SPORTS ADVISORS
(5) Louisville (18-4, 13-9 ATS) at Notre Dame (12-10, 4-12 ATS)
Two teams headed in completely opposite directions square off when Louisville travels to the Joyce Center to take on Notre Dame.
The Fighting Irish got belted at UCLA on Saturday, losing 89-63 as an 11½-point underdog for their seventh consecutive SU loss and eighth straight ATS setback. Notre Dame is being outscored by an average of nearly 14 ppg during the seven-game skid (85-71.1), with its closest margin of defeat being a seven-point loss. In the last five games, the Irish have been outshot by seven percentage points (46.2-39.2) and outrebounded by an average of 39.8-33.4.
The Cardinals dropped St. John’s 60-47 as an 11-point road chalk Sunday, bouncing back from their 68-51 setback to No. 1 Connecticut as a 2½-point home chalk on Feb. 2. Louisville is on a 10-1 SU and 8-3 ATS tear, allowing only two opponents to break 70 points in that stretch and holding six teams to 60 points or less. On the road this season, the Cardinals are averaging 67.4 ppg on 42.7 percent shooting, while holding opponents to just 56 ppg on 35.8 percent shooting.
Notre Dame’s losing streak began with an 87-73 overtime loss at Louisville one month ago, ending the Irish’s 3-0 ATS run in this rivalry. The Cardinals have taken three of the last four meetings SU.
The Cardinals, who are 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS in the extremely deep Big East, are on positive pointspread rolls of 22-6-1 on the highway, 38-13-2 in conference play, 4-0 after allowing less than 50 points in a game, 6-1 after a spread-cover, 7-2 after a SU win and 5-2 against winning teams.
On the flip side, the Irish (3-7 SU, 2-8 ATS in the Big East) are in pointspread funks of 0-7 in conference action, 0-6 after a SU loss and 1-4 at home, and their current 0-8 ATS slide has all come against winning teams. Also, Notre Dame has lost consecutive home games after winning its previous 45 in a row at the Joyce Center.
The under is on runs for Louisville of 4-1 on the road against teams with a winning home mark and 54-24-2 versus teams with a home winning percentage above .600, and the under is 5-1 in Notre Dame’s last six at home. Otherwise, though, the over for the Irish is on stretches of 6-2 overall, 20-7 against the Big East and 19-7 against teams with a winning percentage above .600.
ATS ADVANTAGE: LOUISVILLE
(11) UCLA (19-4, 12-10 ATS) at (18) Arizona State (18-5, 12-7 ATS)
Surging UCLA gets back into conference play with a trip to Tempe to take on Arizona State in a battle of ranked Pac-10 teams.
The Bruins pelted Notre Dame 89-63 Saturday as an 11½-point chalk to post their fourth straight win and cover, further shaking off a previous three-game ATS skid (1-2 SU). During its four-game run, UCLA has outscored opponents by 23 ppg (86-63). However, all four games were at Pauley Pavilion, and on the road this season, the Bruins are outscoring opponents by less than two buckets per game (69.3-65.5).
The Sun Devils swept a two-game trek to the Northwest last week, beating Oregon 66-57 Thursday and Oregon State 49-38 on Saturday, narrowly covering as an 8½-point favorite in both games. ASU is 6-3 SU and ATS in its last nine games, and defense has been a key, with the Sun Devils allowing no more than 58 points in all six wins and holding three opponents under 50.
The Bruins are 8-2 SU and 6-4 ATS in Pac-10 play, including 4-1 (2-3 ATS) on the road. Arizona State is 7-4 SU and ATS in conference, but only 2-2 SU and ATS in Tempe. In fact, the Sun Devils got swept by Washington State (65-55) and Washington (84-71) in their last two home outings. Also, the SU winner has cashed in all 11 of ASU’s Pac-10 starts this season.
Arizona State stunned UCLA 61-58 in overtime as a six-point pup at Pauley Pavilion last month, halting a two-game SU and ATS uptick by the Bruins in this rivalry. Furthermore, ASU is 5-2 ATS in the last seven contests (all from the underdog role), despite going just 1-6 SU in that span.
The Bruins are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU win of more than 20 points, but they are on pointspread rolls of 36-17-1 on the road, 4-1 after a spread-cover, 5-2 after a SU win and 14-5 on Thursday. The Sun Devils are on positive ATS runs of 5-2 on Thursday, 10-4-1 against the Pac-10 and 9-2 at home against teams with a road winning percentage above .600, but they are also 3-7 ATS in their last 10 starts following a spread-cover.
The over for UCLA is on tears of 6-0 overall (5-0 in the Pac-10), 4-0 after a SU win and 5-0 against teams with a winning percentage above .600. Conversely, the under for Arizona State is on runs of 7-2 overall (all against the Pac-10), 4-1 after a SU win and 8-2 on Thursday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
(19) Gonzaga (17-5, 10-10 ATS) at St. Mary’s (18-4, 10-7-1 ATS)
Gonzaga, coming off a blowout loss on its home floor, heads to Moraga, Calif., for a West Coast Conference clash with St. Mary’s at McKeon Pavilion.
The Bulldogs got hounded by No. 14 Memphis 68-50 Saturday as a four-point home chalk, ending a nine-game winning streak (5-4 ATS) in which Gonzaga scored 83 points or more six times, including cracking 90 in three games. The Zags, who were held to a season-low point total Saturday, have averaged 80.1 ppg on the road this season, while allowing 67.6 ppg on just 36.7 percent shooting from the floor.
The Gaels have dropped three of their last four games (2-2 ATS), including Saturday’s 70-52 upset loss at Santa Clara as a five-point favorite. In its last five games, St. Mary’s is averaging 64.8 ppg – well off its season average of 73.8 – and allowing just a tick less at 64.6, while being outshot 46.1 percent to 44.3 percent. A big reason for the Gaels’ slump is the loss of starting guard Patty Mills (18.7 points per game), who broke his wrist in a 69-62 loss at Gonzaga on Jan. 29.
The Bulldogs sit atop the West Coast Conference standings with an 8-0 record (4-4 ATS), including 3-0 on the highway (2-1 ATS). St. Mary’s started conference play with five straight wins (3-2 ATS) before slumping to 1-3 (2-2 ATS) in its last four. The Gaels have won all four WCC home games (2-2 ATS).
Although Gonzaga beat St. Mary’s two weeks ago, it failed to cover as a 9½-point home chalk, so these rivals have alternated spread-covers over the past five meetings. The home team is on a 4-1 ATS run during this stretch. In fact, the host has won nine of the last 10 meetings between these schools, including the last six in a row.
The Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a double-digit home loss and 4-1 ATS in their last five coming off a pointspread setback, but they are on ATS slides of 2-8 against winning teams and 3-7 on the highway against teams with a winning home record. The Gaels are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 contests against winning teams, but they are on ATS upticks of 4-0 after a non-cover and 6-1 at home versus teams with a road win percentage above .600. Also, they covered in their only game this season as an underdog (at Gonzaga).
The over for Gonzaga is on runs of 4-0 on the road, 4-1 after a SU loss, 8-2 after an ATS setback and 9-4 on the road against teams with a winning home record. Conversely, the under for St. Mary’s is on streaks of 7-2 overall (all in conference play), 5-1 on Thursday and 4-1 at home against teams with a winning road record.
ATS ADVANTAGE: GONZAGA
NBA
Miami (27-24, 23-26-2 ATS) at Chicago (23-29, 25-26-1 ATS)
The struggling Heat travel to the Windy City for a matchup with the streaking Bulls inside the United Center.
Miami has lost five of its last seven SU and ATS, including Tuesday’s 99-82 home loss to the Nuggets as a 1½-point underdog. The Heat have also dropped their last three roadies (1-2 ATS), and they haven’t scored more than 96 points in any of their last four games overall.
Chicago may have finally hit its stride this season, winning five of its last seven overall and going 7-0-1 ATS in its last eight contests. The Bulls earned a 107-102 home win over the Pistons on Tuesday, cashing as three-point favorites. They have scored 100 points or more in six straight and eight of their last 10, and they are averaging 110 ppg and 48 percent shooting in their last five.
The Heat got a 90-77 home win over the Bulls back on Dec. 26, covering as 5½-point favorites. However, the Bulls have won four straight over Miami inside the United Center, including a 99-92 victory a year ago as two-point home pups, and they are 8-2-1 ATS in the last 11 series clashes in Chicago. Lastly, the underdog has a 5-1 ATS edge in the last six meetings.
In addition to going 2-5 ATS in its last seven overall, Miami is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 Thursday games, but the Heat are on positive ATS runs of 5-1 against Central Division squads, 7-2 after getting one day off and 6-2 against teams with a losing record. Chicago is just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 home games, 1-7 ATS in its last eight against Southeast Division teams and 17-37-1 in its last 55 after a straight-up win, but the Bulls are 6-1 ATS in their last seven Thursday games.
The Heat are on “over” streaks of 5-2 overall, 8-2 on the road, 10-1 after a straight-up loss and 4-0 against Central Division teams. Chicago is also riding “over” trends of 5-0 overall, 5-2 at home, 11-5 against the Eastern Conference and 6-2 against Southwest Division squads. In this series, the over is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Chicago, but the under has cashed in four of the last five overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Boston (43-11, 30-24 ATS) at Dallas (31-20, 24-27 ATS)
The Celtics continue their six-game Western Conference road trip with a stop at the American Airlines Arena in Dallas as they face the Mavericks.
Boston opened its trip with Wednesday’s 89-77 victory in New Orleans, cashing as a seven-point road chalk. The Celtics are 19-7 SU on the road this season but just 9-17 ATS, but they have won six in a row on the highway (5-1 ATS).
Dallas comes into this one having won two straight (1-1 ATS) and six of the last seven (5-2 ATS) overall. On Tuesday, the Mavs blew out the Kings 118-100, cashing as 10½-point favorites to run their home winning streak to five (4-1 ATS). Dallas has scored 100 points or more in eight of its last nine and is are averaging 105.8 ppg in its last five while shooting 49.8 percent from the floor.
The Celtics are on a 3-0 SU and ATS roll in this series, including a 124-109 blowout win on Jan. 25 as nine-point home favorites. They have gotten the cash in six of the last seven, and last year they went to Dallas and got a 94-90 win as a 3½-point chalk.
Boston is riding a plethora of positive ATS streaks, including 10-4 overall, 7-1 on the road, 25-12 against Western Conference teams, 11-4 on Thursday and 11-3 against Southwest Division foes. Dallas is just 6-20-1 ATS in its last 27 Thursday contests, but the Mavs are on ATS runs of 5-2 overall, 4-1 at home and 4-1 after a straight-up win.
The Celtics are on “under” stretches of 25-9 on the road, 10-3 on the second night of a back-to-back, 8-3 on Thursdays and 16-5 on the road against teams with a winning home record, however the over is 5-1 in their last six overall and 5-1 in their last six against Western Conference competition. The Mavericks have stayed below the total in 11 of their last 15 against the Atlantic Division and six of their last eight against teams with a winning record, but they are on “over” streaks of 7-3 overall, 5-1 at home and 5-1 after they get one day off. In this series, the over is 6-2 in the last eight meetings overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
James Patrick Sports
Trailblazers vs. Warriors
Portland is just 1-6 ATS in Oakland and this series has seen the home team cash in 5 of 6 contests. Our Thursday selection in NBA action is Golden State Warriors.
Marc Lawrence
Play On: St. Joseph's
Two members of the Philly 5 hook up tonight in Alumni Memorial Fieldhouse and its been Phil Martelli and company that have had their way with this particular cross-town rivalry. Before a pair of late season March losses, the second of which knocked them out of the A-10 tourney, the Hawks dominated this series to the tune of 12-1 SU and 10-3 ATS. There is no reason to think the dominance wont continue. Theyve won 5 of 6 on this floor and bring a lofty 9-3 ATS mark with 3 or more days of rest with conference tourney revenge into tonights fray. Temple enters this contest off a same season revenge win over Rhode Island and their feeble 2-11 ATS record versus .500 or greater opponents after facing the Rams clearly has us siding with a Hawks squad swooping in for revenge. Owls go to sleep early tonight.
Dave Cokin
Fresno State @ Louisiana Tech
Play: Louisiana Tech -3'
Fresno State played very well last game as they got out to a huge early lead and coasted past Boise State. But the Bulldogs haven't shown much ability to maintain any positive momentum and they're still playing shorthanded. Given their tendencies, this could be a tough trip for Fresno as they make the long trek to Louisiana Tech. The host Bulldogs are definitely not a blowout type of team, so there's always a risk laying a number with this team. But they've got revenge on their minds from an earlier 63-46 loss at Fresno, and La Tech has actually been pretty solid in this scenario. I think the situation is favorable enough to warrant a lean to Louisiana Tech minus the moderate points.
Brad Diamond Sports
Play on: Louisville over Notre Dame
In charting the ND offense this season it appears they rotate their attack sets all around the big guy (Mr. H). So, when he is not in the lineup, the scoring continuity breaks down. Also, love the Cards defense here that should take the crowd out of the game fairly early. Technically, Irish 0-8 ATS L8 games and a horrid 0-7 ATS versus the Big East, not good!
Jeff Benton
Complimentary Selection
How about that easy 5♦ free-play winner with North Carolina over Duke on Wednesday? Told you I’d get back on track after a three-day lull, and I’m now 52-36 with freebies over the last 88 days. For Thursday, we’ll move to the NBA and play the Mavericks plus the points against Boston.
This is the last game for both teams before the All-Star break, and while this is often a “throw-away” game for some clubs, there’s no chance that Dallas treats this contest in such a manner. For one thing, the Mavericks are in the thick of the playoff chase in the Western Conference and need every win they can get. Besides that, this is a big-time payback game for Dallas.
It was 2½ weeks ago that the Mavs went to Boston and got blitzed by the Celtics 124-100 as a nine-point underdog. Not to make excuses, because there’s no excuse for losing by 24 points in the NBA, but that game tipped off early (1 p.m. Eastern), and Dallas was wrapping up a four-game Eastern Conference road trip. Since that defeat, the Mavs have won six of their last seven games, and most importantly from our angle, they’re finally starting to cover pointspreads, going 6-3 ATS in their last nine games and 8-4 ATS in their last 12. In addition, with Tuesday’s 118-100 rout of Sacramento as a 10½-point home favorite, the Mavs are now riding a five-game home winning streak (4-1 ATS), and they’re 10-1 SU in their last 11 at home.
Even though Dallas got crushed in Boston, it played the defending champs very tough a year ago, losing by six points on the road and by four points at home. Prior to three most recent defeats to the Celtics, the Mavs had won seven straight and 13 of 14 in this rivalry.
Finally, while the Celtics were playing the Hornets in New Orleans last night, Dallas was enjoying a day off. That’s a big deal, because Boston hasn’t been a very good bet in back-to-back spots this season (5-7 ATS). And with several Celtics headed to the All-Star game after this game, I don’t expect Boston’s hunger to come close to matching that of Dallas. Give me the points with the home team.
3♦ DALLAS MAVERICKS
Matt Rivers
For Thursday take Gonzaga on the road.
No doubt the Zags were just physically pummeled against the Memphis Tigers. John Calipari's team went out West and absolutely took Mark Few's team behind the woodshed in the beating. But with Patty Mills out I just do not see the struggling Gaels of St. Mary's able to compete here.
Just a few weeks ago the Bulldogs hosted this matchup and looked like the weaker team. They then got extremely lucky with Mills getting injured leading them to the comeback win. Things today just will not be nearly as tough as the Gaels have pretty much quit without their leader. It was always known that Randy Bennett's team went as Mills went but I'm not so sure that anybody realized this to literally be the case. Yes they did outclass a bad San Francisco in that second full game without their star but terrible outings against both Santa Clara and Portland tell me enough that they just should not compete here against the well superior Zags.
Road chalks in rivalry games are not generally the formula for success but without Mills i just do not see this game being close and will take my chances on a solid bounceback effort from Few's team.
Karl Garrett
Boston at DALLAS +4
G-Man with a Wednesday winner on Georgia Tech plus the points to run my comp play record to 9-2 the last 11 days, 14-4 overall the last 18 days!
Boston just played at New Orleans last night, while Dallas was idle, and in town, as the Mavericks will go to the All-Star break playing their third in a row at home.
Dallas has been making some noise of late, winning 2 straight, and 6 of their last 7 since their Sunday afternoon nationally televised humiliation in Beantown 124-100 nack on January 25th.
G-Man expects the Mavericks to bring a little added effort to the table tonight, as they look for a measue of revenge against the Celts.
Boston has definitely turned the tide in this once one-sided rivalry, as the C's have taken the 3 both straight up, and against the spread.
Expect that to change tonight, at least against the line, as it is not too often you catch Dallas as a home dog of more than a basket.
Have to take the points with the Mavs tonight.
2♦ DALLAS
Bobby Maxwell
Portland +2 at GOLDEN STATE
We handed you two FREE winners on Wednesday with UConn on the college hardwood and the Cavaliers on the pro hardwood. Tonight we'll give you another one with the Blazers as they take on Golden State in Oakland.
The Blazers have won two in a row and seven of nine (6-3 ATS) overall. They crushed Oklahoma City on Wednesday after beating the Knicks on Sunday. On the opposite side, the Warriors are coming off one of the most impressive performances of the year when they beat the Knicks 144-127 on Tuesday as four-point favorites.
Yes, the Warriors put up a lot of points, but they also give up the most of any team in the NBA at 111.3 per contest, and they've actually been worse than that lately, allowing 112 per game in the last five and 47.7 percent shooting.
Portland is going to bring it's ability to score tonight as they have a very talented starting five and a deep bench. On defense, the Blazers allow just 95.2 per game and they know how to shut down a team. Last time these two met, the Blazers got a 113-100 win as 12-point chalk.
Portland is on ATS runs of 5-1 after a spread-cover, 10-5 against teams with a losing record and an amazing 12-5 on the second night of a back-to-back. These young guns have no problem with a quick turnaround. Play Portland.
4♦ PORTLAND
Sports Gambling Hotline
Louisville -3 at NOTRE DAME
Comp play winner on North Carolina last night as we are now 6-1-2 the last 9 days with our comp plays!
You could describe Notre Dame these days in the immortal words of rock's Top Petty, "Free-Fallin'"!
The Irish enter this Thursday contest having lost 7 in a row straight up, 8 in a row against the spread, and 9 of their last 10 overall against the spread. Notre Dame's Big Dance dreams have been effectively shattered barring a miracle in the Big East tournament next month in New York City.
That being the case, we have no issue laying a few points on the road with a Louisville team that is fresh off a road win, and cover at St. John's to improve to 6-1 away from home this year, and 5-2 against the spread away from home this season.
The Cardinals downed the Irish by 14 in overtime back on January 12th, and that is the date the ND free-fall started, as the Irish haven't won since.
Louisville has won 3 of the 4 series meetings dating back to 2006, and we expect them to handle matters once again in South Bend against an Irish team that can't seem to but a win these days.
Play on the Cards!
4♦ LOUISVILLE
Doc's Sports.
Take Under 5 ½ in Minnesota @ Detroit
The Wild are still one of the best defensive teams in the league and expect them to have tired legs playing the second of back-2-back games. Not counting Wednesday’s game, they have went under tonight’s posted number in three straight games and they will have problems getting two goals against the strong defensive team of Detroit. We will not worry if Detroit can cover this big number and just collect with the under.
JIM FEIST
UCLA / ARIZONA STATE
Take Under
UCLA has played a string of high scoring games because they've been playing some uptempo teams. But don't be fooled: This is still a strong defensive team. The 15th-ranked Bruins are off an 89-63 victory over Notre Dame. UCLA held Notre Dame to less than 40% shooting and sent Luke Harangody to the bench for the final minutes with five points. That would be the same Harangody who began the game as one of the top scorers in in the nation. "They just played defense for 40 minutes and just took it away from us," Mike Brey said. They take on an Arizona State team that prefers a slow-down pace, one scoring 49, 66, 71, 55 and 53 points the last 5 games. Arizona State is on a 6-1 run under the total. Look for a low scoring, defensive duel. Play UCLA/Arizona State Under the total.
VEGAS EXPERTS
Portland Trail Blazers at Golden State Warriors
In the latest issue of the My EDGE Newsletter, we noted that we liked the Warriors in this matchup as a home underdog, which is where they opened. UPDATE: We still like them as a favorite as Portland is still unrested and just 5-9 ATS as a road underdog this season. Golden State has beaten Portland the last four times the two teams have played in Oakland.
Play on: Golden State
Bob Harvey
UCLA -1 over Arizona State
Call it revenge or call it payback. Either way UCLA is out to right a wrong against Arizona State. The Sun Devils rolled into Pauley Pavillion less than a month ago and hung a 61-58 overtime loss on the Bruins. Tonight you can expect another low-scoring affair as Ben Howland’s club ratchets up the defensive intensity against ASU.
The Bruins enter tonight’s game with a five-game winning streak and a 4-0 ATS run. It’s worth noting as well is the OVER has cashed in UCLA’s last six games. However those total toppers have come against teams that play more of an up-tempo style. The Sun Devils do not fit into that category as evidenced by one of the worst games of this, or any college basketball season.
Arizona State is coming off a 49-38 win over Oregon State in a contest as dull as the day is long. If ASU’s effort against the Beavers is any indication, than I’m guessing the Sun Devils “peaked” against UCLA.
Only once since 1981 have the Sun Devils swept the Bruins in a season series. UCLA had won eight straight series meetings before last month’s stunner in Westwood. However, the Bruins look like a different team since that loss and Alfred Aboya might be a big reason why. He’s become a force inside and is turning in quality minutes after being MIA for most of the season.
I like UCLA to win and I like this game to go UNDER. I’m not much of a parlay or teaser guy, but you might consider one or both tonight. This one won’t be pretty but UCLA will get the job done.
Dennis Macklin
Wis-Milwaukee at Cleveland State
Prediction: Cleveland State
This is a pretty big number to lay but this is a pretty good spot for the Cleveland State Vikings. All five CSU Horizon home wins are by a combined 86 (all 9+) points while two of the three Panther road losses have come by DDs. Vikes have same season payback losing at UWM 77-75 Jan 17th and UWM shooting less than 40% on the year and on the road. Cleveland State by 16.