Ted Sevransky
Washington State @ North Carolina
PICK: Washington State
In each of the last two years, Washington State has absolutely dominated their non-conference opposition. The Cougars reeled off 14 consecutive victories to start off this season, 9-4 ATS during that run. That included SU and ATS road victories at NCAA tournament bound teams Gonzaga, Baylor and Boise State, not to mention a 15 point win at USC on the opening weekend of PAC-10 play. Last year, the Cougars went 11-1 in early season non-conference action, and started the season by covering ten of their first fifteen lined games.
Tony Bennett’s team runs an extraordinarily difficult offensive system to defend, particularly for opponents who haven’t seen it before, and their defense is as sticky as it gets. That’s why the Cougars SU and ATS results tend to deteriorate down the stretch of the PAC-10 campaign – the other PAC-10 schools have seen it before, and they can prepare for it much better the second time around. North Carolina has no such advantage. And we saw how good this Cougars team can be with a unique level of motivation and focus, following a sluggish first half against Winthrop on Thursday – Wassou went on an incredible 36-5 run to open up the second half, then carried that momentum forward with an absolutely dominant showing against the Fighting Irish, holding Notre Dame to a season low 13 made field goals.
North Carolina was able to control pace and tempo in each of their first two opening weekend games, hanging 113 on Mt St Mary’s and 108 on Arkansas while shooting 61 percent and 68 percent from the floor in those two contests. Neither the Razorbacks nor the Mountaineers were capable of running with the Tar Heels, but neither squad had the defensive acumen to control the pace. Wassou has that acumen, and they are most assuredly a very talented team still searching for respect. Every team gets tested on their way to the Final Four. Expect this game to be the Tar Heels first true test of the tournament. Take Washington State.
Matt Fargo
Louisville vs. Tennessee
Play: Louisville
It has been an interesting season for Louisville. The Cardinals entered the season ranked 6th in the preseason polls but early injuries led to some losses and the Cardinals dropped out of the rankings and eventually moved back up to 13th entering the NCAA Tournament. The thing is, they are probably a better team now that they were entering the season as the injuries knocked them down but it added some important depth. That depth is coming out now and will be big in this game especially.
Tennessee actually had a chance at a number one seed had it won the SEC Tournament but a loss to Arkansas knocked it out early and down to a two seed. This team did not finish very well as it struggled away from home for the most part. A loss at Kentucky started the trend as the Volunteers went 7-3 away from home including the SEC Tournament but of those wins none were by more than five points. A win over American ended up being by 15 points but it was a struggle as was the victory over Butler Sunday.
These seeds should be flip flopped and judging by the line, the linesmakers agree. Ever since the Cardinals got healthy, they have been a dominating team. Since the return of David Padgett and Juan Palacios, Louisville has gone 17-4 and it was keyed by efficiency and stellar defense. Of those 17 wins, 12 have been by double digits including seven either on the road or on a neutral floor which is certainly the opposite of the Volunteers. This includes a 30-point win over Oklahoma adding to the Cardinals domination.
Back to the depth angle, Louisville can often wear other teams down as they use 10 or 11 players per game while 11 Volunteers play 10 minutes or more per game. This is basically a wash and that helps Louisville because Tennessee uses its depth to run on offense while the Cardinals use theirs for defense. Louisville finished 13th in both shooting defense and three-point shooting defense so any offensive edge for the Volunteers is negated.
Another advantage for the Cardinals is the frontcourt as Padgett has been a killer for Louisville and Tennessee does not have anyone that can shut him down. Even more effective is his court presence as he directs the team and is basically the point center and his ability to shoot either left handed or right handed is a big edge. There has been talk about Louisville’s poor free throw shooting in the first two games but Tennessee is not much better overall and it likely won’t even come down to that. Play Louisville Cardinals 1 Unit
EZ WINNERS
SWEET 16 SELECTIONS
5 STAR: (807) WASHINGTON STATE (+8) over North Carolina
(Risking $550 to win $500)
3 STAR: (814) UCLA (-13) over Western Kentucky
(Risking $330 to win $300)
2 STAR: (809) LOUISVILLE (-2) over Tennessee
(Risking $220 to win $200)
2 STAR: (812) XAVIER (+1) over West Virginia
(Risking $220 to win $200)
WILD BILL
Sweet 16, March 27-28
Over 142 1/2 Wash St-UNC (2 units)
North Carolina -7 (1 unit)
Louisville -2 (1 unit)
Over 136 Xavier-West Va (5 units)
Over 143 Villanova-Kansas (2 units)
Wisconsin -5 (5 units)
Michigan St +4 1/2 (1 unit)
Over 135 Texas-Stanford (4 units)
Stanford +2 1/2 (2 units)
Psychicsportspicks
Villanova's defense has been excellent over the past month, but they haven't played against a team as deep and talented as the Jayhawks.Kansas frontcourt is much more athletic than what they have faced. Both teams rely heavily on the perimeter game, but Kansas is better equipped to weather a drought and rally if it falls behind. Highly unlikely. Kansas wins easily
2 units Kansas
Scott Spreitzer
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at UCLA Bruins
I'm laying the points with UCLA. No one, even Washington State, has played as well on the defensive end in the Dance as the Bruins have. UCLA has allowed just 78 total points through the first two rounds! They held their first two opponents to 35-117, 29.9% shooting, including 3-24, 12.5% from behind the arc. The Bruins own a 77-55 rebounding advantage so far in the Dance, and have 24 blocks in two games. There's no denying Western Kentucky wants to push the tempo in this one. But the bottom line is that they don't have the horses to hang with UCLA's talent, even in an uptempo affair. Here's the main problem for the Hilltoppers. If UCLA dictates the pace, they win by 20, in the neighborhood of 70-50. After all, they're the best in the nation at defensively-induced-paced basketball. If WKY gets their way and is able to get UCLA into a fast-paced game, the Hilltoppers don't have the talent (not many do) to hang with Westbrook, who should get uncontested layup after layup. They don't have the quality defender to slow Collison who should get open perimeter shots all night, and Love should get plenty of put-backs when needed, and will own the boards against the WKY inside players. Tough matchups across the board for the pup, and I'll lay it with UCLA.
Play on: UCLA
James Patrick
West Virginia vs. Xavier
This game features a veteran Xavier Musketeer’s team with five returning starters getting a great shot in the Big Dance to erase some bad memories as XU had last season’s runner-up Ohio State beaten until a late collapse led to an overtime loss. The WVU Mountaineers of Bob Huggins return intact a team that won the NIT Championship last season and they play some grueling defense allowing just 62 ppg. They control the ball as they are one of the best in the country in turnover ratio. Huggins is a veteran of post season play as he has had a team in a tournament in 22 of 25 season’s including 15 NCAA appearances. West Virginia also participated in the Elite Eight and Sweet Sixteen the prior two season’s. Expect a very physical & grueling game and we make our selection call on West Virginia Mountaineers.
Marc Lawrence
Play On: Denver Nuggets
Note: Nuggets return home to host the Mavericks in a key Western Conference clash knowing that Dallas is riding a 0-7 SU losing streak in games against winning conference opponents since the all-star break. That ties nicely into Denver's terrific 30-6 ATS mark in games they win SU as a favorite when seeking same season revenge. With the Mavs battered and bruised, stay at home with the Nuggets here tonight.
Note: Magic invade Milwaukee to take on the Bucks with revenge on their minds with both teams coming in off losses in their most recent game. We like the fact that Orlando is a sterling 10-0 ATS as a favorite in games they win SU when playing off a loss and with revenge. With the Bucks just 2-17-3 ATS in SU home losses as a dog against avenging opponents, look for the Magic to get their revenge here tonight.
Dave Cokin
Mavericks @ Nuggets
Play: Nuggets -7
Dallas won their first game without injured star Dirk Nowitzki, but that was against the lowly Clippers. The task is much tougher Thursday night as the Mavs head to Denver. Every game is huge to the Nuggets right now as they're sitting just outside the playoffs and desperately need to win. Dallas has covered their last four trips to Denver, but I think they've got trouble tonight. Nuggets minus the spot.
Great Lakes Sports
Western Kentucky vs UCLA
Play on: UCLA Bruins
The Ucla Bruins are 19-13 ATS as a favorite this year, and are 60-47 ATS overall the last three years. The Bruins is also 24-17 ATS vs non-conference opponents the last three years, and 35-29 ATS when playing in March since 1997. We look for the |UCLA Bruins to roll over the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers for the A|TS Win & cover tonight.
Brian Hansen
Game: Dallas Mavericks at Denver Nuggets
Prediction: under
Reason: These teams have played under the total in five of the last seven meetings and I look for another low scoring game in this one. The total for this game is higher than any of those previous seven contests. Dallas has played under the total in five of their last six games and the Mavericks offense should struggle without Dirk Nowitzki here. Denver has played under the total in their last two games overall as well. Dallas has played under the total in eight of their last 12 games with a total of 210 or more points. Look for this one to fall below the number as the under improves to 48-20 the last 68 Dallas games against Northwest Division opponents. Play on Under!
Big Al Mcmordie
Game: Portland Trail Blazers at Golden State Warriors
Prediction: Portland Trail Blazers
Reason: At 10:35 pm, our member selection is on the Portland Trail Blazers plus the points over Golden State, as road dogs of more than nine points are 64-42 ATS off a win of 20+ points, and 44-22 ATS if they're NOT off back to back wins. With Portland in off exactly one win (a 20 point victory over the Wizards), we'll take the points with the Trail Blazers tonight.
Jimmy The Moose
Game: Buffalo Sabres at Ottawa Senators
Prediction: over
Reason: The over is a profitable 13-3-1 in Buffalo's last 17 games. In their last 12 games played with 1 day rest between action the over is 9-2-1. The over is 7-0-2 in Buffalo's last 9 road games. The over is 6-1 in their last 7 vs. a team with a winning record. Ottawa has easily played over the total in their last 3 games. The team's played on Tuesday and combined for 9 goals. The over is 4-1-1 in the last 6 meetings between the clubs. Play the over.
Vegas Sports Pics
Xavier Musketeers + 1.5 over West Virginia Mountaineers
Xavier which has set a school record for wins in a season is 15-2 last 17 games off beating No.18 Purdue 85-78 in the last round. The Musketeers are 34-11 last 45 March games.
Louisville Cardinals - 2.5 over Tennessee Volunteers
Louisville is 11-2 last 13 games off winning its first two NCAA tournament games by a combined 157-109 shooting 58 percent forcing 35 turnovers over the two games.
Brian Graves
Game: Louisville vs. Tennessee
Pick: Louisville -3
Obviously Vegas knows more than the NCAA Tournament Committee because Louisville is a 3 point favorite and there being bet up. There is no question that right along with UNC, Lousiville has been the most impressive team in the tournament. I had the Cards playing UNC for a shot at San Antonio and nothing has changed after the first 2 games of this tournament. This is a great matchup and will be one of the most entertaining games of the entire tournament, but I have to take the versatility of guys like Williams, Clark and Padgett inside over the Vols streaky outside shooting. Tennessee played poorly against American and if Green could make a free throw or a layup then Butler would be playing in this game tonight. Louisville is the better all around defensive team with Padgett inside and there ability to shoot it as well as the Vols will give them a 79-70 win!
Big AL
3* UNC
Opinion UCLA
Jim Feist.
DAL Mavericks and DEN Nuggets.
Take "Under"
Dallas is playing tighter defense with the playoffs just around the corner, on a 4-1 run under the total. They are also without star offensive player Dirk Nowitzki, so it makes even more sense to step up on defense. Denver is home after a long road trip, on a 2-0 under the total run. The last time these teams met, Dallas won 90-85, slowing the pace down in a game that went under by 32 points. Look for a similar game plan by the visitors. Play the Mavs/Nuggets under!
Dave Cokin.
DAL Mavericks and DEN Nuggets
Take "DEN Nuggets"
Dallas won their first game without injured star Dirk Nowitzki, but that was against the lowly Clippers. The task is much tougher Thursday night as the Mavs head to Denver. Every game is huge to the Nuggets right now as they're sitting just outside the playoffs and desperately need to win. Dallas has covered their last four trips to Denver, but I think they've got trouble tonight. Nuggets minus the spot."