BEN BURNS
COLLEGE
GEORGIA TECH
Game: Virginia vs. Georgia Tech
Prediction: Georgia Tech Reason: I'm playing on GEORGIA TECH. With little hope of making the postseason, it would have been easy for the Yellow Jackets to go through the motions. Instead, they played very hard down the stretch, going 3-1 SU/ATS their final four games and bringing some solid momentum into the tournament. As coach Paul Hewitt had to day: "No matter how tough I am on them or if I am patting them on the back, they come out and play hard..." It also would have been easy for Hewitt to give into temptation and give playing time to his younger players. Instead, Hewitt has stuck with his seniors, trying to win now. "I have some seniors who have put in a lot of time and effort in our program, and they deserve their playing time..." Hewitt went on to say of the senior class: "...They want to leave here and make sure they show people what they can do." The Yellow Jackets lone loss down the stretch was a 2-point loss vs. Virginia. That should provide them with some additional motivation here and its also worth noting that the Jackets are 2-0 SU/ATS the last two times (5-2 ATS L7) that they faced a team which defeated them at home in their previous meeting. The Jackets are healthy, hungry and highly motivated. The loss vs. Virginia (note that they did beat the Cavs by double-digits at Virginia earlier) came when they were in the middle of a three games in five days stretch and they were beaten largely due to the fact that the Cavs won the game with second-chance baskets. Playing with signifcantly more rest this time, look for the Jackets to do a better job of running down the loose balls, as they advance and drop the Cavs to 1-7 ATS the last eight times that they faced a team which allows 77 or more points per game. *Main Event
RICHMOND
Game: St. Josephs vs. Richmond
Prediction: Richmond Reason: I'm taking the points with RICHMOND. The Hawks are favored by this much as they have a balanced scoring attack, have tournament experience and because they blew out the Spiders at St. Joseph's earlier. However, the young Spiders have improved since that January meeting and they closed the season on a 12-7 run. Their 9-7 conference record tied them for fourth with both Charlotte and St. Joseph's. The Spiders earned the first round bye though, due to the fact that they defeated Charlotte in both meetings while the Hawks lost their only meeting vs. Charlotte. I believe that winning conference record shows that the Spiders are better than they showed when they faced the Hawks earlier. As Richmond head coach Chris Mooney had to say: "Earning a bye is a really great thing for us, it says a lot about our guys and our program and how hard we've worked." I expect that first round bye to pay dividends as its given them plenty of time to recover from a blowout loss to Xavier in the regular season finale and plenty of time to prepare for this afternoon's game. While they won their home finale, prior to the loss at Xavier, the Spiders had also won three of their past four road games with the lone loss coming by six points. They had also gone nine straight games without suffering a double-digit loss. The Spiders are 3-1 ATS the last four times that they were listed as neutral court underdogs in the +6.5 to +9 range and they're also 6-0 SU/ATS the last six times they were coming off a conference loss. Look for them to bounce back from the loss to Xavier as they take this game down to the wire with a shot at the outright win. *Roast
XAVIER
Game: Dayton vs. Xavier
Prediction: Xavier Reason: I'm laying the points with XAVIER. The Musketeers were 2-0 SU/ATS against the Flyers in the regular season, winning by an average of 16 points. They also beat the Flyers by 21 points in last year's tournament. In addition to having the stronger overall team, the Musketeers have also got the schedule in their favor. While the Musketeers haven't played since crushing Richmond by 25 points on 3/8, the Flyers come off a hard-fought overtime win vs. St. Louis yesterday. The Flyers, who have lost by nine or more points five times this season, failed to cover as favorites in that game. Including the blowout loss at Xavier in January, they're also a poor 1-7 ATS the last eight times that they were listed as underdogs of greater than eight points. The Musketeers, 8-6-1 ATS the last 15 times they were favored by greater than eight points, come in with a chip on their shoulder. That's because they feel that they're even better than their national ranking indicates and because they feel snubbed that none of them were selected to the all-conference first team by the opposing A-10 coaches. They're now determined to crush their conference rivals in this tournament. As Stanley Burrell, the Atlantic 10 Defensive Player of the Year, had to say: "We went 14-2, top 10 in the nation. Forget first team, Josh (Duncan) is probably player of the year. You've got the best team and nobody on the first-team all-conference team? It's ridiculous. You talk about not having motivation? We got plenty now. I'm really looking forward to Atlantic City now..." Three of the Musketeers' last four victories have come by double-digits and I look for another one here today, as they improve to 6-1 ATS their last seven conference tournament games. *Annihilator
HOCKEY
MINNESOTA
Game: New Jersey Devils vs. Minnesota Wild
Prediction: Minnesota Wild Reason: I'm playing on MINNESOTA. This is a big game for both teams but an arguably bigger one for Minnesota. That's because the Devils are battling for the top spot in the East while the Wild are winless (0-2-2) in their last four games and are now just barely hanging onto one of the final playoff spots in the West. Despite the recent winless slide, the Wild are still 19-11-4 (19-15 vs. moneyline) at home, slightly better than New Jersey's 18-12-5 (18-17 vs ml) mark on the road. The Devils didn't look sharp in their last game, losing 4-0 to Montreal. They did win their previous three games. However, all three of those came against Eastern Conference teams (Toronto twice and TB) which aren't likely to be in the playoffs. Prior to that, they'd lost three straight when facing teams (Carolina, Washington, Montreal) which are likely to be in the playoffs, or in Washington's case, at least have a fighting chance. The point that I am trying to make is that the Devils are far from unbeatable and that they currently aren't playing particularly well at the moment, at least not as well as the media and public perceives them to be. On the other hand, the Wild aren't playing as badly as their 4-game losing streak indicates. They earned a point in two of those games with each of the least three losses coming by one goal. Unlike the Devils, they also showed positive signs in their last game. Trailing 2-0 vs. the Sharks, a team which had won eight straight and which is one of the best in the league, the Wild rallied back to force overtime. Despite that eventual 3-2 loss, the Wild remain a profitable 30-17 (+14.4) the past decade when coming off three or more consecutive losses, including a 14-7 mark in that role the past three seasons. I look for the Wild to improve on those stats this evening, as they find a way to earn the valuable two points. *Best Bet
The Fat Jack
TEXAS A&M-11
MICHIGAN +1
FLORIDA STATE-1
TEXAS TECH +3 1/2
WEST VIRGINIA +1
UTEP +4
Michael Cannon
20 Dime –
LSU
Take Lsu as the tiny chalk this afternoon in the first round of the SEC Tournament.
The Tigers have been a different team under interim coach Butch Pierre. He turned his players loose on offense and it’s paid big dividends, as big men Chris Johnson and Anthony Randolph each can get up and down the court.
But the biggest beneficiary has been guard Marcus Thornton, who has exploded for 34 ppg over the last three games.
South Carolina hasn’t exactly rallied down the stretch for retiring coach Dave Odom, losing five of its last six games (2-4 ATS).
Lsu has won the last four meetings with South Carolina, going 3-1 ATS.
Take Lsu minus the small number as they grab the win and cover this afternoon.
15 Dime –
CONNECTICUT
Take UConn as the small chalk in the 2nd round of the Big East Tournament over West Virginia.
It’s hard not to like UConn at this price. They are 3-1 SUATS in their last four games, including a 96-51 pasting of Cincinnati on Sunday.
West Virginia has played hard for coach Bob Huggins, but they are still adapting to his style of play and they don’t match up well with the Huskies.
Joe Alexander has had a hot hand for the Mountaineers, but he’s going to have a hard time penetrating against a tough UConn interior defense.
The Huskies have good balance in their offense, which will make it hard for West Virginia to key on any one particular player.
Take UConn as they grab the win and cover this afternoon.
5 Dime –
FLORIDA
Take Florida minus the points over Alabama tonight in the first round of the SEC tournament.
I’m aware that Florida has struggled lately, losing its last three games. But it’s not like Alabama has had any success whatsoever in conference play away from home this year.
The Crimson Tide is winless on the road in SEC play and I don’t see them righting the ship tonight.
Florida, despite its struggles, has been efficient offensively, averaging 78 ppg and shooting 49 percent from the field.
The Gators should be able to enjoy success against an Alabama defense that ranked near the bottom of the SEC in scoring, field goal and 3-point defense.
Alabama has been knocked out in the first round of the SEC tournament in each of the last two seasons and I don’t see anything changing this year.
Take Florida minus the points as they grab the win and cover
Sean Higgs
20* Ok. St (GOW)
10* Xavier
10* Texas A&M
5* Boise St.
David Chan
LSU -1.5
Keith Martin
Michigan ov 113
Minnesota ov 129
Comp - Tex AM ov 122.5
MR.A's
Washington Wizards - 3
Phoenix Suns - 5
Scott Delaney
10* LSU
10* Baylor
10* Suns
Philly Connection
Georgia+5
DOCS EARLY PLAY
4 Unit Play.Take Florida State -1 over Wake Forest
Drew Gordon
Early Games.
1. 50,000* Louisiana State
2. 50,000* Miami-Florida
1. Louisiana State- Despite struggling for a good chunk of the season, its clear this Louisiana State team is rolling right now, 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS over their last 5 games! Their struggles weren't due to a lack of talent, but more so a conservative system run by ex-coach John Brady. With interim coach Butch Pierre letting his boys run-and-gun, the Tigers have finally found a system that fits their young, but very talented personnel, averaging 80 ppg on 47% shooting over their last 5!
Herein lies the problem for South Carolina, as the Tigers have progressed, the Gamecocks have regressed, losing 4 of their last 5 SUATS, including a 62-55 loss at home to LSU back on February 27th. Gamecocks will never be confused with an offensive juggernaut, but lately its gotten real bad, scoring just 59 ppg on 37% shooting over their last 5 games... Just how in the hell do you expect them to keep pace with this Tigers offense when they can't break 60?!
We learned a lot from their last meeting, but most importantly, was the fact the Gamecocks had no answer for bigmen Randolph (20 points 10 boards) or Johnson (13 points, 10 boards, 6 blocks). Nothing has changed in 2+ weeks since that meeting, and there's little reason to expect anything but solid games from the LSU frontcourt, which is a big problem for South Carolina because that's not even their # 1 weapon. Their # 1 weapon is Marcus Thornton, who's averaging 34 ppg over his last 3 games, and with his frontcourt surging in this match up, he'll be free dominate the perimeter (38 points 6-12 from 3-point against a rock-solid Mississippi State defense in his last one).
Bottom line, South Carolina is in no condition to battle a surging Louisiana State team in this opening round SEC match up. Tigers just beat the Gamecocks on their own court a couple weeks ago, and now on a neutral court, the disparity between these two teams really stands out. Gamecocks have no answer for the Tigers frontline, and good luck stopping a red-hot Thornton on the perimeter as well! Long story short, Tigers roll in this match up!
Take Louisiana State over South Carolina in this SEC Tourney First Round match up.
2. Miami-Florida- Hurricanes are playing great basketball of late, but are coming off a tough loss to rival Florida State, which immediately puts their NCAA Tourney status in jeopardy... Exactly the kind of motivation you want to take advantage of coming into the conference tournament. In other words, most analysts agree that Miami will have to make some noise in the ACC tourney or risk falling out of favor with the Selection Committee, and coming out flat this afternoon is NOT an option.
Enter N.C. State, a team struggling mightily, losers of 8 in a row SU & 7 of those 8 ATS. They blew their wad trying to beat Duke, resulting in a nice cover, but don't be fooled, as other than that the Wolfpack has been more of a "Terrier-pack" over the last month or so! Biggest reason for the fall is defense or lack thereof, allowing a mind-boggling 79 ppg on 45% shooting over their last 5 games!
As if the 'Canes needed more motivation, let's not forget there's some payback in order this afternoon for the Wolfpack, who beat Miami 79-77 in Raleigh back on January 19th, before N.C. State collpased. The Wolfpack are different team this time around, as the losses have mounted, their confidence and effort has dropped off considerbaly. Miami on the other hand, cannot afford anything but a "max-effort" in this one.
Finally, looking over their last meeting, its clear this Hurricanes team has progressed since then. In that game, Miami dominated the boards (42-28 rebounding margin), but got little from Dwayne Collins or Brian Asbury... Two of their best frontline players. Collins was key in Miami's win over Duke and Asbury gives the 'Canes an excellent 3-point threat (40% from 3-point). We know Jack McClinton will lead the show, but its Miami's deep frontcourt that makes the difference in this one.
Bottom line, with an NCAA tourney bid and revenge in play this afternoon, look for a highly-motivated Hurricanes squad to put this Wolfpack team out of its misery in this one. Miami is playing better on both ends of the court, not to mention their strong edge in the paint (on the boards) thanks to their frontline depth. In the end, Miami advances, winning and covering against a sputtering N.C. State team.
Take Miami-Florida comfortably over N.C. State in this ACC Opening Round match up.
Drew Gordon
Tonight's Games
1. 200,000* Florida
2. 50,000* Utah
1. Florida- This is a bad match up for Alabama for a multitude of reasons, but none bigger than their struggles on the road this season, going winless on the SEC trail! One of the first things I look at during tournament play is how a team fared on the road, because usually poor road play translates into poor neutral court play.
Granted, the Tide are 2-0 SUATS in neutral court games this season, but if you believe their wins against Missouri State and Iowa State (on neutral courts) count for something, then you don't know basketball.
Fact of the matter is this Alabama team struggled time and again on the road, averaging 69 ppg on 43% shooting, while allowing 75 ppg on 46% shooting away this season. A big part of their road woes was do to the loss of PG Ronald Steele, forcing the Tide to play without their senior floor leader, leaving them vulnerable in high-pressure situations. More of the same tonight, as Brandon Hollinger has been decent as his replacement, but he's nowhere near the playmaker.
Biggest issue for the Tide is match ups, as the Gators have the frontcourt personnel necessary to combat star F Richard Hendrix, who's the heart and soul of this Alabama offense. As good as Hendrix is, Florida F Marreese Speights is just as good if not better. True, Hendrix dominated their only match up this season, despite the fact the Gators won and covered in Alabama. However, I'd be willing to bet that Speights has been praying for another crack at Hendrix, and tonight, he'll get his chance. Don't sleep on F Dan Werner either, as he's been rock-solid alongside Speights this season.
Where the Gators really start to have an edge is in the backcourt, as Calathes, Hodge and Lucas would all start and post better numbers than any Tide guard on the Alabama roster. Not only has Calathes been named SEC Co-Freshmen of the Year, but both Hodge and Lucas proved in their last meeting with Alabama that the Tide guards cannot cover them, combining for 36 points on 11 for 17 shooting (6 for 8 from beyond the arc)! If they can get it done in Alabama, there's little reason to believe they can't get it done in Atlanta.
Finally, examing the number on this contest, I strongly believe the Gators come into this game undervalued. Yes, they lost their last 3 games SUATS, but look at the competition before you write them off - against a solid Mississippi State team, Tennessee (speaks for itself), and at Kentucky - all tough contests, that would've hand losses to most teams in the country. Look guys, its clear that Florida needs to make some real noise in the SEC tourney to go Dancing, and thanks to their recent losses, they not only must win, but we're also getting a reasonable price on this contest. Florida rolls!
Take Florida comfortably over Alabama as your top-rated play of the day.
2. Utah- Look guys, I've ridden this New Mexico team to some nice paydays over the last month or so, where the Lobos have gone 8-1 ATS over their last 9 games. However, since I'm obviously siding with Utah, there must be something about the Utes that has me changing course. That "something" is the two fold:
First, I believe the number on this contest screams: "Please Mr. Uninformed Bettor take New Mexico!" Guys, the fact of the matter is Utah has played the Lobos razor close in 4 straight meetings, including 3 of those 4 going into overtime! Their most recent meeting was a 72-71 New Mexico win in Salt Lake City, setting the stage for a double-revenge effort tonight in Las Vegas.
Second, unless you watched the Utes this season, their 16-13 record can be extremely deceiving. They may have lost 13 games, but they sure as hell didn't play like it... 6 of their 7 losses came in the final 2 minutes, while another 2 losses came in OT, including the one to New Mexico back on January 22nd. In other words, this Utes team is better than 16-13, and their only chance to prove it will be tonight against the Lobos.
Finally, the one trend that stands out above all the rest is the fact the underdog is 10-4-1 ATS over their last 15 meetings... What does that tell you? Exactly what I've been saying all along, these games are razor close, with the underdog having every chance of covering late! You can expect more of the same tonight, as New Mexico wasn't nearly as good away from the Pit this season, and will be facing a highly-motivated Utah team hell-bent on revenge and earning some respect.
Take Utah plus the points over New Mexico in this MWC Quarterfinals showdown.
Gavozzi
5*Akron
5*UAB
4*GTown
4*WMich
4*Houston U
4*BYU
3*Richmond
3*Vandy--
NBA
3*Phoenix
Winner's Circle
LSU & FLORIDA
5 UNITS EACH
Wayne Root
Chairman--BYU
Millionare--UConn
Money maker--Florida
No Limit--T Tech
Inner circle-Miami Fla
Billionare--Vandy
Perfect play--UNLV
Big Al
Championship--Idaho
Blue Chip--Memphis
Linemover--Boise St
10 dimes--Vandy
Offshore steam--UCLA
Computer Boys--Georgetown
Dr. Bob
Georgetown (-6) over Villanova, 3-Stars at -7 or less, 2-Stars at -7 1/2 points.
Byu (-18) over Colorado State, 2-Stars at -19 or less.
Rotation #838 - Western Michigan (-7) over Eastern Michigan, 3-Stars at -8 or less, 2-Stars at -8 1/2 or -9
Akron (-8) over Central Michigan,
3-Stars at -8 or less, 2-Stars at -8 1/2 or -9.
Houston (-4) over Utep, 3-Stars at -5 or less, 2-Stars at -5 1/2.
Xavier (-9 1/2) over Dayton,
2-Stars at -10 or less, 3-Stars at -9 or less
Philly-Connection Premium Plays
3* UCLA-12.5
3* Massachusetts-3.5
Eryn Renning 20* Big Ten total
MINNESOTA / NORTHWESTERN under
Bob Akmens
CBB
Missouri/Nebraska OV 134.5
Utah/New Mexico OV 128.5
NHL
Tampa/Bruins OV 5.5
Indiancowboy? Thanks.
INDIAN COWBOY'S PLAY OF THE DAY:
OKLAHOMA STATE vs TEXAS TECH Play: Oklahoma State -4 (POD)
INDIAN COWBOY'S PLAY OF THE DAY: Oklahoma State -4 (POD)
Understand that I have not done the research on the full card yet, but this is a game that I had siphoned off yesterday. Long story short here, Oklahoma State is a team that I took against Texas on the road to cover the +11.5 on the Longhorns senior day. This team is no joke and their coach has them playing very well as this team remember defeated Kansas at home, nearly beat Texas on the road, defeated Missouri and A&M on the road, two teams in the top 40 and plays this game in Kansas where Texas Tech does not do very well on the road. How bad is not well? Well considering that Texas Tech lost by 20+ to this team the first time they played away from home, they did get revenge at home but they play well at home even defeating Texas - but of course, falling to Baylor later. TT is a top 90 team and Oklahoma State is a top 50 team that is actually looking for revenge here and they closed out the season very strong. I like State here with the revenge, playing very good basketball and TT remember in their last series of 5 road ballgames lost by 58 to Kansas, 54 to Texas A&M, 11 to Nebraska and 6 to Baylor. Okie State should win by 10-12 according to my numbers today.
INDIAN COWBOY: ILLINOIS vs PENN STATE Play: Penn State +8
INDIAN COWBOY SELECTION: Penn State +8
Well, what do you expect me to do with a team that has beat an Illinois team outright twice this season including 52-51 at home and on the road 68-64. Thus, even with similar records for the most part, why is Indiana getting so much respect here as you still have to explain why a line is a certain way before you blindly jump into it. My reasoning is that Illinois is getting respect for their program and their traditional run that they have had for so long, yet Penn State is a decent team, and yes, they looked terrible at Wisconsin, and they are 60 power rankings away from Illinois - but, they play a half-court game as does Illinois - just take a look at the total for this game set at 118. Getting 8 points on a total of 118 on a team that can win outright as they have done the previous 2 times is enough reason for me. Am I still a little queezy about the line, sure. But, Illinois is questionable away from home as well and Penn State does come off nice win over Indiana at home. I could regret this pick later, but I like Penn State to potentially win this game outright and the 8 points is just too much to pass up imo