Priceless Picks
1 Unit on USC pk
At 8-3 SU and ATS, USC has been stellar on the road all season. It's ability to shut teams down away from home gives the Trojans the edge tonight. USC is allowing its opponents just 60.8 ppg on the road this season while scoring 69.7. USC has won 5 of 6 SU and ATS while the Huskies come in on a 3-game losing streak both SU and ATS. USC beat Washington by 15 points at home, and although this one will be closer, the Trojans will still come through with a 5-7 point win. USC is 29-11 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons and 13-4 ATS in road games over the last 2 seasons. Take the Trojans.
USA Sports Consulting
Eastern Kentucky (-1) over Murray State - 1 unit
Minnesota -138 over Dallas - 2 units
NY Rangers -116 over Anaheim - 2 units
Atlanta -105 over Vancouver - 2 units
Tom Freese
Blue Line Club
San Jose St at Nevada
Nevada is 35-13 ATS their last 48 February games and they are 27-9 ATS off a game where they had 9 or less assists. The Wolf Pack are 18-7 ATS off a game where they shot 75% or better from the foul line and they are 28-9 ATS when playing with road loss revenge. San Jose St is 3-14 ATS when playing their second game in eight days and they are 11-21 ATS off one or more straight losses. The Spartans are 2-8 ATS their last 10 games when playing off a straight up loss in their last game.
PLAY ON NEVADA
ARMVIN SPORTS
CBB
ARKANSAS LITTLE ROCK 4
CAL POLY SLO 0
NC GREENSBORO -8.5
WESTERN CAROLINA 12.5
NHL
ANAHEIM 106
VANCOUVER at
ATLANTA Over 5.5
COLUMBUS 125
Drew Gordon
1. 300,000* Pittsburgh
2. 50,000* Wis.-Green Bay
3. 50,000* Rhode Island
Black Widow Sports
1* on Wisconsin Green Bay -2
Wisconsin-Green Bay is 8-1 at home this season and catch Valparaiso in a great spot Thursday. Valpo is coming off their heartbreaking loss to Butler and it will be very tough for this team to put the same effort into this game as they did against the Bulldogs. Valpo is getting outscored in road games this season. Wisconsin-Green Bay is 15-3 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons. They always have had a knack for winning the close-call games. With only 1 loss all season at home, WGB will not be falling to Valpo tonight. Take Wisconsin-Green Bay and lay the points.
Wunderdog
Game: Dallas at Minnesota
Pick: Game Total OVER 5 -125
Dallas is 13-10 OVER on the road. Compared to playing at home, their defense drops off while their offense barely takes a hit. Minnesota plays very god defense at home but they can score too. The Stars are 12-4 OVER vs. winning teams this season and 11-3 OVER vs. teams with starting goalies that save 91.5%+ of shots against. This one should make it to 6 or higher.
Wunderdog
Game: Xavier at Saint Louis (9:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Xavier -8 (-110)
Xavier has won four in a row and sits at 18-4 overall and 6-1 in league play. They have earned their No. 13 ranking and will bring it tonight in Saint Louis. They aren't done with their statement. The Musketeers lead the Atlantic Ten in scoring margin (+16), rebounding margin (+6.8)field goal percentage, free throw percentage and assist-to-turnover ratio. They can beat you in many ways as they have six players averaging double digits in scoring. Saint Louis gets just 62.3 points per game here at home. They have a slight defensive edge but not by much. Xavier has covered eight of ten against winning teams this season and will make it nine of eleven tonight.
Jeff Alexander Sports
1 Unit on Golden State -13
The Bulls are banged up. Gordon , Deng, and Hinrich all missed Wednesday's game against Portland. With other guys stepping in and playing more minutes than normal, they will really be feeling the effects tonight when they visit the run and gun Warriors. Golden State is 8-2 SU and 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 at home versus Chicago. This is the Bulls 4th game in 6 days on the road. Judging by this line, oddsmakers are confident in a blowout and we are too. Lay the points.
FERRINGO
2-Unit Play. Take Clemson (-1.5) over Virginia
The road team is 7-3 ATS in this series. Virginia is 1-7 over its last eight games while Clemson continues its steady play.
2-Unit Play. Take Cleveland State (-3.5) over Wright State
The Vikings have fallen hard and fast, but after four tough road games they are back home. That should provide them the boost that they need as they take down Wright State, a club that has struggled a bit on the road. Wright just played against a D-II school. And generally teams don’t play as well in their next game after playing a scrub team this late in the year.
2-Unit Play. Take Wisconsin-Green Bay (-2) over Valparaiso
I think the loss to Butler has some lingering effects. Green Bay lost at Valpo earlier in the season and I think they get the better of the matchup here. Valpo is in a 2-5-2 ATS slide.
2-Unit Play. Take Northern Arizona (-5) over Portland State
Portland State rolled over NAU earlier in the season but now the Jacks get some revenge. They’re tough at home and while this one may not be a blowout I think they pull away late and earn a tie for first place in the conference.
1.5-Unit Play. Take Indiana (-1.5) over Illinois
Here’s my square play of the day. Indiana is just better than Illinois, who is a bottom feeder. There are clearly two tiers in the Big 10 and you might as well blindly bet any of the top four or five teams against any of the lower level schools. Eric Gordon is going to want to put on a show.
STRIKE POINT SPORTS
2-Unit Play. #511 Take Clemson -1 over Virginia (7 pm)
The Tigers are the better team, and Virginia hasn't shown me enough at 1-6 in ACC play. Clemson has done well this year at 16-5, and its depth and team defensive pressure will be the difference here. The road team is 7-3 ATS in the last ten meetings, and they'll come through in Charlottesville.
2-Unit Play. #524 Take Wisconsin Green Bay -1 over Valparaiso (8 pm)
After dropping a tough one at home to Butler on Tuesday, look for the Crusaders to have a hangover on the road. The Phoenix are 8-1 at home this season, while Valpo is just 4-5 on the road this season, and only 4-6 in their last ten games. Wisconsin Green Bay, behind all conference player Mike Schachtner, will cash at home in this Horizon match-up.
2-Unit Play. #537 Take Utah State +1 over Fresno State (10 pm)
The Aggies have really come on strong of late at 6-1 in WAC play. They are 16-6 on the year and have turned it up by winning nine of their last ten games overall. Conversely, Fresno State is just 3-6 in its last nine, and I think Utah State takes care of business away from home and remains the lone team atop the conference with just one loss
DOCS
3 Unit Play. #510 Take Pittsburgh -3 over West Virginia
It continues to amaze me that the Mountaineers continue to get low number when playing good teams on the road. Pittsburgh is ranked 12th in the nation and is the only team to knock off Duke this season. The Panthers have won two of the last three meetings at the Peterson Events Center and will pull way late because they always win the games they are supposed to win.
3 Unit Play. #531 Take Indiana -1 ½ over Illinois
On paper it makes no sense why the spread is this low. Illinois is the most disappointing team in the Big Ten and many are starting to wonder if Bruce Weber can get the job done with his own recruits. This is a water downed Big 10 this season yet the Illini sit at 2-8 in the conference and are just 6-5 when playing at Assembly Hall this season. The Illini have trouble scoring points and with Eric Gordon starting to get healthy, all signs point to a rout by the Hoosiers.
3 Unit Play. #536 Take Santa Barbara -3 over Fullerton
A key game in the Big West takes place when the Gauchos try and move up the standing. Santa Barbara already pounded Fullerton once this season scoring 87 points and winning by double-digits and we expect history to repeat itself of Thursday. James Powell will get it done again for SB and we collect big in the process.
3 Unit Play. #546 Take Nevada -14 over San Jose State
The Wolf Pack have won 10 of their last 11 in this series, but that one loss came this season and thus they will have revenge on their mind as well. Justin Graham is still out for the Spartans and they are just 2-6 in the WAC Standing. Nevada has won 15 of their last 16 games in Reno and need some victories against bottom feeder teams in order to improve their standing for the upcoming WAC tournament that they must win in order to be in the NCAA Tournament yet again.
3 Unit Play. #570 Take Northern Arizona -5 over Portland State
A low number with the Jacks playing @ the Skydome is usually a must play for this handicapper and tonight will be no different. They also have revenge on their mind as well, as the Vikings won the first meeting of the season between these two programs. NAU plays a run and gun style and are much more effective at home and thus they are able to cover big numbers.
John Ryan 10* Pac 10 Goy: Ucla
Ben Burns NHL Pers. Fav Minnesota Wild -150
Black Magic Sports
1 Unit on Murray State +1.5
There definitely has to be an underdog in this game, but it most certainly should not be Murray State tonight. Murray State is 15-6 straight up against Eastern Kentucky since 1997. They completely own this series and are clearly the better team once again in 2008. Murray State has won 9 out of their last 10 games overall, their only loss coming in overtime on the road to a very good Austin Peay team. Murray State is 22-8 ATS in road games after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 against the spread since 1997. Eastern Kentucky is 1-8 ATS in home games after playing 2 consecutive games as an underdog over the last 3 seasons. Cash in with Murray State as the underdog.
BEN BURNS
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
ST LOUIS
Game: Xavier vs. St. Louis Game Time: 2/7/2008 9:00:00 PM Prediction: St. Louis Reason: I'm taking the points with ST. LOUIS. The Musketeers are a solid and well-balanced team. However, they've been "nothing special" on the road, winning just three of their six true road games while going 2-4 ATS. The Musketeers, who have a huge weekend showdown with St. Joseph's on deck, have also struggled here at St. Louis, losing their last three games here. Last season, the Musketeers were listed as -4 point favorites when they traveled here but the Billikens won by a score of 76-65. The previous season, Xavier was laying -5 points but lost by 14, 61-47. The Billikens are playing excellent defense at home once again this season. In their last game, they held Massachussetts to just 59 points, en route to a 71-59 victory. That was no small feat when considering that the Minutemen entered that game averaging a whopping 86.5 points per game on the road. That win brought the Billikens to 9-3 here for the season with the three losses coming by an average of less than seven points. Naturally, coach Rick Majerus was pleased with his team's effort: "I was real proud of them. For the most part, we controlled the tempo of the game. It was a nice win for us." The Billikens have already beaten a nationally ranked team (Rhode Island was ranked 23 at the time) here this season. They did so by controlling (slowing) the tempo and playing great defense, eventually limiting the Rams to just 61 points. The Billikens wer 12-4 SU/ATS in February the past couple of seasons and are a highly profitable 51-23 ATS in the month of February over the past decade. I believe that they're under-valued again tonight. Look for them to slow down the Musketeers and improve to 4-1 ATS the last five times that they were listed as home underdogs in the +6.5 to +9 range. *TV GOW
WISCONSIN GREEN BAY
Game: Valparaiso vs. Wis-Green Bay Game Time: 2/7/2008 8:00:00 PM Prediction: Wis-Green Bay Reason: I'm playing on WISCONSIN-GREEN BAY. The Crusaders won and covered when they hosted the Phoenix last month. However, I expect the revenge-minded Phoenix to have the advantage tonight. In addition to playing on it's homecourt, Wisconsin-Green Bay, which has an impressive 7-2 record in games decided by eight or fewer points, has the schedule in it's favor. The Phoenix last played on Saturday, earning a road win at Detroit. Conversely, Valparaiso just played on Tuesday, suffering an extremely tough 3-point loss vs. Butler. That game, shown on ESPN2, was the first nationally televised game at Valparaiso's Athletics-Recreation Center since Purdue came to town in November 1997. There was a ton of hype and a huge crowd. The Crusaders really fought hard and I expect that they will have "left something on the court." In other words, I won't be surprised if they're a bit flat here. While they earned a "push" in the loss vs. Butler, the Crusaders are now an ugly 0-3-2 ATS their past five games. The Phoenix are 3-1 ATS the last four times they were attempting to avenge a road loss and 12-8 ATS their last 20 in that situation. They're also 4-1 SU/ATS the last five times that they were listed as a home favorite (or pick'em) of three points or less. For the season, they're 7-1 at home, bringing them to 29-10 their last 39 games here. This season, they've outscored opponents by nine points a game on this floor. Look for them to continue their strong homecourt play, earning an important victory and avenging last month's loss.
WASHINGTON STATE
Game: UCLA vs. Washington St. Game Time: 2/7/2008 10:30:00 PM Prediction: Washington St. Reason: I'm taking the points with WASHINGTON STATE. I believe this game means more to the Cougars and I expect them to be the hungrier team. For starters, they've lost two in a row and desperately need to avoid losing three in a row for the first time this season and first time since Tony Bennett became coach. Additionally, they'll have major "revenge" on their minds as the Bruins blew them out at UCLA last month. First place was on the line for that game and the Cougars were 14-0 at the time. Naturally, the Cougars would like nothing more than to avenge that defeat. In addition to having homecourt advantage, the Cougars won't have to deal with Bruins' forward Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, as he is out with a sprained left ankle. As UCLA coach Ben Howland noted: "He guards the best players in this league, night on and out. Losing him we lose a key guy at both ends of the floor." Howland also commented about what a hostile environment he expects to face: "It's a difficult place to play. There'll be a great crowd there." It's hard to find too many negative things to say about UCLA. The Bruins have been pretty ordinary against top defensive teams in the second half of the season the last few years though, going 9-10 ATS the last 19 times they faced a team which allows 64 points or less after 15 or more games have been played. Overall, the Bruins are just 35-41 ATS their last 76 lined games against teams which allow 64 points or less per game. They'll be facing one of the tougher unit's in the league here as the Cougars have allowed a mere 51.2 points per game on this floor. I expect the Cougars to deliver their very best effort tonight and for that to be enough to lead to the minor upset. *False Favorite GOM
BEN BURNS
HOCKEY
MINNESOTA
Game: Dallas Stars vs. Minnesota Wild Game Time: 2/7/2008 8:05:00 PM Prediction: Minnesota Wild Reason: I'm laying the price with MINNESOTA. I played on the Wild when they hosted the Stars in early January. At the time, I noted that the Wild and their fans still get a little extra "fired up" when the Stars (formerly the Minnesota North Stars) come to town. Minnesota won that game 6-3. Note that the Wild also won the previous series meeting here, taking that contest by a score of 2-1. Yes, the Stars have been playing well recently and come in on a 4-game winning streak. They haven't been a good bet over the years when on a winning streak though. In fact, after having won three or more consecutive games, the Stars are a money-burning -10.4 net games vs. the moneyline the past few seasons and -29.9 since 1996. It's also worth noting that the Stars will be playing just their third isolated road game (1-game road trip) of the season. That has proven to be a difficult spot for them as they lost both the previous games by scores of 4-3 at Colorado and 5-1 at Nashville. The Wild, 5-2 the last seven times they hosted a team from the Pacific division, have been excellent at home the past few years. During that stretch, they've gone a solid 30-17 when playing a home game with an over/under line of five or less. While the Wild saw their 3-game winning streak snapped last time out, they still played very well. In fact, Coach Lemaire went so far as to say: "I thought we played our best game of the year. I'm really happy the way our players played. We played hard. We got a point." Veteran Brian Rolston had similar feelings: "I thought we took it to them for the majority of the game. We've got to take that out of it. We took a big step tonight..." Look for the Wild to build off that effort tonight, as they continue their strong play and cool off their "rivals" from the Pacific. *Personal Favorite