SPORTS ADVISORS
Minnesota (19-6, 9-10-1 ATS) at Michigan (16-10, 11-9-1 ATS)
Two teams very much in need of wins with March approaching get together when Minnesota travels to Ann Arbor for a Big Ten battle with Michigan.
The Gophers fell to Penn State 68-63 Saturday as a 2½-point road underdog and are now 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS in their last four contests, with all three SU losses coming on the road. Minnesota has put up an average of 68.3 ppg this season, about five points better than its opponents (63.5). But in their past five outings, the Gophers are averaging just 57.8 ppg and giving up 59.6, including a 76-47 meltdown at Michigan State catching 8½ points.
The Wolverines edged Northwestern 70-67 Sunday in overtime as a four-point underdog, ending a 1-4 SU (2-3 ATS) skid. Like Minnesota, Michigan’s numbers have been down significantly in recent contests. The Wolverines average 66.9 ppg on the year, but they’ve scored 58 points or less in six of their last 10 games, including a dismal offensive effort in last week’s 54-42 home loss to Michigan State as a four-point pup.
Minnesota won and covered in both of last season’s meetings with Michigan, including a 77-65 road win as a three-point favorite. In fact, the favorite is on a 4-0 ATS surge in this rivalry.
Minnesota is 7-6 SU and 5-8 ATS in the Big Ten this season, going 3-4 SU and 2-5 ATS on the road. Michigan is 6-7 SU and 4-8 ATS in conference action, including 4-3 SU and ATS at home, with the winner cashing in all seven of those home outings.
The Gophers are on a 5-2 ATS uptick in Thursday games, but the ATS trends spiral downward from there. Along with their current 0-4 ATS skid (all in the Big Ten), the Gophers are on pointspread slides of 0-5 on the road, 0-4 after a SU loss, 1-5 after a non-cover and 1-5 against winning teams. The Wolverines are on pointspread runs of 4-1 on Thursday and 8-3 in Ann Arbor, but they are just 3-6 ATS in their last nine Big Ten games.
The under for Minnesota is on tears of 4-1 overall, 6-1 against winning teams, 9-2 after a SU loss and 9-3 on Thursday, and the under for Michigan is on rolls of 5-1 overall, 5-0 on Thursday, 5-0 against teams with a winning percentage above .600, 4-1 at home and 17-6-1 in Big Ten action. In addition, in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in seven of the last nine meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
(22) Washington (19-6, 15-8 ATS) at (20) UCLA (19-6, 12-12 ATS)
Washington aims to take command of the Pac-10 race when it visits Pauley Pavilion to face UCLA, which needs a win to stay firmly in the hunt for its fourth consecutive regular-season conference title.
The Huskies rolled to a pair of home wins last week, whipping Oregon State 79-60 as a 16½-point chalk last Thursday and following up with Saturday’s 103-84 rout of Oregon laying 16 points on Saturday. Washington, which has won and covered three in a row and is 4-1 SU and ATS in its last five starts, has averaged 76.9 ppg on the road this year (below its season average of 80.4), while allowing 73.1 ppg (slightly above its season average of 69.8).
The Bruins took the collar in the desert Southwest last weekend, losing to Arizona State 74-67 Thursday as a 1½-point chalk, then tumbling to Arizona 84-72 as a five-point favorite. However, UCLA has had no such troubles at home lately, going 4-0 SU and ATS in its last four games at Pauley and winning those contests by an average of more than 22 ppg (85.8-63), holding all four opponents to 66 points or less. In fact, UCLA is 14-1 in its arena, with 13 of those victories being by 15 points or more.
Washington has cashed in the last four meetings in this rivalry, going 3-1 SU, including an 86-75 home rout as a two-point chalk last month. The host, though, has won six consecutive series clashes and is 4-1 ATS in the last five.
The Huskies are 10-3 SU and 8-5 ATS in Pac-10 play this season, including 5-2 SU and ATS on the road. The Bruins are 8-4 SU and 6-6 ATS in conference, going 4-1 SU and ATS at home.
The Huskies are on pointspread rolls of 6-2 on the highway, 4-0 as a road underdog and 8-3 on the road against teams with a winning home record, but they are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight roadies catching seven to 12½ points. The Bruins are on ATS streaks of 6-0 at home laying 7 to 12½ points, 14-6 on Thursday and 18-8 coming off a pointspread setback.
The under is 6-2 in the last eight meetings between these two, and the under is on 6-2 rolls for both teams against opponents with a winning record. However, the over for Washington is on tears of 11-1 overall, 9-0 after a SU win, 6-0 on Thursday, 5-1 on the road and 19-7 against the Pac-10. Additionally, the over has hit in eight straight games for UCLA and is on further runs for the Bruins of 4-0 at home, 7-0 in Pac-10 play, 7-0 as a favorite, 7-0 against teams with a winning percentage above .600, and 5-0 on Thursday and 4-0 at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
NBA
San Antonio (35-17, 25-25-2 ATS) at Detroit (27-25, 20-32 ATS)
The struggling Pistons try to right the ship when they host the Spurs, who resume an eight-game road trip with a stop at The Palace of Auburn Hills.
Detroit returned from the All-Star break Tuesday night and suffered its fourth consecutive SU and ATS loss, a 92-86 home setback to Milwaukee as a 6½-point chalk. The Pistons are now 3-8 SU and 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games, including 1-7 SU and 0-8 ATS at home. Detroit’s normally stout defense has been nonexistent of late, allowing four of the last five opponents to score 99 points or more, allowing an average of 105.2 ppg during this stretch.
The Spurs also came out of the break Tuesday and tumbled in a 112-107 overtime setback to the Knicks as a four-point road favorite, their second consecutive SU and ATS loss, following a 6-1 SU and 6-0-1 ATS surge. San Antonio has scored 105 points or more in seven of its last nine games, while allowing 99 or more six times during this stretch.
The SU winner is 8-1-1 ATS in the Spurs’ last 10 games and 18-1 ATS in Detroit’s last 19.
Detroit has cashed in the last four clashes in this rivalry, winning the last three games SU, including an 89-77 road victory in December as a 5½-point pup. The visitor is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings, but the Pistons have cashed in six of the last eight battles in Detroit.
The Pistons are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games against Southwest Division foes, but they are otherwise on pointspread slides of 7-22 at home (0-8 in the last eight), 0-5 playing on one day’s rest, 0-9 against winning teams, 5-16 after a SU loss and 2-6 against the Western Conference. The Spurs are just 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 games against the Eastern Conference, but they are on pointspread upswings of 6-2-1 overall, 5-2-1 on the road, 5-0 against winning teams and 4-0-1 on one day’s rest.
The over for San Antonio is on rolls of 8-1 overall and 7-1 on the road, and the over has hit in five of the Pistons’ last six overall. However, the under for the Spurs is on runs of 7-1 against winning teams and 7-1 against the Central Division, and the under for Detroit is on stretches of 7-1 against winning teams, 16-5-1 against the Southwest Division and 17-8-1 after a SU loss. Finally, the total has stayed low in seven of the last eight meetings between these two teams, including three straight at The Palace.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN ANTONIO
Boston (44-11, 31-24 ATS) at Utah (31-23, 28-26 ATS)
The Celtics, who resume a lengthy Western Conference road trip after enjoying a week off, travel to EnergySolutions Arena for a meeting with the Jazz.
Boston opened its six-game swing with back-to-back wins at New Orleans and Dallas, topping the Hornets 89-77 as a seven-point chalk on Feb. 11, then beating the Mavericks 99-92 laying 3½ points last Thursday. The Celts are on a 15-2 SU tear (12-5 ATS), and in their last five games, they’re racking up an average of 101.2 points – just below their season average of 101.3 – while allowing 96.8 ppg. In fact, Boston has scored 99 points or more in six of its last seven outings and 12 of its last 16.
Utah pounded Memphis 117-99 Tuesday night as a 10½-point home chalk to move to 5-1 SU and ATS in its last six games, cracking 100 points in all five of those wins. Like Boston, the Jazz are clicking offensively, scoring 100 points or more in eight of their last nine games, including topping 110 points in four of their last five. However, Utah is also surrendering 107.8 ppg in its last four.
Utah is on a 4-1 ATS (3-2 SU) run in this rivalry, narrowly covering as a 9½-point pup in a 100-91 loss in Beantown in December. The visitor is on a 5-1 ATS roll, and Boston is 5-1 ATS in the last six clashes in Salt Lake City.
The Celtics are in a 1-4 ATS rut in their last five games following a SU win, but they are on positive pointspread streaks of 11-4 overall, 8-1 on the highway, 8-2 after a spread-cover, 7-2 against winning teams and 26-12 against the West. The Jazz are a lengthy 56-27-2 ATS in their last 85 home games and are on additional ATS upticks of 4-0 against the Atlantic Division and 11-5 going on one day of rest, but they are also 2-6 ATS in their last eight against winning teams.
For Boston, the under is on stretches of 26-9 on the highway and 7-1-1 against the Northwest Division, and the under for Utah is on a 6-1-1 run against the Atlantic Division. But the over the Celts is on streaks of 5-2 overall, 4-1 after a SU win and 5-2 against the West, and the over for Utah is on tears of 17-6 overall, 7-2 at home, 4-1 against the East and 8-3 against teams with a winning percentage above .600.
Furthermore, these squads have cleared the posted price in five of their last six matchups in Utah, and the over is 12-4-1 in the last 17 meetings overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Marc Lawrence
Play On: Stanford
Its been a pretty good couple of months for Oregon State 1st-year head coach Craig Robinson. His 10-12 Beavers have already won more games than last seasons 6-win squad, he handed Stanford their 2nd worst spread loss at home since the 90's and he has the President as a brother-in-law! Unfortunately for Robinson, not even a presidential pardon is going to keep the Cardinal from exacting some revenge tonight at Gill Coliseum. Stanford has had their way in this series, winning 17 of the last 19 SU and has won the money in each of their last 9 trips to Corvallis. The Beavers have not fared as a conference home dog when facing an opponent with same season double-digit loss revenge, posting a 2-8 SU and 3-7 ATS record, plus theyve only covered 8 of 51 times when they lose SU as PAC 10 home dogs. With that we'll lay the points with the Cardinal here tonight.
James Patrick
Weber State vs. Montana
Our Thursday selection in College Basketball action is Weber State Wildcats who have cashed in 42 of 62 overall and 13-3 ATS in their last 16 meetings with the Grizzlies.
Dave Cokin
South Alabama @ Middle Tennessee
Play: Middle Tennessee -5
Middle Tennessee has been performing below expectations, but I think the Blue Raiders might be right tonight. There are a couple of really solid situational angles than come into play here, plus South Alabama has had a terrible time with this team recently, including the earlier 82-67 loss absorbed at home by the Jaguars. I can't make too strong a case here for MTSU off their recent form, and the number came a shade higher than I would have liked. Nevertheless, I see the Middle Tennessee winning and I'll lean the Blue Raiders way as home chalk tonight.
Jim Feist
Washington State / USC
Take Under
USC's offense struggled the last three games, all on the road. Coming home should mean a strong defensive effort, where they are 13-1. There's also a sense of urgency, as USC has six games remaining and is 1 1/2 games behind fifth-place Arizona and two behind California and UCLA. To make the NCAA tournament, USC might need to finish in the top five or win the conference tournament. Coach Tim Floyd said, "We have to win our four home games, find a way to get that done, then try to steal one on the road." They will bring up the defensive intensity, as will Washington State, a team allows 52.8 ppg. The Cougars are tops in the Pac 10 in points allowed, while USC is 4th. Look for a low scoring, defensive tilt. Play Washington State/USC under the total.
Jimmy The Moose
Carolina Hurricanes at New York Islanders
Prediction: Carolina Hurricanes
Both team's struggling coming into this one. The Hurricanes have lost 3 of their last 4 games while the Islanders have lost 6 of their last 7. The Islanders played and lost to the Rangers last night. Carolina has won 5 of their last 7 road games. In their last 8 road games vs. a team with a losing home record they are 6-2. NY is 16-42 in their last 58 games vs. Eastern Conference opponents. In their last 71 games overall the Islanders are 20-51. The Islanders are 2-5 in the last 7 meetings. Carolina is 14-6 in their last 20 trips to the Island. Play on the Carolina Hurricanes -.
Carlo Campanella
Game: San Antonio Spurs at Detroit Pistons
Prediction: San Antonio Spurs
After opening the season with a solid 21-11 record, Detroit has fallen into a major slump, losing 14 of their last 20 games! They now stand at 27-25 following the All-Star break and they're playing even worse basketball against good teams, as we find them at a horrible 1-8 SU & 2-7 ATS in the Dog role while losing those games outright by an average of 8.3 points per game during their last 20 games! They now host a San Antonio squad that's playing their best basketball of the season right now, owning a 20-7 SU record during their last 27 games. They returned from the All-Star break with a little rusty, losing 107-112 at New York, but expect them to rebound here.
7* Play On San Antonio
Scott Spreitzer
GArkansas State at New Orleans
Prediction: New Orleans
The Privateers will host a team they can truly exploit tonight. Arkansas State has hit tough times, losing five in a row SU and six in a row ATS. The Red Wolves are just 4-9 SU away from home where the offense takes a dive. ASU scores just 62.7 ppg on the road on 41% shooting. They don't have a deep perimeter game, making just five treys per night, and they're a poor FT shooting team. Toss in a weak assist-turnover mark on the road, and you can see why New Orleans is in a great spot. The Wolves have won four of the last five in this series, but only one of those five matchups took place in New Orleans (Dec. '07). The Privateers won that battle, 84-78. Arkansas State has become a February fade over the last two seasons, covering just two of their last 13. Look for New Orleans to take advantage of a fading Red Wolves' team with a big win on Thursday night.
Big Al Mcmordie
Louisiana Lafayette at Denver
Prediction: Denver
Well, if it ain't broke, don't fix it. And that's how I approach the Denver Pioneers at home. Everyone knows that Denver hasn't won a road game in three seasons (the worst such active streak in College Basketball), but at home, it's a different story. Denver's 18-4 straight-up its last 22 at home and, even more impressively, is 27-4 ATS at home its last 31 vs. a foe off a straight-up win. With Lafayette in off a 54-50 triumph over Arkansas State, we'll play on the Pioneers once again to get the gold at home. Lay the points.
Jeff Benton
For Thursday’s freebie in college basketball, we’ll take Xavier on the road at Charlotte in Atlantic 10 Conference action.
Charlotte can certainly be frisky at home – just ask Dayton, the second-place team in the A-10 which lost 79-66 as a two-point road favorite earlier this month – and obviously the 49ers’ crowd is going to be worked up in a frenzy with this being the most high-profile team to visit Halton Arena all season. But man for man, this is a big-time mismatch. You’ve got the Musketeers at 21-4 on the season, including 9-2 in conference and 9-3 in road/neutral-site games, while Charlotte is 9-15 overall (4-9 in the last 13), including 3-7 in the Atlantic 10 and just 7-5 at home.
During its 4-9 slump that encompasses all of 2009, Charlotte is 2-9-1 ATS, and though it is coming off Saturday’s 69-51 home rout of George Washington, it hasn’t won or covered back-to-back games even once during this 13-game stretch. Meanwhile, after consecutive road losses to Duquesne and Dayton – which came on the heels of an 11-game winning streak (8-1-1 ATS) – Xavier came out Saturday and humiliated Fordham 88-53, covering easily as a 27½-point home favorite, and I have little doubt that the Musketeers will be hungry for another statement victory tonight.
Xavier has won all five meetings in this rivalry since the 49ers joined the A-10 in 2006, going 4-1 ATS (all as a favorite). That includes a 69-47 dismantling as a 16-point home chalk back on Jan. 28. The Musketeers are also 7-2 ATS in their last nine road games, 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 as a favorite and 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games on Thursday, while Charlotte is 1-6 ATS in its last seven as an underdog and, astonishingly, just 1-10-1 ATS in its last 12 games against teams with a winning record. No-brainer here, gents. Lay the chalk with confidence.
3♦ XAVIER
Matt Rivers
For Thursday take the Spurs in MoTown.
Too many positives here to not take my chances with the visitors from San Antonio.
For one, the Pistons stink! These guys flat out stink! Over the past six or so weeks Detroit has been an absolute dog with fleas and despite still having a ton of talent this squad has imploded pretty much after getting Allen Iverson. I guess Chauncey Billups really was the glue for this team as these guys have lost 13 of their last 19 games after starting the season at 21-11.
The Spurs just fell in New York to the Knicks. That was a bad loss indeed and I have no qualms at all with a professional team like San Antonio in this spot as they will respond in a positive way a lot more than they won't. Greg Popovich is a phenomenal coach who will more than have his guys ready to play whereas I'm really not so sure when and if the Pistons will repond anymore.
Manu Ginibili may not play today and that could make the three headed monster into a two headed monster but I will definitely take my chances even if this is the case. Tim Duncan and Tony Parker are phenomenal and this team should be just fine. They won in Boston a few weeks ago and may be aging a bit but are still lethal and a team that is no joke.
Detroit is a joke, period!
Bobby Maxwell
Minnesota at MICHIGAN -3'
Tonight we've got another comp play with Michigan hosting Minnesota.
Michigan is a pretty mediocre team when it comes down to it, but at home the Wolverines have been tough, going 12-3 overall and 8-3 ATS. So we'll lay the small chalk with them and play team tonight against Minnesota.
The Gophers have lost three of four overall and failed to cover the line in seven of their last eight, including at Penn State on Saturday, losing 68-63 as 2 1/2-point underdogs. They've won just once in their last five roadies and even in that one they struggled with a lowly Indiana team 67-63 and failing to cover as a nine-point favorite.
Michigan won Sunday at Northwestern 70-67 in overtime and they've covered in three of their last four games with the only non-cover being a hard-fought 54-42 loss to Michigan State as four-point home 'dogs.
The Wolverines are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 as a favorite and 4-1 in their last five Thursday games. In this rivalry, the favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings and we fully expect to see Michigan win this one by 10.
Play Michigan tonight at home.
3♦ MICHIGAN
Sports Gambling Hotline
Wisconsin -10 at INDIANA
10-4-2 is our comp play run the last 16 days.
We have to lay it with the Badgers tonight as they pay a visit on their conference rival Indiana.
Wisconsin appears to have shaken off their funk, as Bo Ryan's team has won their last 4, covering in 3 of those 4.
Indiana continues their "learning experience" under first year coach Tom Crean, as the Hoosiers latest losing streak stands at 3 in a row, and overall, the Hoosiers have dropped 14 of 15 games straight up.
Against the spread, Indiana has dropped 5 of their last 9, and the numbers in this series are not in Indiana's favor either, as Wisconsin has won the last pair of tilts, and 7 of the last 10 straight up, while covering in the last pair, and 6 of those last 10 meetings.
Wisconsin's 6 game losing streak hurt, and they still need to do some work before the Big Dance makes their selections. Look for the Badgers to take no prisoners tonight.
Play on the Badgers.
5♦ WISCONSIN
Karl Garrett
Washington +7' at UCLA
Wednesday winner from the G-Man on Penn State outright at Illinois.
G-Man now on a 12-6 comp play run, and a 17-8 overall free play run the last 25 days.
Another underdog play tonight on Washington at UCLA.
The Bruins are back at home, but they come back home saddled with a pair of ugly losses in Arizona to both the Sun Devils, and the Wildcats. I am not so sure I want to lay this many points with a UCLA team that has obviously had their confidence a bit shaken.
Washington comes in with an identical 19-6 mark as UCLA, and they have won and covered their last 3 games on the conference trail.
The Huskies also won the first meeting this season against the Bruins, 86-75 as the 2-point favorite to make it 2 in a row over the Uclans, and 6 of the last 8 overall against UCLA.
Considering the numbers I just listed, you have to wonder why U-Dub is catching over 3 baskets in this one.
Take sign on the Huskies tonight, as they give the Bruins all they can handle once again.
3♦ WASHINGTON
Dwayne Bryant
Play: Duke -11
The last thing St. John's needs right now is a visit from Duke. The Red Storm have lost four straight and they already have double-digit home losses to Louisville, Cincinnati, Connecticut, and Miami.
Duke defeated St. John's by 30 in Cameron last season and by 17 in New York two seasons ago. Duke does have a revenge game on deck against Wake Forest, but I can't see them missing out on a chance to stomp an inferior opponent after two straight crushing losses. The Blue Devils should be plenty fired up for this one after losing at Boston College and at home against North Carolina in their last two games.
Duke is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a losing SU record.
St. John's is 0-8 ATS in their last 8 vs. ACC foes. St. John's is also 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS win. The Red Storm are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning SU record.
After two losses in a row, there will be no let up tonight by the Blue Devils. Lay the points with Duke tonight.