Karl Garrett
20 DIMERS - ARIZONA WILDCATS, & STANFORD CARDINAL
20 DIMER - ARIZONA WILDCATS
Talk about a "must win"...Arizona has lost 6 of 8, and are now 17-12 for the season. The Wildcats MUST blow out this bad, bad Beavers team, and that is just what the are going to do.
Oregon State has lost 18 in a row straight up, they have failed their last 5 games against the spread, and they have also failed 11 straight at home!
Throw in 4 straight Arizona series wins, and wins in 8 of the last 10 in this rivalry, and we are talking about a flat-out rout!
The Wildcats need to get a big blowout road win, and that is just what they get against the door-mat of the conference.Lay it
20 DIMER - STANFORD CARDINAL
Not sure why Stanford is getting this many points?
Trent Johnson's team has coved 7 of 11 games away from Palo Alto this year, and they are in "double revenge" against this Bruins team.
UCLA won a 76-67 game at Stanford in early January, but it is the Cardinal that is on a 6-2 spread run in this series the last 8 meetings.
The Bruins have been asked to cover some big numbers of late, and they have not been up to the challenge, as they have dropped 2 of their last 3 against the spread, and have split their last 6, ALL as the chalk.
Look for this one to be closer than expected, and the Cardinal to stay inside of this number.
Michael Cannon
15 Dime
DePAUL
Take the points with DePaul tonight when they travel to take on Cincinnati.
The Blue Demons definitely have something to play for tonight, as they're currently tied with Providence for the 12th and final spot in the Big East tournament.
DePaul has fared well on the road in conference play this year, however. They've covered six of seven road games and they should give an all-out effort tonight based on their conference ranking.
Cincinnati has done a good jog this year under first-year head coach Mick Cronin, but they've dropped three straight, including a disappointing home loss to Providence on Sunday.
The Bearcats play at a deliberate pace, which actually favors the Blue Demons as it masks their problems with transition defense. The Bearcats also have been relying too much on Deonta Vaughn and John Williamson for their scoring and nobody else has stepped it up to take some of the pressure off them.
DePaul has enough firepower with Draelon Burns and Dar Tucker to keep this game close or possibly even pull off the outright win.
Take the points with DePaul as they stay within the number.
5 Dime
OREGON
Lay the points with Oregon tonight when they host Arizona State.
Revenge spot for the Ducks after dropping an eight-point decision at Tempe back in January.
Oregon was putrid from beyond the arc in that loss, shooting just 2 of 17.
But that should change tonight on their home court, and the fact that senior forward Marty Leunen is heating up from 3-point land.
Leunen is coming off a career-high 32 points in Sunday?s 80-68 win over Oregon State. He is shooting an incredible 52.9 percent from beyond the arc this year, including a mind-numbing 74.2 percent (23-of-31) over the last six games.
The loser of this game can probably forget an at-large invitation to the NCAA?s, so I prefer to side with the more-experienced host here.
Take Oregon minus the points as they grab the win and cover.
MICHIGAN STATE
Take Michigan State for the road win tonight over Illinois.
The Spartans may have had their problems recently, but its come against ranked teams, not sub-.500 teams like Illinois.
Hey, if Michigan State can't get the win tonight, there?s not much hope for them once tournament time rolls around.
Illinois is heading towards its worst season in over 30 years. They don't shoot particularly well and don?t have much chemistry at either end of the court. The Spartans are a superior rebounding team so don?t expect the Illini to get many second-chance points.
Michigan State rolled past Indiana on Sunday and it wouldn?t surprise me to see them pick up tonight right where they left off.
Take Michigan State for the road win over Illinois.
DOC'S
4 Unit Play.Take Clemson -1 ½ over Georgia Tech
The Tigers picked up a big emotional victory on Sunday and will carry that into Thursday with another victory in Atlanta. The Yellow Jackets are just 5-7 when playing at the Coliseum this year and suffered a setback to Virginia on Monday. The Tigers have too many weapons for this game to be close and they give us a much need big play cash.
4 Unit Play.Take Boise State -5 over Utah State
The Broncos look to close out the WAC regular season with a championship on Thursday night and the No. 1 seed for the upcoming tournament. The Aggies are coming off a big victory for senior day but now must travel on the road and that is a place they have not had much success this season. They are 3-8 when playing true road games outside of Logan. The Broncos will shut down Jaycee Carroll and the rest of the squad will not be able to overcome the hostile environment in Utah.
4 Unit Play.Take Missouri State -10 over Evansville
The Valley takes center stage on Thursday and we will come strong with the Bears on opening night. The Bears finished the season strong winning three straight games including a victory over conference champion Drake during this span. In a very balanced league, the Purple Aces have been far and away the worst team in the league and they will have a short stay in St. Louis going one and out. Both teams have just two road victories this season, but the Bears scored one in their last game winning at Indiana State by double-digits and that is what we will see from them on Thursday.
Ferringo
4-Unit Play.TakeBoise State (-4.5) over Utah State
Senior Night play. I watched Utah State over the weekend and was only moderately impressed with the way they handled a more athletic Fresno State team. The thing is, Fresno sucks. But they were still able to get just about any shot they wanted because they were so much quicker than USU. The Aggies are coming off a three-game stretch where they’ve been blowing out bottom-feeders. Now they’re taking on arguably the best team in the conference in an emotional situation. I don’t think the Aggies have the guns, and if Boise State can get out and run early they could do to USU what they did to Nevada – blow them out.
2-Unit Play.Take George Washington (+9) over Charlotte
George Washington is on an upswing and has played extremely well over the past two weeks. I think they may be catching a few too many points here and this is my Random Play for today. George Washington is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings and the road team is 7-0-1 ATS in this series. I think Charlotte takes home the "W" but it will be a less-inspired effort than what the oddsmakers are looking for.
2.5-Unit Play.Take Indiana State (-1) over Wichita State
Indiana State is the definition of “shaky”. But Wichita is just “awful”. These two clubs split on one another’s home court but I just think the Sycamores are capable of more. The Shockers are just 13-28-2 ATS in conference games while the favorite is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Indiana State has had trouble playing in others’ gyms, but they have yet to suit up for a neutral site game. I think they have a stronger following and mercifully end WSU’s year.
1.5-Unit Play.Take First Half: Missouri State (-6) over Evansville
Missouri State is healthy and happy and ready to be a sleeper in the MVC. I think they get is started with a serious blowout (15+) of Evansville. But just in case the Purple Aces make a late flurry we're going to play a fast start by the Bears.
2-Unit Play.Take Michigan State (-2) over Illinois
Has Michigan State gotten it together? Probably not, but Illinois is not very good and we're running out of chances to fade away. The Spartans are a much, much more talented team and they won't be looking past anyone when they head to Champagne. Illinois got smoked by all three of the other top-tier Big 10 schools (Wisconsin, Purdue, Indiana) and we've seen many times that is a great indicator how the bottom tier is going to fare against any of the Big 4. The favorite is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings and Illinois is just 2-6 ATS in conference play.
David Chan
Xavier -1.5
David Malinsky 4*
Indiana Pacers @ San Antonio Spurs Mar 6, 2008 8:00PM
REASON FOR PICK: 4* INDIANA/SAN ANTONIO Under
We are not sure that there is a better basketball coach at any level than Gregg Popovich. Therefore it should not be any surprise at all that the Spurs have been a strong part of our portfolio through the years, both playing On and Against them. We even wrote a RIM SHOTS column earlier this season talking about the latter, and how there has been outstanding value found playing against them in back-to-back situations. It was not so much a fault of their prep ability for those games, but rather how outstanding Popovich is when he gets added preparation time against any opponent (which really shows in the playoffs).
Tonight we get another example of where the savvy of Popovich comes into play. We write often about this type of setting, an MTG, or “Manage The Game” affair. These are games in which there is a prohibitive favorite that does not have any reason at all to go for a margin, and instead would like to merely win the game with as little effort being spent as possible, and move on. San Antonio fits that profile tonight vs. Indiana, with Popovich knowing that a lot of effort is going to be needed when the Spurs go on the road to face a rested Denver team tomorrow night.
So if smart coaches use MTG situations wisely, and Popovich is possibly the smartest of the smart, would it not make sense that he fits this particular pattern well? He does. As his team gets older he has to manage the minutes carefully, and we believe the best way to isolate these settings is for games after the All Star break. The numbers certainly add up – San Antonio is 15-8 to the Under when laying double figures at home post-break the last three seasons, including a perfect 3-0 so far this campaign. And the key this season is to note just how far off the oddsmakers have been in terms of grasping this – those three games played a collective 82 points Under the Total.
An Indiana team playing back-to-back nights has little say in this one; all the Pacers can do is dance to the tune that the Spurs play. It will be a slow one.
Insider Sports Report
Clemson -1
Brandon Lang
15 Dime - Rockets
5 Dime - Stanford - Cal - Arizona
FREE - St. Joseph's
Info Plays
3* on UCLA -8.5
UCLA beat Stanford by 9 points on the road already this season. They have dominated the Cardinal in each of the last two meetings. After playing 3 straight home games, Stanford will be in for a treat when they hit the road for the first time in nearly a month. UCLA is winning their home games by 22 points per game this season. UCLA is 17-9 ATS in all lined games this season. UCLA is 8-1 ATS after a game where they failed to cover the spread this season. After a close road win at Arizona the last time out, UCLA will crush Stanford at home tonight. Bet UCLA at home.
STRIKE POINT SPORTS
2-Unit Play.Take Clemson -1.5 over Georgie Tech
After a big comeback at Maryland this past Sunday, look for the Tigers to finish off an impressive week in Atlanta. Clemson turned in perhaps its best win of the season over the Terps last time out, and I think that only springboards momentum on its side here. The Yellow Jackets are 12-16 on the season and a model for inconsistency with a sub .500 home record. Tech has lost seven of its last ten games overall, and the stronger and deeper team, Clemson, will score the win in this ACC match-up.
3-Unit Play.Take Xavier -1.5 over St. Joe's
After two sputtering losses in a row for the Hawks, it's Xavier that has more to play for now. The X-Men are looking for as high a seed as possible for the Big Dance, and they won't slip up here prior to the A-10 conference tournament. St. Joe's has pretty much eliminated itself with its back-to-back home losses, and they won't have enough against this tough and talented Musketeers team. There is a reason why Xavier is 25-4. They are more than legit, and they will come through with victory in this one.
2-Unit Play.Take Michigan State -2 over Illinois
I just cannot see a scenario where the Spartans flop against Illinois after their blowout win over Indiana this past weekend. Yes, Michigan State has shown some weak spots on the road in conference this year, but with the th Big Ten tourney next weekend, we'll see a focused Spartans team that gets the job done away from East Lansing tonight. The favorite is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings, and Michigan State will have enough to leave town with the win.
1-Unit Play.Take Stanford +8.5 over UCLA
This is a much different Cardinal team than we saw host the Bruins in first meeting. Stanford has a dynamic duo in the post in Brook and Robin Lopez. But also, the backcourt has stepped up its game, with the likes of Anthony Goods and Mitch Johnson elevating their games to help carry this team to the top ten. The regular season Pac-10 title is on the line in this big game in Westwood, and I think we'll see a highly competitive game throughout with the winner taking this one by no more than a two or three basket margin.
WUNDERDOG
Game: George Washington at N C Charlotte
Pick: N C Charlotte -9
Saint Bonaventure has won just eight games all season, and the teams they beat are pretty much at the bottom of the barrel. The reason we mention this, is George Washington has played 12 road games and that is their only win. The other 11 have all resulted in double-digit losses. Charlotte has had some impressive games at home this season and has covered five of their last six conference hook ups. The home resume includes a two-point loss to Xavier, a four-point loss to Maryland, and wins over Southern Illinois, Wake Forest, and Davidson. George Washington is being out-scored on the road 78-61 in 12 games, and has just one player in their top eight scorers shooting over 43%. They have no player averaging more than two assists per game resulting in 349 turnovers to 293 assist. Should be a double-digit win for Charlotte.
Espozito
UCONN
CLEMSON
STANFORD
Eddie Roman
XAVIER
DEPAUL
MISSOURI St
Stu Feiner
ARIZONA
CLEMSON
PROVIDENCE
Black Widow Sports
1* on USC -8.5
USC is fighting for their NCAA Tournament lives. They will put a serious beating on Cal at home tonight because of it. Cal has lost 5 of their last 6 games overall while yielding over 80 points per game during this atrocious losing streak. USC beat Cal by 18 points in their last home meeting with the Bears. The Trojans will be playing with revenge on their minds following a loss at Cal earlier this season. USC is 7-0 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 75 or more points over the last 2 seasons. USC is 16-4 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons. Head coach Tim Floyd is one of the best in the country at making adjustments and relaying it to his players. Expect O.J. Mayo and company to respond in a big way tonight. Take USC and lay the points.
Larry Ness
California @ USC
PICK: USC
REASON FOR PICK: The Trojans may have fallen flat on their faces by losing their opener at home to Mercer this year but USC has come a long way since then. It enters tonight's home game with Cal at 18-10 overall and 9-7 in the Pac 10. Win here and the Trojans are almost assured on an NCAA at-large bid. Freshman OJ Mayo (20.7-4.4-3.0) was not the only first-year star for USC to make a big impression this year, as the 6-8 Jefferson (12.1-6.3) has also had a big impact on Tim Floyd's team.Three second-year players, the 6-9 Gibson (10.3-7.7) plus guards Lewis (10.8) and Hackett (9.0-3.8-3.5) make USC a young but still very talented team. Cal has been a huge disappointment and enters this game off three straight losses (five of six), sporting just 15-12 overall mark, including a 6-10 Pac 10 record. The 6-10 Anderson (21.5-9.9) is one of the league's best big men and is joined by the 6-11 Hardin (9.8-7.8), the 6-8 Boykin (7.1-4.3) and the 6-7 Vierneisel (5.3-2.5)) in the frontcourt. Two sophs, Christopher (15.4-3.6) and Randle (11.6-4.0 APG) give the Bears a solid backcourt duo, making it somewhat hard to believe this team's record is not better. However, I don't see the Bears putting up much resistance in this game, as USC has a lot to play for and surely doesn't want to have to face No. 7 Stanford on Saturday, coming off a loss. These teams met on January 3 up in Berkeley (Pac 10 opener for both), with Cal winning 92-82 . In that game, the Bears made 11-of-25 three-pointers, while USC was just 5-of-20 behind the arc. OJ Mayo scored 34 for the Trojans but was just 3-of-10 on three-pointers. The Trojans actually shot 61.9 percent in that contest from INSIDE the three-point circle and Tim Floyd may just point that out to his team before it takes the court tonight. The Trojans own an impressive 72-63 win at Pauley over the Bruins plus have two "good losses" against Kansas (59-55) and Memphis (62-58 in OT at Madison Square Garden) as part of their at-large resume. However, a good old-fashioned blowout over a slumping Cal team, may be the final piece USC needs to get an invitation to the Big Dance. Expect a comfortable Trojan win tonight.
John Ryan
Xavier vs. St Joseph's
Play: St Joseph's
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on St Josephs – AiS shows a 70% probability that STJ will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 32-10 ATS for 76% since 1997. Play on home teams as a dog or pick after going over the total by 48 or more points total in their last seven games and is a good team sporting a winning percentage of 60-80% or more for the season. STJ is supported by several roles one of which is revenge from their earlier season loss at Xavier on February 10th 76-72. STJ is 6-0 ATS after a loss by 6 points or less this season; 8-2 ATS revenging a loss versus opponent this season; 7-1 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses this season. Take St. Josephs
Rocketman Sports
UC Davis vs. Cal Irvine
Play: UC Davis
Cal Irvine is 1-7 ATS since 1997 at home when the total is 130 to 134 1/2. Cal Irvine is 1-6 ATS last 3 years against poor offensive teams scoring 64 points per game or less after 15 or more games. Cal Irvine is 1-7 ATS last 3 years and 1-5 ATS this year against poor offensive teams scoring 64 points per game or less. Anteaters are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Anteaters are 7-16-1 ATS in their last 24 games following a ATS win. Anteaters are 7-21-2 ATS in their last 30 games following a SU win. We'll recommend a small play on UC Davis tonight!