BEN BURNS
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
ARIZONA STATE
Game: Stanford vs. Arizona St. Game Time: 2/14/2008 10:30:00 PM Prediction: Arizona St. Reason: I'm taking the points with ARIZONA STATE. The Sun Devils will have some major "payback" on their minds this evening. That's because they had won 10 straight games before losing at Stanford last month. Note that those 10 victories included the likes of Xavier, Oregon, Arizona and California. Things turned ugly after the loss to the Cardinal though as the team reeled off five straight losses. However, the Sun Devils finally were able to "right the ship" last time out, scoring an upset win at Arizona, after trailing by as many as 16 points in the first half. Jeff Pendergraph, who leads the Pac-10 in field-goal-percentage, had a massive day, chipping in 29 points. The Sun Devils' defense did the rest as they held the Wildcats to a mere 54 points. That's no small accomplishment, considering that Arizona had previously been averaging 78 points per game at home. I expect Pendergraph and co. to have regained some confidence from that important win and for them to carry the positive momentum into tonight's "revenge" clash on FSN. Granted, the Cardinal have been rolling. They failed to cover last time out though and may look past tonight's game ahead to their next game, which comes vs. a high profile Arizona squad. I believe that the inflated lines that come with having a national ranking have started to catch up with Cardinal and I look for the revenge-minded Sun Devils to score the minor "upset." *Main Event
IOWA
Game: Michigan vs. Iowa Game Time: 2/14/2008 9:00:00 PM Prediction: Iowa Reason: I'm laying the points with IOWA. The Wolverines come in off a home win over Penn State while the Hawkeyes come in off a loss at Minnesota. That's not a negative though. In fact, Iowa has gone 15-5 SU and 14-5-1 ATS the last 20 times it was coming off a loss vs. a conference opponent. During the same stretch, Michigan was just 7-11 SU and 7-10-1 ATS when coming off a win vs. a conference opponent. The Spartans have also been horrible as road underdogs of this size. In fact, they've gone 1-12 SU and 2-11 ATS the last 13 times they were road underdogs of +6.5 to +9 points, including a 0-7 SU and 1-6 ATS mark the past three seasons. During that time, note that Iowa was 3-1 SU/ATS as a home favorite in the -6.5 to -9 range. The Hawkeyes already handled the Wolverines at Michigan, winning by a score of 68-60. While the Wolverines are much worse on the road, the Hawkeyes are significantly better when playing at home. The Hawekeyes are arguably an improved team from when these clubs faced each other last month and they've covered the spread in five of their last six here at home. These teams last met here in February of 2006 and the Hawkeyes crushed the Wolverines by a score of 94-66. The Hawkeyes know that they can't afford to lose any "winnable" Big-10 home games. Look for the their strong defense (allow 53.7 ppg at home) to shut down a relatively weak Michigan offense, which manages a mere 61 on the road, leading to another convincing win and cover. *Valentine's Day Massacre
NHL
CAROLINA
Game: Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Carolina Hurricanes Game Time: 2/14/2008 7:05:00 PM Prediction: Carolina Hurricanes Reason: I'm laying the price with CAROLINA. Both teams played Boston in their last game. Carolina beat the Bruins on Tuesday, while Pittsburgh lost against them last night. That's worth mentioning as we find the Penguins at just 6-14 the last 20 times that they played the second of back to back games. Note that the Penguins have also lost three of their last four road games, giving up four goals in each of the losses. A look at the standings shows that the Hurricanes "need" this game more than their guests. Although they've got the Devils breathing down their necks, the Penguins still sit on top of the Atlantic. They're also still tied for the second most points in the Eastern Conference. Conversely, Carolina is currently tied for the tenth spot in the conference, with division rival Atlanta. However, playing in the Southeast division helps, as the Hurricanes are tied for the division lead, with both the Thrashers and the Capitals. In fact, they were on top of the division before both Atlanta and Washington earned points yesterday. My point about their poisition in the standings is that there should be no "complacency" on Carolina's part. As Sergei Samsonov said after the Boston win: "We're battling for a playoff spot. For us, it's almost a playoff game..." The Hurricanes lost their last two games at Pittsburgh. However, they've won three straight against the Penguins here in Carolina, outscoring the Pens by a 13-5 margin. Looking back further and we find that the Hurricanes have won six of the last seven series meetings here. They're also 19-11 (+5.7) when facing a team which defeated them in their previous meeting. Looking back a bit further and we find that the Hurricanes are 66-41 the past three seasons when playing a home game with an over/under line of six or greater. During the same stretch, the Pens were just 35-59 when playing a road game with an over/under line of six or great. I expect the Hurricanes to continue their home ice success in this series, earning another important two points.*Personal Favorite
Alex Smart
North Carolina State +4.5
Boston College is a young team, in a rebuilding season, and have shown their vulnerabilities of late with 6 straight losses. NC State their visiting opponents are hard working bunch, that are capable of making life difficult for any ACC rival they face, as was evident in recent wins against Florida State, Wake Forest and Virgina Tech. Here in this spot against a team that is struggling , a Wolfpack upset is not out of the question. Final notes & Key Trends: The underdog has cashed in 4 of the L/5 meetings. Take the points with NC State
FERRINGO
7-Unit Play. Take #736 Boise State (-2.5) over Nevada
I’ve had my eye on this one for a couple weeks. Boise State dominated the second half in Reno just a few short weeks ago - a surprisingly easy victory over a Nevada team that’s tough at home. So after a 15-point road victory I think Boise could even top that number tonight playing on their home court, where they are even better. Boise already has a win over BYU in Idaho and is taking on a Nevada team whose experience I’ve questioned from Day 1. Nevada has one player – Marcellus Kemp. Boise knows this. If they focus their defense on him, or if he gets into foul trouble, or if he’s just having a bad night, then this one could be a double-digit win. Boise scores more, has a better margin of victory, shoots a higher percentage, and is facing a team whose numbers (naturally) dip considerably on the road. I think we’ve found a strong spot here and I think Boise takes care of business.
2.5-Unit Play. Take #739 Georgia Tech (+8.5) over Clemson
Letdowns are kind of the theme of my picks today. We went against Clemson after their last heartbreaking overtime loss to North Carolina and cashed, so we’re going back to that mode of thought. Georgia Tech has been scrappy on the road this season – as opposed to their past road play – and I think they can make enough shots to take down a Clemson team that has to be looking past them.
2-Unit Play. Take #729 South Alabama (-6) over Middle Tennessee
Middle Tennessee is on a nice little 4-1 SU and ATS rush, but its been doing so against the weaker sisters of the Sun Belt. USA has been a much better road team than folks are giving them credit for (8-1 ATS this year) and I think MTSU has to beat them in order to get the cover here. I don’t think they will, so we’ll back the far superior team. USA’s last six road wins have come by an average of 10.2 points so hopefully they can just have an “average” night.
2.5-Unit Play. Take #709 Drexel (+12) over Old Dominion
Letdown. Old Dominion played a peak game over the weekend in a win over George Mason and I don’t think they will have back-to-back light’s out nights. The crowd won’t be as rowdy, the energy won’t be as electric and the play won’t be as sharp. Drexel is awful. But they have some physical talent and they have the best player on the floor. ODU should get a win, but don’t be surprised if they let the Dragons back in the game in the last 10 minutes for our cover.
2-Unit Play. Take #713 Illinois-Chicago (-3) over Detroit
Detroit stinks. UI-C is one of the hottest 3-point shooting teams in the country right now and they could bury the Titans with a barrage from the outside. Not really much more to say. I just think Detroit is awful.
2-Unit Play. Take #718 North Texas (-9) over Denver
When Denver loses, they lose big. North Texas was a juggernaut at home early in the season and I think they rekindle some of that magic. Denver’s Princeton offense is much more effective at home where they are a better shooting team and the have the home crowd to build them up. The Pioneers are the worst road team in the country, going winless to this point of the season with numerous blowout losses. As long as the Mean Green come out with an edge and come out in attack mode they should run Denver right out of the gym.
2.5-Unit Play. Take #734 Oregon (-7) over Washington
Washington is awful. I have a litany of reasons why they were lucky to beat UCLA, but the bottom line is that I’m looking for a letdown out of the Huskies after their big win. This is a huge game for the Ducks if they have any postseason aspirations, and this is one of the Pac-10’s more angry hoops rivalries. I don’t think the Huskies defend well enough to shut down the Ducks’ perimeter attack and with a boost from the home faithful I see Oregon getting a double-digit win.
3-Unit Play. Take #762 Charleston (-3) over Chattanooga
The Cougars are going to bounce back after their embarrassing loss to rival Davidson over the weekend. That was their worst performance of the season and that they take out their frustrations on a team that’s dropped its last four road games.
Jeff Alexander Sports
1 Unit on Iowa -6.5
Iowa beat Michigan by 8 on the road where the Hawks have not been very deadly this season. I like them to win on their home floor by double digits tonight. Iowa is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games and 8-4 ATS in its last 12. The Hawks are a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS versus the Wolverines the past 3 seasons. Michigan is 0-6 ATS revenging a straight up loss vs. an opponent as a favorite over the last 2 seasons, 2-11 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points since 1997, and 2-12 ATS in road games after playing a game as favorite over the last 2 seasons. Iowa is 10-1 ATS in home games off a road loss against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons and 11-3 ATS in home games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons. Take the Hawks at home.
Brandon Lang
10 Dime
Georgia Tech
Illinois-Chicago
Boise St
5 Dime
Middle Tenn State
Pacific
Miami Heat
Free - New Orleans
Johnny Guild
Butler Bulldogs - 18
Rutgers Scarlet Knights + 18
Stanford Cardinal - 3½
Mr.A's
Chicago Bulls - 2
Phoenix Suns - 6½
KEITH MARTIN
Michigan @ Iowa Over 118.5
Michigan plays a little more open with nearly 60 shots for and against on average. Looking over Michigans numbers on the road 61-70 is almost exact to their conf scores 62-70. Yes Iowa plays a slower style game. At home they have 58-53 ave score and in conf we see 55-60. The past 15 games for Michigan have ALL gone over todays posted total. The last time Iowa went over the 118.5 was on 1-19-08 when they played @ Michigan (68-60). The past 3 matchups and 6 of 10 have gone over. The first matchup of these two this season had a few numbers stick out. 47 threes were thrown up hitting 18. While thats a decent average, whats not is the free throws. Michigan only took 8 free throws (season ave is 16) and Iowa 24. The two made 20 of 32 free throws. So if they continue the decent shooting from the floor and get to the line more than they did the first time and hit around 70% from the line then this game goes over easy.
DOC'S
3 Unit Play. #713 Take Chicago -2 ½ over Detroit
A simply look at the conference records is all that you need to know about this game. The Titans are 1-12 in the conference this season and have been just 4-9 when playing Calihan Hall. Chicago gets their fourth road victory on the season.
4 Unit Play. #718 Take North Texas -9 over Denver
On paper this game appears to be pretty even, but the Pioneers are one of the worst road teams in the Nation. You can bet against them blindly on the road as they have yet to record a victory this season (0-12). All five of their conference losses have been by double-digits and this slow down style of offense has been dreadful on the road. The Mean Green also have revenge on their mind, as Denver knocked them off earlier this season and you can be sure this will be an all-out blowout.
3 Unit Play. #734 Take Oregon -7 ½ over Washington
The Ducks still have an outside chance of getting a birth in the NCAA Tournament by need a sweep of the Washington school in order to move their record over the .500 mark. Washington has lost four of their last five games and expect them to come out flat after a big win over UCLA on Sunday. The Ducks got back on track with a big victory over the Bears in the Bay Area and will follow that up with another victory tonight @ the Pit.
3 Unit Play. #737 Take Wake Forest +6 over Florida State
The road continues to be a winning ticket for the ACC and tonight the Demon Deacons will complete the season sweep of the Seminoles. FSU has lost six of their last eight games and will make it seven of their last nine on Thursday.
3 Unit Play. #739 Take Georgia Tech +8 ½ over Clemson
The Yellow Jackets seem to be competitive in all of their games recently and will take this one down to the wire just like they did last year in Death Valley. The Tigers are coming off a devastating loss to UNC in double overtime on Sunday in which they had their chances but could not put away the Tar Heels. They will not have much left in the tank tonight and Tech comes in and challenges the Tigers right down to the wire.
3 Unit Play. #765 Take Eastern Kentucky -6 over Jacksonville State
This team squads are heading in different directions in the Ohio Valley Conference, as the Colonials enter this game having won five straight affairs. The Gamecoks are just 2-20 on the season when you take out their non-division one victories. They are 2-14 in the conference and already lost by 16 points earlier this season in Kentucky. This game in Alabama will follow a similar path and we collect big in the process.
Gina
Miami Heat (9-42) at Chicago Bulls (20-31)
Both Miami and Chicago are two disappointing teams, The Heat have dropped eight straight and their last five road games, while the Bulls have lost seven of its last 10 and three of its last four at home. Despite that, the Bulls have been the better of the two, winning the last five meetings, going 5-0 ATS. Go with Chicago in the windy city. Miami is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road and the injury-riddled Bulls have won and covered the spread in the last four meetings, 8-2 ATS in its last 10 against them at the United Center.
Chicago Bulls
WINNING POINTS
***BEST BET
Massachusetts* over Fordham by 26
A team of lazy seniors whose only road wins came when the trip was 20 minutes to
the next borough on New York City’s Upper West Side (Manhattan, Columbia) must
ship itself into Amherst, MA and figure out how, with a group that struggles to score
and hit free throws, they can hang in there for 40 minutes against an opponent that
averages 83 points per game, whose head coach will have them well-versed in the
Pitino tradition of harassing the perimeter shooters – who don’t shoot well to begin
with. While Fordham’s Bryant Dunston is padding his rebounding numbers attempting
to put back his own misses and making one of every two free throws, the
Minutemen can run away and hide. MASSACHUSETTS, 87-61.
Nite Owl Sports
Game: Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets @ Clemson Tigers
Pick: 5 units (Play of the Day) ATS: Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets +9
Most of our customers and many regular readers of the Top Ten newsletter probably remember our free newsletter pick on Charlotte as a 15 point dog against Clemson, in Tigers’ first game after their devastating last second OT loss to North Carolina, a game which Charlotte not only covered easily but won SU by 10 points against an emotionally “shot” Clemson team. Well, guess what? Tonight we have virtually the same situation, with Clemson again coming off of a second heart-breaking, gut-wrenching OT loss to this same North Carolina team Sunday night on national TV, in which they had the lead by 11 at the half and were ahead for the entire second half before finally being ‘caught” by the Heels at the end of “regulation,” despite having the final possession but being unable to get off a decent shot. Tigers then blew a chance to win it in the first OT, due primarily to poor FT shooting (a Shaq-like 1-7 from the “charity stripe” for the game), and again being unable to score on their final possession of that first OT due to poor shot selection. As mentioned in Nite Owl’s most recent Top Ten article (in Monday’s newsletter), our biggest play of that day was taking Carolina at – 7.5 points on the second half line, which, when combined with their 11 point HT deficit, resulted in an adjusted game line of +3.5 for a team that was 52-0 at home vs its opponent (but unfortunately for our Top Ten customers, that was only an “unofficial” play, as the Top Ten site is not set up for releasing half time picks.
But now let’s focus on this game, between Clemson and long time bitter rival, Ga Tech, being played at Littlejohn Coliseum in Clemson, So Carolina. As was the case with Charlotte, our pick on Ga Tech here is more a pick against Clemson than a “vote of confidence” on Tech, but we have two very strong factors working in Tech’s (and our) favor tonite. First and most important is the fact that as mentioned above, the frustrating result of that OT loss on Sunday once again ripped the hearts out of the Clemson team, coaches and fans. How can a team recover from that kind of devastating loss? Well, most teams do, eventually, but as we saw the last time this happened to Tigers, very few recover right away, and we have won a lot of bets riding this “post-heartbreak” system of going against a team which has just suffered a devastating loss, especially if they are favored as is the case here, until they play a good game in winning outright and preferably “covering” the spread as well, with the biggest bet against them in their first game after the “heartbreak” loss (i.e., this game for Clemson). The other factor in our favor here is Clemson’s ineptitude from the FT line, which is not only a weak 60% at home TY but also a putrid 57.5% over their last 5 games, including that 1-7 in their LG, at Carolina. Their poor FT shooting also did them in against Carolina the first time, as in that game they were a pathetic 14-27 (52%) from the “charity stripe,” as compared to Carolina’s robust 24-30 for 80%. And in some other home games, it’s even been worse, like their 10-26 (38%) free throw “brickfest” (Hell, even Shaq and I could combine for a better FT shooting % than that) as a ten point home fave in an early season 3 point non-covering win against Purdue, a game in which they should have covered (and would have, with just 8 more FTs made, which would have resulted from a “normal” 69% FT shooting %). Clemson has played four conference home games TY vs a comparable (but slightly inferior) level of competition than that presented by Ga Tech, in addition to the two aforementioned home point spread failures vs Charlotte and Purdue, and won all four SU (3-1 ATS in them), but had to “work overtime” to beat both Wake Forest and Fla State. But let’s look at how well Tigers fared from the FT line in those two close, OT home wins over Wake Forest and Fla State. Well, they were slightly above average at 63.5% vs Fla state, but absolutely dreadful at 44% FTs vs Wake, in a game that never would have gone to OT with Clemson shooting even 55% from the FT line, and which Wake helped Clemson’s cause by converting an equally “brick-like” 47% of their own FTs.
So we have a strong “case” against Clemson covering the “number,” but what about Ga Tech? They have been decent but not great as a road dog TY, and are 3-1 SU and ATS as a road dog in ACC games, but their road success has been more against B teams like Va, Wake Forest and NC State, all of whom they have beaten SU, while they are 0-2 SU and ATS in their two road games TY against A teams like Clemson, losing by 12 at UConn and 10 at Miami, despite leading by 4 at the half at UConn and being down by only 2 at HT at Miami. However, this is a road-oriented series, with the road team covering 6 of last 8 and GT being 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS in their last 4 at Clemson. Moreover, there is a lot of “room” in this line, and with “heartbroken” Clemson still licking their emotional “wounds,” and their confidence no doubt shattered, we predict that (i) Clemson will not “bring” their “A game” tonite and (ii) Ga Tech will at least cover this generous spread. The line has dropped a bit (to 8 or 8.5) at some sports books since last night, when we posted this pick to give our customers the benefit of the “fat” opening line. but we still strongly recommend taking Tech at +8 or better.
But we will not put all of our “Ga Tech money” on the full game ATS line. Even though the Top Ten site is not set up for releasing official first half picks, we will split our five ATS units on Ga Tech into two plays, one a two unit first half pick at +4.5 or 5, and the other a three unit full game pick at +8 or better (but this pick is "officially" at +9). We expect Tech to come out strong and break on top in the first half just like Charlotte did at Clemson in “post Carolina heart-break” game #1, but just to be sure and to get a bigger sampling of first half performance by both teams in their respective modes for this game (Clemson home, GT away), we broke down the first half performances of each team in their recent (since jan 1) home games (Clemson) and road games (GT) against comparable levels of competition. We found that Clemson is just 2-4 ATS on the first half line in the six games surveyed for an average of a one point HT lead, while GT was tied or ahead at the half in 3 of their six games surveyed, with an average HT deficit of 4 points. We also looked at the last two games between these two at Clemson, and saw that Tech was ahead at the half in both games despite losing both, one by 13 and the other (last year) a one point loss/cover. Speaking of those two Tech losses at Clemson, we looked at what happened (how and why Tech lost), and both times they shot over 50% but lost the game on TOs (at –10 LY and –9 the year before). But looking at Tech’s “numbers" in the aforementioned six road games surveyed from TY, they were in the “minus column” in TOs in only one of the six, so we don’t expect TOs to be a major problem this time for Tech. While it’s even more difficult to predict which team will cover the first half line than it is to predict which team will cover the full game line, there are certain situations where a first half bet is justified, and we believe this is one of them. One final word about first and second half betting on this game – in the unlikely event Clemson is ahead at the half, has covered the half time line and the resulting adjusted game line (using the HT score and the second half line) gives you GT at +10 or better, we would recommend a second half bet on Tech for another unit or two (absent a “game ending” first half injury to any key Ga Tech player), as this is an intense rivalry where neither team will give up and no lead is safe until the final “horn” goes off.
Our final recommendation is to take a “shot” at GT winning the game and taking them with this tempting money line spread of +350 (risking just two units to win a huge 7 units), based both on all of the foregoing and the 10 point SU home loss suffered by Clemson to Charlotte in January in a virtually identical bad situation for Clemson. As stated earlier, we expect GT to break out on top and very likely to be ahead at the half, and we also expect Clemson to recover somewhat in the second half, but maybe not enough to catch up and win the game, with their poor FT shooting. However, Clemson has won two ACC home games in overtime TY, so we will tread somewhat lightly with this money line pick.
3G Sports
10* Stanford
5* Drexel
5* CAL
4* Geo Tech
Tom Stryker
3* Oregon
Scott Spreitzer
4* Ill-Chicago
Brandon Lovell
10* Heat
10* Ga Southern
5* W. Carolina
Black Magic Sports
NCAA Basketball
5 Unit Black Magic Horizon League GOTW on Youngstown State +18.5
Youngstown State will easily stay within the number tonight against a Butler team that is clearly getting too much respect here. Butler has won 11 out of their last 12 games, but they have not beaten any of their foes by more than 16 points. Butler has squeaked out a couple close wins lately and they will have to settle for squeaking this one out tonight. Youngstown State has lost 7 straight game at Butler, but they have gone 5-2 ATS which is what matters most. Youngstown State is 7-1 ATS off a loss against a conference rival this season. Cash in with Youngstown State as the underdog.
3 Unit Sharp Play on Arizona -7
Arizona will bounce back in a big way after a bad loss to Arizona State their last time out. They will be playing a California team that has failed to cover the spread in 5 out of their last 7 games. Cal just lost at home to Oregon by 22 points. Arizona is 10-3 ATS when playing only their 2nd game in a week this season. Arizona is 14-3 ATS after playing a game where both teams score 65 points or less since 1997. Cash in with Arizona as the favorite.
NBA
4 Unit NBA on TNT Total of the Night on Bulls UNDER 195.5
With all of the injuries both teams are facing, the final score of this contest won?t touch the total set by odds makers. Chicago has been without their two best scorers in Luol Deng and Ben Gordon lately and they are both expected to sit out again tonight. Miami is 22-11 UNDER in road games off a home loss over the last 2 seasons. Chicago is 18-7 UNDER in home games after 2 straight games giving up 10 or less offensive rebounds over the last 3 seasons. Cash in with the UNDER 195.5 points.