Matty O'Shea
George Mason vs NotreDame
Analysis: The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are a very confident and talented bunch, but I simply think they will be overconfident in this game going against a team that is used to being underestimated in George Mason. The Patriots advanced to the Final Four just two years ago and will hang tough with Notre Dame in this game until the very end. Fighting Irish head coach Mike Brey was not terribly disappointed that his team lost to Marquette in the quarterfinals of the Big East Tournament, which is a clear sign that he thinks they will have a cakeWalk in the first round. I like this Notre Dame team a lot, but they have a lot to prove to me when playing away from home. I also believe George Mason is a very dangerous foe here in this spot and should stay within the number, so bet the Patriots to cover as my Single DIme NCAA Tournament Underdog Play O' the Day for Thursday.
Washington St. / Winthrop Under 112
Analysis: This is the lowest total on the board, and with good reason. Both teams like to slow the pace of the game and ranked among the Top 10 defensive teams in the country during the regular season. Winthrop held its three opponents to an average of less than 49 points in winning the Big South Tournament while Washington State needs to play better defense in hopes of returning to early-seaSon form when the Cougars got off to a 14-0 start. The UNDER is 8-1 in Winthrop's last nine neutral site games, and I believe this could very well be the lowest-scoring game of the Big Dance, so stay with that trend and bet the UNDER as my Single Dime NCAA Tournament Total Play O' the Day for Thursday.
Kent St. vs UNLV
Analysis: The Kent State Golden Flashes are the real deal, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them duplicate UNLV's run to the Sweet 16 a year ago. The Runnin' Rebels built off last year's success in the NCAA Tournament by having another solid season, due mostly to their outstanding play at home. They have the benefit of playing the Mountain West Tournament at home and capitalized on that by winning it the last two years. They are just an average road team though and will be tested by a Kent State team that was ranKed in the Top 25 for the first time ever after winning at St. Mary's. Even though the Golden Flashes followed that big victory up with a loss, they have rebounded nicely by winning five straight heading into the Big Dance, going 4-1 ATS. They are also an outstanding 16-2 ATS in their last 18 Thursday games, so look for their success to continue here and bet Kent as my Single Dime NCAA Tournament Side Play O' the Day for Thursday.
USA Sports Consulting
USC -2.5 over Kansas State - 1 unit
John Ryan
Texas A&M vs. B.Y.U.
Play: B.Y.U.
BYU versus Texas A&M Thursday March 20, 2008 7:25 EST Tip Seems like a perennial event for BYU to be involved in an 8 versus 9 first round game. These games can many times be the most interesting and exciting to watch given that both teams are near equals. BYU is certainly a team that could go to the elite 8 in this West Region. Looking back the Vegas Tournament held back in November, BYU defeated Louisville nad gave UNC a tremendous test for 38 minutes. They play in the media quiet MWC and this is actually a big advantage for them. Their defense is ferocious to say the least. They rank in the top-10 defending shots both inside and outside the arc and also rank5th in opponents offensive rebounds. Limiting opponents to second chance opportunities is a sure fire recipe to advance in this tournament. Texas A&M is a tale of two seasons. They started out 15-1 and then lost 3 straight and have also 5 of their last 7 coming into the tournament. A&M has struggled mightily on the offensive end and have NO players in the TOP-20 in Big-12 scoring. I like BYU in this game and unfortunately I do not have a 3* grading on this play. What I do have is a 3* play on the OVER for this game and I still think playing BYU is a solid bet though. Let’s take a look at some of the supporting technical systems and angles that support the OVER play. The total is lined at 129 and the AiS shows a 72% probability that 130 or more points will be scored in this game. Here is a supporting system that ahs gone 34-24 OVER for 59% since 1997. Play over with all teams where the total is between 120 and 129.5 points in a game involving two excellent defensive teams allowing a shooting percentage of <=40% and in a game involving two good ball handling team committing <=14.5 TOPG after 15+ games. BYU is on a nice ATS streak and they are 10-2 OVER in road games after covering 2 of their last 3 against the spread over the last 2 seasons. Take the OVER for 3* and BYU for 1.5* plays.
Doc's Sports
Arizona vs. West Virginia
Play:West Virginia
This is pretty much a blind play against the Wildcats who have been one of the most disappointing teams this season and cannot wait for this season to end and bring back Lute and ship out Kevin O’Neil. Granted Arizona has better talent then West Virginia, but they will be making a cross country flight into Washington D.C. and they have yet to live up to expectations this season. West Virginia has the best player on the floor in Joe Alexander and a great coach in Bob Huggins and that will be enough to advance onto the next level for a likely match-up with Duke.
Nelly
Belmont + over Duke
Belmont is a high scoring team that averages over 80 points per game and the Bruins have a veteran squad that played in the NCAA tournament last season. It was a tough match-up for the Bruins last season going against Georgetown but the size and pace that Duke plays should be more what Belmont is used to, albeit still at a big talent disadvantage. Duke continues to be an overrated team and the recent NCAA tournament performances prove the Blue Devils are generally rated higher than they should be. The ACC features a few top tier teams but overall the depth of conference was down considerably this season. Belmont held their own in some early season battles with wins at Cincinnati and at Alabama so the Bruins will know what it takes and relish the opportunity to face Duke. Many are writing off Duke in this tournament which can provide some motivation but it also provides added pressure. Belmont is a team that lives and dies by the 3-point shot with an average of over ten makes per game which can help the Bruins keep up in what should be an exciting fast-paced game.
Tom Scott
Baylor vs Purdue
Play ON:PURDUE minus the points
The euphoria seen in the Baylor locker room when the Bears were announced as the final team in the NCAA tourney field masks the disappointing finish. Baylor started the season like a house afire with 16 wins in its first 18 games, the streak culminated by an emotionally draining five overtime win at neighborhood rival, Texas A&M. Since then, though, the Bears have flattened out considerably winning just five of their last 13 and losing badly to league doormat Colorado in the conference tournament. It was Baylor's defense that disappeared. Before that game against the Aggies, the Bears were allowing 67 points per game. Since that win over A&M, Baylor is coughing up 82 points per game. Purdue has been playing stellar defense all season, allowing only 61 points per game. There's the difference. Both teams can score but Purdue is the one who can get a stop now and then.
PREDICTION: PURDUE 81 - Baylor 68
Vegas Sports Pics
Purdue Boilermakers - 2.5 over Baylor Bears
Baylor (21-10) is making its second NCAA appearance since 1950, the other coming in '88. No.17 Purdue (24-8) is 14-4 ATS last 18 games. The Boilermakers went 1-1 in last season's NCAAs beating Arizona 72-63 losing to eventual national champion Florida 74-67.
Kentucky Wildcats + 6 over Marquette Golden Eagles
No.25 Marquette (24-9) is playing in its third consecutive NCAA tournament, losing in the first round last two seasons. Kentucky (18-12) is making its 17th consecutive NCAA appearance. The Wildcats have won their opening round game each of the past five seasons.
USC Trojans - 2.5 over Kansas State Wildcats
Kansas State (20-11) is in the NCAAs for the first time in 12 years. USC (21-11) is 3-1 last four games, including a 77-64 win over No.11 Stanford, the loss coming to No.3 UCLA 57-54. The Trojans went 2-1 in last season's NCAAs, including an 87-68 win over then No.11 Texas
David Malinsky 4* TEMPLE/MICHIGAN STATE Over
Temple @ Michigan State
PICK: over
The first time Tom Izzo’s Spartans took the court for a lined game this season we cashed an easy 4* Over in an 86-83 win over Missouri at Kansas City that sailed past the 145.5 that was posted. And in our pre-game breakdown we noted how Izzo was acknowledging that this was going to be a different look for his team, with more athleticism than usual, which made getting into the open court a priority. Now fast forward a few months later and we find that it was the only time we were able to make an Over play with the Spartans this season. The Big 10 just does not allow that kind of flow, and Izzo himself fell back on some of his conservative ways in league play. But all that does is set us up with outstanding value for this one, in a game that will flow much more loosely than the current projections.
The Spartans are not going to be slowed down into a half-court game here; Fran Dunphy in fact needs to avoid that if he can. His surging Owls found their chemistry in a major late-season surge, and when you are on that kind of run it means that you play to your strength, rather than trying to adjust to your opponent. That strength is the dynamic combination of 6-5 Dionte Christmas (20.2 points per game) and 6-5 Mark Tyndale (15.9) , a pair of big guards that excel in the open floor, and an offense loaded with players that value the basketball. Combine 47.2 percent shooting with only 421 turnovers in 33 games, and you have an attack that can create matchup problems, particularly for an under-sized Spartan guard trio of 6-0 Drew Neitzel, 6-2 Travis Walton and 6-0 Kalin Lucas.
The problems for Temple are defense around the basket and rebounding. The Owls are just ordinary defensively, and were actually our-rebounded on the season by their opponents, allowing a high 11.4 offensive rebounds per game. And once again an Izzo team attacks the glass tenaciously. The Spartans won the battle of the boards by 7.1 per game vs. a tough schedule, and averaged 12.4 offensive caroms per outing in that span. There are some easy put-backs just waiting to happen.
So what do we have here? An invitation for Michigan State to speed the pace a bit, and the RSVP will be favorable. Izzo will relish the chance to run vs. this class of opponent, with plenty of points available by attacking the rim. Meanwhile a confident Temple team does not back down, with Christmas and Tyndale able to more than hold their own. And in a game that we expect to be competitive there are not going to be many points left under the table - the Owls have shot 74.1 percent from the free throw line this season, and the Spartans 73.1. The pieces are in place for an easy Over.
Stephen Nover
Portland State @ Kansas
PICK: Portland State
REASON FOR PICK: The marketplace has acted decisively on this matchup backing Portland State. The line has come down, but not down enough to ignore Portland State.
The Vikings have enough talent and moxie to get the cover here. Portland State has come on to win 14 of its last 15 games. Kansas is a powerhouse, but the Vikings won't be intimidated having gone against some of the finest Pac-10 teams, including UCLA, Washington State and Washington.
There's no pressure on Portland State. A No. 16 seed has never won a first-round NCAA matchup. Kansas, though, has proven to be vulnerable during the opening round. The Jayhawks lost to a No. 14 seed three years ago in the first round and fell to a No. 13 seed in the opening round two years ago.
Jimmy The Moose
Game: Tampa Bay Lightning at Pittsburgh Penguins
Prediction: over
Reason: The Lightning played last night and gave up 7 goals in a 7-4 loss to the Sabres. Look for Tampa to be a tired team vs. the Penguins who are very very good offensively. The Penguins have played the over in 5 straight games and 8 of their last 10. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. Eastern Conference opponents. Their last 4 games vs. a team with a losing record have played over the total. Play the over tonight.
FAIRWAY JAY
CBB 20* Big Drive: Xavier -8.5
DR. BOB SPORTS
3* Purdue
3* USC
3* Mich State
3* Oral Rob
2* Wash State
Right Angle Sports
2008 NCAA Tournament - First Round
THURSDAY
Oral Roberts (+8.5) vs Pittsburgh - 12:00pm Pacific - Game #729-730
ORU is extremely well coached by Scott Sutton and is making their third consecutive trip to the big dance. The Eagles have multiple marquee wins over major conference teams over the past four seasons and this year they beat Oklahoma State by 15 in Oklahoma City. They also played at Texas A&M, at Texas, and at Arkansas, losing by an average of 11.6ppg which after taking points away for home court would be good enough to cover in this spot. The losses at Arkansas (led at half by 5) and at Texas (trailed by 2 at half) were particularly competitive. ORU is dominated by upperclassmen and ranks #2 in the country in experience by KenPom. They have held opponents to just .397 from the field this season which ranks 23rd nationally. ORU has ten players who average double digit minutes which is a big factor in the high altitude of Denver. Depth, particularly in the front court is not a strength for Pitt who primarily uses just an 8 man rotation. The Panthers are coming off an emotionally and physically challenging four game in four day Big East tournament championship. It was even more special for them with 5 New Yorker's on the roster and having lost in the final the previous two seasons. With Pitt's depth and fatigue issues and ORU's solid half court defense this figures to be a low scoring game. Pitt will have to play near perfect to cover this big number. Take the points.
Play: Oral Roberts +8.5 1 UNIT
Kansas State vs USC (-3.5) - 4:10pm Pacific - Game #721-722
USC is young but very talented with all five starters likely having high level professional careers in their future. The Trojans were raw in non-conference play but still beat four postseason participants by double digits in November alone. They have proven to be competitive with the best teams in the country as they own a win over #1 seed UCLA in Pauley, while losing to #1 seeds Memphis in OT and Kansas by just four. The Memphis loss was played in New York just two days after the Kansas loss and could have been won by the Trojans in regulation with one more made free throw. USC finished the regular season winning 11 of 15 games in arguably the best conference in the country. This was despite losing their most experienced guard Hacket for three full games and all but 2 minutes of another due to injury. They downed tough bubble team Arizona State and played UCLA down to the wire in Pac-10 tourney proving their sharp form. Freshman standout OJ Mayo really stepped up late in the season averaging 24.3ppg over his last eight and showed the ability to take over games. USC is very well coached and have continued to improve all season. Kansas State is also very young but has not shown nearly the same maturity or late season improvement. The Wildcats struggle to shoot outside, play very suspect defense, and often take questionable shots. It was a down year in the Big 12 with a big dropoff after Kansas and Texas. KSU still stumbled to a 2-5 finish in their last seven games and have not been solid away from home all season going just 5-9. USC in comparison went 11-6 away from the Galen Center. Trojans simply outclass the Wildcats here. Give the points.
Play: USC -3.5 1 UNIT
Texas A&M vs BYU (+1.5) - 4:25pm Pacific - Game #737-738
BYU won the regular season MWC title for the second straight year and likely would have been tournament champions if UNLV was not the host. Their 27-7 record is their best 34 game record in 100+ years of history. Their 4-4 record vs the Sagarin top 50 and 11 wins away from home give them a much better resume than last year when they played Xavier close to the wire in a 2 point first round loss. The Cougars beat Louisville and held multiple second half leads vs Michigan State and North Carolina in non-conference play. They have a top notch big man, shoot very well, rebound, play defense, and have one of the best assist rates in the nation. Texas A&M finished just 8-8 in a down Big 12 and played just one true non-conference road game all season. They have struggled with point guard play all year which is a huge negative in the pressure packed environment of the NCAA tournament. With a large Mormon population in Southern California, BYU figures to have an advantage in fan attendance. Take the points and expect a mild upset.
Play: BYU +1.5 1 UNIT
FRIDAY
St. Mary's (+1) vs Miami Fla - 9:30am Pacific - Game #843-844
Everything fell together perfectly for the Gaels this season. With six key returners it was known they would be a good team, but no one had any idea how big of an impact late blooming Australian recruit Patrick Mills would make. Mills not only emerged as a consistent double digit scorer but led the team in assists and steals. Most importantly he made everyone on the team better. SMC has good size for a mid major, F Simpson and C Samhan are capable of playing with the big boys, and depth is solid with little dropoff in talent from 1 through 8. The Gaels are well coached, fundamentally sound, and can be successful playing different styles of basketball. SMC has beaten five different teams in the NCAA tournament field, are 11-5 in games away from home, and even played respectably at Texas. Miami has only beaten three NCAA tournament teams and are 8-8 in games away from home. The Hurricanes finished just .500 in a mediocre ACC and their two biggest wins came by just 1 and 3 points, both on their home court. After a 14-1 start, they are just 8-9 in last 17 games. Canes star guard McClinton went just 6-for-23 in two ACC tournament games. After shooting over 50% in November & December he is only .386 since. Expect the Gaels to get their first tournament win since 1959.
Play: St. Mary's +1 1 UNIT
Connecticut (-11) vs San Diego - 12:00pm Pacific - Game #827-828
Few teams enter the tournament as hot as the Huskies. UConn won 13 of their final 15 regular season games and if the Big East was not competitive enough, they added in a quality road win at Indiana in late January and a 12 point win over Georgia Tech in early February. All of this with third leading scorer Dyson (returned for last five games) missing nine games due to suspension. The Huskies lead the nation in blocked shots per game. Their superior size, strength, and athleticism figure to give San Diego fits. The Toreros have no business being in the dance, but parlayed home court advantage and a miracle comeback win in 2OT over St Mary's to upset Gonzaga in the WCC final. Before the WCC tournament USD went 2-8 (avg loss by 11.25 points) vs teams playing in the postseason, with one of those wins coming at Kentucky when the Wildcats were struggling and San Diego got four 3's from a walk-on freshman. San Diego lost starting guard Murdock (left team) midseason and returning rotation forward Fleming (injury redshirt) before the season. They have no seniors playing and only have 3 upperclassmen in the rotation. UConn will be the best team they have played all season and I do not expect a competitive game. The Huskies are still hungry from missing the tournament last year and will be focused. Give the points.
Play: Connecticut -11 1 UNIT
GOLD SHEET EARLY BASKETBALL LTS RELEASES FOR THURSDAY
GEORGIA +8½ over Xavier
TEMPLE +7 over Michigan State
STANFORD -14½ over Cornell
Rob Veno
West Virginia Over 137
Xavier Over 129.5
Blue Chip: USC -3
Marquette -6
20* Blue Chip: UCLA Over 122