M@linsky
4- Lakers / Orlando Under 201
4- Color/Milw Under 7.5
4- Red Sox RL +1.5
5- Anaheim/TBay Over 9
Jack Clayton
Guaranteed Selections
Date: Thursday, June 11, 2009
$25.00 Guaranteed: Get ready for TOTAL domination, on the baseball diamond, on the mound, and at the wagering window. This is a game where one team holds HUGE edges on the hill and in the pen. Get set to strike gold with this 4-Star Major Mound Mismatch, then sit back and collect! 6/10/2009
4* Blue Jays (927) at Rangers: Toronto has a terrific offense, tops in batting average and 4th in runs in the AL, as Adam Lind and Aaron Hill continue to spark offensive side of things. Hill said he felt energized after being given a day off. In April, as the Jays surged to the top of their division and led the majors in several offensive categories, Hill batted .365 with a .567 slugging percentage. Hill is second in the major leagues with 77 hits and was leading the Jays with 12 home runs. And this is a hitter-friendly paradise in Texas, as they had little trouble winning the first two games of the series by a combined 15-3. Toronto starter Scott Richmond (4-3, 3.99 ERA) has been strong and has already beaten Texas once (3.00 ERA against them, striking out 8 in 6 innings.) Texas is on a 3-6 run while waiting for Josh Hamilton to come back. Southpaw Derek Holland (6.54 ERA) has been awful. Play the Blue Jays.
Tony Salinas
25*
Astros {R.Ortiz} (+130) over Chicago Cubs {R.Dempster}
2:05 PM -- Minute Maid Park
Partly cloudy. Winds blowing out to center field at 5-15 m.p.h. Game Time temperature: Around 90.
25*
Twins {N.Blackburn}/Athletics {T.Cahill} UNDER 8½ Runs
3:35 PM -- Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum
Mostly cloudy. Winds blowing out to right field at 5-15 m.p.h. Game Time temperature: Around 70.
Ben Burns
Playoff GOY
I'm playing on ORLANDO. Practically all the comments that I have read about this game have been the same. The general idea is that the Magic played their very best in Game 3 and that the Lakers did not (Kobe "choked" in 4th) and yet the Magic still barely won the game. They feel that the Lakers will bounce back with a better effort and that the Magic have nowhere to go but down. Practically all the people that I have spoken to have had a similar opinion. I disagree with their logic. Let me start by saying that I have a lot of respect for the Lakers. They're very talented. They're very well coached. They're very hungry. They've also been very good to me as I've gone 6-0 ATS with my last six 'sides,' when playing on or against the Lakers, incl. 2-0 in this series. In four of those cases, I played on the Lakers. In two, I played against them. So, it's not that I'm "anti-LA." Rather, it's just that I feel much the same way about the Magic and am "pro Orlando." The Magic are more talented than people still realize. Stan Gundy has proven to be a much better coach than many gave him credit for. He gets his team ready and he's had them at their best in their biggest games. His play-calling, in my opinion, has been excellent. Keep in mind that the Magic are only a missed layup away from being up 2-1 in this series and that they defeated the Lakers in both regular season meetings. Let's also remember that the Magic just defeated the defending champs, defying the odds by winning Game 7 at Boston, and then more or less had their way with the top-seeded Cavaliers. Those victories were arguably more impressive than LA's series victories over Houston and Denver. Because the Magic won the last game, everyone figures that the Lakers can't lose two in a row. Therefore, we're getting a much better line to work with than Orlando bettors were for the last game. Although it doesn't guarantee it, the number is now low enough that a SU victory will very likely also result in an ATS victory. Why is the number lower? While, as mentioned earlier, many think that the Lakers will play better and they still don't believe in the Magic. Surely, Kobe and the mighty Lakers can't lose twice in a row? Sure, the Lakers will naturally be looking to bounce back with a victory. However, I don't believe that there's any reason why the Magic can't also bring their top A-Game once again. In fact, I feel that the Game 3 victory will give the Magic even more confidence and giving them the true belief that they actually have a chance. Additionally, that victory helped to take some pressure off. Now, they know that at least they're not going to get swept and that they got the Orlando fans a long-awaited playoff victory. With that "monkey off their back" it should allow them to shoot freely and easily - not that they need any help in the shooting department after shooting 62.5% last time out. The Magic are now 4-1 SU when trailing in a playoff series. On the other hand, even counting the last game as an ATS win, (some would have pushed) the Lakers are still only 3-8 ATS the last 11 when leading in a playoff series. Note that they're also an ugly 8-18 ATS their last 26 games in the NBA Finals. The Magic are 3-1 SU/ATS the last four times that they were home favorites of three points or less. With Game 3 finishing well above the total, the over/under line has climbed from the high 190s that it was in Game 3 to the low 200s for tonight's game. That's worth noting as the Lakers are a money-burning 7-15 ATS the last 22 times that they played a road game with a total ranging from 200 to 204.5. Conversely, during the same stretch, the Magic are a profitable 13-6-1 ATS (16-4 SU) when playing a home game with a total in that range. Playing at home where they've won five straight and eight of nine, I expect the Magic to "do the unthinkable" and hand Kobe and co. their second straight loss, covering the very small number along the way. I successfully went against the Magic for my NBA GOY (98-80 winner with Milwaukee on 4/13) but I'm playing ON them for my *Playoff GOY
Personal Favorite
I'm laying the price with WASHINGTON. It's not all that often that you find a team, with a record as poor as the Nationals, favored in this price range. It does happen occasionally though and in this case, I feel that the line, which has now fallen consideraby from its opening number, is actually very fair. That's because, in my opinion, this is a "pitching mismatch." John Lannan has become a consistent workhorse for the Nationals and after producing a solid 3.91 ERA last season he’s bested that so far this season, as he's got a 3.68 ERA so far. He’s 2-0 with four no-decisions in his six home starts this season. Lannan also has an outstanding 1.76 ERA at home and he's held opponents to a paltry .233 batting average here. He’s already faced the Reds twice in his career and he’s held them to just 10 hits in 11 2/3 innings. Cincinnati is one of the weaker offensive teams in the league and this is especially true when they’re on the road. Missing Edwin Encarnacion and Joey Votto has made things even tougher on an already weak Reds offense. That makes defeating John Lannan an even tougher task. Adding to the concerns for Cincinnati Thursday afternoon is that they are sending Micah Owings to the mound. The right-hander is 1-5 on the road this season and has lost four straight decisions. Owings has only averaged five innings per start over the last four weeks and he has a 5.48 ERA in his career day games. Indeed, Owings may not last long here. With 25 hits allowed in his last 19 2/3 innings, Owings is in poor form right now. Washington has hit the ball well in day games this season as they are tied with the Giants for 5th out of the 16 teams in the National League. Conversely, the Reds' .246 batting average in day games is only getting worse as the absence of Votto has hindered their hopes of turning things around offensively. I expect Lannan to continue to be the most consistent pitcher in the Nationals rotation, out pitching Owings and helping the Nationals get back on track. *Personal Favorite
Blowout" GOM
I'm laying the price with TEXAS. The Rangers haven't just lost the first two games of this four game series; they've been routed by a combined score of 15 to 3. That's not typically what we've come to expect from the Rangers here at home. Not this season, at least. Texas came into this series with an 18-9 mark at home while the Blue Jays came into this series with an 11-17 mark on the road. That also should provide some additional motivation for the Rangers, as no team likes to be beaten up in front of their home fans. Naturally, they'd love nothing more than to serve up some payback by delivering a "blowout" win of their own. Casey Janssen and Brian Tallet of Toronto managed to shut down the Rangers vaunted offense at home but I believe that it will be a different story with Ricky Romero on the mound. Romero is a rookie southpaw and the "mistake pitches" he's made recently are reflective of his lack of big league experience. Indeed, he's allowed seven homers in his last three starts. During that stretch, he has an ugly 7.16 ERA and an awful 1.837 WHIP. Romero is coming off a quality start (3 runs in seven innings) in his last outing. However, he still gave up two home runs and that was vs. Kansas City. Even without Hamilton in the lineup and even thought they've struggled so far this series, the Rangers at home represent a much tougher offense. Yesterday notwithstanding, the Rangers have fared very well vs. southpaw starters. Even with yesterday's loss, they're a profitable 13-8 vs. left-handers. Note that Romero has only made two road starts and his most recent one (at Baltimore) was a disaster, where he was battered for 11 hits and 5 earned runs in just 5 1/3 innings. After his last start he was quoted as saying: "...I still have some work to do. I haven't gotten a feel for that changeup that I had earlier in the year." Romero is likely to be no match for Kevin Millwood of the Rangers. After a rigorous off-season training program, Millwood is off to a fantastic start this season. He's in better shape than he's been in for years and his 5-4 record is nowhere indicative of how well he's throwing. He's got a 2.96 ERA on the season, is averaging better than seven innings per start and is holding opponents to a .247 batting average. Last time out, Millwood dominated the Red Sox, at Fenway. He went seven innings, allowing just one unearned run. He didn't receive a decision in his last home start but was also very sharp, allowing five hits and two runs through six complete. Overall, he's 3-1 with a 2.49 ERA here at home. While this price is typically a little higher than I prefer to lay, I feel that the situation, venue and current form of the starters make the current line actually quite reasonable. The Blue Jays are a money-burning 12-27 their last 39 as a road dog of +125 and +150. Toronto is also just 10-17 on the road when the total is a 10.5 or 10. Conversely, the Rangers are an impressive 14-6 at home when the total is listed at 10.5 or 10. I expect the revenge-minded Rangers to bounce back and improve to 5-2 at home this season with Millwood on the mound and 14-7 his L21 home starts overall. *"Blowout" GOM
Triple Crown
4* Tampa Bay
kbhoops
MLB
5* Colorado +170 **POD**
5* Pittsburgh +162
5* Whitesoxs +105
5* Cleveland +122
NBA
3* Lakers +2
David Banks
9:00 Orl. Magic - pts.
9:00 Orlando/Lakers Over
2:05 Chi Cubs
4:35 Wash Nationals
7:10 Phil Phillies
7:05 Balt. Orioles
7:10 NY Yankee's
Brandon Lang
30 Dime Lakers
5 Dime Lakers First Half
5 Dime Pirates
5 Dime Cubs -1.5
5 Dime Tigers
Premium picks from Jimmy Boyd
MLB Baseball Premium Picks
MLB | Jun 11 '09 (7:10p)
Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets New York Mets
-105 at bookm
4* Major NL East Game of the Month on NY Mets -105
After taking Game 1 of this series, the Mets lost a close 1 run game in extra innings Wednesday. New York really should have came out on top as it stranded 16 base runners. I'll back the Mets in this Game 3 rubber match tonight as they have had Moyer's number. Moyer is 0-1 with a 13.50 ERA in two starts versus the Mets this season. Redding has struggled this season for the Mets, but he is 5-3 with a 3.29 ERA in 11 starts against the Phillies. He looked good his last time out and I expect him to build on that here. The Phillies are 0-5 in Moyer's last 5 starts as a road underdog. The Mets are 12-4 in their last 16 home games, 16-5 in their last 21 games as a favorite, 12-2 in their last 14 games as a home favorite, and 4-0 in their last 4 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150. The Phillies are only 1-4 in the last 5 meetings in New York. Smart money goes on the Mets.
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NBA Basketball Premium Picks
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NBA | Jun 11 '09 (9:05p)
Los Angeles Lakers vs Orlando Magic Los Angeles Lakers
+2½-110 at bookm
5* NBA Finals Gm 4 *MONSTER BEST BET* (ABC) on Lakers +2.5
The Magic shot an NBA Finals record 63% from the floor in Game 3 and still did not cover the spread. If Kobe was his normal self, not shooting 5 of 10 from the free throw line and living up to his title as the games best closer, the Lakers would have won Game 3 despite Orlando's shooting performance. Here are two things I know: the Magic won't shoot as well in Game 4 and Kobe will be better. The Lakers are a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU loss. The Lakers are 10-2 ATS as an underdog this season and the underdog is 8-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings. I like LA outright in Game 4 so I'll gladly take the insurance points.
Robert Ferringo
Take Chicago Cubs (-140) over Houston
Take N.Y. Yankees (-145) over Boston
Take Philadelphia (-105) over N.Y. Mets
Take Atlanta (-1.5, +125) over Pittsburgh
Take Kansas City (-130) over Cleveland
Today’s Totals
Take ‘Under’ 9.5 Chicago Cubs at Houston
Take ‘Under’ 9.5 N.Y. Yankees at Boston
Take ‘Over’ 8.0 Kansas City at Cleveland
Take ‘Under’ 9.5 Philadelphia at N.Y. Mets
Take ‘Under’ 9.0 San Francisco at Arizona
Bob Balfe's
MLB Baseball
Royals/Indians Over 8 runs
Greinke/Sowers
bettingasabusiness
3 Plays Total Risk 3.25 Units
Over 7.5 Runs (-110) Colorado (Cook) / Milwaukee (Gallardo) 2:05 ET 1.25 Units
NY Mets (Redding) -105 / Philadelphia (Moyer) 7:10 ET 1 Unit
Chicago WS (Floyd) Even / Detroit (Jackson) 2:05 ET 1 Unit
Jack Jones
MLB
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Atlanta BravesTotal 8 ov+100
I'll take the OVER here in the early game between Pitt and Atlanta. Paul Maholm has given up 13 runs on 23 hits in his last 18 innings of work, good for 6.00 ERA and 1.61 WHIP. He also has a 5.71 ERA and 1.51 WHIP in 7 road starts on the season. Atlanta has scored 5.5 runs per game against left-handed pitching and the Pirates have put up 4.9 runs per game over their last seven and 4.6 runs per game against right-handed starters. Plenty of reasons why the over eight is safe
early.
Chicago Cubs vs Houston AstrosTotal 9½ un-115
Two struggling offenses with a high total so I'm going to bite on the UNDER here today. The Cubs have put up 4 runs per game on the road and 3.9 runs over their last seven games. Houston is scoring 4 runs per game against right-handed starters and 4.1 runs per game at home. Ryan Dempster hasn't given up an ER in his last two starts either, so that makes me think there is quite a bit of value in this total today.
Detroit Tigers vs Chicago White SoxTotal 8½ un-115
Jackson has a 1.16 ERA in his last three starts and Floyd has a 2.49 ERA in his last three. Both of these offenses have been terrible as well, with the White Sox scoring just 3.4 runs per game at home and 3.6 over their last seven and the Tigers putting up 3.9 runs over their last seven. Take the UNDER here in what should be a low scoring Tigers win.
Detroit Tigers vs Chicago White SoxDetroit Tigers -115 - Detroit Tigers -115
I'm going to ride Edwin Jackson tonight as he has a 1.31 ERA and 0.87 WHIP in six road starts and should post decent numbers tonight against a struggling White Sox team. Chicago is hitting just .211 in their last seven games and .218 at home this year. Detroit hasn't been knocking the cover off the ball, but Gavin Floyd has a 5.35 ERA on the season. Sure he's had some success recently, but that was against a couple of weak hitting teams. I'll go with the road team here today.
Cincinnati Reds vs Washington NationalsTotal 9 un-103
Two struggling offenses so you have to like the UNDER here today. The Reds are putting up 3.6 runs per game over their last seven and 3.9 runs per game against left-handed starters. The Nationals are scoring just 2 runs per game over their last seven with a 1.95 team batting average. John Lannan has pitched great at home this year with a 1.76 ERA and 1.09 WHIP and while Micah Owings is struggling, he does has a 3.86 ERA in four starts against Washington.
Seattle Mariners vs Baltimore OriolesTotal 9 un+103
Baltimore has scored 1.9 runs per game over their last seven and 3.6 runs per game against left-handed starters. Seattle is scoring just 3.3 runs per game over their last seven and 3.6 runs per game against right-handed starters. Koji Uehara has been decent at home this year with a 2.62 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in four starts so I'll take my chances that runs are at a premium here today.
NBA Basketball Premium Picks
NBA | Jun 11 '09 (9:05p)
Los Angeles Lakers vs Orlando MagicTotal 201 un-108
Good thing the last game in this series went over, so that way we can get a couple of extra points on the total and hop back on the UNDER train. Both of these teams shot unbelievable from the floor in Game 3, which is the only reason the game went over the total. That isn't going to happen against tonight as the Lakers will clamp down on their defense in order to pick up the win. Both of these teams have solid defenses, so points are at a premium tonight. NBA | Jun 11 '09 (9:05p)
Los Angeles Lakers vs Orlando MagicLos Angeles Lakers
+2½-110 at jamaica20* NBA Finals No-Brainer on LA Lakers +2.5
Orlando is coming off a game in which they shot 62.5% from the floor and they still managed to win by only four points. The Lakers still could have won the game if Kobe would have made his free throws. You had to expect LA to let off the gas a little bit after blowing Orlando out in Game 1 and then winning an emotional win in Game 2. This Laker team has a history of letdowns in these playoffs, but after a loss they have come back strong. No reason to think they won't do the same tonight and win in Orlando.
Jack Jones
Is the Handicapper I Discussed
In the Trends Section Yesterday
Put Up 202 Plays in 1 Month
Wayne Root
CC------------Boston Red Sox
Mill------------Orlando Magic