STRIKE POINT SPORTS
3-Unit Play.Take Temple +7.5 over Michigan State
More recently we have seen the Spartans rely way too much on Drew Neitzel, and if he isn't scoring, they are in trouble. And the way Temple can get after it on defense, the Owls have what it takes to advance. Temple has a duo of big time scorers in Dionte Christmas and Mark Tyndale, and they can bring fits all game long to the Spartan defense. This game will be a halfcourt game, and as much as Michigan State likes to control tempo, I think it favors the Owls even more. The number will be good here, and don't be suprised if Temple takes it as the No. 12 seed.
3-Unit Play. Take Baylor +3 over Purdue
The Boilermakers' tough defense might look good when they face bad Big Ten offenses, but Purdue will run into trouble against a high tempo Bears offense. Baylor has stellar guard play, and they'll trump over the young freshman from Purdue in this one. Curtiss Jerrells is a stud, while others like LaDarius Dunn and Tweety Carter add depth and a good range of scorers from three point range. Here's an upset, as the No. 11 seed moves forward to the second round.
2-Unit Play.Take Kent State -2 over UNLV
Here's a match-up where the Golden Flashes' athletic starting five can really get after a UNLV team that relies way too much on the three point shot. This Rebels team has overachieved, with a majority of their starters from last year's Sweet 16 team gone. Kent State has a super point guard in Al Fisher and a trio of big time athletes in Hamin Quaintance, Michael Scott and Chris Singletary. The Flashes have covered eight of their last ten games coming into the NCAA Tournament, and they'll score the win in this 8/9 match-up.
2-Unit Play.Take Oral Roberts +8.5 over Pittsburgh
This game in my eyes has a lot of comparison to last year's first round match-up between Oregon and Miami (OH). The Ducks came into the tournament as one of the hottest teams in the country after blowing through the Pac-10 tourney, however the Redhawks kept it close all game long and had a chance to win. That's exactly what Pitt just did in the Big East tournament, however ORU plays a very steady and strong halfcourt style like Miami did, and that can be beneficial to the Golden Eagles. Oral Roberts has the offensive balance I look for, with shooters Moses Ehambe and Robert Jarvis on the outside, as well as a solid frontcourt with Robert King and Marcus Lewis. Five players average at least nine points for Oral Roberts, and while the majority is jumping on the Pittsburgh bandwagon, the Summit league champ will surprise everyone with a big time effort and keep it the score a one or two possession game either way.
3-Unit Play.Take Arizona +2 over West Virginia
Fully healthy, this Wildcats team is very dangerous. Now having Nick Wise back, Arizona boasts one of the best backcourt trios in the tourney, along with Chase Budinger and Jerryd Bayless. You throw sophomore center Jordan Hill into the mix and this team can find itself in the second weekend of the Big Dance. And I think the West Virginia team we saw against Georgetown in the Big East tourney was more like them, rather than against UConn. I like the combination of shooters and slashers that 'Zona has on the wing. That will be the difference here, as the killer B's in Bayless and Budinger will be too much.
Teddy Covers
Big Dance Trifecta
Xavier
USC
Wash St.
Xavier is a legitimate Top 10 team, vastly undervalued by both the betting marketplace and the general public. They’ve proven their mettle against major conference schools, beating Indiana by 15, Kansas State by 26 and Virginia by 38. While the Atlantic-10 is not comparable to a major conference at the bottom, there were seven 20 win teams at the top – the Musketeers most assuredly have been tested repeatedly throughout the course of their season, and they passed the vast majority of those tests.
Yet, even with a #3 seed and a current ranking of 12th in the nation, Xavier continues to search for respect. Senior guard Stanley Burrell, the A-10 defensive player of the year, prior to Xavier’s first round game in the A-10 tournament last week: “We went 14-2, top 10 in the nation… I'm sick of people overlooking us. I'm sick of us being labeled as a mid-major; we don't get no respect, man.” This is an outstanding team with a chip on their shoulder, exactly the type of squad worthy of support in Round 1 against a major conference foe.
Georgia got incredibly hot in the SEC tournament, winning four games in four days against a relatively weak field. Do not expect that momentum to carry over to Thursday’s early start game. The Bulldogs are a #14 seed for a reason, finishing 4-12 in that watered down SEC during the regular season, winning just twice on the road (at Hawaii and at Auburn, a pair of sub .500 clubs). The Musketeers are the better offensive team, the better defensive team, the better free throw shooting team, the better rebounding team, the deeper team – you name the stat, and Xavier is the better team. Expect a blowout.
Of all the teams seeded fourth or higher, USC has the most upside. In fact, a quick check of the future board at any Las Vegas sportsbook will show you the respect afforded to the Trojans, as their price to win it all is far lower than ANY comparably seeded squad. If you’re looking for a Final Four sleeper, look no further than Tim Floyd’s Trojans.
USC has consistently stepped up their level of play for ‘big games’. They beat UCLA at Pauley Pavilion earlier in the year, and took the Bruins right to the wire in the PAC-10 tournament. They took Kansas right to the wire as well, in a four point loss. They took Memphis to overtime, holding the Tigers to their second lowest point total of the season despite the extra five minutes of play. This is, quite simply, an outstanding defensive team, and the Taj Gibson/Michael Beasley matchup is one that USC should win. Tim Floyd’s defensive coaching prowess cannot be underestimated.
Other than Beasley and Bill Walker, Kansas State really doesn’t have much else. The Wildcats went 3-7 on the highway this year, and got bounced out of the first round of the Big 12 tournament in Kansas City. Narrow that down to games against NCAA tournament teams and the Wildcats were a woeful 1-6 SU and ATS away from home. They have weaker offensive, defensive and rebounding numbers compared to USC, and rookie head coach Frank Martin is unlikely to devise a gameplan to negate those Trojan edges. There truly is a class difference between these two teams that is not accurately reflected in this pointspread.
In each of the last two years, Washington State has absolutely dominated their non-conference opposition. The Cougars reeled off 14 consecutive victories to start off this season, 9-4 ATS during that run. That included SU and ATS road victories at NCAA tournament bound teams Gonzaga, Baylor and Boise State, not to mention a 15 point win at USC on the opening weekend of PAC-10 play. Last year, the Cougars went 11-1 in early season non-conference action, and started the season by covering ten of their first fifteen lined games.
Tony Bennett’s team runs an extraordinarily difficult offensive system to defend, particularly for opponents who haven’t seen it before. That’s why their SU and ATS results tend to deteriorate down the stretch of the PAC-10 campaign – the other PAC-10 schools have seen it before, and they can prepare for it much better the second time around. A team like Winthrop has no such advantage.
Washington State beat Oral Roberts by 16 in their opening round game last year (laying a similar price to what they are laying this year) before losing in OT to hot shooting Vanderbilt in Round 2. There’s little reason to think that the Cougars won’t have similar success early on in this year’s Big Dance. The Big South did not have a good year as a conference, and Winthrop lost their top three players and their head coach from the team that upset Notre Dame in the first round in 2007. We saw the Eagles lose by 17 at NCAA tournament bound West Virginia, lose by 13 in a non-competitive effort at home on Bracket Buster weekend to NCAA tournament bound Davidson and lose by 8 to Baylor in the Paradise Jam tournament back in November. Mount St Mary’s, the #16 seed in the play-in game, beat Winthrop! Expect Washington State to have little trouble pulling away from this squad, particularly considering the Eagles inability to hit free throws (under 60% for the season).
Rocco Vincintore Guaranteed Selections
1000* FIRST ROUND NCAA DOG WINNER
Oral Roberts +8.5
The Lock Line
Xavier
Oral Roberts
Arizona
Root
Chairman - Wintrhop
Millionaire - Michigan St
Money Maker - Oral Roberts
Insider's Circle - Arizona
No Limit - Byu
Billionaire - Xavier
Perfect Play - Kansas St
Keith Martin Hammer
WashSt/Winthrop over
Wunderdog NCAA
Game: Portland State vs. Kansas (12:25 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 145.5 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Game: Temple vs. Michigan State (12:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Temple +7.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Game: U N L V vs. Kent State (2:55 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Kent State -2 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Game: Oral Roberts vs. Pittsburgh (3:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Oral Roberts +8.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Game: Winthrop vs. Washington State (7:20 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 112 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Game: B Y U vs. Texas A & M (7:25 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Texas A & M -1 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Game: Mississippi Valley State vs. U C L A (9:55 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Game Total UNDER 123.5 -110 (risk 4 to win 3.6)
Stu Feiner
Two 5000 Dime Bankroll Builders
TWO 5000 DIME TOURNAMENT
BANKROLL BUILDERS
Baylor +3 over Purdue
Temple +7.5 Michigan State
also
TWO 2000 DIME TOURNAMENT
BANKROLL BUILDERS
Arizona +2.5 over West Virginia
Notre Dame -6.5 over George Mason
Baylor is 5-0 ATS in their last five neutral site games as an underdog as they take on Purdue in the first round of the tourney. The Bears have the up tempo game to give Robbie Hummel and the Boilers a run for their money. The Bears are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 neutral site games and are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5. They are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall as well. As for Purdue, they are 2-5 ATS in their last seven against the Big 12 and are 1-4 ATS in their last five neutral site games as a favorite. Purdue will lose this one outright to Baylor.
The Owls are 6-0 ATS in their last six games following a win as they take on Michigan St today. The Owls have Dionte Christmas, a guard who can go toe to toe with Neitzel of the Spartans. The Owls are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games as an underdog and are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games against a team with a winning record, and are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 NCAA Tournament games. They have covered 19 of 26 overall and have just the team to upset Michigan St. The Spartans are jekyll and hyde this year, beating teams like Texas and losing to Iowa. I love Temple today.
Arizona is 6-1 ATS in their last seven NCAA Tournament games as they take on West Virginia tonight in opening round play. The Wildcats want to prove they belong after hearing all this crap about how they don't belong. The fact is that the Wildcats were 16-4 with Bayless and Wise healthy. They certainly matchup well with West Virginia on the outside, and now have to just contain Alexander. The Wildcats are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine non-conference games. They are 16-7 ATS in their last 23 neutral site games and will beat West Virginia outright.
Notre Dame is 4-0 ATS in their last four games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5 as they lay six against George Mason tonight. The Fighting Irish are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as a favorite and are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall. The Patriots are 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight games overall and are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5 and are 1-5 ATS in their last six non-conference games. What a matchup down low with Will Thomas of G Mason and Luke Harangody of Notre Dame. I give the edge to Harangody and the Irish tonight.
Bob Balfe
College Basketball
Michigan State -7.5 over Temple
Temple has made a nice run winning the A10 Tourney, but Michigan State has a hall of fame coach that will have his players ready. State rebounds the ball better and should put the Owls away.
Baylor +3 over Purdue
A lot of critics have Baylor as the last team into this tourney. Purdue played well this year, but against a weak schedule and are a young team. Baylor can shoot the ball well and should come out with the small upset.
Oral Roberts +8.5 over Pitt
The linemakers know what they are doing. 90% of the public are all over Pitt because the line is under 10. Both teams play tough physical grind it out basketball. Pitt could win by 5 and it would only look close on the scoreboard.
Cornell/Stanford Over 136
This is not a spelling bee. These teams actually are more than just brainiac schools. Cornell can shoot the ball well from the 3pt line and they are great at making foul shots. In the end Stanford should win, but both teams are going to put up a good number of points.
Upset Pick 11 over 6 seed
Kansas State +3.5 over USC
These teams are mirror images of each other except USC is very young. Both teams have great freshman stars. Beasley is amazing and will carry this team to at least one win before he heads up to the NBA. USC should turn the ball over due to inexperience. This might just be the highest seed to win outright today.
CS Fullerton/Wisconsin Over 136.5
You have to love CS Fullerton. They have a great offense and a horrible defense. Wisconsin does not light the scoreboard up, but they have the size advantage and should work Fullerton tonight. Both teams live at the foul line so this might be the last game to get finished this evening. When the clock is always stopping tons of points are scored.
Notre Dame -6.5 over George Mason
The Irish lost a first round game last year to Winthrop and have been waiting for this spot. George Mason is living off what they did three years ago when the reached the final four. This team is not as good and should get handled pretty easily tonight.
Mississippi Valley State +31.5 over UCLA
Miss Valley has no shot at winning this game. However I do not think its smart of UCLA to publicly admit that they will use this game to rest some of their injured players. UCLA has struggled a bit down the stretch winning games at the buzzer. There is no need to run up the score and get someone else injured. Look for the Bruins to coast, but running up the score is the last thing they need to do.
Savannah Sports
3 Units on Baylor +2.5
2 Units on Xavier -8.5
Bob Akmens
College Basketball
Belmont/Duke OV 155.5 / 3 units
National Hockey League
Colorado Avalanche/Calgary Flames OV 5.5 (105) / 3 units
Scott Spreitzer's NCAA First Round Game of the Year! (**Day**)
My 1st Round GOY is a play on Temple, plus points over Michigan State. There's a lot of talk over the past several years about 12-seeds and their decent success against 5-seeds. The lower seeded team has actually won outright 14 times over the past 10 tournaments. I love the switch by Fran Dunphy from John Chaney-zone-schemes, to the tempo-forcing, man-to-man, they play now. It's that in-your-shirt style that will wreak havoc on Michigan State's underwhelming backcourt. Drew Neitzel has never reached the hype he received when he first landed on campus, and his only real serious help is a freshman...Keith Lucas. The two will have to square off against Temple's huge backcourt. Dionte Christmas and Mark Tyndale both go 6'5, and the two combined for over 36 PPG this season. In the paint, the Owls are getting solid play from Lavoy Allen, who can take big-man defenders off the dribble when needed. He's also built for the kind of physical style Michigan State tries to employ. Also, while Temple has gone on a money-making 16-5 srpead run over the last 21 games, Michigan State has stumbled away from home, losing six of their last eight outside of East Lansing. I expect Temple to win this one outright, but my play is to grab the points for insurance. My 1st Round GOY is a play on the Temple Owls, plus points on Thursday.
JB
Bulls
Alatex top play
Xavier
Purelock
MD
A-play
Vip Play - Over Texas A&M
Will Cover
3*Purdue
2*Wisky
2*Ark