Rocketman Sports
Oregon State vs. UCLA
Play: UCLA -18.5
Oregon State normally doesn't do well in March as they are 0-7 SU and ATS the past 3 years. Oregon State is 7-17 ATS last 3 years when revenging a home loss against an opponent. Oregon State is 4-13 ATS last 3 years and 1-5 ATS this year revenging a blowout loss of 20 points or more vs opponent. UCLA is beating opponents by 20 points per game this year at home as they are averaging 81.4 points per game while allowing only 61.4 points per game. UCLA is 18-6 ATS overall vs Oregon State since 1997. UCLA won by 23 in Oregon State a couple months ago and should get the job done in a big, big way again. We'll recommend a small play on UCLA tonight! Thanks and good luck,
Craig Trapp
California vs. Arizona
Play: Arizona -4.5
This game is very one sided with trends check these trends out:
Golden Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.
Golden Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.
Golden Bears are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Wildcats are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games.
Wildcats are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
Wildcats are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite.
Zona will win going away here Budinger is most likely leaving after this year so he wants to finish strong at home and will have great game tonight. SCORE ZONA 80 - CAL 71
Matt Fargo
Missouri St. at Witchita State
Prediction: Witchita State
It was a tough year for Missouri St. as it was in a rebuilding season and it definitely showed. Injuries along the way did not help matters as the Bears finished the regular season with a 3-15 record in the Missouri Valley Conference, good for last place by four games. The Bears finished the regular season last in the MVC in scoring offense with 61.4 ppg, shooting percentage at 40.5 percent, and shooting defense at 44.5 percent. This team comes into the tournament with no momentum and keeping this line low is the fact that Missouri St. routed the Shockers by 13 points and lost in Wichita by just a single point. Other than that, there is no basis for this line being what it is. The Shockers finished the season rather strong as they won nine of their final 13 games with the four losses all coming in true road games. Wichita St. played three neutral court games this season going 1-2 but it was an impressive 1-2. It defeated MAAC Champions Siena while losing to Georgetown and Michigan St. by eight points each and those losses are not bad ones at all. The Bears big problem has been on offense where they have scored fewer than 60 points in their last two games and have surpassed 70 points only twice in their last 21 games. Conversely, they have scored 60 or fewer points 10 times. The job will be tough to turn that around against a very solid defense that the Shockers bring to the court. And that puts Wichita St. into a very solid play on situation. Play against teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are averaging 63 ppg or fewer going up against a team that is allowing fewer than 63 ppg, after a combined score of 125 points or less. This situation is 80-41 ATS (66.1 percent) since 1997. 3* Wichita St. Shockers
BEN BURNS
Portland Trail Blazers @ Denver Nuggets
PICK: Denver Nuggets
These teams split a pair of games on back to back nights, just before Christmas. In each case, the home team won and covered. The Blazers won by nine at Portland. Despite playing without Carmelo Anthony, the Nuggets won by eight when they met at Denver.
That's no real surprise though, as both teams have been much stronger at home all year. With Tuesday's loss at Detroit, the Nuggets are now 17-15 on the road. However, with a double-digit win over the Lakers in their last game here, they're an impressive 22-7 in games played at Denver.
The Blazers have an even bigger difference between their home and away records. While they managed a victory at Minnesota on 2/27, they're still 1-5 their last six road games and 13-17 on the season. However, with last night's narrow win vs. Indiana, they're now an excellent 25-5 at home.
With the Blazers coming off a game last night, I expect the home team to have the advantage again this evening. The Blazers are just 2-5 ATS the last seven times that they played the second of back to back games. The last time they played the second of back to back games was on 2/25 (at San Antonio) and they lost by 15.
Including their win and cover on 12/22, the Nuggets are 16-2 and 13-5 ATS the last 18 times that they hosted the Blazers. With the Blazers just 1-6 ATS the last seven times that they played a road game with an over/under line in the 195 to 199.5 range, consider laying the points with Denver.
maddux sports
Today's Free Pick is Providence +11
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EZWINNERS.COM - FREE SELECTION
(739) Indiana State Sycamores +3
The Sycamores are one of the Missouri Valley
Conference's hottest teams having won six out
of their last seven games entering the MVC
tournament. Indiana State's has a balanced
offense with center Jay Tunnell in the middle
and a penetrating point guard in Harry Marshall
who drives and kicks it out to guards Jordan
Printy and Rashad Reed who are solid 3 point
shooters. Drake has only won three out of their
last ten games and they are only 2-6 against
the spread in their last eight games as a
favorite. Take the points.
2009 Free Selections Record 34-29 (54.0%)
8)
Dwayne Bryant
Bet: Bowling Green +9
Big game in the MAC, as both teams are vying for a first-round bye in the conference tourney. Miami (Ohio) took "Round 1" this season with a 67-60 win at Bowling Green on 1/20/09. In that game, the Red Hawks shot 53.7% (10% above their season average) from the field while the Falcons shot just 42.9%.
This game should be close if Miami (Ohio) shoots closer to their season average of 43.7% this time around. Then again, the Red Hawks shot close to 54% last time and still only managed a 7-point win.
Bowling Green is 9-3 ATS on the road this season and they're playing some good basketball right now. The Falcons have won 9 of their last 11 games and posted upset wins over Akron and Kent State in their last two outings.
The Falcons are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. MAC rivals. The Falcons are also 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning SU record.
The Red Hawks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. MAC foes. The Red Hawks are also 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning SU record.
This is an important game for both teams, so I expect a hard-fought battle. I'll take the generous points with revenge-minded Bowling Green.
ALEX SMART
Illinois @ Penn State
PICK: Over
The Big 10 is a conference that prides it self on playing a tough physical brand of defense, but what Illinois and Penn State took part in in a earlier meeting this season , can only be described as a horrendous shooting performance by both teams . The 38-33 final score that favored visiting Penn State had many of the pundits poking fun at both teams offensive ineptness . Because of that embarrassing final score , I'm betting both programs, in an effort to save face for themselves and the conference itself, will now play a much more up-tempo tilt that will eclipse the number. I know this is a nationally televised game, and that the linesmakers lean on the Total a little bit, knowing Joe public loves to hit the over. But despite of this and because of the difficulties associated with setting this type of number, we are still getting decent value on a set of digits , that will be eclipsed by two opponents that I'm projecting will put 60 plus points on the board. ......Play OVER
DAVE MALINSKY
Dallas Mavericks @ New Orleans Hornets
PICK: Under
We have watched two separate market surges on this one so far, taking the opener of 193 up to 196.5, and now that it seems to be resting at that peak it is time to step in, as once again we have a case of the mathematicians on today’s trading floor using some overall numbers that do not fit this particular setting.
With a key corps that is growing a bit old in the tooth, it is no surprise that Dallas would both slow down, and be less efficient offensively, in back-to-back settings and that has absolutely been the case – when playing a second night away from home this season the Mavericks are 1-5 to the Under. That gets magnified by the intensity level that they displayed against the Spurs last night, plus the fact that Dirk Nowitzki played 42 minutes, Josh Howard 39, Jason Kidd 37 and Jason Terry 35. Those four scored 87 of the 107 points, dishing out 21 of the 25 assists. Heck, even Erick Dampier went 31:29, after only playing 75 minutes in the previous six games combined. This is a team that will be in no hurry to get into any kind of track meet tonight.
The real key for our purposes is that the control element, New Orleans, will not push the pace either. No team fears the shot clock less than the Hornets, who can get the ball into the hands of Chris Paul as the seconds tick away and consistently find good looks. As such, Byron Scott has become adroit at working pace at home, bringing that strength fully into play. What creates the unique value for this setting is the difference in game flow when Tyson Chandler is on the court for New Orleans. When he was out it left a hole in the middle of the defense that could be exploited, and the Hornets would occasionally speed the pace themselves to try to play around that. As such, they have played 13-6 to the Over this season when Chandler has been absent. But note that they are 13-5 to the Under in home games when he has played this, including a current run of 9-1 in that direction (the only Over in that span was a 107-80 drubbing of the Clippers, when the Hornets could not help but score easily), and 13-6 to the Under in all games in which he played and the line was -6 or higher, representing settings in which they had the talent advantage to play the game the way that they want to.
LARRY NESS
Stanford @ Arizona State
PICK: Arizona State
Arizona St won at Stanford back on Jan 2, 90-60. Considering that, I wouldn't typically look to the play the Sun Devils in this home rematch with the Cardinal. However, "special circumstances" apply in this Thursday night game. Herb Sendek's Sun Devils return to the desert this week after a "lost weekend" in the Pacific Northwest. No. 14 ASU lost at Washington 73-70 on Thursday and then 51-49 at Washington St on Saturday. Both games went OT and ASU fell to 21-7 overall (10-6 in the Pac 10) and last Monday, the Sun Devils had the biggest drop of any top-25 team (now No. 21). The Cardinal, who opened 10-0 this season, enter this game 16-11, which includes a 5-11 Pac 10 mark. What a difference a year can make! Instead of confronting Stanford's 7-foot Lopez twins, ASU's 6-9 Jeff Pendergraph (16.1-6.3) faces a much easier time this year vs a smaller Cardinal frontline. In ASU's 30-point win on Jan 2, Pendergraph 'exploded' for career-high 31 points. Pendergraph gets some help inside from the 6-6 Kuklis (10.4-3.9) but ASU's strength is its perimeter game, led by the spectacular 6-5 Harden (20.8-5.6-4.3), who is also a pretty fair rebounder. Harden is aided by Glasser (8.0-4.7 APG), Abbott (6.5-3.9) and McMillan (4.9). Stanford's best players are guard Goods (15.9), the 6-8 Hill (13.4-5.3) and swingman Fields (12.4-6.6). The Cardinal got a much needed 75-63 last weekend over USC, which ended the team's four-game slide. However, it's back out on the Pac 10 road this weekend, where the Cardinals have gone 0-4 SU and ATS their last four, a streak which began with a 33-point loss at UCLA and its most recent defeat came 68-60 at Oregon, which ended the Ducks' 0-14 start to this year's Pac 10 season. Coming off a pair of bitter OT defeats in Washington last weekend, expect ASU to show "no mercy" Thursday night to Stanford. Lay the points.
Tom Freese
Oregon at USC
Play: USC
USC is 22-10 ATS when playing off a straight up loss and they are 8-3 ATS of an ATS loss. The Trojans are 5-2 ATS on Thursday and they are 5-1 ATS their last 6 games vs. the Ducks. Oregon is 2-10 ATS their last 12 road games vs. teams with a winning home record and they are 7-20 ATS their last 27 games as underdogs. The Ducks are 1-9 ATS vs. a team with a home winning percentage of over 60% and they are 7-19-1 ATS on Thursday. PLAY ON SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA -
Nick Parsons
Portland Trail Blazers at Denver Nuggets
Prediction: Denver Nuggets
With Carmelo Anthony expected back from a brief suspension, the Nuggets look to avoid their third straight loss and increase a slim division lead as they meet the surging Trail Blazers on Thursday night at the Pepsi Center. Having Anthony (21.6 ppg, 7.4 rpg) should certainly help the Nuggets, who have won 16 of their last 18 at home against Portland, including a 97-89 victory on Dec. 22. Denver is 22-7 at home, while Portland is 13-17 on the road. Look for DENVER to improve to 5-3 ATS as a home favorite of 3 1/2 to 6 points!
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Illinois/Penn State UNDER 117.5
These teams combined for just 71 totals points when Penn State beat Illinois 38-33 last month. While I expect more scoring today, I don't see this one going over as each of the past 2 meetings in this series at Penn State have gone under. The last time these two teams faced off here, just 103 total points were scored. Both of these teams are sensational on the defensive end and I expect to see another physical, ugly matchup. Illinois is 21-8 UNDER in road games over the last 3 seasons, 14-4 UNDER as a favorite this season, and 16-4 UNDER after scoring 30 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons. The UNDER is 11-3 in the Fighting Illini's last 14 overall and 8-3-1 in the Nittany Lions' last 12 home games. Take the Under.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Wichita State -2.5
These teams split a pair of close games during the regular season but I give the Shockers the edge tonight as they enter the MVC tourney playing much better basketball. Missouri State lost 6 of 7 and 9 of 11 down the stretch and it takes on a Wichita State team that believes it can win this tourney as it already has wins over top seeds Northern Iowa and Creighton this season. Missouri State is just 4-12 ATS against conference opponents this season, 6-17 ATS revenging a loss vs. an opponent over the last 2 seasons, and 0-6 ATS when playing away from home and revenging a same season loss vs. an opponent over the last 2 seasons. Lay the number.
VEGAS EXPERTS
Louisiana Tech at Idaho
Louisiana Tech has been a great spread team all season long, covering 17 of 23 games overall. Most of that damage has come in the underdog role (12-5 ATS) and on the road (10-2 ATS). They have been getting points in every road game this season, so these four or so points look quite attractive tonight. This is particularly true because Idaho is a hideous 0-7 ATS at home coming off a SU win. Tech has covered each of its last seven lined games.
Play on: Louisiana Tech
Craig Davis
Chalk up another FREE PLAY victory as the Cleveland Cavaliers get the job done against Milwaukee at home. That makes seven of my last eight and 10 of my last 14… and the run continues tonight with an easy winner on Providence PLUS the points.
Look, I like Villanova and I respect what they can do at home. But this team isn’t doing now what they were doing just a few weeks ago… and that’s scoring in the 90s. Shoot, they let Georgetown come into their place and beat them Saturday. Not exactly what I’d call home court advantage.
Do I think Villanova is the better team? Absolutely. But even “better” teams lose once in a while and this 10-point line is just way too high.
Providence is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games when getting this many points while the Wildcats have recently struggled in this role (giving points to a team with a winner percentage lower than .400).
Easy call on Providence tonight.
2♦ PROVIDENCE