Cajun Sports
Los Angeles Lakers vs. San Antonio Spurs
Play: Los Angeles Lakers +2.5
The AT&T Center will be the site of tonight’s Western Conference battle between the host San Antonio Spurs and the visiting Los Angeles Lakers. The Lakers lost their last trip here 112 to 111 back on January 14th but they did avenge that loss by defeating the Spurs less than two weeks later at the Staples Center, winning by 14 points. In the Lakers loss here the Spurs shot better than 57 percent from the floor and we do not expect that type of shooting performance from the host tonight. The Spurs will be without Manu Ginobili in tonight’s game as he is suffering from an injured right leg and they want him to be at 100 percent for the playoffs so they are not taking any chances with his health at this point. For the Lakers Pau Gasol was awarded the Western Conference Player of the Month Award for February. A Lakers player had won the award the previous two months but that was Kobe Bryant winning those, a two pronged offensive attack from the Lakers makes defending them even more difficult as evidenced by their conference leading record. The Lakers are 21-9 ATS when installed as an underdog and a perfect 5-0 ATS as a road dog coming off a road game. The Spurs are 6-16 ATS when playing against a team with a win percentage > 70 percent the last 2 seasons. Play ON NBA teams facing a conference rival after playing at least their last two games on the road and a line range of pk-2.5 points, 24-4 ATS their last 28 qualifying games. If our Play ON team is an underdog their record is 31-13 ATS and if they have a line range of pk-2.5 points their record is 7-1 ATS this season. We will take the points here as the Lakers get the straight up win in San Antonio on Thursday night.
Graded Selection: 2* Los Angeles Lakers 108 San Antonio Spurs 101
Craig Trapp
NC State vs. Maryland
Play: Maryland -1.5
Maryland has created a tough spot for themselves with an unexplainable loss to end the regular season. The loss at Virginia puts them under 500 in the ACC at only 7-9. Maryland most likely needs to win a minimum of two games to feel confident about their chances come Selection Sunday. Greivis Vasquez is the key to this team when he scores over 20 points and also is getting others involved Maryland can beat anyone. But when teams take him away they can lose to anyone. NC State lost by 11 earlier this year to Maryland in a game that Maryland really dominated. NC State has 4 players in double figures and don't rely on one player to carry them. Spreading the scoring around is a good thing but unfortunately they don't really have a go to player come the end of games. NC State lost a ton of close games this year with no leader or players stepping up to take and make the big one. Motivation for this team might be a problem and if they get down early they might just quit. Betting Trends: Wolfpack are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog. Wolfpack are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games overall. Terrapins are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 neutral site games. Wolfpack are 0-5 ATS in the last 5 meetings. NC State have not beat Maryland ATS in the last 5 meeting and Maryland is in a must win game. Spells trouble for the Wolfpack and a blowout is a high probability in this one. SCORE MAR 76 - NCST 61
USC vs. California
Play: California -1.5
The PAC 10 conference overall has had a disappointing year. Most experts had USC as a definite NCAA tourney team in the preseason but not many picked CAL as one. CAL has outplayed all expectations and Coach Montgomery has shown why so many saw him as a top Coach while he was at Stanford. Both teams could really use this win and this game will probably be a very physical match up.
Even scoring has been the key for a big improvement at CAL this year, led by guard Jerome Randle averaging over 17 points and 4 assists a game. Coach Montgomery has brought his success that he had at Stanford over to the Bears. A year ahead of time this team will make the big dance as most likely a #7 seed.
USC has played tough defense all year and most games dominate the glass also. But in almost every loss they have struggled on the offensive end. Poor and inconsistent outside shooting has really let them down in some key games this year. Most likely need 2 wins to have any chance of making the big dance.
Recent Trends:
Trojans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.
Trojans are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
Golden Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games as a favorite.
Golden Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Head to head Favorite is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
Talent between these teams is pretty close and maybe USC is a little more athletic. This game is going to be won in a close one and the team that comes with better effort will win this game. Coach Montgomery has proven that his games win the game they are supposed to win so we are going to take CAL. SCORE CAL 69 - USC 62
Nelly
Providence + over Louisville
Providence was a little flat in the opening game yesterday but you can blame Cincinnati for that. All week Providence prepped for a critical match-up with the Bearcats that would improve its NCAA candidacy but DePaul pulled out the upset and plans changed. The Friars had less time to prepare for DePaul and also could have looked past the Blue Demons towards this game. Providence got things together in time to close out the win but it was not its best performance and certainly did not deserve the cover they nearly stole. This should be a much better effort as this is the game they wanted all along, as it offers a legitimate ticket to the Big Dance. Louisville won the Big East and earned the top spot in this tournament but few would argue the Cardinals are the best team in the conference. Louisville drew one of the easiest schedules in the behemoth league, playing Pitt and Connecticut once each at home and the late season win streak did not feature many impressive wins and the best two wins came by very slim margins. The final score says that Louisville won by 18 against Providence in the regular season but the Friars led at halftime and this will be a much less favorable venue for Louisville. Providence actually won the rebounding battle and had a lot of opportunities in that game but Louisville simply had a hot shooting game. The comfort level for Providence should be strong having played at Madison Square Garden already and playing in the early time slot yesterday while Louisville is more likely focused on the talk of earning a potential #1 seed and could easily look past a pretty solid Providence squad. Take the points and expect an underwhelming effort from the Cardinals as Providence is by far the superior offensive team.
Great Lakes Sports
Kent State vs Buffalo
Play: Kent State
The Kent State Golden Flashes are coming off a thrill last Tuesday beating Northern Illinois and with a game under their belt we look for the Kent State Golden Flashes to be ready. The Kent State Golden Flashes is a very respectable 35-27 ATS in the role of a favorite the last three years, and the Golden Flashes is also a very solid 31-22 ATS when playing after a conference game the last three years. The Buffalo Bulls are a terrible 5-12 ATS off of a win vs a conference rival the last three years, and the Bulls are a terrible 19-30 ATS vs conference opponents the last three years. We look for the Kent State Golden Flashes to roll over the Buffalo Bulls in the quarter finals of this year’s Mid-American Conference Tournament for the ATS Win & Cover tonight.
JIM FEIST
CLEVELAND CAVALIERS / PHOENIX SUNS
Take: OVER
Reason: Steve Nash is back, which means the Suns are running and gunning, on a 3-1 run over the total. Of course, they still don't play any defense, which has been the problem during this 5-game skid. Somebody should be fired for taking a terrific team and turning it into this in just one year. Over the last 9 games, this is the 7th road game for Cleveland. They play their best defense at home, but the Cavs are a long way from home here. Look for Mo Williams and LeBron James to take the Suns' challenge to run and gun in an exciting, high scoring contest. When these teams met last month, Cleveland scored 109 in a game that went over the total. Play the Cavs/Suns over the total.
Dave Cokin
New Mexico State vs. Boise State
Play: New Mexico State -1'
As usual, we're hearing virtually every network analyst talk about how tough it is for one team to beat another three times in the same season. This is a complete myth that has zero basis in fact. The team that wins the first two meetings has a distinct advantage for the third game, and the results are definitive. The winner of the first two games usually wins again. As this is written, the team with the double revenge motive is 10-28 this season straight up, so it's business as usual, and as usual, those "experts" on the networks have gotten it wrong again. That brings me to today's New Mexico State-Boise State WAC contest, in which the Aggies are looking to beat the Broncos after dropping both regular season meetings. And here's where the double revenge has a little meaning. If the teams are really closely matched in terms of talent, then I'll agree it's tough for one team to beat the other three times in one campaign. By no means should you automatically gravitate to the team with the apparent motive, as if the numbers don't jibe, it's hardly enough of an edge on its own. But with the Aggies and Broncos a virtual wash on the numbers, I think it could be a little bit of an edge here. This is not nearly strong enough to qualify as a service release for me, but I'll lean to New Mexico State to break through today.
Jimmy The Moose
Tampa Bay Lightning at Toronto Maple Leafs
Prediction: Tampa Bay Lightning
Two team's battling near the bottom of the standings meet-up in Toronto tonight. Tampa played and lost in OT last night and they'll take on a Leafs team that they's had success against recently. The Lightning have won 3 straight over Toronto and 4 of the last 5 meetings. The Maple Leafs are 4-10 in their last 14 home games. In their last 6 games vs. a team from the Southeast the Leafs are 1-5. Play on the Tampa Bay Lightning +.
Doc
Carolina @ Dallas Over 5½
This is an important game for both teams as they are near the cutoff line for when the playoffs start next month. Carolina has made a recent surge of late winning four straight games. They have also been a solid play with the over, as they have scored at least six goals in four of their last give games. They realize to win games that they must outscore opponents in likely shootouts and this sets up perfectly for a solid play with the over. The Hurricanes last five games have averaged 7.4 combined goals per game. We will not worry about who wins this hard fought game and just collect with the over.
Robert Ferringo
Baylor (+9) over Kansas
The Bears were the preseason No. 3 team in the Big 12 conference. So obviously they have talent. This team has played uninspired, sloppy basketball over the last three months. But this team is still going to be a tough out because they are playing for their postseason lives. Curtis Jerrells and Kevin Rodgers are a pair of seniors that don’t want their careers to end and they are going to give a max effort against the top-seeded Jayhawks. Kansas is a team that, to me, is overrated. They are not used to playing on the road and they have only beaten the Bears by 10 points in each of the last two times they’ve met. That puts us right in he area of this line. I think that Baylor’s focus, the fact that they already have a game under their belts and have some of the jitters out, and the fact that the underdog is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings makes this a solid value situation.
Strike Point Sports
Alabama (+2.5) over Vanderbilt
The Tide may have been a mess early this season and through most of the SEC schedule, but right now Alabama is playing well. Winners of four of their last five coming into this first round match-up, 'Bama has also gone 5-1 ATS in their last six overall. Granted Vandy has played well too down the stretch, but I give the nod athletically to Alabama, not to mention they covered both of the regular season meetings this season. You add to the table that the underdog has also managed to go 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine meetings, and we'll take the points with the Tide and look for an outright win. Play Alabama in the SEC conference tournament game.
Sports Gambling Hotline
Lakers at SAN ANTONIO -2
It is a 22-13-2 comp play run our last 37 free selections.
Thursday night NBA action, and we will side with the Spurs to take advantage of the unrested Lakers.
Los Angeles had to battle from 11 points down last night in Houston, and now must face a San Antonio team that had the night off last night, and are concluding a 4-game home stand. The Spurs are a perfect 3-0 both straight up, and against the spread on this home stand, and we will back them minus the small impost tonight.
The Spurs are 20-11-2 this season when playing with a day off prior, and the home team in this series has won both this season, and 9 of the last 10, including the playoffs.
We will take the rested host to continue the home-oriented series trend this Thursday night.
Play on San Antone.
3♦ SAN ANTONIO
Karl Garrett
Marquette vs. VILLANOVA -2' - at NYC
For Thursday, going to play Villanova minus the small number over Marquette.
While Marquette's romp over St. John's was impressive, let's remember it was St. John's. The fact remains, Marquette is still minus a big gun in James, and the last time they played the Wildcats they were mauled, 84-102 back on February 10th.
Can't see much changing today, as Villanova plays the style of game Marquette plays, and right now they are playing it much better, as 'Nova enters sporting wins in 11 of their last 13 straight up, while going 11-4 against the spread their last 15 games.
The Golden Eagles are just 2-7 against the spread their last 9 games, and like I said at the top, a blowout win over St. John's is nothing to puff your chest out over.
Villanova is a dangerous team right now, and today they will show you why.
Take the 'Cats.
5♦ VILLANOVA
Michael Cannon
Iowa +5 vs. Michigan, at Indianapolis, IN
Take the points with Iowa this afternoon in the first round of the Big Ten tournament.
The Hawkeyes are a much improved team and should be able to give the Wolverines a scare today. Iowa is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 overall, including an overtime win over Michigan at Iowa City on Feb. 22.
Iowa also plays tough defense, ranking 12th in the nation in scoring at 58.9 ppg.
Michigan relies so heavily on its perimeter game, but they are going to have a hard time finding open looks against the aggressive Iowa defense.
Jake Kelly has done a good job running the point in the absence of Jeff Peterson, who is day-to-day with a hamstring injury.
Take the points with Iowa as they stay within the number.
3♦ IOWA
Georgia vs. Mississippi State -9', at Tampa, FL
Take Mississippi State minus the points over Georgia in the first round of the SEC tournament.
Mississippi State has revenge motive for last year’s upset loss to the Bulldogs in the SEC tourney, and they should have an easy time winning and covering this line today.
That’s because Georgia ranked at the bottom of the conference in both scoring and field goal percentage, and they will be going against a Mississippi State team that’s allowing only 39 percent from the field on the year.
Mississippi State ended the regular season with back-to-back wins over Florida and Ole Miss and that momentum should carry over into today.
Georgia’s last seven losses have been by double-digits and I see no reason why that trend should change against the deeper, more talented Msu team.
Take Mississippi State minus the points as they grab the win and cover.
4♦ MISSISSIPPI STATE
Matt Rivers
Pistons on Monday.
Cleveland State outright on Tuesday.
Colorado right here on Wednesday!
For Thursday let's make it four in a row by taking the points with the Georgia Bulldogs against Mississippi State.
I'm not at all asking history to repeat itself because it won't but I will grab this healthy sum with Terrance Woodbury and the Dawgs,
Sure UGA is clearly the weakest team in the SEC and it cost Dennis Felton his job but after the unreal SEC tournament championship run last season why not look for a little more lightning in a bottle here, or at least a semi competitive game from a still big-time athletic program in a neutral site!?!?!?
It's not like Mississippi State has been all that this season at all. These Bulldogs lost Jamont Gordon and others from last season's team and have been fairly mediocre overall. Granted mediocre is better than Georgia, there is no denying that, but besides Jarvis Varnado swatting balls away in the middle I'm really not all that concerned with much else State has to offer. These guys come in on a two game winning streak but dropped five of six before those last two victories and were fairly awful during that recent stretch.
Georgia in the SEC is similar (but even a little better) to how DePaul was in the Big East and we all saw how the Blue Demons whacked Cincinnati. UGA downed Florida and just won at Rupp against Kentucky. Sure I'll take these points!
Red Dog Sports
Miami/VT under 138.5
This game starts at 12 noon Eastern and opens the ACC tourney. These two played earlier in the year and ended 88-83 in OT. Here are the opening game scores for VT in the ACC tournament the last 4 years:
Miami 63-49 (112).........under 135
Wake 71-52 (123).........under 141
UVA 60-56 (116)...........under 131
G Tech 73-54 (127).......under 140
Not only did VT and Miami play a 63-49 game last year in the first round but the Hokies next game was 68-66 vs. UNC that also went under.
Both VT and Miami are aiming for the NCAA tourney and need a win here so I expect an under in this early round game that starts at 12 noon.
under 138.5