Jeff Alexander Sports
1 Unit on Oregon State +27.5
Dropping the hammer on Oregon State does not mean anything to this UCLA squad, which will be much more concerned with their upcoming game with Oregon. Oregon State was just embarrassed by Washington at home by 38 points. We can expect a much better effort tonight as the Beavers will lay it all out on the line against the best team in the Pac. Oregon State is only 3-10 on the road this season, but because oddsmakers have undervalued them so badly, the Beavers are 8-4 ATS in those games. Plain and simple, plays on Underdogs of 20 or more points off a home loss by 10 points or more against an opponent coming off a road win are 23-4 ATS the last 5 seasons.
Take the Beavers.
Locksmith Sports Picks
1 Unit on UMass +6
The road has actually been the best place to bet the Minutemen this season and that's where we'll take them tonight. UMass is 8-4 ATS on the road this season and it comes into this showdown off a much needed win over St. Louis to gain some momentum. Rhode Island has lost all its momentum with back-to-back losses SU and 3 straight ATS. Rhode Island is only 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 contests. UMass beat Rhode Island at home back on Feb. 7th and I like the Minutemen again tonight catching more points than they should be. UMass is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings at Rhode Island. Rhode Island is 2-11 ATS in home games off a home loss since 1997 and 6-24 ATS in home games after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games since 1997.
Take the points.
Gina
Miami Heat (9-43) at Houston Rockets (33-20)
The sorry Miami Heat are playing horrible, especially on offense, averaging just 93 points per game. Miami has lost nine straight games, 2-6-1 ATS. Look for the Rockets to beat-up on Miami tonight at the Toyota Center. The Heat are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 road games and 2-4 ATS in its last six against Houston. Go with the hot Rockets. The double digit line is hefty, but Miami has been horrendous. Houston has won their last nine games, going 7-2 ATS.
Houston Rockets
Houston Rockets - 10'
San Antonio Spurs - 9
Michael Cannon
15 Dime
XAVIER
Take Xavier as the home chalk tonight over Duquesne.
The Dukes are a game opponent, there’s no question about that, but I doubt they’ll be able to rack up the points against the stingy man-to-man defense of Xavier.
The Minutemen are second in the conference in team defense and have the quickness to defend against the ultra high tempo attack of Duquesne.
Plus, there’s the revenge factor working here after the Dukes stunning 93-91 home win over Xavier last year.
The Musketeers have a balanced scoring attack with six players averaging in double figures in scoring, led by Josh Duncan and Drew Lavender, who both average over 11 points a game.
Duquesne is still too unrefined on defense to keep Xavier from pulling away here, and with a revenge factor working against them on the road, I wouldn’t be surprised if Xavier wins this one going away.
Lay the points with Xavier as they grab the home win and cover.
5 Dime
VIRGINIA
Take the points with Virginia tonight when they travel to take on Georgia Tech.
We’re getting some value with the Cavaliers tonight, as they battled North Carolina to the end in a 75-74 loss on February 12, then grabbed the 79-74 road win over Boston College five days later.
The Cavaliers resurgence over those two games can be attributed to the return of forward Laurynas Mikalauskas, who had missed 13 games with a shoulder injury. He returned for the game against North Carolina and immediately gave the Cavs a presence in the paint. Mikalauskas had 13 points in 18 minutes in the win over Boston College, so he’s made the most of the time he’s been in there.
Georgia Tech has been playing close games all year, especially in ACC play. They’ve lost six games this season by five points or less, or in overtime. They have shot less than 45 percent from the field in the last three games, and now they’re being asked to cover this number?
Take the points with Virginia as they stay within the number on the road.
WINNERS EDGE
NBA
Houston Rockets - 10 , 2 units
CBB
Notre Dame -4.5 , 2 units
Long time lurker on this site, decided to share some of my picks.
NBA
Take Miami/Houston over tonight.
DOC'S
4 Unit Play. Take Washington State -9 ½ over Arizona State
After a hot start to the PAC-10, the Devils have fallen on hard times and will not bring much to the table on Thursday and will be lucky to win one of these two games in the Pacific Northwest. State has turned it up recently having won three straight games and including two on the road and not one of them was close. ASU has lost six of their last eight games and still has a brutal schedule remaining that will likely bump them out of the tournament. ASU will have no answer for Derrick Low as he will dominate the game from the guard position.
4 Unit Play. Take Denver -3 over Middle Tennessee State
As bad as Denver has been on the road, they have been the complete opposite when playing at Magness Arena. They are 9-1 in the mile high city and the Raiders are just 3-7 on the road. You can pretty much play Denver blind this year and you would have loads of money. Joe Scott and company get it done in a slow pace dominating performance.
4 Unit Play. Take Arizona +1 ½ over Washington
The Cats have the more talented team and the home court edge the Huskies have once had @ Bank of America Arena has vanished. UW has already lost five times this season in the emerald city. U of A beat Washington by 15 points earlier this season and has won 41 of the 62 lifetime meetings. Zona has too much quickness for Washington to stay in this affair.
STRIKE POINT SPORTS
3-Unit Play. Take Dayton -1 over La Salle
The Flyers got a nice win at home last weekend and hopefully that has helped them turn a corner. Winners of nine of the last ten vs. the Explorers, Dayton can continue its push towards the NCAA Tournament with another victory here. The road team has covered the last four meetings, while La Salle is just 4-5 at home this season. We'll see Dayton again get back in the win column in conference play.
2-Unit Play. Take Montana State -2 over Idaho State
The Bobcats have dominated this series, going 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings and winning nine of the last ten vs Idaho State. Montana State have won six of its last eight overall, including a 21-point win over these Tigers several weeks back. Idaho State has dropped three straight, failing to cover all three and they are really struggling. It will be the Bobcats that get the season sweep, covering on the road in this one.
LT Profits
Western Carolina +5.5
The Western Carolina Catamounts may be having a down year, but we simply do not feel that the NC-Greensboro Spartans have done enough to merit road favoritism here.
After all, the Spartans have a losing 6-8 straight up record away from home, with a losing 6-7-1 record against the spread. Also, it is not as if they are entering this game in peak form, as they have lost five of their last six games SU and they are on a three-game road losing streak.
The Catamounts may be just 8-17 overall, but they are a respectable 6-6 SU at home, and more importantly, they are a very nice 4-1 ATS in their last five games. The last time they played at home, they upset Chattanooga, and Western Carolina is a perfect 4-0 ATS the last four time they have been cast in this underdog role.
Finally, the home team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 head-to-head meetings between these schools, and each team’s current form suggests that that trend should continue here.
Western Carolina +5.5
Wunderdog
Pittsburgh at Notre Dame
Pick: Notre Dame -4.5
Both of these teams have 19 wins but there are two huge advantages for the Irish here. First off they are 9-3 in league play while Pittsburgh is just 7-5. This two-win difference against the tougher competition tells us these 19-win teams are not equals. Second, this game is at home for Notre Dame. Pittsburgh is just 5-5 on the road while the Irish are a perfect 14-0 at home, beating opponents by 18 points per game. The Panthers' strength is defense as they allow 62.7 ppg. But, on the road, that jumps to 66.7, and the Irish are on a 29-14 ATS run over teams that allow less than 64 ppg after 15 games.
Priceless Picks
1 Unit on Xavier -10
Xavier is 14-1 at home and 10-1 in conference play this season. Duquesne doesn't stand a chance against the 12th ranked Musketeers. Duquesne has never won 3 consecutive Atlantic 10 road games, and it won't even come close to happening tonight. Xavier is 12-1 ATS in home games versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of <=42% over the last 2 seasons and 8-1 ATS in home games versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. The Musketeers are also 18-5 ATS after 2 straight games where they attempted 50 or less shots since 1997. After a two-game stint on the road, I expect Xavier to really explode offensively tonight back on its home floor. Lay the number.
Ryan NHL
3* Philly
3* Boston
3* Atlanta
BEN BURNS
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
DUQUESNE
Game: Duquesne vs. Xavier
Prediction: Duquesne Reason: I'm taking the points with DUQUESNE. The Musketeers are a solid and well-balanced team. That being said, they've played four games in a row which were decided by four points or less and I feel that tonight's number is too high vs. an improved Dukes lineup which can score points with the best them. Indeed, Duquesne ranks fourth in the nation with 84.1 points per game and has eight players averaging at least seven points. The up-tempo Dukes (16-8, 6-5) have already clinched their first winning season since 1993-94, and can match that team’s win total with one more victory. The Dukes have also been involved in a pair of extremely close games recently. They lost by three points vs. Richmond last time out after winning by two at Dayton in their previous game. Prior to that, they won by 17 at La Salle and beat St' Joseph's by 14, topping 100 points in both those games. The Musketeers, 3-5 ATS when coming off a conference win, managed to scratch out a cover in their last game. They're still just 1-4 ATS their last five though. The Dukes, who are 3-1 ATS their last four, are 14-6 ATS with one push, the last 21 times that they were listed as road underdogs in the +9.5 to +12 range. Listed as +13 point underdogs, the Dukes upset the Musketeers 93-91 the last time that these teams faced each other. They know that a win here would greatly improve their otherwise remote chances of an NCAA at-large bid and I look for them to give the Musketeers a much tougher game than expected once again.
NBA
UNDER Heat/Rockets
Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on the Rockets and Heat to finish UNDER the total. The Rockets were originally expected to be a higher-scoring team this year, placing a greater emphasis on offense than in previous seasons. That hasn't really turned out to be the case though. Once again, they are one of the best defensive teams in the league. The 90.9 points per game they allow on this floor ranks as the fourth best mark in the league, second to only San Antonio in the West. The offense has remained mediocre though, managing only 95.8 points per game on this floor. That's the sixth worst mark in the entire league and third worst in the Western Conference. In fact, only the Clippers and T-Wolves score fewer points on their home floor in the West. Not surprisingly, the Rockets have seen the UNDER go a profitable 16-9 at home for the year. They really tighten things up defensively in games they are "supposed to win" as that includes a healthy 4-1 mark when they've been listed as home favorites in the -9.5 to -12 range. The Rockets have also been at their best defensively of late. In fact, they've allowed an average of just 84.3 points in their last seven games, while seeing six of those seven games fall below the number. None of those seven opponents reached 90 points. Tonight, they'll be facing a Miami team which is scoring a league-worst 92.7 points per game. Note that the Heat have seen the UNDER go 3-1 their last four games and 9-5-1 their last 15. The Rockets, who have seen the UNDER go 10-7 on the season when facing a team which previously defeated them, are proud of their defensive prowess. As McGrady recently was quoted as saying: "What we’re developing on this team is a team like the Pistons. Great defensive team, going out there and playing together and not relying on one or two people to score the rock." Playing with "revenge" from an earlier loss at Miami, I expect them to play very well at that end of the floor again tonight. Lastly, it's worth noting that tonight's over/under line is significantly higher than it was for the earlier meeting as it was just 179.5 or 180 for that game. I feel that tonight's bigger number provides us with excellent value and I look for the final combined score to beneath it. *TNT Total of the Month
NHL
LIGHTNING
Game: Tampa Bay Lightning vs. New York Islanders
Prediction: Tampa Bay Lightning Reason: I'm playing on TAMPA BAY. The Islanders have been on an impressive run of late. Last night, they battled back from an early 2-0 deficit to tie the Capitals and force overtime. They would eventually win in a shootout, marking their fifth straight victory. Already missing defenseman Brendan Witt, Chris Campoli and Bruno Gervais, the Islanders are also now without Andy Sutton as he was injured late in Monday's win over San Jose. While they were able to earn another valuable two points yesterday, I expect the lack of defensive depth to catch up with the Isles in today's "back to back situation" and what will be their third "tough" game in the past four days. While the Isles can now afford to relax just slightly, the Lightning cannot, as they are last in the Eastern Conference with only 22 games remaining. Like their hosts, the Lightning went to overtime last night. However, the back-to-back situation shouldn't be quite as gruelling as, prior to last night, they had the previous three nights off. (TB previously played on 16th. NYI previously played on 18th.) Despite their poor overall record, the Lightning have still managed to win seven of their past nine road games. Playing with "double-revenge" from a pair of earlier losses in this series, I'm expecting a highly motivated effort and for them to snap the Isles winning streak tonight.
Wunderdog
Game: San Jose at Philadelphia
Pick: Philadelphia -120
Philadelphia has lost eight straight games while San Jose has dropped five straight. This is the best chance for Philadelphia to break out of their slump against the Sharks who are 1-6 on the road since the begininning of 2008. Philly can score at home (3.3 per game) and San Jose is averaging just 2.0 goals per game over their last five. Favorites off three straight losses, in the second half of the season, hit at a 71% clip. San Jose is 21-32 off 2+ straight losses the past three seasons and we like Philly to hand them another loss tonight.
PHILLY Connection
3* TampaBay-115
KELSO
5* Notre Dame
Matty O'Shea
Oregon State/UCLA UNDER
Rockdeman Dog Of The Day
Oregon