
If you have been with me this basketball season, you know I think this Purdue team is capable of making it all the way to Detroit, and with a pair of tough games against Northern Iowa, and Washington (at Portland where the Huskies had plenty of support), Purdue is not going to get rattled against the over-confident Huskies.
Also consider the untimely recruiting violations that have arisen against Jim Calhoun and his staff, and the Huskies could very well be a little distracted.
I believe Purdue has the makeup to win this game outright, but I am glad we are getting around 7-points or so.
500♦ - Purdue Boilermakers
Ben Burns
Underdog GOY
Purdue
C-Stars Sports
5000 Units March Madness Total of the Year! Missouri/Memphis OVER the total
50 Units Pittsburgh minus the points over Xavier
50 Units UCONN minus the points over Purdue
Brian Gabrielle
Xavier vs. Pittsburgh
Pick: Xavier +7
One thing that really struck me this season was the parity through the field. That parity left nothing to chance as all teams brought their 'A' games to the opening rounds, which really did minimize upsets and propell the best teams through to the Sweet 16, albeit by the narrowest of margins. Many, many games landed bang on the BGS Power Ratings predicted margins. With the true Top 16 through, I'll expect the games to continue to be close, contested until the final shot, making three of these four these generous pointspreads loaded with value, and value is where the money is.
Jamie Tursini
LA Lakers at Detroit
Play: LA Lakers -8
I'm laying this number simply because of the injury situation of the Pistons. R.Wallace has missed 8 games and R.Hamilton has missed 5 games. Both are doubtful here, and the Pistons just don't have the offensive firepower to match the Lakers.L.A. has lost 9 straight at Detroit dating back to 2002.. And they are aware of this, plus they are battling Cleveland for the best record in the NBA with bragging rights.I think the Lakers win this one by double-digits, so I'll lay the number.
Tom Freese
Phoenix at Portland
Play: Over 221.5
Phoenix is in a 41-14 ATS OVER System that says to Play OVER on all teams when the Total is 210 or higher if they have covered 4 of their last 5 games ATS vs. an opponent who has covered 5 or 6 of their last 7 games ATS. Portland is 25-14 OVER their last 39 home games vs. Phoenix and they are 6-2-1 OVER their last 9 home games overall. The Trailblazers are 5-1 OVER as home favorites of 5.0 to 10.5 and they are 5-0 OVER after allowing 100 or more points in their last game. 10* 'TOTAL' OF THE WEEK PLAY ON 'OVER'