Priceless Picks
1 Unit on Pitt -8.5
I like the Pitt Panthers to keep right on rolling in round one of the Big Dance, riding the momentum they created by winning the Big East title. Pitt comes in having won 5 straight games SU and 4 of its last 5 ATS. Oral Roberts has been relying on its defense this season after losing last season's top two scorers. Oral is going to have to be able to score against Pitt to keep this one close and I just don't see enough fire power on the roster. Pitt was a Sweet 16 team a season ago and is playing its best ball of the year right now. Bet Pitt as the Panthers advance to round two with ease.
Mike Rose
Xavier -8.5 (-110)
3/20 XBOX NCAA TOURNAMENT ATS SIMULATIONS
Opening Round @ Verizon Center, Washington, D.C.
(3) Xavier vs. (11) Georgia: The Bulldogs continue its excellent play it exhibited in the SEC Tournament and comes out on fire. They hold a 9-point lead at the break, 41-32, forcing Musketeer fans to drown their sorrows in their beers during the intermission. However, the Musketeers come out like gangbusters in the second half and open it up with a 15-0 run to take a lead they never surrender. However, the spread is in doubt in the final seconds, but Georgia’s last ditch 3-point attempt clanks off the rim and Stanley Burrell hits the final two FT’s of the game to allow Xavier to cover the spread.
Final Score: Xavier 77 Georgia 67
(11) Baylor vs. (6) Purdue: The Bears and Boilermakers went back and forth throughout the first 17 minutes of the contest, but PU was able to pull away in the last couple minutes to grab a 9-point lead at the half, 33-24. Head Coach Scott Drew must have given one heck of a halftime speech because the Bears started to look like the team that earned a bid to the dance right out of the gates in the second half. Senior guard Curtis Jerrells nailed back-to-back-to-back threes and the Bears took their first lead of the game at the 12-minute mark. Matt Painter’s club didn’t back down though as frosh phenom Robbie Hummel caught fire and scored the Boilers next 10 points to allow them to retake the lead. The score was all knotted up at 76 apiece with 17 seconds left on the clock and the Bears held possession of the ball. Everyone in the building knew it was Jerrells time, and they were right. After letting close to 12 seconds elapse, Jerrells bolted to the rim but instead of taking the shot he dished it off to a wide open Tweety Carter who let one go from beyond the arc. The ball touched nothing but nylon as the buzzer sounded, and the Bears were the proud owners of the first last second win in the tourney.
Final Score: Baylor 79 Purdue 76
(15) Belmont vs. (2) Duke: The Dookies wasted no time in getting ahead of the spread in their evening contest with the Belmont Bruins. Not seven minutes had elapsed from the game clock, yet the Blue Devils had already notched 37 points while holding Belmont to a miniscule 16. DeMarcus Nelson and John Scheyer were unloading from beyond the arc, and Greg Paulus had already registered 10 dimes. Duke held a 63-27 lead at the break, so Coach “K” decided to bring in his bench players to play a bulk of the second half. They went on to win by a 91-64 final count and cover the 20-point spread with ease.
Final Score: Duke 91 Belmont 64
(10) Arizona vs. (7) West Virginia: The Mountaineers came out simply on fire from beyond the arc! Alex Ruoff and Darris Nichols hit 7 of their first 8 attempts to give the Mountaineers a double-digit lead at the 10-minute mark. This left AZ Head Coach Kevin O’Neill scrambling searching for answers, but then his “ptp’ers” stepped up to chew into the lead. WV led 52-44 at the break. Arizona’s porous defense really turned it up in the second half and held WV scoreless for a four-minute mark to allow Bayless and company to tie it up. This took the air out of HC Bob Huggins club, and the Wildcats rolled from there on out. The final score looks closer than it was only because WV nailed a couple of desperation 3’s and the Wildcats kept splitting at the line. Huge underdog win for the Wildcats who now get the pleasure of taking on Duke in Round 2.
Final Score: Arizona 84 West Virginia 78
Arthur Ralph
Super Picks XAVIER
900 GOLD KEY winner ORAL ROBERTS
Free Play: George Mason
EZ WINNERS
5 STAR: (723) GEORGE MASON (+6.5) over Notre Dame
(Risking $550 to win $500)
3 STAR: (733) KENTUCKY (+6) over Marquette
(Risking $330 to win $300)
3 STAR: (709) ARIZONA (+2) over West Virginia
(Risking $330 to win $300)
2 STAR: (718) UNLV (+2) over Kent State
(Risking $220 to win $200)
2 STAR: (737) BYU (+2) over Texas A&M
(Risking $220 to win $200)
Bobby Maxwell
Arizona +2 vs. West Virginia, at Washington, D.C.
Another comp play in the Big Dance today comes with Arizona as we side with the Wildcats to get the job done against West Virginia.
Arizona probably shouldn't be in the tourney based on records and how teams finished the season, but the Wildcats are in and these kids know how to play in the Big Dance. Look for them to be on a mission to prove everybody wrong and show that they belonged in this game.
Arizona beat Oregon State 87-56 in the opening round of the Pac-10 tournament last week then got eliminated by Stanford the next night 75-64, failing as a 2 1/2-point 'dog. But in the Big Dance they are on a 6-1 ATS run and they are 4-0 ATS after a loss, 6-2-1 ATS in non-conference games and 16-7 ATS at neutral sites.
West Virginia has failed in four of its last five neutral site games and got drilled in the semifinals of the Big East tourney, losing 72-55 to Georgetown as a three-point underdog. The Mountaineers come into this contest on a 2-4 ATS slide.
Arizona has got talent on its roster and Chase Budinger is as good as they come in the Pac-10. Look for the Wildcats to play inspired basketball and pull off the minor upset in this one. But grab the points just in case this is one of those fantastic NCAA finishes and they lose it at the buzzer.
3* ARIZONA
Joel Tyson
West Virginia -2.5 vs Arizona, at Washington, DC
Lay the small number as the West Virginia Mountaineers are set to take on the Arizona Wildcats. No way I can put trust in this Arizona team that is 8-18 ATS over their last 26 Thursday games, and have lost eight of their last 12 overall. Two of the four wins for the Cats were against lowly Oregon State, and Arizona has not put together back-to-back wins since January, as the Mounties have lost back-to-back contest just twice this year. Before being ousted from the Big East tournament the Mountaineers had won four straight, and seven of their last nine prior to their most recent defeat. Wva comes in ranked 2nd nationally in assist to turnover ration and 6th in the country in fewest turnovers. Play the Mountaineers to get the win and cover tonight.
2* WEST VIRGINIA
Bobby Maxwell
UNLV +2 vs. Kent State, at Omaha, Neb.
College hoops winner Wednesday when Utah went down to Utah and got the win and cover just like we said. Today the Big Dance kicks off and we've got a FREE winner coming on UNLV as the Rebels take on Kent State.
How is it UNLV is the higher seed, made it to the Sweet 16 in last year's NCAA tourney and is coming off three games that tested their mettle in the Mountain West Conference event, yet their an underdog in this one? I don't understand it and we're going to cash in on the mistake.
The Rebels destroyed BYU 76-61 in the MWC finals on Saturday, winning as a one-point favorite. This is after surviving a thriller against TCU and a semifinal close win over Utah. UNLV has now won four straight and seven of their last eight overall (5-2-1 ATS).
Kent State won the Mid-American Conference but who'd they beat there? Akron a couple times, a terrible Miami of Ohio team and Toledo? Not exactly BYU, TCU and New Mexico.
Remember the name Wink Adams for UNLV, he is a definite NBA prospect and he will not let the Rebels lose this one. UNLV is 23-8-1 ATS in non-conference action, 8-2 ATS in postseason play, 5-1-1 as a neutral-site underdog and 42-20-3 ATS against teams with a winning record.
Play the Rebels tonight and watch them win this one with defense and timely 3-point shooting.
4* UNLV
Sports Gambling Hotline
Temple +7 vs. MICHIGAN STATE - at Denver, Col.
We bring a 9-4 comp play run into the first day of the Big Dance!
Early action today, and we are interested in taking the points with Temple as they take on Michigan State.
Temple comes into this game brimming with confidence, as the Owls are riding a 7 game win and cover streak into the Pepsi Center. Temple is also making their backers plenty of cash with a spread mark of 19-7 their last 26 games on the season!
We expect the Owls to prove a tough out for Michigan State, as the Spartans were anything but Spartan on the road this year, going just 2-6 straight up their last 8 road games - Big 10 Tournament included! - and State has failed to deliver in the favorite role in 9 of their last 16 when laying the wood.
Michigan State may be able to pull this one out, but we feel the Owls are most definitely going to challenge for the possible upset, so we are very interested in grabbing any points they are giving in this spot.
Play on Temple.
2* TEMPLE
Drew Gordon
Kentucky +6 vs. Marquette at Anaheim, CA
Split my Freebies Wednesday, with winner coming on Valparaiso outright over Washington 72-71, but the loser coming on the 76ers failing to cover at home against the Nuggets 115-113. That brings me to 313-295-6 over my L614 Free Play releases! (Note: 11-2-1 overall run with paid plays, incl. a 3-0 Wednesday Sweep - See my website for more details)!
While many believe the injury to F Patrick Patterson effectively ended the Wildcats season, I disagree. There's no question it changes the Kentcuky offense, but in this specific match up, it won't make as much difference as you think and here's why:
Marquette is guard-heavy team, that depends almost solely on guards McNeal, James, and Mathews. Sure, they've got Lazar Hayward listed as a forward, but he's more of a tweener at 6'6. In other words, despite losing their best frontline player, Kentucky still has the personnel to match up with the Marquette. Joe Crawford and Ramel Bradley are both experienced and extremely talented. Not to mention, sophomore F Perry Stevenson has stepped it up in Patterson's stead (18 points 10 boards against Florida March 9th).
One thing we know for sure about the Wildcats is they can play perimeter defense with the best of 'em, allowing their opponents to shoot just 39% from the floor on the season! Herein lies the problem for the Golden Eagles, as McNeal and James love to shoot the rock, but don't shoot it particularly well, at 45% and just 40% respectively.
Finally, let's talk motivation, as it appears for the first time in a long time, Kentucky is actually being underestimated. They had their struggles early on, but have matured well over the course of the season, going 10-4 ATS over their last 14 overall! Not to mention, they're an outstanding 9-1-1 ATS over their last 11 against the Big East! In the end, expect a razor close contest here, with the Wildcats defense helping them grab the cash in this one!
Take Kentucky plus the points over Marquette in this NCAA Tournament First Round match up.
2* KENTCUKY
Michael Cannon
Oral Roberts vs. Pitt -9, at Denver, CO
Lay the points with Pitt over Oral Roberts in the South Regional.
It's hard to think of a hotter team right now than Pitt.
They won the Big East tournament last week, knocking off ranked opponents Louisville, Marquette and finally Georgetown to grab the crown.
The Panthers won it the hard way, playing four games in four nights in the physical Big East.
Pitt looks like it's peaking at just the right time, and it's no coincidence their jump in play has happened with the return to full health of point guard Levance Fields.
Fields is a smart point guard who runs the half-court set to perfection for the Panthers and I expect him to lead the way to a big win this afternoon.
Oral Roberts brings with it some bad history of Mid-Continent/Summit League teams in the tournament. They have yet to cover in first-round Big Dance action since Southern Utah in 2001.
Pitt has crushed its last two first-round opponents, Wright State last year and Kent State in 2006.
Lay the points as Pitt cruises to the win and cover.
3* PITT
Drew Gordon
Oral Roberts +8' vs. Pittsburgh at Denver, CO
Split my Freebies Wednesday, with winner coming on Valparaiso outright over Washington 72-71, but the loser coming on the 76ers failing to cover at home against the Nuggets 115-113. That brings me to 313-295-6 over my L614 Free Play releases!
While everyone in the country seems to be riding this Panthers team in this afternoon's match up, let me be one of the few to tell you not to sleep on this Oral Roberts team. This is a dangerous match up for Pitt for several reasons, but let's start with their respective styles...
Both teams rely on hard-nosed defense to get the job done, which immediately sends up a red flag, because despite Pitt's red-hot play, they can be coaxed into a slower more methodical pace. Both teams had trouble scoring on the road this season, and with the Golden Eagles defense locking down opponents to the tune of 62 ppg on 39% shooting, I say they can keep this one within the number.
Second, speaking of the Panthers red-hot play, if we know Pitt is playing well, obviously oddsmakers know it too. Therefore, why would you play right into their hands by picking the favorite every uninformed bettor is going to side with? Make no mistake, Pitt will win this game, but its the margin I have real issues with.
Finally, March Mayhem is all about match ups, and this contest is no different. In order to hang with Pittsburgh you need the size to handle their frontcourt, and that's exactly what Oral Roberts has between 6'10 Shawn King (10 ppg, 6 boards/game, 65 swats) 6'8 F Marcus Lewis and 6'9 F Yemi Ogunoye. Young and Blair may be better players, but not by as much as everyone thinks. We haven't even mentioned G Robert Jarvis, who paces the Eagles with 16 ppg... He may be small, but he's dangerous (40% from 3-point).
Bottom line, this is Oral Roberts' "Super Bowl," and with the match ups they have, and the type of lockodown defense they play, look for them to keep this game within the number this afternoon.
Take Oral Roberts plus the points over Pittsburgh in this First Round NCAA Tournament match up.
2* ORAL ROBERTS
Karl Garrett
Texas A&M -2 vs. BYU - at Anaheim, Cal.
The G-Man is feeling strong about the Aggies tonight, as he feels this line is a definite mistake.
This Texas A&M team started the season like gangbusters, only to see a 9-9 close lump them in the middle of the pack in this Big Dance. There is still plenty of experience left of this team from last year's deep run, and coach Mark Turgeon was at the helm of Wichita State's deep run in the Dance a few March's ago.
Have to believe that experience will pay off against a tough BYU team that did close the year with wins in 15 of their final 17 games!
The G-Man feels the rugged Big 12 conference slate that A&M had to fight their way through is going to pay dividends in this spot tonight.
Very cheap price indeed on the Aggies, so lay the short price, and watch as Texas A&M puts in a workman-like 8-point win and cover over the Cougars.
A&M to the second round!
3* TEXAS A&M
Michael Cannon
Texas A&M vs. BYU (+2), at Anaheim, CA
Take the small number with Byu tonight in the West Region over Texas A&M.
I prefer the seasoned Cougars in this matchup over the inconsistent Aggies.
Byu has won 15 of its last 17 games overall while Texas A&M dropped five of its last seven regular season games.
The Cougars have a big advantage in the backcourt and that is imperative in these tournament games. If Byu can continue to shoot well from beyond the arc (where four players average better than 34 percent), then they can pull away in this game.
The Aggies offense averages 16 ppg fewer on the road, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them struggle from the field.
Take Byu as they grab the cash tonight.
3* BYU
Mighty Quinn
Baylor +3
Dave Malinsky 6 unit play
USC
Dave Price
Pitt -8.5
Jeff Alexander
Washington St. -9
Jimmy Boyd
Winthrop O 112.5
ARTHUR RALPH COMP
G. MASON
GAMBLERS DATA COMP
CHI +4.5
JEFFERSONSPORTS
MICHIGAN ST-7
Josh Dean
200* Oral Roberts
100* Bulls
100* Kent St.
100* Belmont
Free Pick: UCLA/MSVS UNDER
DR BOB SPORTS:
5 round 1 Best Bets and all of them happen to be on Thursday.
Purdue (-2 1/2) 3-Stars at -2 1/2 or less, 2-Stars at -3.
USC (-2 1/2) 3-Stars at -3 or less, 2-Stars up to -4.
Washington State (-8 1/2) 2-Stars at -9 or less, 3-Stars at -8 or less.
Michigan State (-6 1/2) 3-Stars at -7 or less, 2-Stars at -7 1/2.
Oral Roberts (+9 1/2) 3-Stars at +8 or more, 2-Stars down to +7.
Possible Best Bet on Xaver (2-Stars at -8 or less).
Below is the Best Bet analysis and I'm still working on writing up the opinions and working on my brackets, but hopefully I'll have that for you by 11:30 am or Noon Pacific.
3 Star Selection
PURDUE (-2 ½) over Baylor
Thursday 11:50 AM Pacific - Rotation 714
Purdue has the youngest team in the NCAA Tournament field, but they also have one of the most talented. Coach Matt Painter brought in 6 talented newcomers this season and those first year players struggled early in the season and often didnt play hard against weaker non-conference teams. However, the Boilermakers upset Louisville in mid-December and started playing up to their enormous potential once conference play started. Purdue beat Wisconsin twice on their way to finishing second in the Big 10 while going 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games. The Boilermakers played their best against the better teams that they faced, going 6-1 ATS and 4-3 straight up in 7 games against fellow NCAA Tourney teams with 2 of their losses being by just 3 points at Clemson and at Michigan State. Baylor has also made an incredible resurgence under coach Scott Drew, but Baylor is just 3-8 straight up and 5-5-1 ATS against other NCAA tourney teams (excluding small conference teams). Baylor did play well away from home and they are 8-2-1 ATS as an underdog this season, but I favor Purdue by 3 ½ points after adjusting each teams for their ability to play better against other good teams. The reason for the play is a 45-11 ATS subset of a 133-58-4 ATS situation that applies to Purdue as long as they are not favored by more than 3 points. Ill take Purdue in a 3-Star Best Bet at -2 ½ points or less and for 2-Stars at -3 points.
3 Star Selection
Usc (-2 ½) over Kansas State
Thursday 04:10 PM Pacific - Rotation 722
This will be billed as a match-up between super freshman O.J. Mayo from USC and Michael Beasley from Kansas State, but the Trojans have a much better supporting cast and their stingy defense (39.1% FG allowed) will make it tough for anyone other than Beasley to score. Kansas State has struggled away from home this season, especially against good teams, as the Wildcats are just 5-8 straight up and 3-9- 1 ATS away from Manhattan, with 4 of those wins coming against mediocre teams Central Florida, Rider, Colorado, and Iowa State (the other was against Oklahoma). Kansas State is just 1-5 straight up and 1-5 ATS away from home against other NCAA tournament teams. USC, meanwhile, plays their best against good teams and the Trojans are underrated now that theyre healthy. The Trojans were without 2nd leading scorer and rebounder Devon Jefferson for 4 games and they were without pointguard Daniel Hackett for most of 5 games (he missed 4 and played just 2 minutes before getting injured in another). USCs rating in the 24 games in which Jefferson and Hackett both played is 2.6 points higher than their overall season rating and my ratings favor the Trojans by 5 ½ points in this game. In addition to the line value, the Trojans are also more likely to bounce back from their conference tournament loss (a spread covering 3 point loss to UCLA) than the Wildcats are. USC is 16-4 ATS after a loss the last two seasons while the Wildcats are just 3-6 ATS this season after a loss, including only 1-5 ATS when not laying 10 points or more (they have a tendency to beat up on bad teams). USC is also 43-23-1 ATS when facing a team with a winning record in 3 seasons under coach Tim Floyd. In addition to the line value and team trends, the Trojans also apply to a very strong 133-58-4 ATS first round situation that is 45-11 ATS at -3 points or less (or dog). Ill take USC in a solid 3-Star Best Bet at -3 points or less and for 2-Stars at -3 ½ or -4 points.
2 Star Selection
**Washington State (-8 ½) over Winthrop
Thursday 04:20 PM Pacific - Rotation 726
I picked Winthrop to upset Notre Dame in last years first round, but the Eagles are not nearly as good as last years team and Washington State is better on both ends of the court. My ratings favor Washington State by 9 ½ points after factoring in what is sure to be a very slow pace and the Cougars apply to a 90-40-3 ATS round 1 situation. Ill take Washington State in a 2-Star Best Bet at - 9 points or less and for 3-Stars at -8 or less.
3 Star Selection
Michigan State (-6 ½) over Temple
Thursday 09:30 AM Pacific - Rotation 728
Ive learned a few things about Tom Izzos Michigan State teams over the years and this is a game that they are likely to cover. Izzos teams has covered the spread an impressive 55% of the time in his 13 seasons, but Michigan State often has trouble with teams that are close in talent or more talented (just 75-85-2 ATS when favored by less than 4 points or as a dog) and the Spartans also arent particularly good laying a big number since Izzos fiery nature doesnt come out as often against weaker teams (46-54 ATS as a favorite of more than 11 points). Izzos teams are also better when hes had ample time to prepare his team (114-78-3 ATS with 3 or more days off) and teams on a roll tend to stop rolling when coming up against the keen strategic mind of Izzo (59% ATS facing a team off a win and cover). This game is in the sweet spot for Michigann State, as Temple is good enough to respect but not good enough to overcome Michigan States fundamentally sound play (like teams with equal or better talent sometimes can) and Izzo has plenty of ammunition to get his team focused for the Owls given that Temple has won 7 straight games. Izzo also has enough time to implement a game plan to combat what the Owls have been doing well of late. Michigan State is 85-31-2 ATS under Izzo when favored from 4 to 11 points, including 62-17-2 ATS against a team coming off a win and 43-11-1 ATS with 3 or more days off to prepare. The Spartans also apply to a 92-33-3 ATS round 1 situation while Temple applies to a negative 8- 30 ATS tourney situation that is based on their recent success. My ratings favor Michigan State by 7 points, which is where the line opened and Ill take Michigan State in a 3-Star Best Bet at -7 points or less and for 2-Stars at -7 ½ points.
3 Star Selection
Oral Roberts (+9 ½) over Pittsburgh
Thursday 12:00 PM Pacific - Rotation 729
Pittsburgh sure played well in the Big East Tournament, recording 3 consecutive upset wins over Louisville, Marquette and Georgetown. However, all that has done has given us line value on the other side and made it tough for Panthers coach Jamie Dixon to find ammunition to motivate his team. Facing Oral Roberts in the NCAA tournament is actually a letdown game for Pitt after last weeks emotional ride and the Panthers have never been good at continuing a short term hot streak under Dixon, going 1-6 ATS in his 5 seasons after winning and covering in 3 or more consecutive games (0-6 ATS as a favorite of 4 points or more). You may recall last season that I went against a similarly hot Oregon team as a 9 point favorite and #3 seed against Miami-Ohio after the Ducks had just won and covered 3 consecutive Pac-10 tournament games. Or, the year before when I went against Iowa after they won and covered 3 straight games to win the Big 10 tourney only to lose straight up as a #3 seed to Northwestern State. Teams that win and cover 3 consecutive conference tournament games are only 9-19 ATS when seeded #3 or worse and favored in their first round NCAA Tournament game and the Panthers apply to a very negative 4-28 ATS first round letdown situation as well as a 45-112-4 ATS situation that works in the regular season and the post-season. Oral Roberts is a pretty good team (I rate them the same as Villanova) that played pretty competitively in road games against other NCAA Tournament teams losing those by an average of 11.7 points to Texas A&M, Arkansas, and Texas (which would translate into 7.6 points on a neutral floor). My ratings favor Pitt by only 7 ½ points in this game and the slow pace that the Panthers play suits Oral Roberts well, as the Golden Eagles play outstanding half-court defense (39.8% FG allowed and limited Texas A&M, Arkansas, Texas, and Oklahoma State to just 40.8% shooting all away from home). I bet against Oral Roberts in the 1st round last year for a Best Bet winner on Washington State, but this season the Eagles are in a very good spot and Ill take Oral Roberts in a 3-Star Best Bet at +8 points or more and for 2-Stars at +7 ½ or +7 points.
Opinion/Possible Best Bet
Xavier (-8 ½) over Georgia
Thursday 09:20 AM Pacific - Rotation 712
Georgias run through the SEC Tournament was certainly incredible given their 4-12 conference record in conference play heading into the tourney and having to win 3 games in 2 days, but the Bulldogs were running on adrenaline those last couple of games and that has likely worn off by now. Teams that are upset winners of their conference tournaments usually dont fair well in their first NCAA Tournament games. Georgia applies to a negative 3-20-1 ATS first round situation that is based on their conference tournament success while Xavier applies to a very good 92-33-3 ATS first round situation. The Musketeers are also 17-8-1 ATS under coach Sean Miller when coming off a game in which they lost straight up and lost to the pointspread, so Xavier should bounce back with a good effort. My ratings favor Xavier by 7 ½ points in this game, but the situation is good enough to give up some line value. Ill lean with Xavier at -8 ½ or -9 points and Ill take Xavier in a 2-Star Best Bet at -8 points and for 3-Stars at -7 ½ or less.
Ted Sevransky
GAME: Temple @ Michigan State
PICK: Temple
REASON FOR PICK: NCAA favorites went 20-10-2 in the first round last year as both the wiseguys and the general public looked to back underdogs. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if the favorites won the majority of first round games ATS again this year, although I wouldn’t expect that type of margin. So, when I recommend any first round underdog, I’ve got to be absolutely convinced that the dog is more than capable of hanging with the big boys.
Tom Izzo has a well deserved reputation as an outstanding tournament coach, but his Spartans have suffered from a lack of confidence and execution away from home all season. Michigan State’s weakness at closing out foes has been on full display in blown second half leads against Ohio State and Wisconsin within the last week, a team that consistently hasn’t been able to get it done away from home during crunch time. Quite simply, this team has major confidence and chemistry issues right now, as fully evidenced by their complete meltdown in the final seven minutes against Wisconsin in the Big 10 Tournament semi-finals, a tournament that the Spartans put enormous energy and focus into winning.
Temple has no such confidence issues after reeling off seven straight wins, including three in the Atlantic-10 tournament to earn their bid the hard way. Leading scorers Deonte Christmas and Mark Tyndale are very difficult to stop, and both have hit numerous big shots during crunch time all year, a big reason why the Owls have won ten games outright as an underdog this year. Temple has been vastly undervalued by the betting marketplace all year, finishing 22-11 ATS, a clear measure of how much this team has improved since their awful start to the season. Expect this game to go right down to the wire – Temple’s confidence and execution in the latter stages of the game gives them a solid shot to pull the outright upset. Take Temple +7.5
Stephen Nover
GAME: Portland State @ Kansas
PICK: Portland State
REASON FOR PICK: The marketplace has acted decisively on this matchup backing Portland State. The line has come down, but not down enough to ignore Portland State.
The Vikings have enough talent and moxie to get the cover here. Portland State has come on to win 14 of its last 15 games. Kansas is a powerhouse, but the Vikings won't be intimidated having gone against some of the finest Pac-10 teams, including UCLA, Washington State and Washington.
There's no pressure on Portland State. A No. 16 seed has never won a first-round NCAA matchup. Kansas, though, has proven to be vulnerable during the opening round. The Jayhawks lost to a No. 14 seed three years ago in the first round and fell to a No. 13 seed in the opening round two
Bryan Leonard Sports
GAME: Belmont @ Duke
PICK: Belmont
The Bruins of Belmont have plenty of experience in the big dance after losing in the first round each of the last two seasons. Both years they ended up losing to a team going to the Final Four. But this years Duke team has too many weaknesses to make it three years running. Belmont specializes in long range shooting which makes them a dangerous underdog. They have beaten Cincinnati and Alabama on the road this year. They bring a 13 game winning streak into action on Thursday and despite being knocked out in the first round each of the last two years they have the confidence that they can compete.
Duke isn't dominant defensively allowing 46.8% shooting from 2 point range. The Blue Devils have lost their last 3 games when facing a team who made this years Big Dance. Duke hasn't fared well in the NCAA Tournament as a favorite posting a 1-7 spread mark. In a down year for the ACC the Blue Devils are a good team, just not a great team. They will win this game but it will be more of a battle than most expect.
PLAY BELMONT
The PREZ
GAME: Baylor @ Purdue
PICK: Baylor
REASON FOR PICK: Purdue had won 11 in a row before losing three of its last six. Their Thursday opponent, Baylor, lost eight of its last 13, including an ugly Big 12 tourney loss to Colorado. However, even in the Bears loss to the Buffs, they showed spirit and tournament savvy coming back from a 15-point deficit to take the game into overtime. The Boilermakers don’t have the guards to matchup with Baylor, and their youth will work against them in today’s game. Four of the team’s top six contributors are freshmen.
Baylor’s deep and experienced backcourt will prove to be too tough for Purdue. Starter Curtis Jerrells is a dynamo on the court. The Bears bench is led by sharp-shooters LaceDarius Dunn and Tweety Carter.
The only threat in the paint for Baylor is Kevin Rogers, who ranked third in the conference this season with 12 double-doubles. The strength of Bears squad is pressure defense and three-point shooting. The team made 267 shots from beyond the arc, six short of the team record set in 2001-2002. Today’s tip-off is special for a team that just four-to-five years ago was in dire straights, and this year’s invitation to the NCAA Tournament is their first in 20 seasons.
The Bears pressure defense allowed too many easy points this year, but against a young Purdue squad they figure to be more than effective.
Purdue’s E'Twaun Moore, didn’t receive the Freshman accolades of Kansas State's Michael Beasley or USC’s O.J. Mayo , but he led the team in scoring (12.7 points) and minutes played (30.1). The difference between Purdue’s youth, versus strong guard play of Baylor, is the best reason for an investment in this Thursday first-round contest, but the icing are the injuries to Chris Kramer and Keaton Grant, who are both suffering from a variety of ailments.
Today’s battle isn’t the classic matchup of #5 seed vs. #12 seed, but the #6 versus #11 figures to be lopsided by game’s end. Baylor is well coached and has plenty of motivation coming into today’s battle. The Bears were considered the last team in the tournament and Coach Scott Drew will use the slight as bulletin board material in his pre-game talk to the team.
Baylor is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games as an underdog, and the the troupe is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 neutral site games. Purdue is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games as a favorite and enter today’s first-round contest 0-4 ATS in the squad's last 4 non-conference games.
Look for Baylor to pour it on early and often and rattle the young roster of Boilermakers, and show just how strong the Big 12 conference is, and how underachieving the Big 10 will be this March.
The Thursday afternoon tip-off calls for an action play on Baylor over Purdue.
BobBalfe
Kansas State +3.5 over USC
These teams are mirror images of each other except USC is very young. Both teams have great freshman stars. Beasley is amazing and will carry this team to at least one win before he heads up to the NBA. USC should turn the ball over alot due to inexperience. This might just be the highest seed to win outright today.
JeffAlexander
1 Unit on Washington State -9
Winthrop doesn’t have the team it had last season when it upset Notre Dame in the first round. This is a Winthrop team which struggles to score and they’ll be facing the best defensive team in the country (in my opinion) in Washington State . At 12-4, Washington State has been sensational on the road this season. The Cougars are 10-6 ATS in those games. On the other side of things, Winthrop is just a 9-8 road team this year. Plays on Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points ( WASHINGTON ST ) - after 1 or more consecutive losses, when seeded 4 or higher in the NCAA tournament are 22-4 ATS since 1997. We’ll take the Cougars.