David Malinsky
Maryland @ California
PICK: Maryland
We wanted to wait this one out until the market move to Cal reached its peak, and now that +2 has become available across the board there is not hesitation to back the better team in this value range, and also one that matches up quite well.
Not much was expected from Maryland this season because of an uninspiring front-court, and when the Terrapins were rocked 108-91 at North Carolina on February 3rd it appeared that they had reached rock-bottom, and might not make any kind of post-season tourney at all. But as great coaches do Gary Williams reached back at that darkest moment. In the locker room of the Dean Smith Center he put in writing that the Terrapins would beat then Tar Heels in their rematch at College Park, and asked for any players that also believed to sign their names. It worked. As part of a late-season surge Maryland beat Carolina 88-85 at home in overtime, and the team is playing with an entirely different confidence level now.
There were also some personnel adjustments, with Sean Mosley entering the starting lineup at guard and Eric Hayes coming off the bench, and it is a move that worked for both players. Mosley adds a defensive and rebounding presence at the position, while a pure scorer like Hayes can often be at his best coming off the bench – he broke his former career high of 19 points twice in last weekend’s A.C.C. tourney, scoring 21 points against N. C. State and 20 against Duke (from Williams - "I think Eric Hayes -- maybe because of his background as being the son of a coach -- he gets a chance to watch for a couple minutes. He's able to see some things that help him when he gets in. And he knows that in the second half he's going to be in there most of the time.")
The insertion of Mosley may not have mattered more in any game than it will in this one. It is the size and defensive ability of the Maryland guards that keys the matchup, with Mosley’s 6-4, and the 6-6 of Greivis Vasquez, making it tough on Jerome Randle and Patrick Christopher to find their usual open looks on the perimeter, and we will also see the 6-2 Adrian Bowie on 5-10 Randle as well. The Cal guards combined to knocked down 128 triples this season, while averaging 33.0 points per game, and if they are negated the rest of the arsenal is nothing special at all, particularly a defense that allowed 44 percent shooting, and only generated 401 turnovers in 32 games. This is a team that lacks post-season experience (two NIT games in three years, and a quick bow-out in the Pac 10 tourney last week); and does not merit the favorite’s role in this setting.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on UCLA -7.5
VCU's worst nightmare is all the upset talk the media has been toying with in this matchup. I think the Bruins take that mumbo jumbo to heart and come away with a big win today. A disappointing end to the Pac-10 season with a loss to rival USC has not been sitting well for the Bruins and they will take those frustrations out here today. Here's the key: Plays against any team (VA COMMONWEALTH) off a blowout win by 20 points or more over a conference rival against an opponent off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite are 40-19 ATS the last 5 seasons. Take UCLA.
TopSportsBets
NORTHERN IOWA +9 Purdue *POD* (5 UNITS)........Here's your typical 5 vs. 12 matchup. However, this isn't the obvious 5 vs. 12 matchup that many people are picking. In fact, the public is all over Purdue here to the tune of 66%. I just don't see it. I think Northern Iowa will give Purdue all they can handle. I have Northern Iowa as a top 55 team in my power rankings. I have Purdue as my 25th ranked team. Purdue of course played the tougher schedule, but has anyone else noticed how poorly Purdue plays against the Missouri Valley Conference?? I HAVE! Purdue is 0-6 ATS in its past 6 games against the Missouri Valley Conference! Purdue is a smart team, and they play well against competition that they know! Against non conference teams, they are a paltry 2-5 ATS in their past 7 non conference games. Northern Iowa comes into todays game extremely hot, arguably one of the hottest teams in the country. This team always plays the better teams tough. Today will be no different. Northern Iowa also shoots an incredible 75.2 percent from the free throw line. That can only help us cover this spread today. Lastly, this total is fairly low, sitting at 124 points. We are getting quite a few points here considering the total. Take NORTHERN IOWA +9 today as they play Purdue tough all the way to the final buzzer, our POD at TopSportsBets.com today!
VCU +8 Ucla (3 UNITS)
WASHINGTON AND MISSISSIPPI ST. OVER 148 POINTS (3 UNITS)
WESTERN KENTUCKY AND ILLINOIS UNDER 125 POINTS (3 UNITS) This is a late night game, and i expect this line to go UP a bit. It might be best to wait this out to get the best possible line.
BUTLER +2 LSU o/u 127…......This should be one of the tightest games of the day. I do think though that Butler will squeeze out a hard fought win. LSU struggles in the NCAA Tourney, that’s the bottom line. They are 0-5 ATS in their past 5 tourney games when favored by this number. They are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 NCAA tourney games as a favorite. LSU is money at home, but away from home or on neutral courts, they aren’t anything special. Overall, this is a slightly bad matchup for LSU. Butler knows who they are, and are a consistent performer, especially in the NCAA Tourney. This team is 21-5 ATS in their past 26 games when being assigned the role of underdog. They are 13-3 ATS in this underdog role on a neutral court. They are also 4-1 ATS in their past 5 NCAA Tourney games. Bottom line, Butler is consistent enough where they can play anytime, anywhere. I like Butler here to pull the small “upset”
MEMPHIS -20 Northridge o/u 131.5…...I’ve already stated to Nick that i actually like Memphis here. I hate laying spreads like this, but i feel Memphis will get it done. They aren’t pleased with their seeding, and i see them taking it out on Northridge. Memphis can lock down defensively on anybody, and a freelance team like Northridge will have trouble scoring. Despite the high line, i think Memphis rolls here by 25+, and look for this game to go UNDER the stated total.
TEXAS AM +3 Byu o/u 139…..We know the Mountain West at topsportsbets.com, and while the conference is solid, it isn’t the Big 12. Texas AM plays best when faced against adversity. They’ve been playing 1 and done over their past 8 games. They’ve had to literally win out just to make it to the Dance. Well now they are here, and i see them excelling against BYU. Texas AM played the tougher schedule, and in my power rankings i have these teams only separated by 3 spots. Texas AM is also 6-1 ATS in their past 7 NCAA tourney games. They are also 6-0 ATS in their past 6 games as an underdog. This teams thrives in the underdog role. Conversely, BYU struggles when it gets to winning time. Look at their performance in their conference tourney. Look at their record during March, not good! They are 1-4 ATS in their past 5 NCAA tourney games. Most importantly, BYU was labeled as a -5.5 favorite, and now the line is down to -3 despite the action being split 50/50. The sharps are on Texas AM, and so am i.
NORTH CAROLINA -25 Radford o/u 163…....So i know JZ has his patented S.F. on this OVER in the first half. That alone should make you play this total to the over. This is one of those games for me where i don’t have a strong feeling either way on any way to bet this game. I do know that North Carolina comes in rocking and ready to steamroll Radford. I have Radford as a top 125 team. However, i have their strength of schedule as top 275. They are going to struggle with the speed of UNC. There is also the unknown of Lawson, even though it won’t matter in the win/loss column for this first game. I’m completely passing here.
CALIFORNIA -1.5 Maryland o/u 140.5….....This still could potentially be an added play. I like Cal here. I have them ranked about 20 spots higher in my power rankings. Cal is a guard oriented team, with a solid presence down low, as well as a proven coach. Sounds like a traditional March power. I think Cal is a decent sleeper in the tourney this year. They draw a tough matchup with Maryland, as they are a solid group as well. The public is backing the underdog Terrapins at a 63% clip so far. I disagree with the general consensus. People are overlooking the Left Coast, and California specifically. Check the board, as Cal might move into the PLAY category!
CHATTANOOGA +20.5 Uconn o/u 145…...I think the public could get burned here. As much as i like Memphis earlier, i like Chattanooga here. Everyone knows how good UCONN has been this year. Heck, they do this year in and year out. Heading into March we always here about how THIS IS THE YEAR for UCONN. But really, what have they done in the NCAA tourney??? Arguably they have been terrible! This team struggles in March, and any true fan with a grip of reality will admit to this. This team is 0-7 ATS in their past 7 NCAA tournament games. This team is obviously then 0-7 ATS in its past 7 NCAA tournament games as a favorite. UCONN is 2-8 ATS in its past 10 games when favored by 13 or more points. Heck, they are even 1-6 ATS in their past 7 games coming into todays game! While the trends aren’t great for Chattanooga, they aren’t the ones favored by 20.5 points. Chattanooga can play, and they will show up today. Of course i feel UCONN wins, but by more than 20???? I doubt it! This potentially could be an added play, depending on the line movement leading up to gametime. I expect this line to climb to at least 21.5. If it goes the other way down to 20 or less, you can bet the “fix” is in.
TEXAS -4 Minnesota o/u 126.5….....I don’t like a side in this game at all. In fact, it’s maybe one of the biggest coin flips of the 1st Round. I do like the UNDER a bit here though if forced to make a play. Overall, these teams are nearly identical in power rankings and strength of schedules. Texas however has quite a meager record in the NCAA tourney when listed as the favorite. This game is a total coin flip, and the UNDER is the only logical choice for me.
MICHIGAN +5 Clemson o/u 137.5…....Another coin flip in my opinion. I can see both points of view on each team, and both the over and under. So of course i’m staying away completely. The public feels the same as i do, as this game is nearly split perfectly down the middle 50/50. The line has come down a full point from the 6 it started at. Clemson is ranked 32 spots higher in my power rankings, and Clemson has played the stronger schedule. Good luck however you choose to play this game, as i have absolutely no opinion.
AMERICAN +16.5 Villanova o/u 129.5….....This could be another public debacle here. Tons of REVERSE LINE MOVEMENT in this game so far. This line opened at 18.5 in most places, and has come down a full 2 points thus far. Why considering the public is all over Villanova????? Something is up in this game, and i advise most people to stay away from Villanova here. I like Nova, and think they can do some damage this year, but against this number, i’m staying completely away. if anything, i see some compelling reasons to take American here. I have American as a top 65 team. Granted, their strength of schedule is the weakest of any team besides Morgan St. I still lean on American because of the reverse line movement, and because Nova hasn’t showed me much when listed as a favorite in the NCAA tournament.
AKRON +13 Gonzaga o/u 133…..I actually like the OVER the most between Gonzaga and Akron. I think Akron will play Gonzaga fairly tough, especially in the first half. Akron has played tough against top 100 competition. Granted, they don’t have the athleticism to hang with Gonzaga for a full 40 minutes, i do see them having their moments. This is a bit of a dangerous game for Gonzaga in my opinion. Because of this, i actually think the OVER is the best play in this game.
BINGHAMTON +22 Duke o/u 137…...Call me crazy but i like Binghamton a bit here. Not enough to make it a play, but surely enough to keep me away from Duke. I think the UNDER is also a good play here. I think both teams will score lower than what’s expected of them, and for this total to stay under 130. I also think Binghamton will hang tough. I have them as a top 80 school. They haven’t faced anyone like Duke, but i just feel 22 is too many points. This line opened at 18, so the public has moved this side a full 4 points, one of the biggest jumps of any sides in the tourney. I think the oddsmakers had it right in the beginning, and the public is hanging themselves with their own rope. Duke is similar to UCONN in that what have you done for me recently in the NCAA tourney??? NOTHING!! Duke is 1-6 ATS in their past 7 NCAA tourney games when favored by more than 13 points. Duke is also 0-4 ATS in its pas 4 NCAA Tourney games as a favorite. Duke traditionally struggles at the beginning of the NCAA Tourney. Vegas knows the cult following of Duke, especially in March Madness, when EVERYONE thinks they know EVERYTHING. Case in point, the moving of this point spread by 4 points. I really, really hope Binghamton stays within the number. I do think this game goes UNDER as well. Stay tuned, as this potentially could be a late night fade the “publicly intoxicated i need to chase and find a winner” crowd!
OKLAHOMA -16.5 Morgan St. o/u 135…...I think Morgan St. is in for a rude awakening. I think Oklahoma comes into the 1st Round as one of the teams with something to prove. I think they manhandle Morgan St, especially in the paint. They have no answer for Blake and they know it. I mentioned Morgan St. earlier, as they have the weakest strength of schedule of any team in the tournament. I think they likely lose by 25 points. This will be a blowout in my opinion. Oklahoma rolls here easily and could move into being a play for us at TSB
Vernon Croy
Mississippi State vs. Washington U
Play: Mississippi State +6.5
We are getting solid line value here Thursday afternoon with the Bulldogs who have been playing their best basketball of the season lately and I look for them to keep that momentum going even after several days off. The Bulldogs are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a dog and they are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 neutral court games. The Huskies are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 neutral court games and they are just 2-7 SU in their last 9 neutral court games. The Bulldogs are better defensively than the Huskies with opponents shooting just 35.9% against them over their last 5 games and just 39.2% against them overall this season. The Huskies are the better rebounding team coming into this game but this Bulldogs team has been playing solid basketball and they have won 6 straight with 4 games being decided by more than 9 points. Take the Mississippi State Bulldogs as my NCAA Free Play for Thursday afternoon and make sure you get on my NCAA 1st Round Oddmaker Oversight of the Year that cashes hands down tonight.
Rocketman
Minnesota U vs. Texas
Play: Texas -4.5
Minnesota comes in at 22-10 on the season while Texas comes in with a 22-11 record this year. I feel like Texas has the better team this year between these two. Minnesota is 12-25 ATS last 3 years when the total is 120 to 129 1/2. Minnesota is 8-38 SU and 15-30 ATS last 3 years as an underdog. Minnesota is 3-13 ATS since 1997 against Big 12 opponents. Minnesota is 2-10 ATS last 3 years in all tournament games. Texas is 8-0 SU and 7-0 ATS last 3 years after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games. Golden Gophers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning SU record. Golden Gophers are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games as an underdog. Golden Gophers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 neutral site games. Golden Gophers are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games overall. Golden Gophers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 neutral site games as an underdog. Golden Gophers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Golden Gophers are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 vs. Big 12. Golden Gophers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5. We'll recommend a small play on Texas tonight!
Scott Rickenbach
Golden State Warriors @ Los Angeles Lakers
PICK: Los Angeles Lakers
It doesn't get much better than this set-up. We don't often lay big points in any sport and particularly the NBA. However, on rare occasions, there are exceptions.
The Lakers suffered a home loss to Philadelphia on Tuesday. That means here we are going to get the Lakers best effort and Los Angeles certainly knows how to step the intensity defensively when they're motivated to do so. As for the Warriors, they are on the other end of the scale when it comes to defense. Golden State is one of the worst defensive teams in the league and they are coming off of a win over the Clippers Tuesday where they allowed 120 points! So, Golden State is off of a win and the Lakers are off of a loss. This one should be a solid home blowout! Consider a small play on the Lakers minus the points on Thursday night!
Dave Price
1 Unit on Warriors/Lakers OVER 233
Golden State is finding its rhythm late in the season scoring 116 or more points in each of its last 5 games and it has gone for 127 and 130 in its last 2. The Lakers scored just 93 points in a bad loss to Philly last game and they will be out for blood tonight at home as a result. When these teams faced off 1 month ago we saw 250 combined points and its going to be a shootout again. The LA LAKERS are 19-5 OVER in home games vs. division opponents over the last 3 seasons and 19-9 OVER as a favorite of 10 or more points this season. Bet the Over.
The Real Animal
3* Northern Iowa +8.5
After hitting just 38 and 34 percent from the floor in the semifinals and finals of the Big 10 Tournament last week, Purdue didn't exactly blow me away as being too impressive. I sense the Boilermakers could get beat today. They were 1-3 SU in their final four regular season games losing to Michigan State, Northwestern, and Michigan. From January 28th to March 8th, Purdue was 1-4 SU on the road. They were 2-9 ATS away from home against good shooting teams or those that hit 47 percent or better from the field. I like the fact that Northern Iowa was 7-0 ATS this year after the midway point of the season (15th game) when facing opponents with a winning record. They were 7-1 ATS on the road this year against opposition that won 60 percent or more of their games this year. Since December 14th, Northern Iowa was an INCREDIBLE 8-0 ATS AS AN UNDERDOG! That includes 7 OUTRIGHT WINS! I love the balance on this team with five starters averaging 8.4 points per game or more. This team plays solid defense allowing 63 points a game. This is a nice number of points to get considering the expectations are for a low scoring game with the posted total in the mid 120's. Plus it doesn't hurt knowing the Panthers have been off 11 days to prepare and certainly watched Iowa play three games in three days last weekend. Take the puppy Panthers here.
John Ryan
Dallas Mavericks vs. Atlanta Hawks
Play: Dallas Mavericks +6
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Dallas they face Atlanta slated to start at 7:00 EST. AiS shows a 73% probability that Dallas will lose this game by 5 or fewer points. AiS reveals no meaningful statistical edge in the rebounding department. This neutral factor actually works against Atlanta noting they are 14-25 ATS (-13.5 Units) when they have the around same number of rebounds as their opponents in a game over the last 2 seasons. Atlanta is just 42-61 ATS (-25.1 Units) versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. Atlanta is certainly hot and are winners of 6 straight games SU and ATS. No NBA teams keep laying at the high level that Atlanta has shown over this 6 game winning streak and there is a very high probability that this game will be a struggle for them based on the AiS. Take Dallas and also look for the upset win as well.
Yankee Capper
NHL
Montreal/Ottawa Over 5.5
Anaheim Ducks -120
NCAA HOOPS
Michigan +4.5
Tony Karpinski
Butler vs. LSU
Play:Butler +2.5This team has played together for 4 straight years and play with chemistry. No one from the team has left early for the NBA and they are a veteran team which doesn't turn the ball over. They remind me of last years Davidson team, or George Mason of a few years ago. Butler is the play in this game.
Take the points with Western Kentucky tonight in the South Region over Illinois. I love the run the Hilltoppers are on right now. They have won 11 of their last 12 down the stretch, including a current 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS run.
This is a team that also stunned Louisville 68-54 as a 19 point neutral-site underdog in November.
Western Kentucky had a nice run in last year’s tournament, posting a pair of wins before losing to Ucla in the Sweet 16, 88-78. Illinois could be without starting guard Chester Frazier, who’s hand injury kept him out of last week’s Big Ten tournament and this would be a huge loss for them. The Fighting Illini are on a 1-3 SUATS slide and are averaging just 59.4 ppg in their last five games.
The Hilltoppers are on ATS runs of 5-0 overall, 4-0 in the Big Dance, 16-5 on neutral courts, 5-1 as a neutral-site dog, 19-7-1 against winning teams and 40-17-1 in non-conference play. Take the points with Western Kentucky and don’t be surprised to see them pull off the outright win.
PREDICTION: 58-56
Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports
226 - 152 run 60 %
Thursday Illinois NCAA
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EZWINNERS'S FREE SELECTION
Game: Morgan State Bears vs. Oklahoma Sooners
(727) Morgan State Bears (+16.5)
The Bears have been a dominant team in the Mid-Eastern
Athletic Conference the last two seasons winning two straight
regular season titles and the conference tournament title this
season to earn their first ever NCAA tournament birth. Morgan
State played their best non-conference schedule in quite some
time this year with three games against NCAA Tournament
participants in Utah, Washington and Maryland. The Bears
pulled off one win in those games with a win over the Terps.
The Bears defense is what they are know for and that defense
should keep them with in this big number. Oklahoma is just 5-13
agianst the spread in their last eighteen games as a netural
court favorite. Take the points.
2009 Free Selections Record 43-34 (55.8%)
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maddux sports - free pick is 60% since
2003
Today's Free Pick is BYU -2.5