Karl Garrett
40 DIMER - LOUISVILLE....10 DIMERS - XAVIER, & WESTERN KENTUCKY
40 DIMER - LOUISVILLE CARDINALS
With all due respect to the Vols, I believe this Louisville team is the better team, and I believe the Cardinals will dispose of Tennessee in this round to advance to the next round.
Louisville is on an 11-2 run both straight up, and against the spread, and the Cards are on a 12-4-1 spread run away from Freedom Hall, while the Volunteers are just 8-11 against the spread away from Knoxville this season.
Also keep in mind that Tennessee's star guard Chris Lofton is nursing a sore ankle. The writing is on the wall my friends!
Louisville is playing too well right now, and Tennessee was lucky to escape in overtime against Butler last round.
Take Louisville.
10 DIMER - XAVIER MUSKETEERS
Tough game here, but I will respect the selection committee's seedings, and grab the #3 seed plus a point or so tonight in Phoenix.
Xavier is getting some rock-solid point guard play from Drew Lavender, and they have the perfect mix of senior leadership to keep this march run motoring on. No knock on West Virginia, as Alexander, and Ruoff, along with Nichols continue to impress, but I am siding with the Musketeers in this near pick spot to move on to the Elite Eight.
10 DIMER - WESTERN KENTUCKY HILLTOPPERS
This Hilltoppers team is really getting no respect with this line, and I am going to jump all over them plus the double-digits to give UCLA a fight before finally bowing out.
Ben Howland's team is shooting for another Final Four, but they looked mighty shaky against Texas A&M as the Bruins just aren't getting much production from their role players.
The Hilltoppers are just deadly enough from long range to keep them in range in this spot tonight.
Take WKU to stay inside of the number in this one.
Michael Cannon
Thursday's Plays...
25 Dime –
XAVIER
Take Xavier tonight over West Virginia in the West Regional.
A lot of small edges go Xavier’s way in this matchup. Experience, depth and scoring balance just to name a few.
But the biggest reason I’m siding with Xavier is point guard Drew Lavender.
The lightning-quick senior has the ability to control the tempo of this game all by himself, and he’s got the experience and talent to get it done in the clutch for the Minutemen.
West Virginia may have the biggest pure scorer on the court in Joe Alexander, but Xavier has six players that average between 10 and 12 ppg. All it takes is one game where Alexander gets into foul trouble and the Mountaineers scoring goes down the drain.
Don’t be surprised if it happens here tonight.
The Minutemen have gone to the charity stripe 33 times in each of their first two games of the tournament, where they are shooting a whopping 80 percent as a team.
Alexander is going to have to work on both ends of the court in this game, as Josh Duncan has the ability to score from the perimeter or low post. That means a lot of Alexander’s energy is going to be expended on the defensive end, which could affect his shooting in the second half.
Take Xavier as their experience, scoring balance and Lavender make the difference tonight.
10 Dime –
LOUISVILLE
Take Louisville tonight over Tennessee.
The only team playing better than the Cardinals right now in the tournament is North Carolina.
Louisville coach Rick Pitino has dialed it up on defense and his players have responded in a big, big way.
The Cardinals are on an 11-2 SUATS run over the last two months and I don’t see Tennessee hanging within the number tonight.
Louisville is a deep, athletic team that causes headaches for its opponents with an aggressive 2-3 zone that makes it difficult for opponents to find an open look.
The Volunteers best chance in this game is if guard Chris Lofton is hot, but he’s only shooting 22 percent from the field through the first two rounds and I doubt he gets hot against the pressure the Cardinals are sure to keep him under.
Take Louisville minus the points as they grab the win and cover.
WUNDERDOG MLB
Game: Tampa Bay at Cleveland
Pick: Tampa Bay +118
If you haven't paid attention this spring, the Rays are 17-6 and have a major league leading +51 runs scored in all games played this spring. One of the bright spots is Andy Sonnanstine who has pitched as well as anyone down here. He brings in a spectacular 0.64 ERA to his final spring tune-up. The Indians counter with Cliff Lee, who is penciled into the 5th spot in the Tribe's rotation. Lee has yielded 21 hits in 13 innings this spring and is very hittable. We'll back the spring-hot Rays to notch another one.
Game: Pittsburgh at New York Yankees
Pick: Pittsburgh +166
Tom Gorzelanny will square off against Kei Igawa. Gorzelanny has had a rough spring, but the final appearance is when pitchers let loose to get ready for opening day. Igawa has had a decent spring, but he certainly isn't a front-liner on the Yankee staff. And again odds like this in an exhibition game show the power of the Yankees name, not the results on the field. We'll take the pitching edge and big odds to back the Pirates.
MLB Exhibition Season Game of the Year
Game: Milwaukee at Chicago Cubs
Pick: Milwaukee +103
The opportunities in the spring are limited to who shows up and when. Lots of good pitchers are experimenting and not concerned about the results. There are also a lot of others trying to make an impression by airing it out. Today we have two teams that will open the season Monday, and neither will throw a major-league roster pitcher in this one, as they don't want to show each other anything. That means this becomes a minor league game, with players playing hard to make a final impression. That gives an edge to the Brewers. The brewers AAA affiliate, the Nashville Sounds is stacked with talent. They went 89-55 last year, but more important is the depth of quality pitchers that had a league-leading 3.80 ERA last year. In the same league, the Cubs finished with a 5.15 ERA. While the Brewers will bring a few roster players the Cubs are packing and leaving for Las Vegas where they play a game tomorrow, so there will be no major leaguers here. A decided edge on both fronts for the Brewers, and as a dog, this one is chock full of value.
BEN BURNS
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
UNDER Xavier/West Virginia
Game: West Virginia vs. Xavier
Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on XAVIER and West Virginia to finish UNDER the total. The Musketeers come off a high-scoring game against Purdue last time out. However, they had previously held four straight opponents to 65 points or less and I expect them to deliver another strong defensive effort this evening. Looking back a bit further and we find that, prior to Purdue, six of Xavier's prvevious eight opponents had managed 61 points or less. That includes holding Dayton to 48 and limiting Duqeusne to a mere 48. Five of those eight games stayed below the number. For the season, the Musketeers have allowed an average of 62.7 points, including just 28.3 in the first half. West Virginia, which allows an average of 63.1 (29.7 in first half) is nearly as good in that department. The Mountaineers limited high-scoring Duke to 67 last time out, in a game that fell below the number by six points. The Mountaineers have to contend with some of the nation's elite defenses, while playing in the Big East. Therefore, it's worth noting that they've seen the UNDER go 6-2 on the season when facing a team which allows 64 points or less per game. While the Mountaineers weren't known for their defense under former coach Beilein, they have become much tougher on that side of the ball under Coach Huggins. As backup point guard Joe Mazzulla stated: "Last year, we did two hours of offense and 10 minutes of defense (in practice). This year, we do two hours of defense and half-hour of offense." Xavier has seen the UNDER go 3-1 its last four games against Big East opponents. The Musketeers, currently listed as slight underdogs, have also seen the UNDER go 9-4 the last 13 times that they were getting points and 4-1 the last five times they were underdogs of two points or less. Look for this evening's final combined score to be lower than expected once again. *Blue Chip
XAVIER
Game: West Virginia vs. Xavier
Prediction: Xavier Reason: I'm playing on XAVIER. West Virginia has beaten a pair of what people perceive to be tougher opponents (Arizona and Duke) to get here. That has caused the majority of the general public to feel that the Mountaineers are the better team and they're currently slight favorites. Its not Xavier's fault that it "only" played Georgia and Purdue though. Also, while those two opponents admittedly don't have the big names like Duke and Arizona, Purdue played great all season and Georgia entered the tournament on a very big emotional high and was as hot as just about any team in the country at the time. Meanwhile, Duke wasn't playing that well down the stretch while many people didn't even feel Arizona deserved to be here. Therefore, while I've been impressed with the Mountaineers' victories, I disagree that they somehow make them better than Xavier. Yes, the Mountaineers play in the stronger conference. However, we've already seen arguably better Big East teams, like Georgetown and UConn, lose to the likes of San Diego and Davidson. Additionally, the A-10 is a lot more competitive than many people realize. While the Mountaineers have a couple of stars, the Musketeers are one of the most balanced teams in the country. They've got six players who are capable of scoring and with no real star among them, all of them have a "team first" mentality. The Musketeers have been listed as underdogs twice this season and they won both games outright. I expect their depth to prove the difference and for them to score another "upset" this evening. *Best Bet
HOCKEY
UNDER Sabres/Sens
Game: Buffalo Sabres vs. Ottawa Senators
Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on the Sabres and Senators to finish UNDER the total. Yes, these teams played a high-scoring game against each other at Buffalo recently. However, as we've seen the past couple of nights, that doesn't necessarily mean that this evening's game will again be high-scoring. Two nights ago, the Rangers and Flyers were playing the back half of a home and home series. The first game was high-scoring but the second finished with just two goals after regulation. Last night, it was the Wild and Oilers who were playing the second of back to back games against each other. The first game produced eight goals but the second saw only half as many. I'm expecting the pattern to hold and for tonight's game to feature significantly less scoring than we saw at Buffalo on Tuesday. After playing eight games in a row which saw six or less combined goals scored (Under was 7-1!) the Sens have played three straight high-scoring contests. That's worth noting as we find the UNDER at 49-36-2 the last 77 times that they had seen their previous three games all go 'over' the total. Tuesday's result notwithstanding, the Sens have still seen the UNDER go 55-43-3 against division opponents the past three seasons and an even better 59-36-5 (62%) when coming off a game vs. a divisional opponent. Look for those numbers to improve here as the final combined score falls beneath the generous number. *total of the week
Brandon Lang
40 Dime Louisville
10 Dime West Virginia
5 Dime Western Kentucky
Free Pick - Washington State
Arthur Ralph
Superpick: North Carolina
Regular Play: Xavier
Josh Dean
CBB
Unc/Wash UNDER
NHL
NJ/NYR UNDER 5
Wash/TB OVER 5.5
Phx/LA OVER 5.5
FREE B: Xavier +1.5
Cappers Access
Xavier
Louisville
LT's Lock
Washington St. +8'
WINNERS EDGE
Louisville -3 , 2 units
North Carolina - 8.5 , 2 units
Priceless Picks
1 Unit on West Virginia -1
West Virginia is one of the best ATS NCAA Tourney teams we have ever seen. Oddsmakers have rightly favored the Mountaineers following impressive wins over stories team Arizona and Duke. Coach Huggins has his boys believing and I like them to continue on to the round of 8. WVU is 12-0 ATS in all NCAA tournament games since 1997, 8-1 ATS in post-season tournament games over the last 3 seasons, 6-0 ATS as a neutral court favorite of 6 points or less or pick over the last 2 seasons, and 17-5 ATS in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons. I like the more talented team from a tougher conference to prevail here.
Jeff Alexander Sports
1 Unit on Washington State/UNC Under 143
There’s no doubt that the Cougars will play good enough defense on Carolina to keep this one under the number. Washington State has gone under the number in each of its first two tourney games, holding its opponents to 40.5 ppg. Washington State knows its only chance to beat Carolina is to slow the game down. The Cougars have stuck to this style of play through and through the past two seasons and I don’t see them deviating from it now. Washington State 18-6 UNDER after 2 consecutive non-conference games over the last 3 seasons, 28-10 UNDER in non-conference games since 1997, and 28-14 UNDER after 2 or more consecutive unders since 1997. Take the Under.
The Sports Executives
UNC -8
Louisville -3
UCLA -12
CAJUN SPORTS COMP
Play: 3* Denver -7.5
Comments: This game is extremely important for both of these teams as they fight for one of the final playoff spots in the West. With each team having only eleven games left this game becomes a huge game for the winner as they have a leg up owning the tie-breaker in case they finish the regular season with identical records. It certainly wont hurt the Nuggets feelings any to see the team leader for Dallas Dirk Nowitzki sitting on the bench for this contest as he has scored 32 points per game and snatched 12 boards against the Nuggets this season. The Nuggets have been playing well of late and taking care of their backers as well, they have covered 10 of their last 12 games heading into tonight’s match up with Dallas. This series has been dominated against the spread lately by the host team as they have covered 8 of the last 9 series meetings. Another positive note for the Nuggets is the fact that Dallas has not defeated a team with a winning record since acquiring Jason Kidd. A closer look at the scoring performance of the Denver Nuggets we see over their last 15 games they have averaged 119 points per game, this triggers a negative situation for Dallas because we know they are 44-111 ATS since 1996 in road games when they allow 105 or more points. We don’t expect Dallas to be able to hold this Nuggets team under that number and if they cannot their chances of covering the spread are not very high based on their past performance in this situation. The Mavericks coming off four straight ATS losses now installed as a conference underdog of 7 to 10 points are 0-5 ATS. The Nuggets have excelled when coming off road trips under the right situation, if they are coming in off five straight road games now playing a conference home game they are 9-1-1 ATS. Finally we have a few league wide angles that apply to Denver. The first tells us that teams that won SU in their last three road games now at home are 134-86-5 ATS. If they are a favorite in that game they are 193-137-7 ATS. Teams that won both SU and ATS in three straight road games and are now at home they are 83-49-3 ATS. If these teams are installed as a favorite coming off three SU/ATS wins they are 104-75-3 ATS. The last league wide angle tells us that teams coming off three SU/ATS road wins and now installed as a home favorite are 71-44-2 ATS. Combine all of our technical, fundamental and situational factors and Denver gets the call as our 3* NBA Super Situation Winner.
Right Angle Sports (RAS)
West Virginia vs Xavier +1
Xavier has set a record for most wins in school history and have been equally impressive in and out of conference play. With three senior starters and five upperclassmen in the top six including two D-1 transfers, they are one of the oldest and most experienced teams left in the field. The Musketeers have the most balanced scoring team in the country with six players averaging between 9.8ppg and 12.1ppg. All six have terrific one on one ability but also play with great teamwork and chemistry. Xavier has athleticism at every position enabling them to play great defense, rebound, and get to most loose balls. Guard Stanley Burrell is the reigning A-10 defensive player of the year and will likely be assigned to shutdown WVU playmaker Nichols or sharpshooter Ruoff, each of who is critical to the Mountaineer attack. West Virginia was fortunate to shoot lights out (57.9%) from 3 point range vs Arizona in round one win. In round two Duke shot miserably (5 for 22 from 3) and WVU got to every loose ball (+20 rebound margin) to survive. West Virginia has been foul prone, committing 3 more fouls than their opponent in each of the first two rounds, despite holding late leads and winning both. This is something that Xavier (75.5% FT shooting, 14th best in the country) will take advantage of. West Virginia has overachieved all season but will find a tough matchup here.Take the small dog.
Play: Xavier +1
Stanford vs Texas -2
Rick Barnes mentioned early in the season that this Longhorn team had a chance to be very good and they certainly have not disappointed. Texas earned impressive non-conference wins vs #1 seed UCLA and vs #2 seed Tennessee, both away from home, even before rotation freshman forward Gary Johnson was cleared to play. Johnson also sat out recent Big 12 championship loss to Kansas that went down to the wire. He returned to play a limited role vs Miami Fla last week and will be closer to full strength Friday. Texas not only has one of the best backcourts in the nation, which is critical at this time of year, but also has above average quickness at nearly every position. Both of these strengths will enable them to exploit Stanford's two biggest weaknesses, backcourt play and team speed. Texas can also neutralize Stanford's size advantage with their ability to play zone defense at a high level, having done so throughout the regular season. Huge 6-10/300 reserve center Pittman has emerged as a factor in recent games and will take up space inside for parts of the game. Stanford played no one in non-conference play. Of their four wins over the Sagarin top 25, three came vs slow Washington State, and the fourth came in their last game, a one point OT thriller over Marquette played in Anaheim. Stanford more or less has given up on their reserve guards as starters Johnson and Goods each played 40+ minutes vs Marquette. Despite the final score of last game, Texas has coasted through the first two rounds and now will have the huge advantage of playing just 2 1/2 hours from campus. Give the points.
Play: Texas -2
No Total Plays for Thursday