LT Profits
Minnesota +8
The Big Ten is known for its home dominance generally, but the Minnesota Golden Gophers are a respectable 4-5 straight up in true road games this season while the Illinois Fighting Illini managed a grand total of 33 points in their last home game.
The Gophers blew out Illinois 59-36 back in Minnesota last month, and even though this contest is in Champaign, we see no reason why the Gophers cannot keep the Iliini offense in check again. Minnesota is ranked 25 in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency according to the Pomeroy Ratings, and they are ranked first in the land in block percentage.
Now you never know which Illinois offense will show up, but that unreliability in itself is enough of a concern when being asked to lay this many points, and that last shooting performance vs. Penn State here (15 for 50) is certainly disconcerting. The Illini are also just 4-5-1 against the spread in this building this season.
Finally, this figures to be a low-scoring game, which makes getting this many points even more valuable. We will gladly go for the value here with a good defense facing an inconsistent offense.
Pick: Minnesota +8
Tom Freese
Arizona at Washington St
Arizona is 6-0 ATS their last games vs. winning teams and they are 4-0 ATS their last 4 Pac 10 games. The Wildcats are 10-3 ATS off a straight up loss and they are 5-1 ATS off an ATS win. Washington St is 9-23 ATS vs. a team with a win percentage of over 60% and they are 3-8 ATS their last 11 home games. The Cougars are 1-5 ATS their last 6 games as home favorites and they are 1-4 ATS off an ATS win. PLAY ON ARIZONA +
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Cal -4
USC beat Cal by 11 earlier this season. Now Cal is at home and will be ready to return the favor. The Golden Bears are 15-1 SU and 10-2 ATS in home line games this season. USC is just 3-8 away from home and 1-4 in its last 5 games. Off a loss at lowly Oregon State, expect the Bears to be out for blood tonight. This is how good Cal has been at home this season: the Bears are 6-0 ATS in home games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game this season, winning by an average score of 77.9 to 64.4 in these spots. Cal is 8-2 ATS as a home favorite or pick this season and the favorite is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Take Cal tonight.
Jeff Benton
Gonzaga at SANTA CLARA +10
Scored a nice winner with Mississippi State as a freebie Wednesday night. For Thursday, we’ll stay on the college hardwood and back Santa Clara plus the big points against Gonzaga in West Coast Conference action.
Gonzaga ripped the Broncos 95-53 in mid-January, easily covering as a 20-point home favorite. But since that setback, Santa Clara has won seven of 10 games, including five straight double-digit victories at home. As for the three defeats, they were by a total of eight points, including a one-point road loss at Portland and a one-point road defeat in overtime at San Francisco on Saturday.
True, the Bulldogs have won four in a row overall, and they’re 12-0 in conference play. However, they were very shaky in their last two West Coast Conference road games, barely getting by San Francisco (78-73) and depleted St. Mary’s (72-70), failing to cover as favorites in both contests. In fact, prior to consecutive blowout home victories over Loyola Marymount and Pepperdine (the two worst teams in the WCC) in its last two outings, Gonzaga had been in a 5-11 ATS slump, all from the favorites roll.
Finally, Santa Clara has played Gonzaga very tough at home the last two years, losing 87-82 in overtime as a 7½-point ‘dog last year and 77-69 as a three-point put in 2007. This time around, the Broncos are catching double digits, which in itself is noteworthy, because Santa Clara is 13-5 ATS in its last 18 games as a ‘dog catching between 7 and 12½ points. Additionally, the Broncos are 5-1 ATS in their last six as an underdog of any number and 5-1 ATS in their last six as a home pup.
Grab the points, as Santa Clara – which is averaging 70 ppg during a 7-2 SU run – will hang in this nationally televised contest throughout and challenge for the outright upset.
3♦ SANTA CLARA
Matt Rivers
For Thursday take the Miami Hurricanes.
Virginia has been better of late and did come back nicely for a cover in Raleigh in that last game but Jack McClinton and the 'Canes need this game too much to fail.
The road is certainly a difficult place to play and the Cavaliers are an improved squad that is obviously much better in Charlottesville than on the road as they have shown in beating both Virginia Tech and Clemson recently but in this spot at this price I will take my chances on what is clearly the superior squad in Miami.
Frank Haith's team has fallen short in some big spots and at times can underachieve but they also are a talented team that should be able to step it up here. Even with the improvement UVA is still a team that fairly recently dropped eight straight games and may be the least talented team in the entire ACC, when push comes to shove.
The Hurricanes hung very very tough in covers recently against both Duke and North Carolina and dismantled Wake Forest by a billion. I'm not saying that UM can't lay an egg in this spot away from their comforts but the price is ultra cheap and definitely the right side more times than not.
Evan Altemus
Selection: UAB +4.5
Memphis survived a scare at UTEP in their last game, and the Tigers are back out on the road to face a very tough UAB team. The Blazers almost shocked them last season, but the Tigers were able to escape with a one point win. UAB has a tremendously strong home court edge. They are 12-0 straight up on their home floor, including several blowout wins. This game will be the biggest of the season for the Blazers, especially since they want to avenge a 13 point loss at Memphis from just a few weeks ago. UAB matches up fairly well against Memphis, and their home statistics are significantly better, especially on defense. The Tigers will suffer from experienced guard play in this game, as the Blazers love to play pressure defense. That defense will be even more suffocating because of the motivation that UAB will play with. Look for the Blazers to win this game outright or take it down to the wire.
Vegas Experts
Phoenix Suns at LA Lakers
Even if Steve Nash does play here (game time decision), go with the Lakers. Phoenix is 0-9 ATS after having won four of their last five games and let's take a look at exactly who the Suns have beaten during the Alvin Gentry era: the Clippers (twice), Oklahoma City and Charlotte. Those are three of the worst teams in the league. The Lakers are the best. Suns are just 3-8 ATS as a road dog this year. They have lost to the Lakers twice already this year.
Play on: LA Lakers
Dwayne Bryant
Minnesota at Illinois
Play: Illinois -8
I talk a lot about embarrassment being a great motivator, especially for good teams. Illinois is a pretty damn good team and they should be plenty motivated tonight, for several reasons.
First, this is a revenge game for the Illini. They were hammered at Minnesota last month, 59-36. They shot just 29.4% from the field, were 2-of-16 from 3-point range, and were outrebounded 40-26. Needless to say, Illinois will be UP for this one.
Second, Illinois' last appearance on their home floor was also an embarrassment, as they were upset by Penn State, 38-33. Illinois shot just 30% from the field and 3-of-16 from 3-point range while not attempting a single free throw in the entire game. Combine this performance with their last outing vs. Minnesota and I'd say we have embarrassment x 2.
Minnesota is:
* 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 7 to 12.5
* 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game
* 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600
* 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win of more than 20 points
* 3-11 ATS in the last 14 meetings
* 2-8 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Illinois
When looking at each team's home/road stats, we see that Illinois has HUGE edges in FG% (48% to 41.6%), points allowed (53.1 to 68.1), and 3-point defense (27.9% to 40.9%). Illinois also holds edges in points per game, 3-point %, free throw %, FG% allowed, and rebound margin.
Put it all together and it looks like major payback is in order tonight. I'll lay the wood with Illinois.
Larry Ness
UAB +4.5 vs Memphis
I read some reports where people are claiming that this year's Memphis team is as good as last year's team, the one which owned a nine-point lead in the 2008 national championship game with only 2:12 remaining in regulation, yet lost in OT. Gone from that team are the NBA's No. 1 overall pick PG Derrick Rose (14.9-4.5-4.7), the team's leading score Douglas-Roberts (18.1) and one-half of that team's 6-9 duo, Joe Dorsey (6.9-9.5). There is little doubt that Calipari has another excellent team, as Memphis enters this game with the nation's No. 5 ranking, on a nation-best 18-game winning streak plus the Tigers own a 53-game winning streak over C-USA opponents (including C-USA tourney games). Freshman PG Evans (17.1-5.3-3.7) actually has better numbers than Rose, while he and fellow 6-8 freshman Withersponn (4.9) are joined by a bevy of returning players. The 6-9 Dozier (12.4-6.7) is having his best season with Memphis, the 6-6 Anderson (10.5-5.2-4.2) has been a complete player and the 6-10 Taggert (10.1-7.2) has been sound, if not spectacular. Veteran guards Mack (9.1), Sallie (4.8) and Kemp (3.7) all 'fight' for playing time. Is this year's team as good as last year's team? Well, last year's team barely 'escaped' Birmingham with a 79-78 win and this year's Tigers will be fortunate to "be so lucky." Mike Davis' team has put on a nice "closing run," entering this game having won NINE of its last 10 games, to move to 19-8 overall and 9-3 in C-USA. The Blazers sorely want an NCAA bid and a win over Memphis may be a MUST, when it comes to at-large consideration. UAB is nowhere near as deep as Memphis but in the 6-5 Vaden (18.3-5.0), PG Delaney (16.6-4.5-3.7), who's made the most of his medical redshirt, the 6-8 Kinnard (15.1-9.0) and Georgia transfer Toney (8.8-3.8), the Blazers could pull the upset. Desperate UAB (on that proverbial NCAA 'bubble') came closer than any C-USA foe in the past three years vs Memphis in last year's controversial one-point loss and I expect emotions to be running high at Bartow Arena on Thursday night. Take the points.
Greg Shaker
Wake Forest / North Carolina St. Over 151
I don't have to tell you how Wake Forest likes to run the court and they do it very well with the #3 highest raw pace in the country and the #38 highest offensive efficiency as well. They have done the most damage right here at home where they are 7-3 OVER the mark. That style of play is getting better with each game at 5-0 OVER the last 5 played regardless of where they have dribbled the ball. The visitors do not put a large emphasis on defense and that is especially true when they travel, allowing 7 more points per contest, and right at 47% opponent shooting numbers. That is very poor indeed. The fact is, NC State is 7-1 OVER the mark in their last 8 lined games, they are in the bottom 1/2 of all division 1A teams in D Efficiency, but they are also the #42 Team in scoring efficiency. This is a high number to obtain but these two squads have done that already once this year with a 158 contest earlier this month. That game featured 123 shots taken. If we get the same kind of contest this one will be like a walk in the park. I think we will and I would play it up to 154.
Jack Jones
Cavs/Rockets UNDER 186
When you look at how well both of these teams have been playing defensively lately, it's a surprise to me that this total is as high as it is. The Cavs are giving up just 85.6 ppg over their last five, while Houston is allowing 85.6 as well. Both teams are holding opponents to around 42% shooting and both teams have won every won of those games. With the success each has been having slowing things down and playing solid defense, why do you think things will change tonight? Play the UNDER when a team led their last game by 20 or more points at the half when playing an opponent who put up 60 or more in the first half of their last game. 52-16 (76.5%) since 1996
John Ryan
UCLA vs. Stanford
Play: UCLA -6.5
Ryan is 3-1 ATS w/ his top rated 15* Titan Plays this season. This one is in the ACC + can be seen on ESPN360.com. The play is reinforced by Ryan’s extensive winning research featuring a strong system + game dependent angles hitting 97% ATS for an incredible 30-1 ATS mark. Pay when the 15* Titan wins ATS. Ai Simulator 3* graded play on UCLA over Stanford slated to start at 10:30 EST. AiS shows a 70% probability that UCLA will win this game by 8 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 28-9 ATS for 76% since 1997. Play against dogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points off 2 or more consecutive losses as a favorite and is a marginal winning team posting a win percentage between 51% and 60% playing a winning team. UCLA is also 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in road games when playing against a marginal winning team posting a win percentage between 51% and 60% after 15 or more games since 1997. Stanford is off 3 straight losses and have lost 7 of their last 9. They lost by 12 at Oregon State and were 4.5 point favorites and in their last game they lost at Oregon by 8 points and were 5 point favorites. UCLA suffered a significant letdown after defeating conference leader Washington on 2/19 losing then to WSU by just 1 point and were installed as 13.5 point favorites. In that game they shot 53%, but lacked any defensive focus. That will certainly be different tonight knowing they are nearing the month of March and simply need to playing better and better with each passing game. Stanford season is over. Take UCLA
Tom Stryker
UCLA vs. Stanford
Play: UCLA -6.5
With losses in three of their last four games and a pair of road wars at Stanford and California on deck, UCLA needs to kick things up a notch. The Bruins were picked to win the Pac 10 before the season began and they'll need a lot of good fortune to accomplish that team goal.
Technically speaking, this is an ideal spot for head coach Ben Howland's men. Two strong team situations favor UCLA. First, as a guest coming off two or more home games, the Bruins are a powerful 53-24-2 ATS including 22-5 ATS in this role in their last 27 battles. Second, on foreign courts running with four or more days of rest, Coach Howland's kids have played extremely well notching a stellar 21-5 ATS record.
Off a straight up loss, UCLA has posted wins in 21 of its last 24 and the Bruins stand 52-34 ATS on the road facing a foe that checks in without momentum off a straight up blemish. No one hates losing more than Coach Howland. Off that embarrassing defeat at Pauley Pavilion to Washington State, the well rested Bruins will be primed to make a run. Take UCLA.
Scott Rickenbach
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Houston Rockets
PICK: Cleveland Cavaliers
This play narrowly missed my service play list today. There is some concern about whether Delonte West could be impacted by his sore wrist here. Yes, he looked great in his first game back, versus Detroit, but then he missed the next game, against Memphis, due to soreness in the wrist. He's now listed as probable for tonight and we expect a strong game from him.
Overall the Cavaliers are rolling and this is a classic case of getting line value because of historical data. The Cavs have had a history of struggles at Houston and, of course, the Rockets have been strong at home this season. That is keeping this line lower than it should be if you look purely at the match-ups here. We know that the Rockets have been playing well but one must also consider who they've been matched up with recently. Additionally, the Rockets new point guard Aaron Brooks will face a big test now as he faces one of the best defenses in the league. LeBron James and Company have a chance to make a big statement on the road in a nationally televised game. We do not see them letting this opportunity pass them by. Consider a small play on Cleveland minus the short number on Thursday night.
Dennis Macklin
West Virginia at Cincinnati
Prediction: West Virginia
Just have to lay the points here with Huggies West Virginia outfit as he returns for the first time since getting run out of town four years ago. YOU KNOW Huggins will be especially red-assed after the Bearkats went to Morgantown last year and punked the Mounties 62-39 in WVU's worst effort of the year. WVU is playing great defense and won last three by DDs, they're 6-2 as a Big East fave, 2-0 on the road. Take West Virginia.