DOC
Cal State Northridge @ Memphis
PICK: Memphis
Free Play from Doc’s Sports. #724 Take Memphis over Cal State Northridge (12:25 pm CBS) The Tigers are disappointed that they did not earn a No. 1 seed and expect them to take out their frustration on the Matadors. This is not a good match-up for Northridge and I fully expect this one to get ugly early. For all the crap Memphis takes for playing in Conference USA, but the Big West is much worse ranking eight spots lower in the conference rpi rankings. Despite having three losses on the season, the Tigers average margin of victory is 17 points and they will make an early statement on Thursday and advance on in the tournament with a rout behind Tyreke Evans and company. Doc’s Sports has you covered all day with winners from the NCAA Tournament. We have 37 years of experience and would love to have you along with for the winning ride.
John Fisher
Butler vs. LSU
Play: LSU -2
This is a good match up but I feel LSU had a little more hops on the glass for Butler to counter. Butler is led by First Team Conference player of the year in Sophmore MAtt Howard. This is a young team with three freshman and one sophmore starting. LSU is led by Senior Marcus Thornton that averages 20 pt per game. I like how LSU plays defense. Butler is a sound team and will not be a push over. Take experience and quickness vs. steady play. LSU 59 Butler 55
American U vs. Villanova
Play: American U +16.5
This is a very scary game for Villanova. I watched this Senior American team in person. They can play the game. The spread should be 10 pts. This game will be tight throughout this contest. American matches up well against Villanova. REynolds will hit some clutch shots in the end a Villanova will crack American zone at the 10 minute mark of the second half. Villanova 76 American 67
New Mexico vs. Notre Dame
Play: Notre Dame -5
I wanted to see how the IRISH responded. The home court made gave them the juice they needed. Looks like they want to win this thing. Dont see MExico staying with them after the 10 minute mark of second half. IRISH 79 NM 70
Jeff Benton
Thursday’s free play in the Big Dance comes in evening action, as we’ll take the points with Michigan against Clemson. No doubt the Wolverines are very lucky to be here – and if you argued that they didn’t deserve one of the final at-large bids, I wouldn’t disagree. But now that they are here, I do think they can really give inconsistent Clemson fits.
Remember, Michigan owns some impressive victories this season over the likes of UCLA (road), Duke, Illinois, Minnesota (home and road) and Purdue – all of which qualified for the Tournament. The Wolverines also held their own during a road game at top-seeded UConn back on Feb. 7, losing 69-61 but covering as a 16½-point underdog. Including that result, Michigan comes into the Tournament on an 8-3 ATS run, including 4-1 ATS in the last five and 3-1 ATS in its last four as an underdog
Meanwhile, Clemson’s psyche has to be a bit shaken right now. The Tigers, who started the season 16-0, have lost four of their last five games both SU and ATS. That includes an inexcusable 86-81 loss to lowly Georgia Tech in the opening round of the ACC tournament, failing to cover as an 8½-point favorite. The Tigers have really lost a step defensively, as they’ve surrendered 78.4 ppg on 49.5 percent shooting during their 1-4 slump. They’ve also given up 80.3 ppg on 50 percent shooting on the road this season. (Michigan, meanwhile, gives up just 63.3 ppg overall, 60.8 ppg at neutral sites and 61.4 ppg in its last five.)
Bottom line: Clemson definitely has the better athletes, but it’s obvious that coach Oliver Purnell isn’t getting the most of out that talent, And it’s tough to ignore Purnell’s 0-4 SU record in the Tournament, including last year’s 75-69 one-and-done loss to Villanova as a six-point favorite. By comparison, Michigan coach John Beilein, who headed up West Virginia before coming to Ann Arbor prior to last season, is 6-4 in four trips to the Big Dance. Take the points with the underdog.
5♦ MICHIGAN
Matt Rivers
For Thursday take the points with Western Kentucky.
How can you not at least make a small play on the Hilltoppers!?!??!
Illinois is a very solid defensive team that is pretty good overall, I do admit that. The Fighting Illini went 24-9 for the season and when fully healthy are clearly superior to today's opponent. But Chester Frazier is probably not going to be able to go and that is absolutely monstrous. No team can just lose their point guard and be expected to smack another quality team around like this, just look at how poorly North Carolina just played without Ty Lawson.
Bruce Weber is a very solid coach who did a great job with this program this season but let's be honest here, the Illini are allergic to scoring points at times and have no business laying a full handful like this in a neutral site all the way across the country in Oregon. They come into this thing having lost three of their last four games and the ony win came against a mediocre Michigan team that was on a back-to-back. Also Weber's boys have not gone North of 70 points since early January meaning that they can win this game and easily not cover the number.
The Hilltoppers are probably not as good this season as last but Ken McDonald's boys still went a very solid 24-8 overall and 15-3 in the Sun Belt. They stunned Louisville earlier in the season and have a few guys in AJ Slaughter and Sergio Kerusch among others who are no joke.
WKU has won seven straight games and 11 of 12. I'm not saying they are going to advance today but they definitely could and even if they don't the number definitely could prove to be a bit much for the low scoring Illini.
Jake Timlin
Rounding out the first day of the tournament I look for Binghamton to stay well inside the lofty number Duke is laying. Sure Duke is in no danger of losing to the Bearcats, but asking for the Blue Devils to cover a big number is going to tough. You see for Duke they are just 8-13 ATS when laying double digits since ’99 and given the let up in the second half Binghamton will have every opportunity to say within the twenty point margin. Helping Binghamton in keeping things closer than expected will be their leading scorer who in Rivera who is averaging 20 ppg and who will be supported by a pair talented teammates who could very well play at many higher lever programs. Plus, given the excitement that the Bearcats will have and wanting to show their stuff for this one game really makes me like the points. So in a game that they just might back-door I say take Binghamton plus the points.
PICK: Binghamton Bearcats
Sports Gambling Hotline
Texas A&M vs. BYU -2'
These teams met in last year's tournament in Anaheim, and A&M prevailed 67-62 as the one point favorite. We see a similar score today, but we see the Cougars being the team that prevails.
BYU has won 10 of their last 12 straight up, and has covered in 9 of those 12. They catch the Aggies off that mind-boggling 22-point collapse in the Big 12 tournament against Baylor, and we are not sure Mark Turgeon's team has their minds straight after that debacle of a loss.
Good chance this game stays nip-and-tuck for the majority of the contest, then when BYU takes a little bit of a lead, the Aggies fragile mind-set costs them the contest.
Change of venue for this year's Big Dance meeting between the teams, and a change in the result.
Play on the Cougars minus the small number.
2♦ BYU
Bobby Maxwell
Texas A&M vs. BYU -2, at Philadelphia
Delivered the college FREE play winner Wednesday with Miami over Providence and we'll do it here with this one as we play BYU to get the win and cover over Texas A&M.
The best thing to happen to BYU might have been their Mountain West Conference semifinal loss to San Diego State. This team needed something like that to knock them down a notch and get them refocused.
The Cougars have won nine of 11 overall and they were riding a nine-game ATS run until their last three regular season contests.
On the other side is Texas A&M who turned around its season by winning six in a row to close the Big 12 season after opening 3-7. But a disaster in the Big 12 tourney could be lingering with this team as they blew a 21-point second half lead to Texas Tech, losing 88-83 as a 6 1/2-point favorite. Devastating for a team to lose that one.
These teams met last year in the opener with A&M getting a 67-62 win as a one-point favorite. So there is also a revenge factor on the Cougars' minds.
BYU is on ATS runs of 7-3 as a favorite, 7-1 against winning teams and 10-3-1 after a straight-up loss. Play BYU today to pull off a close one, hit their free throws down the stretch and win this one by 7.
2♦ BYU
Maryland +1' vs. California, at Kansas City, Mo.
No mystery here why we're playing Maryland. The Terps played some of their best basketball of the season late in the season to earn their berth in the Big Dance. Meanwhile Cal comes in playing some terrible basketball, stumbling to a 1-3 SU and ATS mark down the stretch.
Cal is just 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS to end the season and lost to USC 79-75 in the Pac-10 quarterfinals on Thursday. The Bears are also on ATS slides of 1-4 on neutral courts, 1-4 against winning teams, 2-7 after a non-cover and 2-5 after a straight-up loss.
Maryland made a run in the ACC tournament to secure its berth, beating N.C. State in the opener, shocking Wake Forest 75-64 as a six-point underdog in the quarterfinals and then battling Duke down to the wire before lostin 67-61 as a nine-point 'dog in the semifinals. And remember the amazing performance this team had to beat North Carolina 88-85 as a 12-point home 'dog late in the season.
The Terps' Greivis Vasquez is a superstar in the making, putting up 17.2 points and 4.8 assists per game and he had a huge performance against the Tar Heels, getting a triple-double, the first for the Terps in 23 years.
Maryland is on ATS runs of 9-4 overall, 4-0 at neutral sites, 4-1 against winning teams and 7-3-2 in non-conference action. Look for the Terps to get this one with relative ease.
4♦ MARYLAND
Karl Garrett
Akron vs. GONZAGA -13 - at Portland, OR
Another comp play winner last night on Bowling Green plus the points, as the G-Man is now 7-2 the last 9 days for free.
Going tonight, lay the points in Portland as Gonzaga enjoys the "home cooking" against Akron.
The 'Zags Spokane campus is not too far away from the Rose Garden, so expect to see plenty of Bulldog backers in the stands this evening. Not that Mark Few's team will need much support, as the Bulldogs have won their last 9, and even better still is the fact they have covered their last 3, and are 5-1 against the spread their last 6 lined games, all in the favored role.
Akron won the MAC tournament for their automatic ticket to the Dance, but they did close the regular season by losing 3 of their final 5.
This is a Gonzaga team that has plenty of experience, and the G-Man is calling for the 'Zags to be dancing late in this tourny.
Lay the double-digits, as Gonzaga makes it look easy in their opening round.
5♦ GONZAGA
Michael Cannon
VCU +7' vs. Ucla, at Philadelphia, PA
I am on a 7-2 run with my last nine overall free plays.
Take the points with Virginia Commonwealth over Ucla in the East Region.
This is a tough spot for the Bruins, who have to travel to Philadelphia for this first round matchup.
Vcu enters this game on the heels of a five-game winning streak, which included a win in the Colonial Athletic Association championship game. The Rams are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.
Ucla is on pointspread slides of 1-5-1 after an ATS loss and 1-4-1 after a SU loss. The Rams are on positive ATS runs of 4-0 against winning teams, 4-1 after a SU win, 10-4 at neutral sites and 17-8-3 in non-conference action.
The venue is what makes this a tough spot to back Ucla and I expect the scrappy Rams to give them a scare here.
Take the points with Vcu as they stay within the number.
2♦ VCU
Western Kentucky +4' vs. Illinois, at Portland, OR
Take the points with Western Kentucky tonight in the South Region over Illinois.
I love the run the Hilltoppers are on right now. They have won 11 of their last 12 down the stretch, including a current 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS run.
This is a team that also stunned Louisville 68-54 as a 19 ½-point neutral-site underdog in November.
Western Kentucky had a nice run in last year’s tournament, posting a pair of wins before losing to Ucla in the Sweet 16, 88-78.
Illinois could be without starting guard Chester Frazier, who’s hand injury kept him out of last week’s Big Ten tournament.
The Fighting Illini are on a 1-3 SUATS slide and are averaging just 59.4 ppg in their last five games.
The Hilltoppers are on ATS runs of 5-0 overall, 4-0 in the Big Dance, 16-5 on neutral courts, 5-1 as a neutral-site dog, 19-7-1 against winning teams and 40-17-1 in non-conference play.
Take the points with Western Kentucky and don’t be surprised to see them pull off the outright win.
4♦ WESTERN KENTUCKY
JACK JONES
North Carolina -25 over Radford
I am playing the Tar Heels today even though I fully expect Ty Lawson will be sitting on the sidelines. The line has dropped almost two points with the news Lawson will be out and that's just kept pace with what my expectations would have been. I know he's the catalyst for the offense, but North Carolina is putting up 90 ppg this year and will be facing a Radford team that went 21-11 with only one game being big enough to earn a point spread, and that was their conference championship against VMI. The Tar Heels will be playing in Greensboro, which is around 50 miles from campus so even without Lawson you can expect the Highlanders to be outmatched down the line. Sure Artsiom Parakhouski put up 16.3 points and 11.2 rebounds per game, but how is he going to do against last year's Player of the Year in Tyler Hansbrough? Not well.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Lakers -13
Off a 1-point home loss to Philadelphia, expect the Lakers to bounce back strong Thursday. The Warrior have been getting it handed to them on the road all season, losing by 9.8 ppg on average. In fact, the Lakers crushed the Warriors 130-113 as a 14.5-point favorite at home earlier this season. The Warriors are 6-20-2 ATS in their last 28 road games vs. a team with a winning home record, 6-20-1 ATS in their last 27 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600, and 15-47-1 ATS in their last 63 games following a SU win. The Warriors are also 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog of 11.0 or greater. We'll lay the points here.
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
Memphis -20 over CS Northridge
The Tigers are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games, while the Matadors are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog of 13.0 or greater. Memphis is a team that will be on a mission in this NCAA Tourney as they felt they should have been a number 1 seed. The Tigers defense is one of the tops in the Nation as they have allowed just 56.9 ppg and 36.2% shooting overall this year and it has been even stingier down the stretch were they have allowed just 44 ppg on an unheard of 29.6% shooting from the floor in their last 4 games. Now that's playing some defense. Oh year they won those 4 games by an average of 21.8 ppg. CS Northridge has had a good offensive year as they have averaged 73.8 ppg overalland 69.6 ppg away from home, but facing Big West defenses is a lot different than facing this one. Speaking of defense, that is not something the Matadors do great. CS Nothridge has allowed 70.2 ppg on the year, including 73.3 ppg when playing away from home. The Matadors have played 7 non-conference foes away from home and they have allowed 78.9 ppg in those games. Bad defense in that spot and now they will take on the 67th ranked scoring offense in the country, as the Tigers have put up 74.1 ppg on the year. I really have a hard time seeing the Matadors putting more than 52 or 53 on the board in this one, while I do see Memphis hitting 75+. The Tigers will be playing with a chip on their shoulders and that cannot be good news for the Matadors today.
3 UNIT PLAY
NOTRE DAME -4.5 over New Mexico
The Lobos are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. win., while the Fighting Irish are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5. We all know how the Lobo's play in The Pit, but this isn't the Pit and they have struggled when taking to the road this year. The Lobos have gone just 6-6 in their true road games, plus another 0-3 in their neutral site games. The Irish stumbled ast home during the middle of the year after haveing a long winning streak at home, but this team is still very tough at home, where they are 13-3 and have outscored their opponents by 12.5 ppg. Defense has not been a strong suit for the Irish this year, but they do allow just 63.1 ppg on 39.9% shooting at home and they have allowed just 64 ppg on 36.8% shooting in their last 5 overall. The Irish have had somne problems scoring of late, but this team still has put up 76.5 ppg on thier home floor this year, including 86 ppg in their non-conf home games. New Mexico can score but their defense has been less than stellar of late as they have allowed 73.8 ppg in their last 5 games. With the way the irish play defense and score at home they should have no problems covering the spread vs a Lobos team that is like a fish out of water when they leave The Pit. Notre Dame by 8+ here.
2 UNIT PLAY
Texas A&M +2.5 over BYU
The Aggies are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 neutral site games as an underdog, while the Cougars are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss. The AgGies had a stron g finish to their season as they had won their last 6 regular season games before losing to Texas Tech in the Big 12 tourney. Down the stretch they had a win at Nebraska, a 15 point home win over Texas and a 10 point home win vs a very strong Missouri squad. BYU has had a nice year themselves as they were 25-7 overall, but their offense has struggled down the stretch as thyey have averaged 67.4 ppg in their last 5 games, which is 10 points lower than their season average. The Aggies offense has taken off of late as they have averaged 79 ppg in their last 5 games. Both teams have played well defensively this year, but I believe the Aggies offense will do more damage than BYU's in this one and get a solid upset win here.
1 UNIT PLAYS
UConn/ Chattanooga Under 145
The Under is 4-0 in Mocs last 4 neutral site games as an underdog, while the Under is 5-1 in Huskies last 6 games as a favorite of 13.0 or greater. Ok, Let's throw out that 6 OT game vs the Cuse for a moment. If we dso that then we will see that the previous 12 UConn games have averaged just 131.8 ppg, with only 2 of those games scoring more than today's total. UConn games have averaged 141 ppg bon the year, while their games away from home have averaged just 131 ppg. UConn plays great defense and should be able to hold a strong Mocs offense doiwn, while their own offense does enough to get the win here. I just don't see more than 140 in this one.
Maryland +1.5 over California
The Terrapins are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. loss, while the Golden Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games. The Bears are just not playing well defensively right now as they have allowed 77.8 ppg in their last 5 games. look for the terps to take advantage and move on in the Big Dance.
DUNKEL
Game 707-708: Binghamton vs. Duke
Dunkel Ratings: Binghamton 54.120; Duke 72.192
Dunkel Line: Duke by 18
Vegas Line: Duke by 22 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Binghamton (+22 1/2)
Game 709-710: Minnesota vs. Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 65.948; Texas 66.598
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1
Vegas Line: Texas by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+4 1/2)
Game 711-712: Radford vs. North Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: Radford 49.955; North Carolina 76.831
Dunkel Line: North Carolina by 27
Vegas Line: North Carolina by 27 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Radford (+27 1/2)
Game 713-714: Butler vs. LSU
Dunkel Ratings: Butler 62.862; LSU 66.984
Dunkel Line: LSU by 4
Vegas Line: LSU by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LSU (-2 1/2)
Game 715-716: TN-Chattanooga vs. Connecticut
Dunkel Ratings: TN-Chattanooga 49.573; Connecticut 75.101
Dunkel Line: Connecticut by 25 1/2
Vegas Line: Connecticut by 21
Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (-21)
Game 717-718: Texas A&M vs. BYU
Dunkel Ratings: Texas A&M 66.887; BYU 69.837
Dunkel Line: BYU by 3
Vegas Line: BYU by 1 1/2
Dunkel Pick: BYU (-1 1/2)
Game 719-720: American vs. Villanova
Dunkel Ratings: American 56.466; Villanova 72.566
Dunkel Line: Villanova by 16
Vegas Line: Villanova by 18 1/2
Dunkel Pick: American (+18 1/2)
Game 721-722: VA Commonwealth vs. UCLA
Dunkel Ratings: VA Commonwealth 63.325; UCLA 71.882
Dunkel Line: UCLA by 8 1/2
Vegas Line: UCLA by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: UCLA (-6 1/2)
Game 723-724: CS-Northridge vs. Memphis
Dunkel Ratings: CS-Northridge 56.034; Memphis 78.730
Dunkel Line: Memphis by 22 1/2
Vegas Line: Memphis by 15
Dunkel Pick: Memphis (-15)
Game 725-726: Maryland vs. California
Dunkel Ratings: Maryland 65.371; California 68.476
Dunkel Line: California by 3
Vegas Line: Pick
Dunkel Pick: California
Game 727-728: Morgan State vs. Oklahoma
Dunkel Ratings: Morgan State 51.101; Oklahoma 71.315
Dunkel Line: Oklahoma by 20
Vegas Line: Oklahoma by 16 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma (-16 1/2)
Game 729-730: Michigan vs. Clemson
Dunkel Ratings: Michigan 65.973; Clemson 69.297
Dunkel Line: Clemson by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: Clemson by 6
Dunkel Pick: Michigan (+6)
Game 731-732: Northern Iowa vs. Purdue
Dunkel Ratings: Northern Iowa 63.184; Purdue 67.744
Dunkel Line: Purdue by 4 1/2
Vegas Line: Purdue by 9
Dunkel Pick: Northern Iowa (+9)
Game 733-734: Mississippi State vs. Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Mississippi State 64.425; Washington 73.058
Dunkel Line: Washington by 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Washington by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-4 1/2)
Game 735-736: Western Kentucky vs. Illinois
Dunkel Ratings: Western Kentucky 62.171; Illinois 64.657
Dunkel Line: Illinois by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: Illinois by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Western Kentucky (+6 1/2)
Game 737-738: Akron vs. Gonzaga
Dunkel Ratings: Akron 58.155; Gonzaga 68.177
Dunkel Line: Gonzaga by 10
Vegas Line: Gonzaga by 13
Dunkel Pick: Akron (+13)
Tom Freese
Golden State Warriors at LA Lakers
Golden St is 5-0 OVER after allowing 100 or more points in their last game and they are 17-7 OVER vs. winning teams. The Warriors are 11-5 OVER on Thursday and they are 11-5 OVER their last 16 Division games. The Lakers are 15-6 OVER as home favorites of 11 or more points and they are 20-8 OVER vs. losing teams. Los Angeles is 8-2 OVER their last 10 Division games and they are 19-7 OVER their last 26 games vs. the Warriors.
Play on: Over
VEGAS EXPERTS
VA Commonwealth at UCLA
Here's a popular upset pick of many that we patently disagree with. VCU's greatest strength (Eric Maynor) will be negated by UCLA's own PG Collison and lets note the Bruins have motivation from an early exit in the Pac 10 Tournament. UCLA is 19-9 ATS after failing to cover the spread in its previous game over the last two seasons. Virginia Commonwealth is 0-6 ATS following back-to-back covers as a favorite. Lay, don't take, the points here!
Play on: UCLA