Dave Cokin
Western Kentucky @ Arkansas State
Play: Western Kentucky +1'
Free opinion for Thursday is the Sun Belt clash between Western Kentucky and Arkansas State. I'm a little surprised the Hilltoppers are the dog here, as they are coming on some while Arkansas State is sliding a bit. I like taking dogs that are trending forward against favorites trending in reverse, particularly when it's kind of a subtle rise or fall, which is thus not overly adjusted into the number. Even though it's a very short price, Western Kentucky is nevertheless the dog and has value.
Cajun Sports
California Golden Bears vs. UCLA Bruins -12
PLAY: 2* California Golden Bears +12
Pauley Pavilion will be the site of tonights Pac 10 clash between the host UCLA Bruins and the visiting California Golden Bears. Both teams last played on Saturday with Cal defeating Oregon at home 76 to 69 while UCLA suffered a Pac 10 road loss at Washington 86 to 75.
The Cal Bears have played surprisingly well for new head coach Mike Montgomery in fact they lead the nation from behind the arc shooting 46.9 percent on the season. They are 16-4 SU and a money making 11-5 against the spread this season. Cal is 4-3 both SU and against the spread when taking to the road this season averaging 71.7 points per game versus teams that allow 65.6 points per game and defensively the Bears are allowing 72.4 points per game.
UCLA has struggled of late losing two out of their last three games. The Bruins are 15-4 SU and 8-10 against the spread overall on the year. In Pac 10 play they are 5-2 SU but only 3-4 ATS averaging 70.4 points per game and allowing 63.7 points per game.
We have a few technical situations that could have an effect on tonights contest. First we see that Cal is 30-15 ATS when playing on the road in the month of January since 1997 and 18-7 ATS in road games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons. The Bears have also responded well after having lost two out of their last three games posting an ATS record of 9-1 in that situation and after having won at home in their last game going 7-1 ATS in that role.
Data base research has uncovered a College Basketball System that tells us to Play Against CBB teams coming off a game in which they lost both SU and ATS with the game going over the posted total these teams have a record of 62-102 ATS.
UCLA has shown signs of fatigue in their last few games and having to contend with the Bears solid perimeter game may be enough to keep this one close at the end. Combine that fact with solid technical support and we have a play on the Cal Bears in LA tonight.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: (2*) California Bears 71 UCLA Bruins 75
Marc Lawrence
Play On: Iowa.
When the Hawkeyes play host to the Spartans at Carver Arena Thursday evening they will do so knowing they are 53-11 SU on this floor the last 4 years, including 10-1 this season. In those game they are 18-10-1 ATS against Big 10 foes, including 8-2 ATS when taking points. With Michigan State off a double-digit win at Ohio State and Iowa off a 4-point loss at Penn State, look for the Hawkeyes to improve on their numbers here tonight. Take the points with Iowa.
Matt Rivers
For Thursday take the Huskies in Tucson.
It'sofficial: The Washington Huskies are a very good basketball team.
It's also official: The Arizona Wildcats are no longer a very good basketball team.
In the world of college hoops Arizona is still somewhat known to be a perennial Pac 10 contender but yet this team in the post Lute Olson era continues to be a semi joke. They did just come back from that 9 point deficit in the final 39 seconds last time out in an unreal win and cover (by the hook for most) over Houston but the Wildcats are no longer big and bad and are just a flat out mediocre 12-8 squad that does stupid things a lot more often than the average team.
It's a shame that the 'Cats are not very good because they do have some talent with Budinger, Hill and Wise but the sum has not equaled the parts this season and before that last miracle comeback win lost three straight games and five of seven. Today Arizona welcomes in an improving and very solid Washington team that is absolutely rolling right now.
The road is never easy and I am the first to admit that but Lorenzo Romar's squad is 15-4 after a fourth straight win five days ago in downing the quality UCLA Bruins going away. The Huskies have lost one whole game in the past two months plus with the defeat coming against a pretty good California squad.
This may not be a great "value" backing Washington on the road here but they have been getting the job done for the past few months and against what is possibly the worst Wildcat team we have seen in years I will expect Washington's success to continue today behind blossoming studs in Thomas, Brockman, Dentmon and Poindexter.
Karl Garrett
San Antonio +1' at PHOENIX
Tonight in a near pick spot, I will roll with the Spurs over the Suns.
Phoenix sports just a 6-14 spread mark at home this year, and overall, the Suns are a money-burning 15-27-1 against the math.
San Antonio is 13-7 straight up on the road this year, and 11-9 against the spread on the highway, and they did win as the road dog in Phoenix on Christmas day on a last second buzzer-beater 3-ball by Roger Mason.
The road dog has won outright in both series meetings this year, and is on a 6-2-1 spread run the last 9 series meetings, playoffs included.
Phoenix has been on the road their last 6 games, and it is always tough playing back at home after a prolonged road swing.
Expect that to be the case tonight, as San Antonio beats back Phoenix on their home hardwood.
4♦ SAN ANTONIO
Bobby Maxwell
Michigan State -6' at IOWA
Had a winner for the fifth straight day on Wednesday with the Nets at home against the Raptors. Today we've got another one for you, this time on the college hardwood as we play Michigan State at Iowa in a Big Ten showdown.
Michigan State is a perfect 6-0 on the road and we don't see them having any trouble with Iowa tonight in Big Ten action.
The Spartans are coming in off a 78-67 road win at Ohio State on Sunday, cashing as a three-point favorite. They are 4-0-1 in their last five roadies dating back to Dec. 20, and these haven't been easy places to play, including wins at Texas, Northwestern, Penn State and Ohio State.
On the opposite side, Iowa has dropped four of its last five overall and the Hawkeyes have already lost at home to Minnesota and held on for a 73-69 overtime win over Wisconsin. They are just 1-2 ATS at home in Big Ten action. They lost at Penn State on Saturday 63-59 as six-point underdogs and got the cash, but they are just 2-4 ATS in their last six overall and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games.
The Spartans have got some payback on their minds when they visit the Hawkeyes tonight after last season's humiliating 43-36 loss in Iowa last week as 10-point favorites.
Let's go with the much better team in this matchup and play Michigan State.
3♦ MICHIGAN STATE
Washington -2 at ARIZONA
We've got a Pac-10 winner for you tonight as we go with Washington on the road, visiting Tucson to take on Arizona.
All the talk all week in Tucson has been about star Chase Budinger getting stomped in face in the matchup with Houston on Saturday. But has this team been busy talking about that and not preparing for a damn good Washington team that comes to town tonight?
We think Washington is the much better team anyway and now with a distraction on the Arizona side, this is a no-brainer to play the Huskies.
Arizona has lost three of four overall (2-2 ATS) and they just don't have the offense to be a real threat to the Huskies tonight, averaging just 66.2 points a game over the last five while Washington has averaged 83.6 in its last five.
Washington has won four in a row, including a sweep of the Southern California schools last weekend. They beat UCLA 86-75 as a two-point favorite on Saturday to put them in sole possession of first place in the Pac-10.
The Huskies are 11-5-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings with Arizona and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 visits to Tucson. We like the way this Washington team is coming along and expect them to deliver a 10-point win in Tucson tonight. Play the Huskies.
2♦ WASHINGTON
Michael Cannon
California +12 at UCLA
Take the points with California tonight on the road against Ucla.
This line is way over inflated in my opinion. I understand Ucla is an elite program, but this team isn’t as dominant as past editions.
Besides, Cal has traditionally played the Bruins tough over the years, so why would anything change tonight against a Ucla team that hasn’t dominated the opposition like it used to?
Cal halted a two-game losing streak with a 76-69 win over Oregon on Saturday. The last five games they’ve played were decided by seven points or less.
The Golden Bears are on a 4-1 ATS run in their last five trips to Pauley and the road team is on a 4-0 ATS run in this series.
Ucla is on a 1-6 ATS slide at home against teams with a winning road record.
Take the points with Cal as they stay within the number on the road.
4♦ CALIFORNIA
St. Mary's at GONZAGA -7'
Take Gonzaga minus the points at home tonight against St. Mary’s.
I know the Gaels are playing good basketball right now, but I don’t see them staying within this number against a red-hot Bulldogs team.
Gonzaga has won six straight games, going 4-2 ATS. Over the last five games, which have all come against conference opponents, the Bulldogs have outscored the opposition by 28 ppg.
These two schools split last year’s meetings SU and ATS, with Gonzaga winning 88-76 at home as a seven-point chalk.
The home team is on a 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS run in this series, and the chalk is 5-2 ATS in the last seven.
Take Gonzaga minus the points as they grab the home win and cover.
2♦ GONZAGA
Sports Gambling Hotline
California +12 at UCLA
Cal has certainly cooled off a little with losses in 2 of their last 3, but to give this team a dozen points in Westwood is just ridiculous.
UCLA is in no condition to cover this big impost, as Ben Howland's team has dropped 2 of their last 3 games, and have failed in all 3 against the spread. Worse still is the way the Bruins have been losing, as they have blown leads against both Arizona State, and Washington in their 2 losses, and barely got by an offensively-challenged Washington State team in the game in between the losses.
For the year, the Uclans are just 4-6 against the spread at home, while the Golden Bears come into this one with a 4-3 straight up, and against the spread mark on the road, and for the year Cal is 11-5 against the spread.
The Bruins have bested the Bears the last 3 times the schools have met, and while that streak may move to 4 in a row straight up, we highly doubt the margin of victory tonight is going to come by much more than 6-points.
Play on California in the underdog role tonight.
3♦ CALIFORNIA
Doc's Sports.
Take Under 5 ½ in New Jersey @ Boston
Both teams play strong defense and we expect this to be a 3-2 game and thus we will not worry about who wins it and just collect with the under. The Bruins continue to be the best team in the eastern conference and this will be the second of a three game home stand at the Garden. They have allowed two goals or less in six of their last nine games and expect that trend to continue on Thursday. The Devils have allowed just six goals in their last five games and are always one of the strongest defensive teams in the league. Play the under and watch your money grow
Frank Jordan
Saint Marys CA vs. Gonzaga
Play: Gonzaga -8
St. Mary's CA is 18th in the country with wins in 18 of 19 and are a perfect 5-0 in WCC play. Gonzaga also is 5-0 in WCC play, but not as good over all with a 14-4 record which is good enough for 25th in the country. Look for Gonzaga to move to 7-1 at home and win their 15th game of the year beatting the high seed. Play Gonzaga
John Ryan
Saint Marys CA vs. Gonzaga
Play: Gonzaga -8
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Gonzaga hosting St. Mary’s slated to start at 11:00 EST. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 27-5 ATS for 84% since 1997. Play on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points after a win by 15 points or more facing an opponent after 3 straight wins by 15 points or more. This system has also posted a 7-1 ATS mark for 88% over the past 3 seasons. In their last game Gonzaga defeated Loyola Marymount by 33 points installed as a 28.5 point favorite. St. Mary’s has defeated three straight opponents by 15 or more points. They defeated Loyola Marymount 78-53, Pepperdine 96-46 and San Diego 65-42. Based on the AiS, turnovers will be a significant factor in this game. AiS shows a 90% probability that Gonzaga will commit 3 to 7 fewer turnovers and in past games when this has occurred they are a robust 21-6 ATS over the past 3 seasons. Take Gonzaga.
Big Al Mcmordie
San Antonio Spurs at Phoenix Suns
Prediction: Phoenix Suns
At 10:35 pm, our member selection is on the Phoenix Suns minus the points over San Antonio. These two teams met on Christmas Day and newcomer Roger Mason, Jr. was the hero for the Spurs as he hit a 3-point field goal as the buzzer sounded to give San Antonio a 1-point victory. That was just another painful loss in a long line of painful losses suffered by the Suns against the Spurs. But there was some positives to be taken from that loss. First, Phoenix had its way with the Spurs inside the paint, as San Antonio was unable to contain the Suns' duo of Shaquille O'Neal and Amare Stoudemire. And the Suns also played great defense, save for the final play when Jason Richardson inexplicably left Mason open (inexplicable because Mason is one of the league's best 3-point shooter this season). But with revenge on its mind, I look for Phoenix to eliminate its mistakes, and control the interior once again, making it difficult for Spurs guards Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili to penetrate. Take Phoenix.
Jimmy The Moose
Toronto Maple Leafs at Colorado Avalanche
Prediction: Over
The Leafs are coming off a 6-1 beating on Tuesday and that was the second straight game they played the over in. The over is a profitable 4-1 in their last 5 games overall. Toronto has played the over in 8 of their last 10 games vs. Western Conference opponents. In their last 16 games vs. Nortwest opponents the over is 13-3. The over is 11-4 in Colorado's last 15 home games. The Avalanche have played the over in 5 of their last 7 games overall. The over is 7-3 in their last 10 vs. Eastern Conference opponents. Look for a high-scoring game tonight. Play the over.
Jim Feist
ALABAMA / ARKANSAS
Take Under
Looks like a defensive game out of the SEC. Alabama is on a 2-0 run under the total and is coming off a 61-51 loss to Kentucky, a physical, defensive game under interim head coach Philip Pearson. It's been a tumultuous week as Pearson took over the reins of the Crimson Tide program following head coach Mark Gottfried's resignation on Monday afternoon. While that loss saw the Tide's offense struggle, the defense assembled its best effort of the season, holding UK to 19 first-half points and its second-fewest points this season. Arkansas is on a 3-0 run under the total, including getting just 51 points the last game in a home loss to Auburn. Play Alabama/Arkansas under the total.
LT Profits
Troy +6.0
Two hot clubs square off tonight when the North Texas Mean Green host the Troy Trojans in Sun Belt Conference play, and we will side with the underdog Trojans with these generous points here.
After all, Troy has turned their season around lately, winning four straight games to go over the .500 mark for the season at 11-10 straight up. Even more impressive has been their play on the road, where they have now won three straight after upsetting Arkansas-Little Rock in Little Rock on Saturday 63-58 as eight-point underdogs.
The key to the Troy turnaround has been their shooting, as they have hit 47.6 percent of their shots from the floor while averaging 78.4 points over the last five games. They now rank a respectable 61 in the country in effective field goal percentage at 52.4 percent, and they have hit 51.5 percent of their two-point attempts, ranking 49.
The Trojans also do an excellent job of holding on to the ball, turning the ball over on just 17.9 percent of their possessions to rank 32 in that category, and therein may lie the key to this game. Yes, North Texas has won four consecutive games themselves and they are 12-7 for the season. However, one thing they have not done well is force turnovers.
The Mean Green is only allowing turnovers on 18.1 percent of opponents possessions, so look for Troy to continue the nice offensive flow they have had the last five games again tonight, resulting in a safe cover and quite possibly an outright upset.
Pick: Troy +6