ER Sports
20* Playmaker: Memphis Over 134
Playmaker: Tennessee +3
Any Budin?
Fairway
20* Big Drive: Xavier +1
20* Big Drive: Memphis Over 136.5
Xavier Under 136
Western Kentucky +12
NBA Miami +22
Gina
Miami Heat (13-58) at Detroit Pistons (50-21)
The sorrowful Miami Heat have played the Pistons tough in the past and did lose a close, 100-95 fight earlier this season on February 6 at the Palace of Auburn Hills. Miami is a pitiable team, but has been lucrative, 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games and 8-2-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings against Detroit. Take Miami to cover the huge 21½ point spread. The Heat has covered the spread in four of the last 5 meetings in Detroit.
Miami Heat
Miami Heat + 21½
Portland Trail Blazers + 11½
Mr. A
Denver Nuggets - 9
Portland Trail Blazers + 10
Johnny Guild
West Virginia (26-10) vs. Xavier (29-6) Over - 136
North Carolina Tar Heels - 8.5
Washington State (26-8) vs. North Carolina (34-2) Over - 142
Louisville (26-8) vs. Tennessee (31-4) Over - 146
NBA
Dallas Mavericks (45-26) at Denver Nuggets (43-28)
The Mavericks are 15-19 on the road this season and has dropped two of the last three contests at Denver. Meanwhile, the hot Nuggets have won six straight and eight of its last nine games at the Pepsi Center. Take Denver at home for their fourth victory in a row and seventh at home. Look for Denver's offense with veteran point guard Allen Iverson to outscore Dallas, especially without Nowitzki in the lineup. The Nuggets are averaging 109.5 points per game, the third highest scoring team in the league. Denver has covered the spread in their last 5 home games.
Denver Nuggets - 9
Sports Monitor
MATCHUP: Dallas Mavericks (45-26) at Denver Nuggets (43-28)
THE LINE The Nuggets are -8 and the total is 217 points
TRENDS
The Mavericks have covered five of theri last six road games.
The Nuggets have covered their last five home games. Denver
has covered 20 of their last 28 as the favorite.
GAME SUMMARY
The Dallas Mavericks' playoff hopes are surrounded by uncertainty,
especially with Dirk Nowitzki out of the lineup for at least the
next few games.
SPORTS MONITOR PREDICTION: Denver 115 Dallas 102
Scott Delaney
XAVIER
TENNESSEE
Any Budin?
HAVEN'T SEEN ANY YET
LOOKING FOR SOMEONE TO FADE ;D
Nick Parsons
Denver Nuggets -8
With the playoffs on the line for both clubs late in the season this is a case of two teams that will be heading in opposite directions. Right now, the Mavericks hold a two game lead over the Nuggets but Dallas lost Dirk Nowitzki to injury in the Spurs game on Easter Sunday. In their very next game, others stepped up in the absence of Nowitzki. However, playing the Clippers, who were without the injured Chris Kaman, certainly helped the Mavericks and allowed for others to step up their game. Now, the Mavericks must deal with a red hot Denver team that wrapped up their road trip with three straight wins. The Nuggets are back home tonight where they've thrived and they're facing a Mavericks team that has been having a miserable time on the road recently. Also, the Mavs still have not beaten a team with a winning record since they acquired Jason Kidd from the Nets. That stat won't change here as the Nuggets win and they get the cover as Denver's offense has been amazing while the Mavericks offense, without Nowitzki, won't be able to keep up.
ANTON WINS
4 units on Tennessee +3
3 units Under 179.5 MIA/DET
AAA Sports
Portland Trail Blazers at Golden State Warriors - Over 208 Unit Value: 2
West Virginia Mountaineers at Xavier Musketeers - West Virginia -1 Unit Value 2
Washington State Cougars at North Carolina Tar Heels - Washington State +8.5 Unit Value: 2
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at UCLA Bruins - Western Kentucky +11.5 Unit Value: 2
Washington State Cougars at North Carolina Tar Heels - Over 141.5 (Heavy Hitter)Unit Value: 3
Jeff Benton
25 Dime: WASHINGTON STATE (plus the points vs. North Carolina)
10 Dime: Washington State-North Carolina UNDER the total
10 Dime: XAVIER (plus the points vs. West Virginia)
Washington State
More so at this time of year than any other, handicapping college basketball is as much about style as it is talent. And aside from maybe UCLA-Western Kentucky, there is no bigger contrast in styles in the Sweet 16 matchups than up-tempo North Carolina and methodical, defensive-minded Washington State. And as incredibly talented and athletic as the top-seeded Tar Heels are, I’m convinced that Washington State is going to give them absolute fits tonight. The Cougars are a solid, senior-laden team that runs a highly effective, ball-control offense that can frustrate impatient opponents that like to get out and run. And you can be sure that Washington State will hold the ball as long as possible tonight and run multiple motion plays looking for the highest-percentage shot on each possession. The key, of course, is for the Cougars to find the bottom of the net on the majority of those shots, which I think they can do. See, Wazu doesn’t just rely on a strong defense. Offensively, the Cougars shoot 48 percent from the field for the season (North Carolina shoots 49.1), and they shoot 38 percent from three-point land (same as UNC). And at neutral sites, Wazu shoots at a 49.5 percent clip (40.7 percent from 3-land), while UNC makes 53.7 percent (41.3 from 3-land).
The point? Washington State can absolutely make shots … thing is, they take 30 seconds or so on each possession to put the ball in the air, which is what you have to do against opponents that are more talented and athletic like North Carolina; you’ve got to limit the Tar Heels’ touches, and Wazu can do that.
Also, I don’t know if you watched the Cougars last weekend, but I did, and man was I impressed. They slaughtered a solid Winthrop team 71-40 as a 10-point favorite last Thursday, then hammered Notre Dame (a Top 25 team) 61-41 as a 2½-point favorite on Saturday. Washington State shot a combined 51.5 percent from the field (53-for-103) in both games (at altitude in Denver, mind you), and held both teams to 27.6 percent, with Notre Dame and Winthrop COMBINING for just 29 field goals. In fact, beginning with the second half of the Winthrop contest, Washington State gave up 52 points … in 30 minutes of action!
Now, don’t get me wrong: They’re not going to have THAT kind of success against Carolina – it would be a miracle. But Notre Dame averaged 79 points per game (20th best in the nation) and managed 41 against Washington State, while Winthrop averaged a decent 65 points per game, and came up 25 points of that average vs. the Cougars.
Now, I know Carolina obliterated its two first-round foes, blasting 16th-seeded Mount St. Mary’s 113-74 and Arkansas 108-77. But, sorry, Washington State’s wins were more impressive because their opponents were tougher. Also, keep in mind that even though Carolina is 34-2 this year, it has been involved in a bunch of tight games. Consider: The Heels beat Clemson three times, twice in overtime and once by five points in the ACC tournament title game; they barely held off Virginia Tech (last-second basket for a two-point win) in the conference tournament; they needed a huge rally to beat Boston College by 10; they lost to Maryland at home by two; they beat UNC-Ashville at home by just 12; beat Kentucky by 9; Ohio State by 11; BYU by 10 and Davidson by 4. And I submit that Washington State is more fundamentally sound than any of those teams – and its style of play much more difficult for North Carolina.
Bottom line: Washington State is no slouch. The Cougars are 26-8 on the season; they’ve won four of their last five; they played a grueling schedule in the competitive Pac-10; and they’re well-coached and will be ready for this game. As for the Tar Heels, prior to those easy wins last week, they had gone 1-5 ATS in their previous six games, including 0-5 ATS as a favorite. This line is ridiculously inflated folks, as I see this as a one-possession game in the final minute. Take the generous points with Washington State.
Washington State-North Carolina UNDER
Real easy to explain this one: If you’re going to side with Washington State, you pretty much have to take the UNDER. Because if Washington State is going to hang in this game, it is going to do so by effectively employing that aforementioned ball-control offense and using its tricky zone defense to confuse the Tar Heels and force them to run clock. Washington State, which has played under the total in seven of its last 10 games, including both contests last week, hasn’t played a game with a posted total higher than 135½ since the very first game of the season, when it beat Eastern Washington 68-41 with the game going way under the number of 141. In fact, 10 of the Cougars’ last 13 games haven’t even hit the 128 mark in terms of combined points. Now, obviously, Carolina has a lot of “over” trends because they’ve scored at will against teams that can’t or don’t play defense. That won’t be the case tonight, trust me. In the end, I see the pace of this contest mimicking the North Carolina-Virginia Tech contest 10 days ago in the ACC tournament. The final of that contest: 68-66. Throw in the fact that the under is 30-12-1 in Wazu’s last 43 non-conference games, and we’ll play this one UNDER the total.
Xavier
Remember what I said about styles above? Same thing applies here. Everyone’s going ga-ga over West Virginia because the Mountaineers beat Arizona and Duke, but both of those teams are similar in style to West Virginia – meaning, both are perimeter-oriented and neither have much of a low-post presence. Tonight? Different story. Xavier is not only athletic, it is “long” and that length is going to cause the Mountaineers problems … similar to the way Georgetown’s size was too much for West Virginia earlier this year, as the Mountaineers lost to the Hoyas at home (58-57 as a 3½-point favorite) and on a neutral court in the Big East tournament (72-55 as a three-point underdog). In fact, the majority of West Virginia’s 10 losses this season have came against “big” squads, including Tennessee, Notre Dame, Louisville, Oklahoma, Cincinnati and UConn, in addition to the two Georgetown losses. So I’m not going to be at all surprised if West Virginia has trouble scoring in this game or stopping Xavier’s inside-outside game.
In addition to all this, I just don’t think Xavier is getting the respect it deserves in this contest. The Musketeers have been a Top 20 team all season long (currently ranked 12th) and comes into this game having won 29 of 34 games, including a pair of wins and covers against Georgia and Purdue in last week’s opening rounds. And Xavier has been an underdog just twice this season, and it won both games outright, beating Indiana 80-65 as a two-point underdog and Rhode Island 81-77 as a two-point pup. What’s more, the Musketeers are now 8-1 ATS in their last nine NCAA Tournament games (6-0 ATS as an underdog) and 25-7 in their last 32 neutral-site games (11-2 ATS as a neutral-site dog). Xavier – which holds the edge on offense, defense, free-throw shooting and rebounding against the Mountaineers – gets it done, and I wouldn’t be surprised if its not very close.
BETTORS WORLD 5* Key Release
When the line on the Tennessee/Louisville game opened up at +2 we were licking our chops. We had the game dead even and were ready to grab the +2 until a dream come true happened. The money came in on Louisville and moved the number to -3. We'll gladly take the added value at +3 with the 31-4 Tennessee Vols.
The line move was due mostly to the way each team got to this game. Louisville cruised past Oklahoma and Boise while the Vols had to go to overtime to dismiss Butler and the American U game was closer than the score indicated.
But you won't find a respected power rating in the country that has Louisville 3 points better than the Vols. In a game of this magnitude, that breaks down dead even, there's tons of value taking the points here in a game the Vols can win straight up. Of the 4 games on tonight's card, this one presents the most value as the lines on the other 3 games are tight.
THE GOLD SHEET'S LATE TELEPHONE SERVICE
XAVIER over West Virginia 1 1/2 UNITS
Western Kentucky-Ucla OVER
NBA
Miami-Detroit OVER
More basketball picks tomorrow at 1:15 PM PST
TOP CHOICE = XAVIER over West Virginia 1.5 units all other plays here recommended @ 1.0 units