JEFFERSON-SPORTS
WASHINGTON -130 GM1
Scott Spreitzer
LA Lakers
Larry Ness
20* LA Lakers
Scott Rickenbach
(Top Play) Detroit Red Wings Money Line (+) @ Pittsburgh
First off, Detroit is on an 18-4 ATS run in the Stanley Cup Finals. Of course, the best time to put a “streak” like this into play is when it can be combined with a situational edge. That is precisely the case tonight on Thursday as the Red Wings are a stellar 10-4 their last 14 games after losing a game by two goals or more. Of course, on Tuesday, they lost right here at Pittsburgh by a 4-2 count. Look for them to bounce back big here and we are very, very comfortable putting this combined 28-8 (78%) ATS run to work for us here!
Note that the Penguins truly had to win Game Three to make this series. While they did manage to get the win, what is most concerning is that, even though it was a must win and even though it was at home where the Penguins had the advantage in terms of the line change, note that the Red Wings actually dominated the first two periods! Detroit outshot Pittsburgh by a combined margin of 26 to 11. Give the Penguins credit for a huge third period where they outshot the Red Wings by a count of 10 to 3 and got the big goal needed (on a power play) for the win. However, also note that Detroit is very likely to approach Game Four with their most focus of this entire series and that’s bad news for a Pens team that was outshot 26 to 11 in those first two periods on Tuesday. The Red Wings have proven they can contain Sidney Crosby. They have shown that they are the better team around their own net – as was expected to be the case coming into this series. Also, Detroit has the added boost of a probable return of Pavel Datysuk tonight. Look for goalie Chris Osgood – solid so far in this series – to bounce back with a stronger effort in Game Four than he had in Game Three. The Penguins cycling has had some issues in the Detroit zone and, simply put, the Red Wings defense has been frustrating the Pens offense as the Pittsburgh system has failed to “crack the code” as of yet.
While coach Dan Bylsma has done a fantastic job since taking over the Penguins, the Pens have still been held “out of their game” so far in this series. They were fortunate to be tied up at two entering the third period on Tuesday and while the third period is impressive, we know exactly what should be expected from the Red Wings tonight! They do not want to see this series tied up and they know they can take a stranglehold on it by winning Game Four. Until mid-way through the third period in Game Three, the Penguins had only led the Red Wings for nine minutes of ice time this entire series. That says a lot right there and, unlike Tuesday, the Wings will have much more to show for the big edge in shots on goal in the first two periods of this one tonight. They’ve continued to adjust to what Pittsburgh brings and they’ve frustrated the Penguins and not allowed them much open ice. That trend continues here and the Red Wings bounce back from a rare, multi-goal loss with a big win! Play Detroit on the money line as a Top Play selection
RatedPicks 6/4
Been Cold
NBA -
LA Lakers -6
Orlando Magic to win series +280 (2 units)
Orlando Magic to win in 6 games +750 (1 Unit)
MLB -
Florida Marlins -140
LA Angels -105
NY Mets -110
BURNS MLB
Baseball (MLB)
FLORIDA
Game: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Florida Marlins Game Time: 6/4/2009 7:10:00 PM Prediction: Florida Marlins Reason: I'm laying the price with FLORIDA. The first three games of this series have all been decided by a minimum of three runs. The Marlins won the first two by scores of 7-4 and 10-3 and the Brewers bounced back with a 9-6 victory yesterday. I expect the Marlins, who are now 12-3 the last 15 times that they hosted the Brewers, to have a significant advantage on the mound this evening. Johnson goes for the home team and that's good news for Florida fans. That's because the Marlins are a profitable 13-4 his last 17 starts, most recently a 7-3 win over the Mets. Averaging nearly seven innings each time he takes the mound, Johnson has allowed three earned runs or less in 10 of his last 11 starts this season and that includes eight straight. He's 4-1 (Marlins are 8-3) with a stellar 2.66 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. His home numbers are even better, as he's got an outstanding 1.66 ERA and 0.946 WHIP in six starts here, averaging more than seven innings per start. He has 42 K's (and only 8 walks) in 43 1/3 home innings. Overall, Bush has been solid for the Brewers so far this season. That said, his numbers (3-1, 4.38 ERA) don't come close to comparing to what Johnson brings to the table. Additionally, although he's been respectable so far this season, he's never had much success on the road, since coming over to the Brewers. Most importantly, Bush has struggled in his last two starts, allowing nine runs in 10 2/3 innings for a poor 7.59 ERA. Over that 2-game stretch, he's allowed 12 hits, four of them home runs, and issued seven walks. When considering that Johnson has allowed only one home run at home all year long, Bush's recent stats look that much worse. These pitchers faced each other at Milwaukee a few weeks ago. Johnson had to leave early with a minor shoulder problem and Bush came away with the victory. Johnson, healthy now, still has better career stats vs. Milwaukee than Bush does against Florida. Note that Bush got rocked for six runs (2 home runs) in six inning in his last start here, which came on 5/7/08. I expect Johnson to outpitch Bush, getting some payback from last month and leading the Marlins to the series victory. *annihilator
ATS Lock
4 Units LA/Orlando Over
ATS Financial
3 Units Magic
NSA
20* LA Lakers -6
20* Detroit +120
10* Orlando @ LA Lakers OVER 205.5
10* Toronto +100
10* Cubs +120
10* Pittsburgh -145
Jack Jones 6-04-09:
MLB Top 20* Dodgers
15* Tigers
15* White Sox
NBA 15* Magic/Lakers under 206
Stu Feiner
5000 Dime - Lakers
100* Giants @ 7:35
100* Houston Astros
DOC SPORTS
8-Unit NBA Playoffs Game of the Year #701 Take Orlando/LA Lakers OVER 206 (9 p.m. EST, Thursday)
The Orlando offense has been firing on all cylinders lately and they made the No. 1 NBA defense of the Cleveland Cavaliers look foolish and amateurish in dispensing with them in six games. We expected this total to be in the 210-range and would lean toward the over at that number but we think there is some excellent value here and that this number is off. Yes, both teams are capable of playing some strong defense but we think that both teams will flex their offensive muscle in this series. In two meetings this season these teams scored 212, and 209, respectively. In the first meeting Orlando shot a bit above their season average while the Lakers shot well under their season average but otherwise both teams shot under their season average in the second game and the totals for both games both still topped this number. Also, five out of the eight quarters played between these two teams this season topped 50 points. The Lakers average 108 points per game at home this season and they scored more than 100 in all six games in their series against the Nuggets. Orlando scored 100 or more in four of their six games against Cleveland, a much tougher defense than the Lakers have. We would lean towards the Lakers here and think that they will score around 110 with the Magic making up the difference to get this one over the posted number
Scott Spreitzer
NBA Finals GOY
I'm laying the points with the Lakers on Thursday. Those who were with me during the Eastern Conference Finals already know how much respect I have for Hedo Turkoglu and Rashard Lewis. I spent most of my analysis of their game-six matchup with the Cavs pointing out the huge advantage the Magic had with those two 6'10 bodies, not to mention the added dimension Mikael Pietrus brought to the matchup. Turkoglu and Lewis, with their size, basically went unmatched in the previous round whether spotting up for three-pointers or driving their defender inside. But those advantages are eliminated now that they will face the Lakers. Los Angeles HAS the bodies to defend those two outside and they won't be able to dribble-drive their way to the paint for open shots or for dishing it to an open man, namely, Dwight Howard. The Magic will be defended outside by Lamar Odom and the ever-improving Trevor Ariza. The Lakers own the bigger front-line which will come to the forefront when the Lakers have possession of the "rock." I expect the ball to go through Gasol more than it has in the postseason thus far, which creates serious advantages for the Lakers, whether Gasol takes the shot or kicks it out to the open man. And, Dwight Howard will have to pay attention to the Laker big-men. Howard had little to worry about (other than helping out) against the Celtics and Cavs. Not this time. Best of all...I haven't even mentioned the name "Kobe" yet. The Magic may make the adjustments to challenge the rest of the way. But I believe they're in deep trouble in game-one. And yes, I do know the Magic knocked-off the Lakers in Los Angeles this season. Finally, the Lakers, with all of their "Finals" experience understand just how important this home opener is, due to the 2-3-2 Finals format. I believe the Lakers will be focused from the opening tip and that they'll win and cover game-one. I'm laying the points with Los Angeles
Larry Ness
20* NBA Playoffs Game of the Year
My 20* NBA Playoffs GOY is on the LA Lakers at 9:05 ET. Historically, the 2-3-2 format favors the team with the first and last two games at home, as it's hard for any team to win all of those middle-three home games (3-5). The Lakers expected to meet LeBron and the Cavs in this matchup but don't expect there to be any "letdown." The Lakers know how tough the Magic are, as Orlando won both regular season meetings between the teams, 106-103 at Orlando and 109-103 in LA (both games were played before Bynum went down with his injury). There can be no doubt about how good the Magic are, now. Orlando is playing with tons of confidence these days, after eliminating the Celtics (defending champs) and the Cavs (league's best record this year) the last two series. Dwight Howard has been "Superman," averaging 21.7 PPG and 15.7 RPG, while all teams are concerned about Orlando's ability to "shoot the three." Lewis and Turkoglu are tough matchups for almost every team plus Alston, Lee and Pietrus have proven to be an excellent backcourt trio (I'm assuming Nelson will not be available for this series). The Lakers may have trouble stopping Howard inside (even with two seven-footers in Gasol and Bynum plus a 6-11 player in Odom) but the Magic will have to contend with Kobe, the game's best "finisher." While the Lakers lost twice to the Magic this year, Kobe scored 69 points in the two games. Gasol (18.2-11.3) has posted nine straight double-doubles this postseason and is shooting 57.4 percent from the floor. Odom (12.0-9.5) can be erratic but he also shoots better than 50 percent from the floor (51.9), while Ariza has added more offense to his game this postseason (he's an excellent defender), averaging 11.4 PPG and shooting 55.8 percent. Fisher and Bynum have underachieved, as have LA's role players but I still see feel the Lakers have a great chance to win this series. As always, one must take things one game at a time and as we've seen throughout this postseason, the Lakers have been guilty of a number of highly questionable efforts, so I don't want to get ahead of myself. That being said, winning Game 1 of this series is almost a MUST for LA. With Jackson not getting the type of contributions from his bench on a regular basis, the Lakers were becoming a tired team. They had played 13 games over 26 games, when they closed out the Nuggets in Game 6 of the Western Conference finals last Friday. That was good news, as the Lakers will have five days of rest prior to Game 1. It should be noted that LA was 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS with three or more days rest in between games this year. Game 1 of this series is HUGE, as Jackson and the Lakers are well aware that Jackson-led teams are 31-0 in any seven-game series after winning the first game. The fact that the Magic beat LA in both meetings this year plus have already won consecutive Game 1s at Boston and at Cleveland the last two series, gives LA all the "forewarning" it needs. The Lakers are a confident road team and will expect to win at least one game in Orlando. The Lakers were a league-best 29-12 during regular season on the road and are coming off wins in two of the three games played in Denver, where the Nuggets had previously won 16 straight. LA knows it can make a HUGE statement by winning both games in LA (something it didn't do vs either Houston or Denver), which could give them a 'stranglehold' on this series, which both Kobe (getting that fourth ring, this time without Shaq) and Phil (looking to pass Red and get to 10 titles) want so badly. Of course, LA can win but not cover. Howqever, we haven't seen much of that in the last two rounds of thsi postseason. There have been 35 games played in the second round and the conference finals, with SU winners going 31-2-2 ATS (I like those odds). With five days to prepare against a team which is off back-to-back upset series wins, I believe the Lakers are in for a surprisingly easy win. NBA Playoff GOY 20* LA Lakers.
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BIG AL
THURSDAY BASEBALL UNDERDOG ANNIHILATOR
At 10:10 pm our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Philadelphia Phillies. The Dodgers have been installed as a -115 favorite, and that's hard to believe, on the road, against the best team in Baseball. Certainly, this could very well be a preview of the National League championship, and this game will showcase two of the best young southpaws as well. It seemed like, after a rocky month of April, Philadelphia's lefthanded ace had turned the corner with several quality starts in a row. That is until his last start when he seemed to take a giant step backwards, giving up six runs in six innings at home -- to the Nationals of all teams. The word is that Hamels fastball was clocked at 92-93 MPH at some points in the game, but was also clocked as low as 88 MPH at other times. He never seemed to be able to get into a rhythm on that occasion. The question is whether this latest setback is going to rear its ugly head again tonight against a much better team -- the Dodgers -- and starter in young Clayton Kershaw. Although dominant at many times, Kershaw also has a tendency to walk too many batters, something he is working on as he matures and learns to mix his pitches better. But the good news in this game is that the hard-throwing southpaw will get to face a Phillies lineup that relies on lefty hitters in the meat of their lineup (Utley, Howard, and Ibanez) and that should bode well for this youngster, especially if his team can give him some early run support. The wrong team is favored here. Take the Dodgers.