ARMVIN SPORTS
WESTERN KENTUCKY at UCLA Over 133
Play By Play Inc.
LOUISVILLE at TENNESSEE Over 146
WEST VIRGINIA at XAVIER Over 136
Dominic Brando
Sweet 16 Top 100 Unit Release:
DAVIDSON +5-115 over Wisconsin
Tony Mathews
Matchup: Western Kentucky vs. UCLA
Selection: Western Kentucky/UCLA Over 134
Explanation: We expect a high-scoring game as Western Kentucky and UCLA face-off in Thursday's College Basketball contest.
One reason why we expect a high-scoring game is because both these teams have talented offenses. Western Kentucky is scoring an average of 77.2 points per game, while UCLA is scoring an average of 73.3 points per game. As you can see, both these teams have solid offenses.
Trend: The Over is 13-4-1 in Western Kentucky's last 18 neutral site games.
We expect to see many points scored tonight!
Take Western Kentucky/UCLA Over 134
TONY WESTON
We continue with the college hardwood and focus on THE Tournament, specifically the Washington State-North Carolina game.
One of the easiest money makers for the night will be the total on this game. It opened at around the 143 or 142 mark. And obviously that's subject to change. But I'm here to tell you Washington State and North Carolina will blow past that rather easily.
For the year Washington State has allowed 67 points per game, while giving up 56.1. Over the Cougars last five games they've stepped up the offensive pace, putting up 70.2 points per game, while allowing a little more at 59.8 points per. And in that five game stretch the over has come in three times.
Now Washington State takes on a North Carolina team that's averaging 110.5 points per game so far in THE Tournament. For the year the Tar Heels are averaging 89.9 points per game, but have stepped up the scoring over their last five, averaging 91.4.
Over the last 10 games for Carolina the over is 7-2-1 and over the last 20 games for the Heels the over is 13-6-1.
Also, over their last five games Washington State has scored 143 points or more three times, while North Carolina has scored more than 150 points in four of its last five games.
This will be a high scoring affair and the over will come in easily.
Take the over tonight.
3* NORTH CAROLINA-WASHINGTON STATE OVER (1* to 5* Scale)
Karl Garrett
Tonight in the Big Dance, lay the wood with the Tar Heels, as you talk about a stacked deck!
North Carolina got to play their first two games in nearby Raliegh, and now they get to play this game in nearby Charlotte. UNC has cracked the century mark in both of their tourney games, and not surprisingly they have covered both games.
Washington State can boast a pair of lop-sided wins of their own, and they have been doing it with stiffling defense, as the Cougars have allowed an average of just 40.5 points per game in this Big Dance.
The G-Man doubts State will be able to hold the Heels in check, and it is important to note that North Carolina has covered in 7 of their last 8 games against the PAC 10.
Have to side with the overall #1 seed in this spot tonight, as North Carolina takes this one by double-digits.
2* NORTH CAROLINA (on a 1* to 5* basis)
Drew Gordon
Yes, they fooled around with American. Yes, they had trouble with an up-and-down Butler team. Yes, they have issues at the point guard position. But let me be one of the first to warn you... Do not sleep on this Volunteers squad, as they are more than capable of winning this game and here's why:
First, anyone who's watched Tennessee play this season, knows they have a tendecy to play down to their oppostion, and subsequently "get up" for their tougher opponents. The Volunteers were underdogs 4 times this season (at Memphis, at Mississippi State, vs. Gonzaga on neutral court, and at Xavier) and they won OUTRIGHT all 4 times, including their impressive 66-62 win at Memphis February 23rd!
Second, while the Cardinals are usually able to use their depth to overwhelm opponents, that will not be the case tonight. Even Pitino is quoted as saying about Tennessee: ''maybe the deepest team we'll face this year, so our depth won't be too much of an advantage." Both teams can rotate about 10 players, so expect the Vols to keep it competitive, even when the subs enter the game.
Third, let's talk public perception. This is where Vegas makes their money, and I'm warning you about it right here and right now. While its true Louisville won their first two tourney match ups by a combined 48 points, where you really that impressed by either Boise State or Oklahoma? Guys, the Vols are head and shoulders better than either one of the those teams, with the guard play, bigmen, and depth to match up with the Cardinals!
Bottom line, expect a razor close contest here, as the Volunteers and coach Pearl come out supremely motivated in their underdog/"us against the world" role here tonight. Rolling to victories in their first two games might actually come back to bite the Cardinals, as Tennessee can take their best punch and keep coming. After sub-par efforts in his first two tournament games, look for Chris Lofton to make the difference here tonight.
Take Tennessee plus the points over Louisville in tonight's East Regional Semifinals match up.
2* TENNESSEE On a 1* to 5* Scale
Michael Cannon
Lay the points with North Carolina over Washington State in the East Regional.
A big contrast in styles, as the Tarheels are ultra-high tempo while the Cougars are a patient bunch who will want to slow the pace down.
The problem with that tatic is the Tarheels have seen it before, as there are precious few teams in the nation that are willing to run and gun with North Carolina.
On the other hand, Washington State hasn't seen a team that plays at such a frenetic pace as North Carolina.
The Tarheels have rolled through the first two rounds of the tournament and I expect that to continue tonight. They just don't allow their opponents to get any kind of momentum going. As soon as they are scored on, North Carolina pushes the ball up the court immediately for a countering score.
That helps to halt any momentum against them and it also deflates their oppnent who worked hard for the score only to see it neutralized immediately on the other end.
North Carolina is playing arguably its best basketball of the season right now, and with the big prize within their grasp look for them to continue to roll tonight.
Lay the points as North Carolina grabs the win and cover.
5* NORTH CAROLINA On a 1* to 5* basis
VEGAS EXPERTS
Xavier Crusaders at West Virginia Mountaineers
Both teams with two wins and covers in the tourney. Xavier has turned it on then after a 2-3 S/U, 1-4 ATS finish to its season. XAVIER is 13-4 ATS in a neutral court game where the total is 130 to 139.5 since 1997 and 17-8 ATS after having won 2 of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons.
Play on: Xavier
Locksmith Sports
1 Unit on Xavier +1
A big win over powerhouse Duke sets the Mountaineers up for a letdown against an experienced and physical Xavier squad. Xavier has handled two major conference opponents in Georgia and Purdue to get to the Sweet 16 and the Musketeers will be ready to take down another one. Xavier is 11-2 ATS versus excellent teams - shooting >=45% with a defense of <=42% over the last 2 seasons, 17-8 ATS in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons, and 20-6 ATS after a game with 5 or less offensive rebounds since 1997. Xavier is clearly being undervalued here because it is a mid-major, despite its selection as a 3-seed. Take the Musketeers to move on into the Elite.
Scott Rickenbach
Washington State @ North Carolina
PICK: North Carolina
REASON FOR PICK: 1* (regular play) North Carolina Tar Heels (-) vs Washington State @ 7:25 ET – The Cougars have used favorable draws to get past the first two rounds with ease. Of course the Tar Heels have too but North Carolina as proven time and time again that they can step up when necessary. As for Washington State, they went 0-5 this season against Stanford and UCLA (the other two Pac Ten teams still alive in the tournament). In round one of this tourney, the Cougars had their hands full with Winthrop in the first half before dominating the second half but the Eagles of Winthrop certainly aren’t comparable to the Heels of North Carolina! As for round two, the Cougars managed to blow out a Notre Dame offense that just may have been overrated! Consider that the Fighting Irish ended their season with a 2-6 record in games against ranked teams. All of the sudden, the Cougars victory over the Irish is not so impressive.
Thursday, Washington State is taking a big step up in level of competition as they face a team that many believe will win it all this season. North Carolina has so much depth and talent offensively that we just don’t see the Cougars defense being able to hold this team in check. While we do respect what Tony Bennett has done with this Washington State team their slow and conservative play is not going to get the job done here. With Ty Lawson now healthy he combines with other talents on this Tar Heels offense to give North Carolina the ability to break defenses down. Even rock solid ones like Washington State has. The Cougars were last this season in the Pac Ten in offensive rebounds. Of course, that’s because they don’t hit the boards hard on that end because they’re already looking to get back on the defensive end once the shot goes up. This does help slow fast break opportunities going the other way but North Carolina absolutely can execute in a half-court offense.
Look for the Tar Heels defense to help create some opportunities as well. Defense is certainly not the forte of North Carolina but we’ve seen Tar Heels Coach Roy Williams in similar situations in the past where he was able to get his defense to step up when it matters most. Remember 2005 in St Louis? Solid defense played a big role then for the Tar Heels and it can again here. This is especially true since the Cougars aren’t exactly loaded with playmakers on offense. In fact, another key here is that Marcus Ginyard is a rock solid defender for the Tar Heels and he can hold the Cougars top threat Kyle Weaver in check in this game. The Cougars were just 10-8 their last 18 heading into the tournament and their big wins over Winthrop and Notre Dame are getting them a little too much respect from the odds maker here. In what is essentially a home game for the Tar Heels and a cross country road trip for Washington State, we’ll gladly side with the high powered Heels in this one. Play North Carolina minus the points as a regular selection.
David Malinsky 6*
LOUISVILLE over Tennessee
Drew Gordon
1. 400,000* West Virginia
2. 50,000* Nuggets
1. West Virginia- Got to love the Mountaineers in this contest for several strong reasons, but let's start with their recent play. Mountaineers effectively shut down two rock-solid offenses in consecutive tourney games. Arizona was a well-balanced team, led by two of the better player in the PAC-10, and what happened? WVU Limited them to 65 points and cruised to a 10-point victory! Then came Duke, a guard-heavy offense built on the perimeter game, and what happened? WVU Limited them to 67 points on 38% shooting, winning outright 73-67 as 4-point dogs!
This brings me to my first mismatch: Xavier's offense versus the West Virginia
man-to-man defense. Make no mistake, the Musketeers played some relatively weak defenses throughout the season, and even into tournament play. Comparing the surging WVU defense to either Georgia or Purdue's defense is like comparing apples and oranges. Statistically, when we talk about defense, we're talking about scoring defense and opponents field goal percentage... The only team on Xavier's schedule ranked higher than WVU in both categories is Arizona State, and what happened in that game? Xavier got crushed 77-55! Now, I'm not saying that's going to happen, but what I am saying is Xavier hasn't seen a defense like WVU in a long time, and they'll have their issues against it tonight.
Next, let's talk match ups, as clearly the best player on the court is WVU F Joe Alexander. I would go as far to say, he's the only true "go-to" player on the court, giving WVU a huge edge when they "need" a basket. Critics say F Josh Duncan can guard him, but I seriously doubt that. While I'll admit Xavier's experience in the backcourt is an edge, point guards Nichols and Mazzulla (who's playing as good as any backup PG in the country right now) are both excellent distributors, and have the size (both 6'2) to take advantage of the elfish 5'7 Drew Lavender.
Finally, you can't tell me the difference between the Big East and A-10 isn't an issue here. While Xavier was losing at Temple and narrowly beating teams like Charlotte (two of the better teams in the A-10), West Virginia was busy battling teams like Louisville and Pittsburgh. Sorry Xavier-backers, but the difference is crystal clear for this 'Capper, and it'll show in tonight's match up. The fact Xavier also had a much easier path to the Sweet 16 cannot be ignored, as Georgia was lucky to be there, and Purdue was a deeply flawed team that played zero defense against the Musketeers.
Bottom line, Xavier runs smack into wall called the WVU defense, while Alexander and company have the edges necessary to exploit a good, but not great Xavier defense. "Battle-tested" is a word that the media loves to throw around, but in this case, it's appropriate, as the Mountaineers battles in the Big East pay off on the Big Stage tonight in Phoenix.
Take West Virginia over Xavier as your top-rated play of the day.
2. Nuggets- So the Mavericks snap their 3-game losing streak, clobbering the lowly Clippers 103-90 Tuesday night in Dallas, and now everything is okay, right? Wrong! Don't let one home win against one of the worst teams in the NBA fool you... This is a Dallas team on the ropes without Nowitzki, and getting it done in Denver is a hell of a lot different than beating the Clippers in Dallas!
Let's not forget, the Nuggets are sitting on the outside looking in (9th spot, 1/2 game back from the Warriors), and would like nothing more than to improve their position, and subsequently hurt the Mavs playoff chances with a win here tonight. If there's any place the Nuggets can do it, its at the Pepsi Center, where they've been downright nasty of late, winning 5 in a row SUATS, averaging a ridiculous 129.6 ppg over that span! Sure wins against Seattle and Memphis were easy, but they also beat the Spurs, Suns, and Raptors over that span... So don't tell me those wins aren't impressive!
Without Nowitzki, matchups become a real issue for the Mavs, because unlike the sorry Clippers, the Nuggets have the personnel to take advantage of the big German's absence. First off, Dampier is not going to score 19 points and grab 17 rebounds (like he did against the Clippers) against the frontline of Marcus Camby and Kenyon Martin. Also, neither Kidd nor Stackhouse can guard Iverson, which immediately opens the Mavs defense to dribble penetration. And finally, Josh Howard and Carmelo Anthony all but equalize each other, leaving the Mavs grasping for answers.
Finally, let's examine the series, as Denver has covered three in a row, and that was with Nowitzki in the lineup. Not only that, but as mentioned above, Denver is killing teams at the Pepsi Center, and Dallas will be no different. Also, I can't imagine all the grumblings from owner Mark Cuban is helping this Dallas team, as he's publicly questioned his coach and his team in recent weeks. It appears as though the addition of Jason Kidd was not the spark they envisioned, and after tonight, it'll be crystal clear which team is playing better basketball. Nuggets roll!
Take the Nuggets BIG over the Mavericks in this NBA match up.
Jack Clayton
UCLA
Mighty Quinn
West Virginia
RedZone Sports
NC/Wash State under
Max Prophet
Dallas Mavericks vs Denver Nuggets Over
VEGAS STEAMLINE
Dallas/Denver OVER
Steve Janus
Western Kentucky + 12.5
SportsCapping
West Virginia/Xavier Over 136
Madduxsports
UCLA -12
Joe Wiz
Nuggets
Heat
Razor Sharp Sports
Wky/UCLA Under
Scott Spreitzer
Portland/GST Over
Glen Mcgrew
Xavier
Huddle Up Sports
Mavs
ARTHUR RALPH
Louisville
NATIONAL SPORTS SERVICE
W. Kentucky +12
Sportsguru
W.Kentucky
BRW Sports Advisors
Louisville -2.5
HotLocksports
Devils/Rangers Under 5
John Fina
Selection: Detroit Pistons (-)
Today the Miami Heat will be on the road as they take on the Detroit Pistons. We will lay the points with the Detroit Pistons! The Detroit Pistons have the much superior overall team. The bottom line, the Detroit Pistons should have no problem dominating this game on offense and defense which means the Miami Heat will struggle from start to finish. In addition, the Miami Heat are a bad road team. In fact, the Miami Heat are 6-14-1 ATS in their last 21 road games. We will lay the points with the much superior team! Take the Detroit Pistons