Peter Loshak
Nassau Coliseum on the Island should be a cozy rink for the home team and their fans. Side with the New York Islanders at home when they host the Tampa Bay Lightning.
On Thursday in the NHL, I think there is modest but clear value with the New York Islanders at home over Tampa Bay at a relatively low line of -110.
Islanders -110 to snuff Lightning
A big reason this line is low may be that the Islanders, who aren’t exactly world beaters when they are in top form, have been hit hard with injuries of late, particularly on defense. Despite this, however, the Islanders seem to have become energized, and have now actually won five games in a row, their longest winning streak in three years. Of course, this will likely end sometime very soon, and it may well end with a resounding thud. But I don’t see tomorrow’s foe, Tampa Bay, as likely to mount a strong challenge to end it.
Tampa Bay, of course, is in last place in the Eastern Conference with little chance of making the playoffs, eight points behind the Islanders who are in the thick of it in 10th place and fighting well to make it. The Lightning have sub-.900 goaltending and I’m not sure they will have a lot of fight here on the road, on a back-to-back, off of a demoralizing OT loss in Buffalo on Wednesday.
The Islanders, for all their mediocrity and misfortune, are proving to be a gritty and resilient team, and goaltender Rick DiPietro is rising to the occasion in the stretch run, playing well and seeming focused.
This should be a competitive game, and the Islanders will once again have to reach down for something extra to keep their winning streak alive. But I do think they have a better chance of coming away with a win than a line of -110 dictates, so I’ll go with those odds on the Islanders being able to manufacture another win on Thursday evening.
Bob Harvey
The Jack Stephens Arena in Little Rock will be rocking for this Sun Belt affair, and the visiting Indians from Arkansas State plus the points are the right play vs. the UALR Trojans.
The Arkansas State Indians enter Thursday’s game looking to snap a seven-game skid, while the Little Rock Trojans have dropped their last two games and four of their last five. The Indians are currently in seventh place and the Trojans tied for second in the Sun Belt’s West Division. Arkansas State won the first meeting of the season by 15 points and while they probably wont duplicate they should be able to keep it close.
Indians +7 to take down Trojans
UALR is 15-10 overall and 7-7 in Sun Belt Conference play, leaving the Trojans just one game out of first place in the West Division. Little Rock started league play with a 6-3 record before dropping four of their last five, including the last two games in a row. The Trojans are ranked among the top three teams in the Sun Belt Conference in six statistical categories, including No. 1 in field goal percentage defense (.404) and three-point field goal percentage defense (.285).
Little Rock doesn’t have any players averaging double figures, but seven players averaging at least six and 10 players at least four. Steven Moore leads the team in scoring with 9.1 points per game.
Arkansas State has held six teams below 40 percent shooting and is 6-0 in those games. The Indians have also held four opponents below .300 from beyond the arc and are 4-0 in those games. The Indians have outscored their opponent in the second half in eight of their last 11 games and while they hold an 1-15 record when trailing at the half, they have actually outscored nine of those 16 teams in the second half. ASU has outscored its opponent in the second half in 14 of its 26 games.
Arkansas State +7
Al McMordie
Willie Nelson's On the road again should be the theme song for this series as the road squad is 24-5 ATS since '93. Side with Oregon to cover as small dogs at USC Thursday.
Our Thursday night college basketball selection is on the Oregon Ducks plus the points on the road over Southern Cal.
Ducks +5 quack & cover at Trojans
Earlier this season, USC went up to Eugene and upset the Ducks 95-86 as 3½-point underdogs. But that's par for the course in this Pac-10 series, as the road team is 24-5 ATS since 1993, including a perfect 15-0-2 ATS when priced from -1 to +6½ points.
Oregon, itself, is 12-1-2 ATS on the road at USC, and we'll back Ernie Kent's men tonight. Take the points.
Oregon +5
Tom Freese
Game: Oregon at USC
Prediction: Oregon
Reason: Oregon is 25-11 ATS after allowing 65 or less points in two straight games and they are 7-1 ATS after winning two of their last three games. The Ducks are 7-2-1 ATS off an ATS loss. USC is 6-20 ATS as home favorites of 3.5 to 6 points and they are 2-10 ATS after scoring 25 or less points in the first half of their last game.
PLAY ON OREGON -
Marc Lawrence
Play On: Arizona State
Note: Sun Devils travel to Pullman to meet the Cougars at Friel Court with same season homecourt loss revenge on their minds tonight. The key to this contest is ASU's urgency as they are 16-8 on the season, sitting 'on the bubble' at the moment. With WSU staring dead ahead to consecutive same season revengers against Arizona, California and Stanford, and standing just 2-8 SU & 1-9 ATS as a series host when the Sun Devils own a win percentage of .600 or better, we'll grab the points in this payback tonight.
Steve Merril
PICK: Arizona State
REASON FOR PICK: Arizona State is 3-1 ATS in the past four meetings with Washington State, including a hard fought 56-55 home loss last month. The Sun Devils lost by just one point, despite shooting just 2-for-14 from three-point range and being outshot 46%-14% from beyond the arc. Arizona State actually dominated the game down low and outshot the Cougars 61% to 43% from two-point range.
Arizona State should be able to keep the game close again tonight as they are a very efficient offensive team that shoots 47% FG and commits just 12 turnovers per game. They are also a solid defensive squad that allows just 61.8 points per game and 41% FG (versus opponents that average 68.8 ppg and 44.8% FG).
Both teams prefer a slow, half-court style and this favors the big underdog as Arizona State qualifies in a 46-18 ATS situation, while Washington State fits a negative 35-68 ATS situation.
Brian Marshall
Plays On: Oregon +5.5
Game Analyses: There is a lot of value with the underdog Oregon tonight as they take on USC.
It's a known fact that Oregon has the better offense. In fact, the Oregon offense in itself will keep Oregon in this game with a chance to win it outright.
The road team has done very well in this series. In fact, the road team is 16-4 ATS in the last 20 meetings between these teams.
The underdog has also done very well in this series. This is shown by the underdog being 8-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings between these teams.
Take Oregon +5.5
Alex Smart
Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Montreal Canadiens
Prediction: Montreal Canadiens
Reason: A flash back to the 70s and the days when Guy Lafleur and Ken Dryden were on the ice for the NHLs most storied franchise occurred the other night when the Montreal Canadiens came back from 5 goals down to win a 6-5 thriller against the NY Rangers. Look for the momentum of that win to continue tonight against the visiting Pittsburgh Penguins. Play on the Habs to bring home the dough
JWhip
Heat/Rockets UNDER 188.5 (1 Unit)
Talk about two teams that our going in totally opposite directions.
The Miami Heat are one of the worst teams in the league at 9-42.
The Houston Rockers meanwhile are going for their 10th win-a-row.
Houston is rolling right now, thanks in large part to their defensive play.
The Rockets are allowing just 84 points per game over their last seven, and Tracy McGrady said "We are developing into a team like the Pistons a great defensive team."
Miami is scoring a league-low 92 ppg, and scored just that last time out against a Bulls team which was allowing teams to score above the century mark with ease.
Since the addition of Shawn Marion the Heat are still 0-3 SU and just 1-2 ATS. Marion has brought some life to the team, but it still hasnt been enough to get this team going.
Houstons big two McGrady and Yao Ming were a combined 9-for-38 from the field for 33 points in Tuesdays win. McGrady is averaging just 12 points and shooting 32 percent from the field over his last five games, which is why defense has been the key for them to keep this win streak alive.
Take Under the Total as Thursday's Primetime Best Bet.
ANTON WINS
Today's 3 unit NBA play is Miami +11.5
EZ Winners
1 STAR: ARIZONA (PICK) over Washington
(Risking $110 to win $100)
Brandon Lang
15 Dime - Washington
5 Dime - South Alabama
5 Dime - Virginia
Free Pick - Michigan
Armvin Sports
NCAA
Minnesota -8
Mid Tennessee State 2.5
NHL
Philadelphia -115
Ny Islanders -108
JEFF BONDS
CBB/NBA INSIDER REPORT
Pittsburgh at #21 Notre Dame 7:00 PM EST ESPN
Pittsburgh as won each of the last five meetings against Notre Dame, including the last two games at the Joyce Center. The Panthers have won 12 of its last 20 road games under head coach Jamie Dixon. EDGE: PITTSBURGH
On February 15, Marquette handed Pitt its largest Big East regular season loss (18 points) since Dixon became head coach. Prior to the Marquette game, the Panthers have never lost a Big east regular season road game by more than eight points under Dixon. EDGE: PITTSBURGH
Notre Dame has won 17 of its last 20 games and their 9-3 start in the Big East matches the best start ever by an Irish team in league play. EDGE: NOTRE DAME
Notre Dames 15-game Big East homecourt win streak is its longest since the Irish joined the conference in 1995-96 and matches the third-longest in conference history. BIG EDGE: NOTRE DAME
Massachusetts at Rhode Island 7:00 PM EST ESPN2
Four of the last five meetings, all of which have been won by the home team, have been decided by three points or less including this years earlier match-up. If you remove last seasons 22-point UMass win, the average margin of victory in the last four games is 2.5 points. EDGE: UMASS
UMass head coach Travis Ford has installed an up-tempo offense in the 2007-08 season, as the Minutemen are averaging 82.2 points per game, up from 77.1 points through 25 games last season. EDGE: OVER
Rhode Island is 11-1 at home this season, marking the fifth time in the last six seasons that the team has won 10 or more games at the Ryan Center. EDGE: RHODE ISLAND
Michigan at Minnesota 9:00 PM EST ESPN
With the 80-70 win against Ohio State, Michigan posted it first three-game winning streak of the season. The Wolverines have rattled off wins against Penn State, at Iowa and against the Buckeyes. EDGE: MICHIGAN
Michigan has a 5-0 record when scoring 70 points or better this season, but the Wolverines may have their problems against the Gophers on Wednesday night. Minnesota is allowing a paltry 63.8 points per game on the season and just 61.8 at home. EDGE: MINNESOTA
Minnesotas bench has provided a big punch this season, outscoring its opponents in 19 of the teams 24 games. The Gophers hold a cumulative 616-381 bench scoring edge overall. EDGE: MINNESOTA
BIG AL
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs minus the points over Minnesota. Yesterday, San Antone bolstered its front line by trading (little-used) Francisco Elson and (injured) Brent Barry (who may end up back with the Spurs in April after the Sonics waive him) for PF Kurt Thomas. Thomas is a terrific addition, as he will provide scoring with his mid-range jumper, and he'll be great on the defensive board. San Antonio won its third straight game Tuesday, 85-65, against Charlotte. That was the Spurs' best defensive outing of the year. It was also San Antonio's seventh win out of its last eight games, and if one scans the results of those eight games, one sees that the Spurs have really clamped down on defense. Charlotte converted just 28% of its shots, and only two of the Spurs' last nine foes has shot better than 45% for the game. Defense and rebounding has been the hallmark of the Spurs' championship teams, and that should be the key tonight. For Minnesota, the key stat is rebounding. The Timberwolves are a 'respectable' 10-17 this season when outrebounding their foe, but an awful 1-24 when they've been outrebounded. In its last game vs. S.A., Minny was outrebounded 47-40, and not surprisingly lost 105-88. The Spurs also won their other game this season vs. the T-Wolves, 106-91, and outrebounded them in that game 46-43. San Antonio will receive a boost tonight with the return of NBA Finals MVP Tony Parker, who has been sidelined 23 days, and coach Gregg Popovich plans to give him 15 minutes of playing time tonight. We had a big play on Minnesota Tuesday night vs. Philly, and the T-Wolves rewarded us with a 104-88 victory. But I don't think they'll string back-to-back wins together, as home dogs of 5+ points, with a win percentage less than .300, are a dreadful 20% ATS since 1991 off a home win, if matched up against a .620 (or better) non-division foe. The Spurs have also covered six of seven in this series, and won't be complacent tonight as they're well-aware of the importance of every game for the Western Conference playoff seedings.
Take San Antonio
Black Widow Sports Picks
1* on Weber State +1
Weber State should not be the underdog here. Weber owns a 9-2 home record this season and they have already beaten Montana on the road back on January 20th. Beating up on Montana is nothing new for this Weber State squad. Weber has won 7 of their last 10 home meetings with Montana. Weber State is a blistering 12-3 against the spread in their last 15 showdowns with Montana. Weber State is 7-0 ATS off a road loss against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons. Weber is one of the best teams in the country at bouncing back from road losses when returning home.
Take Weber State and the points.
InfoPlays
3* on Dayton -1
Dayton is one of those teams that is clearly on the bubble right now in terms of the NCAA Tournament. With their 17-7 record, they will not allow themselves to fall to an 11-13 La Salle club tonight. Dayton has won 13 of their last 17 meetings with La Salle so history is clearly on their side. La Salle is just 1-4 ATS in all home games this season. La Salle is 0-6 ATS at home when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons. La Salle is 11-25 ATS in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) since 1997.
Bet an inspired Dayton team on the road.