DOC'S
4 Unit Play.Take Wake Forest -2 ½ over Maryland
The Terrapins cannot handle prosperity and have seen their hopes of a tournament big all but vanish this season. They have lost three of their last four games including a home loss to Virginia Tech. The Demon Deacons have been the complete opposite winning three of their last four games with their only loss coming against North Carolina. Both teams have six conference losses and cannot afford another win in order to keep the hopes of a tournament big alive. The winner of this one will likely be in and it is hard to argue with Wake’s 14-1 record when the game is being played at Lawrence Joel Coliseum.
4 Unit Play.Take Arkansas Little Rock -9 ½ over Denver
Revenge is best served on the court and that is exactly what will face the Pioneers on Thursday. Denver has lost their home magic and never had any success on the road evident by the fact that they have not recorded a true road victory this season (0-13). Denver has lost four straight games including two bad home beats against mediocre teams from the Sun Belt. Little Rock sits atop the Sun Belt Standing and should have no problem blowing out Denver early and cruising to a victory similar to what A & M did to Tech last night. The Trojans have great balance and will put the clamps on Denver and not allow them to reach 50 points. This one will be over by halftime.
4 Unit Play.Take Nevada -3 ½ over New Mexico State
The Wolf Pack need this victory if they want any chance of winning the WAC Regular Season title and we expect them to come out strong on night and complete the season sweep of the Wolf Pack. They are coming off a brutal road trip and are ready for some home cooking tonight @ Lawlor Events Center. The Aggies have won five straight game but only Boise State at home would be considered a quality victory. The other four victories have come against Bottom Feeder teams that Nevada has already beaten earlier in the season. This is a one bid conference this season and Nevada needs this victory in order to improve upon their standing in the WAC for the upcoming conference tournament.
Wolkosky Milan
10* DALLAS +5
10* MIAMI +14
10* DAL/SAS OVER 182
10* MIL/NJN OVER 198½
FERRINGO
2.5-Unit Play. Wright State (+12) over Butler
The Raiders are 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings and are matched up against a team that has struggled to cover double-digit spreads all season long. Butler is just 4-12-1 ATS in conference games and Wright State is 16-5 ATS as a dog. This one is going to be within three points of this number – I don’t think Wright wins this game – but I think we’re going to be on the right side of line.
5-Unit Play. Arizona (-4.5) over USC
Note: This is our Game of the Month.
We were on the wrong side of the injury bug earlier in the week but I am hoping we are on the right side tonight. USC point guard Daniel Hackett has a fracture in his lower back. And although he is going to try to play through it he is going to be severely limited if he is able to play at all. Without their point guard and, arguably, the club’s most valuable player it’s going to be tough for the USC to be going on the road to a place they historically don’t perform well in. They are 1-21 SU in their last 22 trips to U of A. Without Hackett I think that Arizona’s Jarred Bayless is going to run wild. Jordan Hill and Taj Gibson should cancel one another out on the inside, so the entire key – the ENTIRE key – is for Chase Buddinger to show up. Over their last 10 games, Arizona is 5-1 ATS when he scores 20 or more and 1-3 ATS when he doesn’t. He hit USC for 29 in the first meeting and hopefully Buds will be fired up to go against O.J. Mayo.
2.5-Unit Play. Boise State (-3.5) over San Jose State
I’ll take the better team the books can take the points. The Broncos may be a bit dazed after their loss to Siena over the weekend, but they are still a veteran team and they can bounce back much more quickly than a younger team would. SJSU is just playing out the string and I don't think they have the talent to run with the Broncs tonight.
2-Unit Play. Notre Dame (+8) over Louisville
The question with Louisville is always whether or not they can score enough to lay double-digit numbers on people. I think it's going to be tough tonight. Notre Dame is certainly in the same stratosphere as the Cardinals and I think they can hang around in this game. Also, the Irish shoot so well from the outside that even if they are getting run down by UL they can easily bang a couple late threes to sneak into this number. Look for a two- or three-possession game tonight and a solid cover by one of the Big East's best.
2-Unit Play. Stanford (-11) over Washington
Washington is 5-13 ATS as a road dog and I think they have been playing above themselves a bit during their three-game home stand. If Stanford can cut off Jon Brockman on the interior I don’t know if the Huskies can score consistently enough from the outside to keep this one close. Stanford hammered the Huskies in Washington by 14 in the first meeting and I think they can match that performance tonight in front of the home faithful.
2-Unit Play. St. Joseph’s (-12) over St. Louis
The Billikens have stunk on the road this year and I don’t think they can score enough to stay with the Hawks at home. Other than a head-scratching loss to LaSalle at home the Hawks have won their last three home games by 25, 22, and 15. St. Louis’ last three road losses have been by 17, 11, and 27. The Hawks are hitting their stride and I think they smother STL this evening.
1-Unit Play. ‘Under’ 148 Maryland at Wake Forest
I’m going contrarian with this pick. I don’t play many totals, but this one jumped out at me because both teams have been scoring so much lately, but I think it’s a bit uncharacteristic.
STRIKE POINT SPORTS
3-Unit Play. Take Notre Dame +8 over Louisville
A big time battle in the Big East, perhaps for the league's top spot, however I cannot see the Cardinals making this a one-side affair. Actually, I think the Irish have a good chance to win this game outright, based on the fact that they have been playing great basketball. Notre Dame is one of the best three point shooting teams in the country, so Louisville will have trouble guarding the perimeter in that sense. Luke Harangody is also a beast down low, and with the Irish leading the conference in offensive rebounds, that allows for more opportunities to attack on offense. Look for a competitive game all the way through, and for Notre Dame to cover this number.
2-Unit Play. Take North Texas +1 over Louisiana Lafayette
The Mean Green have been rolling, winning their last four games and are 18-9 on the year. The Cajuns are just 13-14, while North Texas has won the last four meetings. The Mean Green are 10-4 ATS in its last 14 road games. They held serve at home, and they will make it a season sweep over ULL in this Sun Belt tilt
Kelso
Chairmans S Jose St +4.5 10 units
Best Bets= N Dame +8 5 units
Arizona -5 4 units
Mich St +5.5 3 units
InfoPlays
3* on Austin Peay +4
Austin Peay should not be the underdog in this meeting with Eastern Kentucky tonight. Austin Peay is 8-2 in their last 10 meetings at Eastern Kentucky while going 6-1 against the spread as well. Austin Peay has won 20 of their last 25 meetings with Eastern Kentucky overall. It is safe to say that Austin Peay has their number. Austin Peay has won 6 of their last 7 games overall. Austin Peay is 14-5 ATS versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting less than 18 free throws/game after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons. Austin Peay is 10-2 ATS versus poor offensive teams - scoring less than 64 points/game after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons.
Bet Austin Peay on the road.
Priceless Picks
1 Unit on Louisville -8
The Cards are 8-1 all-time in home games against Notre Dame and I look for them to put a big beatdown on the Irish tonight. Notre Dame has struggled on the road this season at just 5-5 SU and 4-6 ATS. The Cards have cruised at home with a 13-2 mark and they have really caught fire of late, winning 7 in a row SU and ATS. Louisville if 12-3 in Big East play and 11-4 ATS in those games. Louisville is 18-6 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons, 12-4 ATS versus good shooting teams - making >=45% of their shots this season, and 11-3 ATS versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons. There's no stopping Louisville's momentum tonight. The Cards will take care of business and stay in the hunt for a Big East title.
Rich Green
Freesportsletter: Spurs -4.5
Silver Key: Eastern Kentucky -3
Gold Key: San Jose State +6 (YTD 36-55) 😮
Factsman
The Citadel +1.5
Rockdeman Dog Of The Day
Ga Southern
Peter Loshak
With the trade deadline acquisitions of Marian Hossa and Pascal Dupuis, the Penguins have improved significantly. Play Pittsburgh on the money line tonight on the road at Boston.
On Thursday in the NHL, I’m going to take a shot with Pittsburgh, a team playing well that just improved significantly with a trade earlier in the week. The Penguins are small road underdogs of +105 to Boston, a team that is on a four-game winning streak achieved against sub-par competition.
Pittsburgh has been anchored by two players recently, second-year phenom Evgeni Malkin and top-notch goaltender Ty Conklin. Those two players have often been almost all the team has needed to come away with wins of late, to the moderate unease of management. But the Penguins have now added two quality players to their roster, acquired in a trade with Atlanta, star right winger Marian Hossa and gritty forward Pascal Dupuis. The Pens were able to acquire those two without giving up a whole lot in return, mostly because they will both be unrestricted free agents next year. But for now, Pittsburgh looks to have gotten significantly better, and they are likely to be a tough opponent against anyone from here on out this season.
Boston is a quality team, to be sure, and they do have good goaltending. Tim Thomas is off a shutout and Boston has won four straight. But the Bruins have been playing competition mired in slumps and bad circumstances recently, and playing Pittsburgh on Thursday is sure to be a different challenge.
This will likely be a very close and competitive game, but I like Pittsburgh’s momentum and mindset to pull out a win. Getting them at underdog odds looks to me to have some value, so I’ll be on Pittsburgh +105 Thursday evening.
LT Profits
Pittsburgh Penguins @ Boston Bruins u5.5
The Pittsburgh Penguins may have trouble getting some offensive continuity the next few games considering all the new players they traded for at the deadline, and the Boston Bruins would be tough to score on in Beantown in any event.
Boston is allowing just 2.20 goals per game at home for the season, with the Under going a lucrative 19-10 in this rink. It helps to have an All-Star goaltender like Tim Thomas in net, as he has a good 2.41 GAA with a .924 save percentage. Most importantly, he recovered from one of his worst games of the season, when he was benched during a 5-4 win at Florida, by shutting out the high-octane Ottawa Senators on Tuesday.
Now the Penguins will eventually be explosive due to the acquisition of Marian Hossa from the Atlanta Thrashers, as Hossa is just one year removed from a 100-point season and he will make a formidable duo with Sidney Crosby soon. However, this is Hossa’s first game with the Pens and Crosby is not ready for game action just yet. Thus, Pittsburgh may again rely on the red-hot goaltending of Ty Conkin, who has a sensational 2.19 GAA in 27 games and who incredibly stopped 50 shots vs. the Islanders Tuesday, basically stealing the 4-2 win himself.
We look for both goaltenders to stay hot here in a relatively low scoring contest.
Penguins, Bruins Under 5.5
Jacksonville State +4.0
This game between the Jacksonville State Gamecocks and the Eastern Illinois Panthers may feature the two worst teams in Division IA, but that does not mean we cannot profit from this stinker of a contest.
First of all, the 5-22 Panthers are getting outscored by an average of -6.8 points per game overall, which is actually worse than the 6-21 Gamecocks’ average of -5.2 points. That fact alone means that Eastern Illinois is a terrible favorite vs. any opponent, and furthermore, they are just 3-8 straight up and a dismal 2-7-1 against the spread at home. This is the first time that the Panthers have been favored all season, but they have been in three Pick’em games and they lost all three times vs. Rice, Tennessee-Martin and Eastern Kentucky, with the smallest losing margin in those games being six points.
Now, Jacksonville State is 0-11 SU on the road, but they have managed to go 4-4 ATS in their lined road contests. In fact, they are 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall, and their last road contest was their best of the season, as they lost just 87-85 in overtime at Tennessee Tech as 13-point underdogs.
We feel that the Gamecocks get over the road hump tonight with the outright upset.
Jacksonville State +4
Paul Stone
USC +5.0
Road teams have fared well in the Pac 10 this season and the USC Trojans fit nicely into that profile tonight at Arizona.
The Trojans, who have covered eight of their past 11 games, are 16-7 ATS in their last 23 games as an underdog.
Meanwhile, Arizona has only brought home the money once in its past six games against a team with a winning record.
On the injury front, USC guard Daniel Hackett (back) practiced Wednesday and could see action against the Wildcats.
Arizona will continue to be without the services of guard Nic Wise who is out due to injury.
The underdog has covered the past five games in this series and I look for the Trojans to make it an even half-dozen tonight.
C&P EXPERTS
SPURS/MAVS OVER 181
Bob Balfe
Wisconsin -5.5
Gina
Miami Heat (10-45) at Los Angeles Lakers (40-17)
The hot LA Lakers have won nine straight, averaging 113 points per game will square off with the sorry Miami Heat at the Staples Center tonight. Miami is averaging just 93.5 points per game and has dropped 26 of their last 28 games. They have been a horror away from home, 13 straight road defeats and just four wins in 27 road contests this season. Go with the Lakers to pound Miami. Los Angeles has won 10 of the last 13 games versus Miami at home, 7-3 ATS in their last 10 against Miami, and 4-1 ATS at home.
Los Angeles Lakers
New Jersey Nets - 3½
Los Angeles Lakers - 13½
WUNDERDOG
Game: Loyola Chicago at Wisconsin Milwaukee
Pick: Loyola Chicago +3
Wisconsin Milwaukee has dropped six of their last seven games, dropping them below .500 on the season. Loyola has major problems on offense, but they have a very good defense which keeps them in games. They are allowing 63.9 per game on the season and 59.6 over their last five games. Wisconsin Milwaukee allows 70 points per game on the season and 72.6 over their last five games. They are 0-6 ATS this season against good defensive teams (those allowing less than 64 ppg). Loyola loves playing low-pressure teams like WMW as they are 12-1 ATS over teams that average fewer than seven steals per game after 15+ games. We like the underdog here.