Malinsky
4* xavier, LSU, vilanova
Computer Crushers Guaranteed Selections
500,000 UNIT SEC TOURNAMENT PLAY OF THE YEAR
Vanderbilt -8
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
PHO vs GSW
Analysis: Play ON Phoenix Suns (-) vs Golden State
This game is part of a two week stretch where the Suns don't play any back to back games and it already seems to be benefitting
them as they have finally received the benefit of some much needed rest. The Suns are coming off of back to back solid home wins where they outscored the opposition by an average of 14 points per game. The fact that one of those games came against a tough San Antonio team says a lot about Phoenix finally making some strides with Shaquille O'Neal in the mix. The lack of back to back games is good for O'Neal as it allows him to rest up and give the Suns more productive minutes with each game. Suns coach Mike D'Antoni is happy with the defensive progress that Phoenix has made with Shaq in the middle. He feels the rest of the team is finally adjusting to having the big man taking care of the middle and now everyone else seems to have adjusted their roles accordingly. The key benefit for the Suns when it comes to facing the Warriors is that Golden State likes to try and get out and run. However, this will play right into the hands of the Suns just like it did when Memphis tried to run with Phoenix on Tuesday. The Suns were only leading the Grizzlies 16-15 in the first quarter when Memphis started to try to push the tempo. The result was a 25-5 run by Phoenix and they simply never looked back. After that, the Suns had built a 21-point lead and they even grew that lead to a season-high lead of 39 points before settling for the 21-point margin of victory. After blowing out the Grizzlies it
appears that the Suns have their confidence back...they have their swagger back. That is bad news for a Golden State team that will be playing in a tough scheduling spot here. The Warriors will be coming off of a game Wednesday night at home against the Raptors. Not only is this is a back-to-back situation (plus travel) for the Warriors,it's also a spot where Golden State is playing right into the 'teeth' of revenge. The Suns lost by a bucket to the Warriors last month in Golden State and it's now revenge time. Note that the Suns O'Neal didn't play in that game and it was also on the road. Now it's time for home revenge behind another strong effort from a rested O'Neal and his rested teammates. After running with the Raptors last night, the Warriors will run out of gas against a highly confident Suns team tonight. Lay the points with Phoenix for what should be a blowout win on Thursday night.
Gator's NBA/CBB 70% Report
CBB:
Thursday: Play On CBB Neutral court teams, a team that allows <=63 points per game against a team that allows 63-67 points per game after 15+ games, after a combined score of 125 points or less 2 straight games 28-6 ATS last 5 seasons (82.4%) PLAY: Louisville -4
Wunderdog
Game: Tampa Bay at Boston
3 units on Tampa Bay +146 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 4.4)
Bartolo Colon gets the ball for the first time in a Red Sox uniform and we aren't expecting much. He will be followed by two players also having trouble in Taveras (7.94) and Snyder (7.50). The Rays counter with a trio all having good springs as Garza (3.86) starts, followed by Howell (1.59) and Talbot (0.00). Rays are 6-0 on the road and creating a winning attitude while the Sox get their work in, and not paying attention.
Game: Pittsburgh at New York Yankees
2 units on Pittsburgh +168 (moneyline) (risk 2 to win 3.4)
Mike Mussina squares off against Paul Maholm as the Pirates travel to play the Yankees. Mussina struggled all last season and has continued his struggles this spring with a 9.64 ERA in two starts. This isn't the regular season Yankees, although the line reflects it, and too hard to resist the value here as the Yanks are just 2-3 at Legends Field and have what appears to be their weakest link on the hill.
Game: Florida at Washington
2 units on Florida +106 (moneyline) (risk 2 to win 2.1)
Florida will start Hendrickson (3.60) against Redding (7.50), who gave up five runs in his last outing. The Marlins' bats are booming with five HR's yesterday bringing their spring total to 18. They are 7-1 on the road while runs have been hard to come by for the Nats. Too many games scoring three or less for the Nats against a Florida team hitting the ball out of the park with regularity.
Wunderdog CBB Plays
Game: Villanova vs. Georgetown
4 units on Villanova +6 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)
We had to ponder some numbers regarding Georgetown. Why does a team that shoots 48.3% and 37.1% from three-point range, as well as the best FG percentage defense in the country at 36.4% (and just 29.1% from beyond the arc) struggle against good teams? We have the answer, and along with it, why there is value on Villanova today. Georgetown has dominated the bottom of the conference winning virtually every game by double-digits. It has been a completely different story against the top nine teams, those that are on the bubble, or NCAA tournament teams. All eight games against the bottom resulted in double-digit wins. Their 10 against the top nine have resulted in one double-digit win, three losses, and six wins all decided by three points or less. This is why. They average three more turnovers per game, they are sending the opponent to the line eight more times per game, and they are giving up four more offensive rebounds per game. They have committed more turnovers than these opponents in nine straight games, sent the opponent to the FT line in seven straight for more attempts (10 on average), and have given up 5.4 more offensive rebounds per game in the last eight. That means 10 free throws at an average of 70% is seven points lost, which means that three more possessions at a conversion rate of 40% is 2.4 points and 5.4 more offensive rebounds at a conversion rate of 40% is 4.3 points a game. The Hoyas are spotting opponents 13.7 points a game! These teams also shoot better than what they allow on the season. The bottom line is Villanova is fighting to get over the bubble and Georgetown finds a way to win these games, but not by this size margin. Value on Nova.
Game: South Carolina vs. L S U
5 units on L S U -2 (-110) (risk 5 to win 4.6)
Two teams that finished the season at opposite ends of the spectrum meet here. The Gamecocks have regressed during the season, closing with a 2-7 mark which included a 7 point loss at home to LSU. The Bayou Bengals have come together late, closing with a 6-4 mark, after starting conference play 0-5. LSU has improved ahead of the odds-makers realization, covering nine of last 11 after opening 2-12 ATS. The difference is the offense coming together, going from 63 ppg in first eight games to 71 ppg in last eight. Look for the Tigers to stay hot, and put an end to the Gamecocks season.
Game: Alabama vs. Florida
3 units on Alabama +145 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 4.4)
Florida has won this tournament the past three years. But, we see them making an early exit today, ending their hopes of making it to the big Dance. Florida beat Bama back in January and revenge is sweet. Alabama's Richard Hendrix is fourth in the conference in scoring and leads it in rebounding. Alonzo Gee and Mykal Riley round make it three players averaging double-digit scoring. If these three are on, the Gators won't win this game. Florida is very young and the later it gets in the season, the more the pressure will build on these players. Alabama can shoot, hitting 46% from the field. Florida has really struggled against such teams this season as they are 4-9 straight-up vs. teams hitting over 45%. Kentucky put up 75 on the Gators last game and Tennessee lit them up for 89 the game prior. We like the Tide's chances here and will back them for a moneyline win.
Game: Georgia vs. Mississippi
4 units on Mississippi -4.5 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)
After a 2-1 hopeful start in SEC play, Georgia has fallen flat. They finished conference play at 2-11. They shoot just 42% and find it hard to score, going through extensive droughts. A true measure of these teams was seen as SEC play came to a close when the Bulldogs, home-court and all, lost to the Rebels by 14. Ole Miss started strong, endured a mid-season slump, and has now won three straight. This is a team that doesn't have trouble scoring, averaging close to 80 per game, and at some point during this game the Bulldogs will go cold, and Ole Miss will put a decisive run on them, keeping their NCAA tourney hopes alive.
Game: St. Josephs vs. Richmond
2 units on Richmond +345 (moneyline) (risk 2 to win 6.9)
Richmond has the higher seed but is getting 8 points. Hmmm. We actually like the Spiders' chances to get the win here. St. Joes' is off an easy opening round win, but let's not forget this team closed the season losing six of their last nine games. Richmond is a team that can force a lot of mistakes as they averaged 16.6 forced turnovers per game and 8.4 steals per game. The Hawks are just 12-23 the past two seasons vs. winning teams and they have struggled with slow-down teams like Richmond, going 6-8 vs. teams that average under 54 shots per game over that span. Richmond has won five of their last seven games vs. winning teams this season including a 4-2 mark vs. teams at 60%+. They are also 4-1 vs. teams that shoot well like Joes. We see this game close at the end and while we see value on Richmond plus the points, we give them a very legitimate shot at winning so we'll back them on the moneyline.
Pointwise
4* New Mexico
4* New Mexico St
3* Nevada
3* LSU
3* Memphis
3* Miami FL
2* Penn St
2* UNLV
2* Kent
John Ryan
5* Calgary -150
Alatex
20* Penn St
Ron Meyer
Chalkboard.....Xavier
Coaches Consensus.....Michigan
Locker Room.....Florida
Live Dog.....Utah U
Dallas Sportsmen.....Texas Tech
Fairway Jay
20*: Miami Hurricanes
Pure Profit
Consensus.....LaSalle
Money Move.....Louisville
High Roller.....Washington State
Power Play.....Houston U
Diamond.....UNLV
Backroom.....BYU
LT Profits
Hawaii
Idaho
Colorado
Will Cover
3*Wash wizards
2*UCONN
2*Utah
INDIAN COWBOY added plays
COLORADO vs BAYLOR
Play: Colorado +9
Comments: INDIAN COWBOY SELECTION: Colorado +9 This game is very similar to the Bearcats covering at Pitt when people thought I had lost my mind and Cincy covered relatively easy hanging in there the whole game. This game is a ditto of that. Colorado comes off not like a 40+ loss like Cincy did, but they do come off a 19 point loss on the road to Nebraska leading up to this game. Colorado has revenge in a game here that they lost to by 11 to Baylor earlier this year. The public is hounding Baylor here over 70% but Baylor consistently has a track record of playing close games on the road or simply away from home. Long story short here, I like Colorado with a bit of revenge, coming off a 19 point loss to Nebraska on the road, Baylor has a tendency to let teams that are worse hang around especially away on the road - also, I've noticed something about Colorado, they get blown out on the road and then come back to play very well in their next game away from home. Examples: Losing by 17 to A&M on the road, then: Losing by 2 on the road to Texas. Losing by 16 on the road at Iowa State. Losing by 1 to Oklahoma State on the road. Losing by 24 to Kansas on the road. Losing by 7 to Missouri on the road. Losing by 6 on the road to Kansas State. Their latest game: Losing by 19 on the road to Nebraska. See a pattern here? This team with the revenge, the fact that Baylor lets teams hang around and on the bounce-back as a nice public fade should be a decent shot at a cover today.
Play: Wizards -2.5 (NBA POD)
Comments: INDIAN COWBOY'S NBA PLAY OF THE DAY: Wizards -2.5 (NBA POD) This is my NBA POD for many reasons as it makes a lot of sense in many ways. I understand the Cavs come off a loss and they are looking for a bounce-back, but given the way the line is, given the fact that the Cavs go for a series sweep of Washington here having beaten them twice, including a close 1 point win on television over Washington, given the fact that Caron Butler and Jamison will play this game likely and the Cavs have looked very questionable on the road losing to the Nets by 5, Chicago by 11 and the Bucks by 3 (although they did beat the Knicks - although that game was competitive most of the way), I think Washington gives them an incredible run for their money today, with revenge, at home and the return of Caron Butler will be a huge boost in the chargers for this team coming back from injury.
BeatYourBookie
NCAA Basketball
100* Penn State (+8) over Illinois
(2:20 P.M. EST)
Illinois is 0-6 ATS coming off a home win this season
Illinois is 3-12 ATS after allowing 60 points or less in the previous game
Illinois is 2-10 ATS coming off a win this season
50* Play Miami (-6) over N.C. State
(2:20 P.M. EST)
N.C. State is 4-14 ATS when the total posted is between 130 and 139.5 points
N.C. State is 0-8 SU over the last 8 games
N.C. State is 1-12 ATS after playing a game as an underdog
50* Play Nebraska (-1.5) over Missouri
(7:00 P.M. EST)
Missouri is 0-6 ATS over the last 6 games
Missouri is 4-11 ATS vs. conference opponents this season
Missouri is 6-20 ATS having lost 2 of the last 3 games the last 3 seasons
Bonus NCAA Games
10* Play Arizona State (+5) over USC
NBA Basketball
50* Play Golden State (+5) over Phoenix
(10:30 P.M. EST)
Golden State is 6-1 SU over the last 7 games
Golden State is averaging over 118 ppg over the last 5 games
Malinsky
6* Top of the Ticket
Marquette
6* Top of the Ticket
Oregon