Karl Garrett
Providence +10 at VILLANOVA
Providence is making some late noise, as the Friars just beat Pittsburgh when the Panthers were ranked # 1, and they come to Villanova off a win and cover to make it 4 of their last 6 in the win column.
Keno Davis' team would love to add Villanova's scalp to their regular season resume, but it will be tough for the Friars to win this game outright.
Still, the G-Man thinks the points will work, as the road team in this series has gone 6-1 straight up the last 7, winning the last 3 outright.
In this series, the road team has covered the last 8, and the underdog has gone 6-2 in those 8 meetings.
With the Friars looking to garner an at-large bid, and the Wildcats having failed their last pair in the role of home favorite, the G-Man will take his chances with the points in this spot.
Take Providence plus the points.
3♦ PROVIDENCE
Drew Gordon
Illinois at PENN STATE +2
Good spot to back the Nittany Lions here, who come into this game desperate to improve their resume, especially considering their shaky play over the last month. Look for them to get their heads on straight now back at home, where they're extremely efficient offensively, and that's what makes the difference in this one. Read on...
Why is offense the difference? Well, based on their last meeting, the first team to 40 points wins, right?! In all seriousness, these two teams know how to defend eachother, and that was plain as day in Penn State 38-33 win back on February 18th! In that contest, both teams shooting 30% or lower, but Penn State won 3 critical areas: the turnover battle, the battle of the boards, and they shot 81% from the free throw line (nothing like the charity stripe to help a struggling offense)! Look for more of the same calculated and careful ball from the Lions tonight at home!
But the real x-factor in this contest is motivation, as Illinois may be looking to bounce back from their home loss to Michigan State, but in reality, we know their ticket is already punched, so don't tell me they have the motivational edge here, because they don't. Two reasons I like the Lions to play especially well tonight: A. They played a piss-poor game against Indiana and escaped with a 61-58 win SU, but that was by no means a quality win... Look for them to re-focus after that pathetic effort. And B. As mentioned above, if the Lions do not win this game, they may very well be left on the outside looking in.
Finally, what have the Illini done on the conference trail this season? Let's see: Lost at Michigan, lost at Michigan State, ugly loss at Minnesota, and lost at Wisconsin... Are you starting to see a pattern here?! More of the same tonight, as the Illini once again fold in hostile territory. Penn State defends their house, grabbing the cash in the process Thursday night!
Take Penn State plus the points over Illinois in this college hoops match up.
2♦ PENN STATE
Bobby Maxwell
Oregon State +18 at UCLA
Oregon State relies on defense and keeping the score low to remain in games. The Beavers will do that tonight so let's go ahead and grab the points with them tonight at UCLA.
Oregon State has won three of four (3-1 ATS) but they're coming off a tough rivalry loss at Oregon on Sunday, falling 79-69 as two-point 'dogs. The Beavers allow just 62.6 points a game while the Bruins give up 63.7 per contest. The key to this one will be Oregon State's defense and limiting the turnovers.
Lately, UCLA's defense hasn't been so good, allowing 76.2 points a game and almost 51 percent shooting from the field. The Bruins beat the Beavers 69-46 back on Jan. 2 as 15-point favorites but that was before the Beavers had figured out what was going to work. They are 6-2 ATS in their last eight against teams with winning records, 4-1 ATS following a non-cover and 4-1 ATS on Thursdays.
UCLA is just 1-4-1 ATS in its last six overall, all against Pac-10 rivals.
Let's grab all these points tonight and play the Beavers as they at least keep it respectable at UCLA.
2♦ OREGON STATE
GINA
Portland Trail Blazers at Denver Nuggets
The hot Blazers have won three straight and six of its last eight games. Meanwhile, the Nuggets are struggling, dropping their last two games and five of its last seven. Even so, Portland has been dreadful on the road, 13-17 this year, 1-5 in its last six. Go with the home team. Denver is 22-7 at the Pepsi Center this season and has won ten of the last 11 games against the Trail Blazers in Denver.
Denver Nuggets -5
Mr A
New Orleans Hornets -6½
Denver Nuggets -7
Randall the Handle
Pittsburgh +1.25 over FLORIDA
Sidney Crosby is probably not going to play tonight but regardless, the Pens are playing so much better these days and this is without doubt one of its most important games of the year. Pittsburgh has moved into eight place with 72 points, tied with the Rangers and just a point ahead of Buffalo and Carolina. Every game is crucial but they can tie Florida at 74 points a piece with a win here. The Pens have won four in a row on the road and their turnaround started as soon a Sergei Gonchar returned from a long injury. Suddenly, the offense has become a lot more dangerous and Bill Guerin adds some depth, leadership and experience and was perhaps the best forward available at the deadline. The Panthers return home from a five-game trip and pretty much stood pat. They picked up defenseman Steve Eminger from Tampa Bay in what was perhaps the quietest move of the day. In other words, who cares? So, while the Panthers have been tough all year, the Penguins are on a roll and look more determined then ever to make the playoffs. Marc Andre Fleury is playing terrific right now, as is the whole team and in a crucial game I have to go with the team that is hotter and understands these situations a lot better than the hosts. Play: Pittsburgh +1.25 (Risking 2 units).
Columbus +1.35 over NASHVILLE
The Preds have won five in a row and they scored 14 goals in its last two wins over Detroit and Edmonton. In fact, the Preds have scored 24 times in its last four games and that’s incredible when you consider that they’ve been tooth and nails to score anything all year long. So, they ran into some soft goaltending, they got a little hot but there’s just no way that’s going to continue much longer. Now they’ll face the defensive-minded Jackets in another crucial game and they’ll face the strong goaltending of Steve Mason (25-15-3 record and a 2.20 goals-against average). I also like the pick-up of Antoine Vermette for Columbus. Vermette is a highly skilled, speedy player that could thrive on this team and the Jackets say he’ll play on the top line alongside Nash and Huselius. This is a case of a hot team being a little overpriced due to a recent surge and thus, the value lies in the visitor. Play: Columbus +1.35 (Risking 2 units).
Rob Homyak
Dayton Flyers at Xavier Musketeers
5 units on Xavier Musketeers
Derrick Brown poured in 18 points and grabbed nine rebounds as Xavier defeated St. Joseph's PA on Thursday. Xavier easily covered the 4-point spread, but the game's combined 122 points fell UNDER the posted total of 133.5.B.J. Raymond collected 18 points and five rebounds. C.J. Anderson added 10 points in that win.Xavier closes out its home schedule Thursday night against the Flyers, who haven't won on the road in this series in 23 games.
Top Trends for this game.
Xavier is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) in home games revenging a road loss vs. opponent since 1997.
Xavier is 26-14 ATS (+10.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
Xavier is 67-42 ATS (+20.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games since 1997.
Xavier is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in home games when playing with 5 or 6 days rest since 1997.
Dayton when playing on Thursday is 3-7
Head-to-Head Series History
Xavier is 5-2 against the spread versus DAYTON over the last 3 seasons
Xavier is 6-1 straight up against DAYTON over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
JACK JONES
Houston Rockets +9
The Jazz have won eight straight games and are looking like a solid playoff contender, especially with Andrei Kirilenko and Carlos Boozer back in the lineup, but they are laying too many points to the Rockets tonight. Houston has won eight of the nine games they have played since Tracy McGrady went down to injury. The Rockets have shot over 50.6% in their last two games, and the Jazz just allowed the Warriors to shoot 51% in their win on Sunday so I'm taking the points.
Portland Blazers +7 over Utah Jazz
I'm taking the points tonight with the Blazers, who are slightly behind the Nuggets in the Northwest Division standings. This game will be an important showdown for the divisional race, but Denver also has to be thinking about a game with Utah coming up tomorrow night as well. Denver has lost two in a row and five of their last seven and will be playing a Portland team that has won three in a row. I also don't like how Carmelo Anthony and George Karl disagree on whether a suspension was warranted (Melo had to sit out Tuesday night for d. Portland is only 13-17 on the road this year, but the Nuggets are only winning by less than five ppg at home, and I think the Blazers are better than your average team.
3G SPORTS
Nevada just scored its best win in what has been a frustrating campaign as they dumped Utah State. The Wolfpack also knocked off VCU in the Bracket Buster, so it looks as though they may finally be rounding into form. That makes UNR very live with the WAC Tourney taking place in Reno. But I’m still not convinced they’re ready to be spotting any big numbers. They’re just 2-9 as home chalk this season, and if this gets to double digits, note that Nevada is 0-6 laying ten or more this year. Lets bank on the doggie in this one.
PREDICTION: San Jose +9.5
John Ryan
Oregon St. at UCLA
Prediction: UCLA
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on UCLA as they host Oregon State slated to start at 10:30 EST. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 33-10 ATS for 77% since 1997. Play against dogs of 10 to 19.5 points that are horrible offensive team scoring <=63 PPG facing a good defensive team allowing 63-67 PPG after 15+ games, after allowing 30 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games. 85% probability that Oregon State will not score more than 60 points. Note that OSU is a miserable 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in road games when they score 60 or less points in a game over the last 2 seasons. UCALA HC Howland is a solid 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in a home game where the total is 130 to 134.5 as the coach of UCLA; 32-15 ATS (+15.5 Units) versus teams who average 33 or less rebounds/game on the season in all games he has coached since 1997. Take UCLA and the lay the points.
Dennis Macklin
Phoenix Coyotes at Boston Bruins
Prediction: Over
The Bruins are 3-7 over L10 so couldn't consider side laying over $3.00. That said, thinking that the slumping Bruins get tonight's total by themselves as there's nothing (20 goals, L5) with Beantown offense. Coyotes in the middle of a fire sale but in 6-1 over spot after three straight unders. Boston is 21-7 over in L28 versus losing records and should have the red light flashing all night. Play the Coyotes/Bruins OVER the total.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on S. Carolina -1.5
Multi-System Play: SC is 14-4 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons, 7-0 ATS after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread over the last 3 seasons, and 7-0 ATS after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. Out to avenge a bad loss at Vandy and an earlier season loss to Tennessee, I'll lay the points with the Gamecocks tonight.
Black Widow
1* on Providence +10.5
Providence has too much to play for tonight to just fold at Villanova. This is the true definition of a bubble team as the Friars sit at 18-11 on the season and 10-7 in Big East play. But Providence has shown their mental toughness over the last week, beating Pitt at home by 8 and winning at Rutgers by 7 which is not an easy place to play. Also note that Villanova beat Providence by 3 points 94-91 in their first meeting this season, so with the Friars playing with revenge in mind they should be able to stay within double-digits of the Wildcats again. Villanova is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) after having won 8 or more of their last 10 games over the last 3 seasons. Providence simply needs this win more and that’s why they’ll come out swinging tonight and give the Wildcats a run for their money. Take Providence and the points.
Free Selection from Totals4U
Thursday's free selection: Southern California Trojans - 14
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
Long Beach State -2.5 over CAL POLY SLO
The 49ers are 21-7-1 ATS in their last 29 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5 and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing home record, while the Mustangs are 4-17 ATS in their last 21 games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5 and 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. LBS is coming of of one it's worst performances of the year as they lost 95-74 to CS Northridge. That game was important to the 49ers as a win there would have given them the lead in the Big West conference. So what better way to bounce back that with a game vs the worst team in the league. Cal Poly is just 7-19 overall and 3-11 in the Big West, plus they have really struggled at home this year, going 3-10 overall and 0-6 in conference play. The Mustangs have won just 1 of their last 6 games and that was vs a Division 2 team. The Mustangs have been outscored by 7.1 ppg in Big West play, including being outscored by 8.7 ppg in their Big West home games. Cal Poly is ranked just 233rd in scoring (65.1 ppg and 303rd in FG% (40.4%), while on defense this team has struggled also as they have allowed 70.2 ppg (235th) and they have allowed 45.1% shooting (267th). The 49ers offense has been very good this year as they have averaged 71.9 ppg (107th) and have shot 45.2% from the field (107th). Their defense has struggled as they have allowed 73.2 ppg (298th), but they did hold the Mustangs to just 57 points back in early January. The 49ers are still in the thick of the Big West race, so they still have a ton to play for and despite their weak defense, I just don't see the Mustangs putting enough points on the board to keep this one close. LBS by 9+.
3 UNIT PLAY
Bowling Green +8.5 over MIAMI-OH
The Falcons are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. Mid-American, while the Red Hawks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. A ittle confused about how high this line is, as the Falcons are ahead of the Redhawks in the MAC stadings and they come in hot having won 9 of their last 11 games, while the Redhawks come in having lost 4 of their last 6. The Miami offense has not been that great this year as they have averaged just 61.7 ppg overall, including scoring just 57.5 ppg in their last 8 games overall. Now they face a Bowling that has played very good defense this year. The Falcons are 42 in scoring defense (61.9 ppg) and 27th in FG% defense (39.7%), plus they have allowed just 57.1 ppg in their last 10 MAC games. The Miami defense is acctually better overall than the Falcons, but they have slipped a bit of last as they have allowed 71 ppg in their last 3 games. The Falcons offense is not that strong as they have averaged just 63.2 ppg overall this year. Both of these offenses are very weak, but these teams have been winning games on defense, so with two of the top defenses in the league squaring off I will take the dog with this high a line almost every time. Maybe it's a trap line, but I still think that this will be a low scoring tight ballgame that will be won in the closing minutes. Take the Dog here.
1 UNIT PLAY
SOUTH CAROLINA -2 over Tennessee
South Carolinia is 16-1 at home this year outscoring their foes by 14.6 ppg and they are a 7-0 at home in the SEC and have outscored those fore by 9.7 ppg. The Vols are off a solid road win over Florida, but they have still dropped 3 of their last 4 away from home. Carolina with a home game on National TV is the play here.
NHL
4 UNIT PLAY
(Power Angle Play)
NY Rangers/ NY Isle Under 5.5
The Under is 13-3 in Rangers last 16 vs. Eastern Conference, while the Under is 10-4 in Islanders last 14 home games, plus the Under is 9-1-1 in the last 11 meetings in New York. Ranger road games have averaged just 5.16 gpg on the year, including just 4.23 gpg in their last 17 away from home .Both teams have not allowed much lately as the Rangers have allowed just 2.2 gpg in their last 5, while the Isles have allowed just 1.4 gpg in their last 5, This has traditionaly been a low scoring series and I see more of the same tonight.
POWER ANGLE For This Play--- The Under is 14-2 in Rangers last 16 road games. Average goals scored is 4.12 GPG.
3 UNIT PLAY
Boston/ Phoenix Over 5.5
2 UNIT PLAY
Columbus/ Nashville Under 5.5
1 UNIT PLAY
OTTAWA -113 over Edmonton