Locksmith Sports
1 Unit on Winthrop/Washington State OVER 112.5
While these are two defensive teams, oddsmakers have come down way too low on the line to give us an easy opportunity with an OVER play here. The Over is 6-1 in Cougars last 7 games following an ATS loss, 4-1 in Cougars last 5 neutral site games, and 5-2 in Cougars last 7 neutral site games as a favorite. The Cougars have gone OVER the total in their last 3 games heading into the Tourney. Washington State's offense showed the ability to score much better later in the season and that will put this one over a very small number. Bet the OVER here ladies and gents.
Tom Scott
Baylor Bears at Purdue Boilermakers
The euphoria seen in the Baylor locker room when the Bears were announced as the final team in the NCAA tourney field masks the disappointing finish. Baylor started the season like a house afire with 16 wins in its first 18 games, the streak culminated by an emotionally draining five overtime win at neighborhood rival, Texas A&M. Since then, though, the Bears have flattened out considerably winning just five of their last 13 and losing badly to league doormat Colorado in the conference tournament. It was Baylor's defense that disappeared. Before that game against the Aggies, the Bears were allowing 67 points per game. Since that win over A&M, Baylor is coughing up 82 points per game. Purdue has been playing stellar defense all season, allowing only 61 points per game. There's the difference. Both teams can score but Purdue is the one who can get a stop now and then.Good luck, as always...Tom Scott.
Play on: Purdue
Steve Merril
George Mason vs. Notre Dame
Play: Notre Dame
George Mason made a memorable run two years ago to the Final Four as a #11 seed, but this year’s squad is not as talented. George Mason earned an at-large bid in 2006, but that was not the case this year as the Patriots had to win the CAA tournament to earn the automatic qualifier. Their opponent in the finals, William & Mary, upset the #1 seed Va Commonwealth as a 12-point underdog in the semi-finals, so George Mason was able to avoid the best team in the conference (VCU). The Patriots got a much easier game versus a tired W&M squad playing their fourth game in four days. Notre Dame will be extremely focused for this game after being upset in the first round last year versus Winthrop. That was a young Notre Dame squad, with limited postseason experience, but this year’s team is a veteran unit. The Irish will also gain focus and motivation after losing 89-79 versus Marquette in the Big East tournament last week. Quality teams usually bounce back in the first round of the NCAA Tournament after a SU loss, and Notre Dame fits a solid 65% angle based on that premise tonight.
Matt Fargo
Arizona vs. West Virginia
Play: Arizona
The Wildcats were hit with injuries all season long but now they are a healthy team and one that could be a very tough out. An underachieving team in the past, they are now the underdogs and that can make a world of difference. The Wildcats will make their 24th-straight NCAA tournament, the longest streak in the nation, but, as a No. 10, it's the lowest they've ever been seeded. I think that is the best thing that could have happened and if you look at the other No. 10 seeds, the Wildcats are the best of the bunch.
West Virginia made a small run in the Big East Tournament and that has gotten it some attention from the public. According to some sportsbook action, this is one of the biggest bet games thus far and close to 2/3 of those wagers are on the Mountaineers. They do possess a great player in Joe Alexander who has shown he can take a game over himself but top to bottom, they are at a huge disadvantage. West Virginia went just 3-8 against the nation’s top 50 this season.
Watching ESPN or any other national broadcast and you see debates about whether Arizona even belongs here. I can guarantee you this team does despite a mediocre 18-14 record including a losing mark in the Pac Ten. The schedule was brutal as it ranked the hardest in the country. The Wildcats went 4-1 against teams outside the top 25 but still within the top 50 and that is where the Mountaineers fall. Motivation is something big this time of year and Arizona has it.
Arizona has better athletes and when Jerryd Bayless and Nic Wise were healthy and combined with Chase Budinger, the Wildcats were a proficient scoring team. Wise and Bayless have been huge contributors and Arizona missed them when they weren’t playing, going 2-5 without Wise and 1-3 without Bayless. Wise could be a big factor and one that is hardly being talked about, as it's unclear whether the Mountaineers have anybody athletic enough to guard him.
West Virginia has had a knack of being able to force a lot of turnovers but Arizona only averages 12.1 tpg, which is going to be a big plus. The Mountaineers has a 1.40 assist/turnover ratio which is down from the past two years showing what sort of team it was in the past. Arizona has a ratio of 1.28 so it is not far behind at all. The Wildcats also are hitting 74.7 from the free throw line this season which is 21st in the nation and we all know how important that is. Arizona advances on Thursday. Play Arizona Wildcats 1 Unit
Dave Cokin
Cornell vs. Stanford 5PM ET
Play: Cornell +14.5
Stanford figures to win their opening round game with Cornell, but the Big Red may be better than most observers think. They ran roughshod over the entire Ivy League, and I remember how well they played at Duke earlier this year. This is not an Ivy League pushover and Stanford would be wise not to overlook them. In the end, the Cardinal have too much inside strength and should win, but I don't see the game as a blowout. Cornell plus the points.
Great Lakes Sports
Winthrop vs Washington State
Play on: Washington State Cougars
The Cougars are 18-13 ATS in non-conference games the last three years, 7-3 ATS when playing with five or six days of rest the last three years.
The Cougars are also 35-30 ATS when playing a team with a winning record the last three years, and are 6-4 ATS in non conference games this year. We look for the Washington State Cougars to grab the ATS Win & cover tonight.
Brian Hansen
Game: Oral Roberts at Pittsburgh
Prediction: Oral Roberts
Reason: Pittsburgh played great throughout their big run in the Big East Tournament but I look for Oral Roberts to give them all they can handle in this one. Oral Roberts has great guard play and they specialize in three point shooting. This should cause problems for a Pittsburgh team that struggled at times this season on the defensive end. Oral Roberts has played well previously against good competition and I look for them to keep this one close down to the wire as they earn the cover and possible outright upset against a Pittsburgh team that could get caught looking ahead to a second round game with Michigan State. Play on Oral Roberts!
Big Al Mcmordie
Game: San Antonio Spurs at Chicago Bulls
Prediction: San Antonio Spurs
Reason: At 8:05 pm, our member selection is on the San Antonio Spurs minus the points over Chicago. The key, here, is that the Spurs (the NBA's oldest team) have had the last two days off following their loss to the Celtics. And, as an aging team, the Spurs have responded very well the last few seasons with at least two days of rest. Coach Gregg Popovich hasn't pressed the Panic Button yet (even though the Spurs have dropped six of seven (and have failed to cover their last nine)), and is returning the team to its old starting lineup of Duncan, Parker, Bowen, Oberto and Finley, with Ginobili coming off the bench. Off nine straight ATS losses, I expect San Antonio to come out with a lot of fire in its belly tonight, and to get a relatively easy win. Lay the points.
Dave Price
NCAAB Oral Roberts vs. Pittsburgh
Take Pittsburgh Panthers
1 Unit on Pitt -8.5 I like the Pitt Panthers to keep right on rolling in round one of the Big Dance, riding the momentum they created by winning the Big East title. Pitt comes in having won 5 straight games SU and 4 of its last 5 ATS. Oral Roberts has been relying on its defense this season after losing last season's top two scorers. Oral is going to have to be able to score against Pitt to keep this one close and I just don't see enough fire power on the roster. Pitt was a Sweet 16 team a season ago and is playing its best ball of the year right now. Bet Pitt as the Panthers advance to round two with ease.
LT's Lock
Kansas St. +3'
THE SPORTS REPORTER
Pepsi Center, Denver, CO
(5) NOTRE DAME vs. (12) GEORGE MASON -- George Mason won their
conference tournament with defense, allowing only 51 points per game. Mike Brey’s
Irish squad is offensively balanced and won’t be as easily subdued. Notre Dame will
look to push the pace of the game to get it in the 70’s. Look for Brey to focus on getting the rock to his rock ‘ big man Luke Harangody. The Patriots rely heavily on center Will Thomas for points, but if he’s battling the Big East player of the year on the defensive end, he may not be as effective scoring the ball. Look for a close ball game through the half, but with Notre Dame’s proficiency behind the arc and Harangody’s bulk in the frontcourt, George Mason will be forced to play catch-up ‘ and that’s not their game.NOTRE DAME, 73-64.
(4) WASHINGON ST. vs. (13) WINTHROP -- Both teams play floor-slapping
defense and want to limit their opponent’s possessions. Problem for Winthrop is
they aren’t as efficient offensively as Washington State and they shoot only 60% from the foul line. The Cougars tend to take advantage of most scoring opportunities using a balanced approach that spreads out the points. This Tony Bennett may not be able to sing, but he can coach. Oh yeah ‘ he also has the better athletes here. If the Eagles are not at the top of their offensive game, they will die a slow death at the hands of their Pac-10 foe. WASHINGTON ST., 59-48.
(6) MARQUETTE vs. (11) KENTUCKY -- Two tradition-rich programs who
roll into California with as many questions as answers. After an 11-1 start (with a narrow home loss to Duke the lone blemish), Marquette has endured sustained difficulties against quality Big East foes on the road, though they handled Notre Dame well enough in the tournament. Kentucky endured growing pains as Billy Gillispie fiddled with combinations early ‘ then settled down to rack up a regular-season 12-4 SEC mark before falling to Georgia. The loss of F Patrick Patterson makes eager embrace of the ‘Cats difficult, with Joe Crawford and turnover-prone Ramel Bradley left to pick up the scoring. Dominic James has settled into his best shooting groove as Marquette’s most reliable scorer’ and his ball control is excellent. Tough call at the number, but suspect ‘Cats vulnerable to greater downside potential than are the favorites from Wisconsin. MARQUETTE,
68-62.
(3) STANFORD vs. (14) CORNELL -- This is where we came in! Cardinal
opened the season by drilling out-manned Harvard by 55 and proceed to prevail over
underachieving Yale by eleven, eleven days later. Big Red’s the cream of the Ivys, rolling through the Ancient Eight undefeated, on merit, laying waste to two decades of domination by Princeton and Penn. But the Ivy ATS record in the Dance has deteriorated markedly in recent years, and even the casual viewer can discern the most-recent, spreading talent gap vis a vis genuine national power teams ‘ of which the Cardinal’s certainly one. Cornell is the best free-throw shooting team in the country, but that skill provides scant comfort against tall Trees Brook and Robin Lopez, Lawrence Hill and Fred Washington, who should lay waste to the likes of 6’6’ Ryan Wittman on the boards. Stan doesn’t have a history of sadistic beatings, but spread fails to reflect prevailing matchup realities. STANFORD, 81, CORNELL 57.
1) KANSAS vs. (16) PORTLAND STATE -- Kansas is bigger, stronger
and faster ‘ and, oh yeah ‘ better. The Jayhawks will enjoy the pace, as Portland St.
likes to push the ball. They have only two guys who play decent minutes that are taller than 6’8’ and their best player is 5’6’ point guard Dominguez. Not exactly Big 12 caliber.Bill Self’s frontcourt of Jackson, Arthur, and Kahn will have a field day in the
paint as they move on to Saturday. KANSAS, 79-55.
( UNLV vs. (9) KENT STATE -- On paper ‘ these teams look very similar.
We’ll see how that translates to the court. Both teams max out height-wise at the 6’8
level and rely on athleticism to play hard-nosed defense. Kent St. guard Mincy may
be the best on-ball defender in the country and he’ll get a crack at the Rebel’s Wink
Adams, who lit up BYU in the Mountain West tournament final. He has the ability to
disrupt a team’s offensive flow. If UNLV can keep Kent St. off of the offensive glass
(no easy chore) ‘ they have a great shot. If Kent St. can keep the turnovers to a minimum ‘ the pendulum swings to the MAC champ. The Golden Flashes have been playing really well of late, so we’ll give them the slight edge. KENT STATE, 64-62.
(6) USC vs. (11) KANSAS STATE -- Our hopes fulfilled, we get a legitimate
shot at the ego-swollen Wildcats, at a competitive price. Even the lesser lights of the
Big XII eventually figured out that to slow the almighty Michael Beasley and his frosh
running mate, Bill Walker, you overplayed ‘em, and dared the other Little Manhattans
to shoot. Voila! Dominant core of Tim Floyd’s team are all frosh/sophs as well, but
O. J. Mayo has matured in a big hurry, and with a healthy Daniel Hackett, Trojans play beyond their years. And defensively, Taj Gibson is instrumental in foes shooting below 39% from the field. This is a team game, and K-State’s infant backcourt is likely to implode, under the pressure. Ballgame! USC, 74-63.
(3) WISCONSIN vs. (14) CAL-STATE FULLERTON -- Bo Ryan’s
Badgers have long been renowned for not beating themselves, and don’t anticipate
an implosion in the opener. Fullerton shot the lights out in winning the Big West tourney in what devolved into an easy path to the crown. They lost to familiar conference foes on the road by small margins (3, to UCSB; 6, to St. Mary’s) but got drilled by 26 by the ‘Cats of Tucson. They’ll try to run, and ex-Washington Stater Josh Akognon is a stone-cold shooter, but Badgers are solid, and Brian Butch has evolved into something special. So long as Trevon Hughes stays healthy, this opponent’s controllable,though wouldn’t risk my life on Wisky surviving the weekend. WISCONSIN, 75-65
(1) UCLA vs. (16) MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ST. -- Those Bruin injuries
should be concerning to the Westwood faithful, but it won’t matter here. The Delta
Devils shoot right around 40% from the field and give up closer to 50%. Not a good
ratio ‘ but hey ‘ they made the tournament so what do they care. Ben Howland will
rest Kevin Love, and his other starters for that matter, as much as possible. His team
is laying 30+, so if the southerners get to 40 they may cover. That said ‘ we won’t
touch it. UCLA, 70-39.
( BYU vs. (9) TEXAS A&M -- The Cougars are a strong club that nobody
is talking about. Perfect. The three-headed monster of Cummard/Plaisted/Tavernari
account for 45 points per contest and fuel the Cougars. The Aggies like to play tough
defense but it won’t be easy to defend BYU. The Cougars scorers have size and skill,
and can hit from inside and out. A&M must keep the game close due to their offensive issues. They have only two kids averaging double digits and the leading scorer is Carter at 12 per game. The Cougars are keeping opponents below the 40% shooting mark on the season, so scoring could be as dry as the Sahara for A&M. Close game early, with BYU pulling away in the final 10. BYU, 69-57.
(6) PURDUE vs. (11) BAYLOR -- A pair of feel-good stories out of power
conferences, leaning to the dog whose program has risen from the ultimate depths,
emerging from the deeper conference. This year’s Bears have responded gamely to
bad losses, and a one-and-done performance against Colorado in the Big XII tournament qualifies as a bad loss. So we anticipate guards Curtis Jerrells and Lace Darius Dunn will rebound with fire in their eyes. Boilers are a resourceful team which has largely-camouflaged backcourt deficiencies all season, but that’s a challenging situation for a Madness favorite. Bears should win turnover battle, and the game. BAYLOR,
71-70.
(3) XAVIER vs. (14) GEORGIA -- Bulldogs’ miracle run through the SEC
tournament structure has salvaged Dennis Felton’s job. Rendered shorthanded with
injuries and personal considerations through much of the season, UGA surprised by
turning on their tourney jets, winding up with three wins in two days (including that
improbable, storm-induced Saturday doubleheader). It’s a tribute to Felton that Billy Humphrey, Terrance Woodbury and the rest of the Dawgs responded so strongly to the pressure. But now, they’re facing a seasoned Dance regular who essentially dominated the lion’s share of their A-10 schedule and was good enough to beat Kent State, UMass, Charlotte and Rhode Island on the road. The health of G Drew Lavender is a concern, which prevents a step-out, but fully expect X to advance behind Josh Duncan and friends. XAVIER, 69-61.
7) WEST VIRGINIA vs. (10) ARIZONA -- Lame-duck Cats coach Kevin
O’Neil likes to just roll the ball out and let his kids play. They look great in pick-up
games, but rarely put together a solid 40 minutes straight. Point guard Nic Wise is
back to form after missing most of the season with an injury ‘ that helps. Question is
not whether Wise, Bayless, Budinger and crew can score ‘ but it’s whether they can
play defense and rebound for a full game. If they can’t, budding Mountaineer star Joe
Alexander (27 ppg in last 6) will eat their breakfast, lunch, and dinner. Alexander’s
team does not defend the 3 well, so if the B-Boys from ‘Zona can get hot, they can
pull the mild upset. Talent is there. Execution is not. WEST VIRGINIA, 74-69.
(2) DUKE vs. (15) BELMONT -- Coach K would love to see a similar match
up for the next three weeks ‘ small team, weak on the boards, all offense, no
defense. Sorry coach ‘ you can play Belmont only once. Duke will get their fair share
of open 3’s in this one. They’ve hit 10-plus 3-pointers 15 times this season and they’ll
likely push the total to 16. Duke implemented a new substitution pattern in the ACC
tourney to rest players, so don’t look for the Dukie starters to log big minutes. This
will be a track meet without the photo finish. DUKE, 90-68.
(7) WEST VIRGINIA vs. (10) ARIZONA -- Lame-duck Cats coach Kevin
O’Neil likes to just roll the ball out and let his kids play. They look great in pick-up
games, but rarely put together a solid 40 minutes straight. Point guard Nic Wise is
back to form after missing most of the season with an injury ‘ that helps. Question is
not whether Wise, Bayless, Budinger and crew can score ‘ but it’s whether they can
play defense and rebound for a full game. If they can’t, budding Mountaineer star Joe
Alexander (27 ppg in last 6) will eat their breakfast, lunch, and dinner. Alexander’s
team does not defend the 3 well, so if the B-Boys from ‘Zona can get hot, they can
pull the mild upset. Talent is there. Execution is not. WEST VIRGINIA, 74-69.
(2) DUKE vs. (15) BELMONT -- Coach K would love to see a similar match
up for the next three weeks ‘ small team, weak on the boards, all offense, no
defense. Sorry coach ‘ you can play Belmont only once. Duke will get their fair share
of open 3’s in this one. They’ve hit 10-plus 3-pointers 15 times this season and they’ll
likely push the total to 16. Duke implemented a new substitution pattern in the ACC
tourney to rest players, so don’t look for the Dukie starters to log big minutes. This
will be a track meet without the photo finish. DUKE, 90-68.
NBA
BEST BET
BOSTON over *DALLAS by 7
The Celtics play the fourth game of their five-game road trip against the Dallas Mavericks, a team desperately trying to find their identity before the playoffs commence. The results since their massive trade for Jason Kidd have been mixed, with doses of terrifying, as the Mavericks have managed to beat every non-playoff team they’ve faced while succumbing to those squads they may match up against during the more important second season. Boston has not had such issues, but spent this week playing Texas’ other two teams ‘ now they’ll try to knock off the Mavericks in Dallas. Dirk Nowitzki and company have improved their play with Jason Kidd, but have yet to prove they can hang with the real big boys ‘ indeed, they had failed to do so before Kidd’s arrival. Look at this game as an opportunity to take the Celtics with a relatively small spread. BOSTON 97-90
RECOMMENDED
*UTAH over L.A. LAKERS by 8
The Lakers received a scare when Pau Gasol injured his ankle last Friday ‘ luckily, Gasol is only expected to miss a week to ten days, and should be ready for the playoffs. With the tenuous status of the injured Andrew Bynum, not having Gasol would torpedo the hopes of a team who has so dramatically improved their play. While the long term isn’t so bleak, Gasol is widely expected to miss this entire week at the least, and the Lakers will be facing a rested Utah squad that has the bulk and size to bully around the Lakers in the paint. With Ronny Turiaf andLamar Odom expected to receive the majority of the frontcourt minutes, the Lakers should prove susceptible to the power basketball stylings that Jerry Sloan prefers. Being on national television should elicit a strong effort from both squads, but this might be one of those games where Kobe jacks up 30+ shots to poor results while superior team play takes down the purple and gold. UTAH 115-107
Maddux Sports
Arizona +2
Jack Clayton
Jazz
Lenny Del Genio
Boston at Dallas
Big non-conference showdown here, but the Celtics are in the midst of a simply brutal scheduling stretch. This is their fourth road game in six nights and the previous two were in San Antonio and Houston. Like Chris Rock said in the movie Head of State, ?That Ain?t Right!? They did upset the Spurs Monday Night, coming all the way back from down 22, to win by two points as 3.5-point underdogs. We were lucky enough to be on the Celtics that night, but that probably does not leave much in the tank for Houston on Tuesday. They do get a night off before completing the Texas Triangle, but let?s face it, by Thursday, they?ll be ?dead team walking.? After losing five of its first nine with Jason Kidd in the lineup, many began to question Mark Cuban?s last-second blockbuster deal to bring in the high priced point guard. However, all Dallas needed was some ?Eastern cooking.? The Mavs crushed five straight Eastern Conference clubs, all by double-digits, from 3/8 to 3/16 and have a big date themselves with the banged up Lakers Tuesday Night. Remember, Dallas has won 29 of its first 33 home games and figures to be a very slight home favorite in this one. Go with the home team playing against a road weary visitor.
Play on Dallas
Scott Spreitzer
Kent State vs UNLV
The Mountain West Conference Coach of the Year, Lon Kruger is a master of fundamentals. The Rebels lack height and shoot just 42% from the field with a lacking inside game, so they have become a fierce defensive team that holds the opposition to 39% shooting. The Rebels average over 8 steals per game. The guard-oriented lineup is led by junior Jo'Van 'Wink' Adams (15.9 PPG). 6-5 senior Curtis Terry stepped in for departed Kevin Kruger (the coach's son) and leads the team in assists (5.1 APG). Rene Rougeau adds backcourt depth, while up front 6-7 junior Joe Darger (12 PPG, 5 RPG) and 6-8, 240-pound Matt Shaw work the glass. UNLV did struggle when stepping up in non-conference opposition, losing 52-49 to Arizona and a 68-48 loss to Louisville. They will struggle against teams with strong frontcourts. As you can tell by those finals, the Rebels will control the tempo on most occasions, whether they win or lose. The Kent State Golden Flashes are another powerful defensive team, allowing 62 points and 42% shooting. The strength of this team is in the frontcourt with 6-7 senior Mike Scott (13 ppg, 6.6 rpg) and 6-8 senior Haminn Quaintance (10 PPG, 7.7 RPG). Scott and Quaintance both rank top 10 among MAC rebounders, combining for over 14 boards a game. Sophomore guard Rodriguez Sherman was on the MAC All-Freshman Team last season and is a strong defensive player. He gets steals and is usually called on to guard the opposing team's top perimeter scoring threat. After going 17-11 under the total last season with that tough defense, Kent started 9-4 under this year.
As you can tell, I'm looking for a slow-tempo, defensive gem. Both coaching staffs and squads expect strong defensive intensity on every possession. That won't change a bit in this one. Look for Kent & UNLV to finish UNDER the posted total.
Play UNDER
Jim Feist
San Antonio hasn’t been a shut-down defensive team of late that we are used to, allowing over 100 points in 4 of the last 7 games. That’s remarkable when you realize for the season they are allowing just 91 ppg. They take on a Chicago team that is more offensive-minded since dumping Ben Wallace. The Bulls have scored over 100 in 6 of the last 8 and are riding a 6-1-1 run over the total.
Play the Spurs/Bulls over the total
Portland had a great run early in the season, surprising for such a young team, but then cooled off. Well now this young team is offering value again, led by star guard Brandon Roy and fiery coach Nate McMillan. Portland is 4-0 Su/ATS the last 4 games as a favorite, and they are rested for this game. They take on an LA Clipper team that has packed in the season, on a 2-12 SU, 3-11 ATS run. The Blazers have sold out 19 games in a row at home and can give that crowd a blowout win over a very bad team.
Play the Blazers
Net Prophet
NHL
Detroit/Nashville OVER 5' +110
CBB
NCAA
Arizona +2 over West Virginia
Xavier -8' over Georgia
Baylor +3 over Purdue
Temple +7 over Michigan State
Oral Roberts +8' over Pitt