Rocketman Sports
NBA
3* Milwaukee +3 1/2
3* Miami +14
CBB
3* College of Charleston -1 1/2
3* Eastern Kentucky -3 1/2
Black Magic Sports
NCAA Basketball
5 Unit Black Magic CBB Blowout of the Week on Morehead State -1.5
Morehead State will blow Tennessee State out of the water tonight in a double-digit massacre. Morehead State is 10-1 at home this season winning by an average of 12 points per game. Tennessee State is just 5-10 on the road while giving up an average of 78 points per game. Morehead State is 8-2 straight up in their last 10 home meetings with Tennessee State. Following 4 straight road games, Morehead State will be relieved to return home tonight where they have been dominating opponents all season. Tennessee State is 1-11 ATS after covering 2 of their last 3 against the spread over the last 2 seasons. Tennessee State is 0-8 ATS off 2 straight wins against conference rivals over the last 3 seasons. Cash in with Morehead State as the favorite.
3 Unit Sharp Play on Georgia Southern +2.5
Georgia Southern should clearly be the favorite here as there is no way in hell they lose to Charleston tonight. Southern is 20-9 on the season while Charleston is sitting at just 12-16. Not even home court can save Charleston tonight. Southern is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games at Charleston. Southern is 10-5 ATS in their last 15 meetings with Charleston overall. Charleston is 3-8 in their last 11 games overall. Southern has won 6 of their last 7 games overall. GA Southern is 8-1 ATS after a non-conference game this season. Charleston is 1-9 ATS after covering 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread over the last 2 seasons. Charleston is 0-9 ATS after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 2 seasons. Cash in with Georgia Southern as the underdog.
NBA
3 Unit Sharp Play on New Jersey Nets -3.5
The Nets will run away with this home game against the Milwaukee Bucks tonight. Milwaukee is one of the worst road teams in the pros with a 6-24 road record. They are losing 80% of their road contests. The Bucks are also getting outscored by 12 points per game in all road games this season. Milwaukee is 8-19 ATS against Atlantic division opponents over the last 2 seasons. Milwaukee is 7-19 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The Nets are 4-1 SU and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home meetings with the Bucks. Cash in with New Jersey as the favorite.
Drew Gordon
1. 400,000* Wright State
2. 100,000* Mavericks
3. 50,000* Boise State
1. Wright State- For those of us who've followed this series, the number on this game is ridiculous. Wright State is 10-1 ATS over their last 11 meetings with Butler, including three straight outright victories! Needless to say, expecting a Bulldogs blowout here flies in the face of everything we know about this series.
This series has two defining traits: First, we can expect this to be a relatively low scoring affair, as these two teams have gotten to know each other well and the offenses have struggled to adapt. Second, we can expect Butler to come into this game overvalued, which has been the case time and again. True, they lost a tough game to Drake at home in their last one, which should have them motivated tonight. But on the flip side, the Raiders have been playing great ball, winning 11 straight, before losing a close defensive battle at Illinois State in their last one.
Also, its hard to ignore the Raiders numbers over their last 5 games. While their offense has been below average, their defense has been outstanding, allowing just 52 ppg on 39% shooting over that span! Butler's defense is solid at home, but its not better than what the Raiders saw at Illinois State on Sunday. All signs once again point to a low-scoring defensive battle in this one.
For a more accurate understanding, let's examine their most recent meeting, a 43-42 Wright State outright win at home as an 8'-point underdog. The Raiders offense, only got off 38 shots in the game compared to Butler's 50, but managed to shoot 47%, while holding the Bulldogs to just 32%. Butler's perimeter based attack struggled against a Wright State team that had the experience and the personnel to defend it.
Bottom line, expect a close, hard-fought, defensive battle in this contest, with the Raiders easily keeping this game within the number. Butler will shoot better at home, most likely enabling them to win this game, but they'll still have trouble against a Wright State team that seemingly always gets up for this match up. Raiders have been solid bet on the road (8-3-1 ATS), and that trend continues tonight at Butler!
Take Wright State plus the points over Butler as your top-rated play of the day. Last 7 plays of the day record, 0-7.
2. Mavericks- Love this match up for the Mavs, as Dallas seems to be adapting well to the addition of Jason Kidd to their lineup, winning 3 straight, albeit against easy competition. Spurs have been playing well, winning 6 straight, and while I believe they'll win this game at home, I disagree with the margin, seeing no more than about a basket difference between these two Western Conference powers.
San Antonio has relied on their defense to lockdown foes over their last 5 games, allowing just 86 ppg on 41% shooting... Excellent numbers by any measure. But if any offense is methodical enough to play the Spurs halfcourt game, its the Mavs, especially with one of the smartest point guard in the league leading their offense. Its a true measuring stick, one I believe Kidd and Mavs are using to gauge themselves against tonight.
While the Spurs have been solid at home, the Mavs have owned the series of late, covering 4 of the last 5, including 3 outright victories. The last time these two teams played, the Spurs won without Tim Duncan, as Devin Harris got completely outclassed by Parker, scoring just 4 points in 26 minutes. Look for a much better effort from the point guard position tonight, as Kidd helps this Mavs offense in a variety of ways.
Finally, two more trends to consider, as the road team is 10-4 ATS over the last 14 meetings in this series. Not only that, but the underdog is an impressive 14-3 ATS over their last 17 meetings. In the end, look for this game to be razor close, as these two teams always go all out against each other. Dallas will be looking to prove they made the right move with Kidd, and I expect them to play accordingly.
Take the Mavericks plus the points over Spurs in this NBA match up.
3. Boise State- With just a 1/2 game lead in the WAC and coming off an ugly outright home loss to Siena, looking for the Broncos to bounce back strong in this conference road game tonight at San Jose State. 2nd place New Mexico State is at Nevada tonight, a tough place to win, and the Broncos could almost cement their lead in the WAC tonight with a win here.
Spartans have been far from impressive of late, losing 4 of their last 6 SU (3-3 ATS) and looking more and more like one of the bottom-feeders in the WAC. While their defense had been respectable, they've slipped of late, allowing 74 ppg on 43% shooting over their last 5 games. As the losses have mounted their focus has clearly faded, and it'll show tonight.
San Jose State's offense what dooms them in this contest, as one thing we know for sure is Boise State can score points. Broncos are averaging 84 ppg on a ridiculous 53% shooting (43% from 3-point) away this season. They may not get that many tonight, but they sure as hell will outscore a sputtering Spartans offense, dropping in just 67 ppg on 43% shooting over their last 5 games.
Finally, match ups are also an problem, as San Jose State has some nice balance, but no one to score points when they need them, like Reggie Larry will for the Broncos. With the inside/out attack of Larry, Nelson, Tiedeman, and the return of senior G Bauscher to lineup after missing the Siena game with an ankle injury, the Broncos have more than enough firepower to blow the Spartans out of their own gym in this one. Boise State gets back on track with a solid road win and cover tonight!
Take Boise State comfortably over San Jose State in this WAC match up.
Dave Malinsky 4* play
GAME: Notre Dame @ Louisville
PICK: over
Offered at: 143
REASON FOR PICK: 4* NOTRE DAME/LOUISVILLE Over
In today’s edition of RIM SHOTS we wrote about one of those dilemmas that come up in the handicapping processes – as great as that 36-13 ATS run as an underdog in road/neutral games has been by Mike Brey, and as many times that we have profited along the way, it does not really fit the Fighting Irish as a side play in this setting. But some of that logic that created the run can work for the Total.
To save you a quick click to the column (you will go there later, of course), Notre Dame has only gone 1-3 ATS in the road dog role this season, including a pair of ugly blowout losses at Georgetown and Marquette. And there was a common theme running throughout the defeats – they allowed an average of 85.0 points per game in those four outings. It tells us two things: 1. That the Fighting Irish lack the athleticism to play great defense; and 2. Like he has in the past Brey is coaching to win on the road, and is accepting what he has to do to make that happen. That means playing to the strength of his team, which comes on the offensive end.
In Luke Harangody and Kyle McAlarney there is an inside/out combo that rivals any in the nation, with Harangody the likely Big East Player of the Year, and McAlarney hitting an outstanding 49.1 percent from 3-point range in conference play (at a hefty volume of 108 attempts in 14 games). As a team the Irish are shooting 40.1 percent from beyond the arc through their Big East battles. And as Brey well knows, the best way to get open looks from long range is to push the pace, and try to find openings before the defense can settle. As such the four road dog outings went Over the Total by a combined 50 points, or 12.5 per game. That really matters in terms of understanding the pace at which the games were played because the shooting was not necessarily out of line – just 43.8 overall for Notre Dame and the opposition. And the current overall Fighting Irish run is 12 Over’s in the last 13 games, with the only failure coming by just 2.5 points at Rutgers.
Louisville, of course, loves to run. The Cardinals are at their best when they can use their athleticism to attack, but often get bogged down by teams that want to make the game a waltz. Tonight they will get plenty of opportunities to get up and down the floor, and even when forced into half-court sets they can get to the basket against this defense. When you have quicker players that can beat their opponents off the dribble it forces a lot of help on defense, and that opens up the offensive glass, a part of the game that Louisville excels. It all adds up to a solid Over opportunity, and the early move from 145 to 143 in the marketplace this morning makes it even easier to step in.
EZ Winners
1 STAR: (528) BUTLER (-12) over Wright State
(Risking $110 to win $100)
1 STAR: (550) ARIZONA STATE (+6.5) over UCLA
(Risking $110 to win $100)
1 STAR: (530) ARIZONA (-4.5) over USC
(Risking $110 to win $100)
1 STAR: (531) MICHIGAN STATE (+5) over Wisconsin
(Risking $110 to win $100)
1 STAR: (553) IDAHO (+11) over Hawaii
(Risking $110 to win $100)
ProphetablePicks
Arizona State
Ryan NHL
5* Flyers
Gamblers World TIP OF THE DAY
Game: 7:00PM, Murray State Racers vs. Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles
Prediction: Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles
Current Line: -3 Over/Under: 147.5 Reason: The fans at Eblen Center will be treated to a game between the Murray State Racers and the Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles when they take their seats on Thursday. Oddsmakers currently have the Golden Eagles listed as 3-point favorites versus the Racers, while the game's total is sitting at 147½. Current streak: Tennessee Tech has lost 3 straight games. Team records: Murray State: 16-11 SU, 9-15-1 ATS Tennessee Tech: 12-18 SU, 12-13 ATS Murray State most recently: When playing on Thursday are 6-4 After playing Indiana State are 2-0 After a loss are 6-4 Tennessee Tech most recently: When playing on Thursday are 3-7 After playing East Tennessee State are 2-0 After a loss are 4-6 A few trends to consider: The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Murray State's last 5 games Murray State is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games Murray State is 16-7 SU in its last 23 games when playing Tennessee Tech The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Murray State's last 6 games on the road The total has gone OVER in 7 of Tennessee Tech's last 8 games The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee Tech's last 5 games at home Tennessee Tech is 17-6 SU in its last 23 games at home Tennessee Tech is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Murray State
ROOT
Chairman - Ariz St
Millionaire - Louisville
No Limit - San Jose St
ANTON WINS
Boise St -3.5
Chicago Sports Connection
Wake Forest -2.5
Wise Owl
Notre Dame
Straley
Under Mil / Nj
Under Hurricanes
Black Magic Sports
1 Unit on UCLA -6
UCLA already beat up on Arizona State by 33 points back on January 31st with a final of 84-51. This is an indication that ASU can’t hang with the dynamic UCLA offense that gets after it defensively as well. UCLA has one of the best big men in the country in Kevin Love. They also have outstanding guard play in Collison, Ship and Westbrook. UCLA has won 5 straight meetings with ASU over the last 3 seasons. UCLA is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games overall. UCLA is 7-1 ATS in all road games this season. They actually have played their best basketball away from home this year. Following their 33-point victory over the Sun Devils earlier this year, UCLA will put another beat down on this overmatched Arizona State squad tonight. Cash in with UCLA as the favorite.
Black Widow Sports
1* on North Texas +1
At 18-9 on the season, North Texas is a great bet today as the underdog against a 13-14 LA Lafayette squad. North Texas has won 5 of their last 6 meetings against LA Lafayette overall. North Texas is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 road games so they obviously don’t mind playing away from home. North Texas is 9-2 ATS as a road underdog or pick over the last 2 seasons. North Texas is 10-2 ATS as a road underdog of 3 points or less or pick since 1997. North Texas is 14-5 ATS after scoring 80 points or more over the last 2 seasons. The Mean Green are hitting on all cylinders right now offensively. Take North Texas and the points.
Marco D'Angelo
PICK: Butler -12
Matty O'Shea
USC +5
JWhip
Nevada -3
Larry Ness
San Antonio Spurs -5
JB
Miami Heat +13.5
Akmen NHL
3* Chicago/Dal over 5.5
Winning Points Online NCAAB.
**PREFERRED
Valparaiso* over Detroit by 20
You're down four guards (since the season began). You've already played your final home game. The coach has been out for while, ill. How behind the 8-ball are you?
Detroit senior guard Jon Goode is the Horizon League's leading scorer (19.3 ppg) but he will miss the remainder of the season after injuring his knee injury against Wright State last week. Bowling Green destroyed these guys without him on Saturday, and Valpo is better.
Goode is the fourth guard that Detroit (7-20, 3-13 Horizon) has lost this season following Brandon Bell, former leading scorer Brandon Cotton (left the team) and, two games ago just before Goode, starting point guard Woody Payne (season-ending foot surgery). Aha! VALPARAISO, 66-46.
BILL HILTON
2* Arkansas Little Rock -9.5
2* Southern Cal +4.5
2* San Jose St +3.5
Mr. A's
New Jersey Nets -3½
Los Angeles Lakers - 14
Johnny Guild
Dallas Mavericks (38-19) at San Antonio Spurs (38-17)
The total has gone under in six of the Spurs last seven home games and four of the last five clashes against Dallas. Look for the Spurs to play their usual tough defense and contain the Mavericks, hindering Dirk Nowitzki and Jason Kidd. Dallas has played stronger offensively in their last 3 battles, averaging 99.5 points per game, but will face a strong San Antonio team that is allowing an average of 90.8 points per game. Take the ‘under’ tonight at the AT&T Center.
Under - 181.5
Louisville Cardinals - 8
UCLA Bruins - 6