SPORTS ADVISORS
NIT
(at New York)
Baylor (24-14, 13-17 ATS) vs. Penn State (26-11, 17-12-1 ATS)
Resurgent Baylor rolled over No. 1 seed San Diego State 76-62 in Tuesday’s NIT semifinals at Madison Square Garden, easily cashing as a one-point chalk for its fourth straight win and third straight cover. After ending the regular season on a 2-10 SU and 1-11 ATS nosedive, the Bears have gone 7-1 SU and ATS in the postseason, with the lone loss coming in the Big 12 title game to Missouri, a team that advanced to the NCAA Tournament’s Elite Eight.
Baylor has scored at least 74 points in each of its NIT starts, while holding its opponents to an average of 68 points per game, and the Bears are now 5-1 SU and ATS at neutral sites this season. Over the last five games, Baylor is shooting a solid 52.2 percent from the floor, while allowing just 42.4 percent shooting. Against San Diego State, the Bears outshot the Aztecs 52 percent to 41.8 percent and went 11-for-22 from three-point range.
Penn State, one of the last teams left out of the NCAA Tournament, built up a 19-point lead against Notre Dame in Tuesday’s other NIT semifinal, then held on for a 67-59 victory as a five-point underdog. The Nittany Lions matched Baylor with their fourth consecutive SU win and third straight spread-cover. Penn State is averaging 74.5 ppg in the NIT, nearly eight points above its season average of 66.9, while allowing 66.5 ppg.
The Nittany Lions are 3-2 SU and ATS on the year at neutral sites, and the SU winner has cashed in each of those contests. In its last five starts, Penn State is shooting 45.9 percent and allowing 43.7 percent shooting from the floor
The Bears are on ATS runs of 6-2 overall, 14-3 at neutral sites, 5-1 as a neutral-site chalk, 5-1 after a victory and 5-2 outside the Big 12, but they are still just 2-7 ATS in their last nine starts from the favorite’s role. The Nittany Lions are on a 9-3 ATS tear in their last 12 non-conference contests and are 4-1 ATS in their last five Thursday outings, but they are also on a 6-17-1 ATS slide as a pup of less than seven points.
For Baylor, the under is on streaks of 12-4-1 overall and 5-2-1 as a favorite, but the over has hit in four of the Bears’ last five non-conference starts, including three of four in the NIT. For Penn State, the over is on runs of 5-1 against teams with a winning percentage above .600, 6-2 with the Nittany Lions catching less than seven points and 5-2 after a SU win, but the under is 4-1 in their last five on neutral courts.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BAYLOR
NBA
Milwaukee (32-44, 38-36-2 ATS) at Philadelphia (38-35, 33-38-2 ATS)
The freefalling Bucks look to keep their slim playoff hopes alive when they travel to the Wachovia Center to face the 76ers.
Milwaukee ended a five-game SU and ATS dive with Monday’s 107-78 road whipping of New Jersey catching three points, salvaging a four-game road trip. The Bucks then returned home to face the Lakers last night and lost 104-98, but covered as a seven-point ‘dog. Milwaukee, which is four games out of the eighth and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference, is in a 5-15 SU slump and a 3-11 ATS drought, with its last nine defeats coming by an average of 13.6 points per game, and eight of its last 12 opponents have scored in triple figures.
Philadelphia, sitting sixth in the Eastern playoff standings, rolled over Atlanta 98-85 Tuesday night as a two-point chalk, ending a two-game SU and three-game ATS skid. After a four-game stretch in which they scored more than 110 points, the Sixers have tallied between 95 and 98 points in their last four contests. However, the defense has surrendered 100 points or more in six of the last eight games.
Philadelphia is on a 4-0 SU and ATS run in this rivalry, most recently posting a 110-105 victory as a 7½-point road pup in January. Going back further, the Sixers are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 clashes.
The Bucks are on a bundle of ATS slides, including 3-11 overall, 1-4 against winning teams, 1-5 on the highway, 2-8 against the Eastern Conference and 1-4 going on no rest. The 76ers are also on nothing but negative ATS streaks, including 3-7 at the Wachovia Center, 1-5 against losing teams, 1-4-1 against Central Division foes and 3-9-1 on Thursday.
For Milwaukee, the under is on runs of 7-2 overall, 14-5 against winning teams and 5-2 against the Atlantic Division. In addition, the under is 37-18-2 ATS in Philadelphia’s last 57 home starts, and in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in four of the last five meetings in Philly. However, the Sixers have topped the total in six of their last eight overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA
Utah (46-28, 37-37 ATS) at Denver (49-26, 40-34-1 ATS)
The surging Nuggets aim to keep their hold on second place in a tight Western Conference race when they host the Northwest Division rival Jazz at the Pepsi Center.
Denver dropped New York 111-104 Tuesday night for its fourth consecutive SU win, but it fell short as a healthy 12½-point home chalk, ending a four-game ATS run. The Nuggets have topped the century mark in each of their last 10 games, going 9-1 SU and 6-4 ATS. During their four-game winning streak, they’re averaging 111 ppg while giving up 102.3 ppg. Denver is outscoring visitors by an average of seven points per game (107-100), and it comes into this contest on a six-game home winning streak (3-3 ATS).
Utah got blasted at Portland 125-104 Tuesday night as a six-point pup for its fourth straight pointspread setback (2-2 SU), dropping the Jazz into third place in the Northwest Division, one game behind the Blazers and 2½ behind Denver. Utah has followed up a 12-game winning streak by splitting its last 10 games, going just 2-8 ATS in that span. Also, the Jazz are 1-5 SU and ATS in their last six on the highway, where they average 101.8 ppg and give up 105.3. Jerry Sloan’s team has scored more than 100 points in 15 of its last 19 games, but has given up at least 100 in eight of the last 12.
Denver has cashed in all three meetings in this rivalry this season, though Utah has won two of those contests outright and is on a 5-1 SU run overall (3-3 ATS) versus the Nuggets. The favorite is on a 21-10-1 ATS streak in this divisional clash and the host has won five consecutive meetings (3-2 ATS).
The Nuggets are on ATS upswings of 4-1 overall, 4-0 against the Western Conference, 6-1 against winning teams and 12-5 in Thursday outings. The Jazz are 17-8 ATS in their last 25 starts after a day off, but along with their current ATS skids of 0-4 overall and 1-5 on the road, they are on pointspread plunges of 0-4 after a SU loss, 1-6 after an ATS setback, 1-8 against winning teams and 2-5 against the West.
The under for Denver is on runs of 4-1 overall and 8-0 against teams with a winning percentage above .600, and the under for Utah is on tears of 14-6 overall, 6-1 against teams with a win percentage above .600, 7-2 against Western Conference foes and 7-3 going on one day’s rest. Finally, the total has stayed low in the last four meetings in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DENVER and UNDER
DUNKEL
Milwaukee at Philadelphia
The Sixers are coming off a 98-85 win over Atlanta and look to build on their 5-1 ATS record in their last 6 games following a win by 10 points or more. Philadelphia is the pick (-8) according to Dunkel, which has the Sixers favored by 9 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-8).
Game 701-702: Milwaukee at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee 112.389; Philadelphia 121.666
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 9 1/2; 190
Vegas Line & Total: Philadelphia by 8; 195
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-8); Under
Game 703-704: Cleveland at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 124.303; Washington 113.197
Dunkel Line & Total: Cleveland by 11; 202
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 705-706: Utah at Denver
Dunkel Ratings: Utah 122.463; Denver 125.498
Dunkel Line & Total: Denver by 3; 212
Vegas Line & Total: Denver by 4 1/2; 209
Dunkel Pick: Utah (+4 1/2); Over
NCAAB
Baylor vs. Penn State
The Bears look to capture the NIT championship and build on their 14-3 ATS mark in their last 17 games at a neutral site. Baylor is the pick (-4) according to Dunkel, which has the Bears favored by 8. Dunkel Pick: Baylor (-4).
Game 707-708: Baylor vs. Penn State
Dunkel Ratings: Baylor 71.393; Penn State 63.639
Dunkel Line: Baylor by 8
Vegas Line: Baylor by 4
Dunkel Pick: Baylor (-4)
NHL
Montreal at NY Islanders
The Islanders look to take advantage of a Montreal team that is just 3-13 in its last 16 road games. New York is the pick (+160) according to Dunkel, which has the Islanders favored straight up by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: NY Islanders (+160).
Game 1-2: NY Rangers at Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: NY Rangers 11.781; Carolina 12.633
Dunkel Line & Total: Carolina by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Carolina (-150); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (-150); Under
Game 3-4: Ottawa at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Ottawa 11.895; Boston 11.699
Dunkel Line & Total: Ottawa by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Boston (-250); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Ottawa (+210); Over
Game 5-6: Montreal at NY Islanders
Dunkel Ratings: Montreal 10.884; NY Islanders 11.014
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Islanders by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line & Total: Montreal (-180); 6
Dunkel Pick: NY Islanders (+160); Over
Game 7-8: St. Louis at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 11.733; Detroit 11.232
Dunkel Line & Total: St. Louis by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit (-320); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+260); Over
Game 9-10: Calgary at Dallas
Dunkel Ratings: Calgary 11.041; Dallas 9.937
Dunkel Line & Total: Calgary by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Calgary (-140); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Calgary (-140); Under
Game 11-12: San Jose at Edmonton
Dunkel Ratings: San Jose 11.229; Edmonton 11.400
Dunkel Line & Total: Edmonton by 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: San Jose (-145); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Edmonton (+125); Under
Game 13-14: Anaheim at Vancouver
Dunkel Ratings: Anaheim 11.713; Vancouver 12.211
Dunkel Line & Total: Vancouver by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Vancouver (-170); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Vancouver (-170); Over
Game 15-16: Los Angeles at Phoenix
Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 10.473; Phoenix 11.117
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix (-125); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-125); Over
Nick Parsons
Anaheim Ducks @ Vancouver Canucks
Play: Canucks -155
It wasn't a pretty game, but the Canucks sure liked their view when it was over. As in from the top of the Northwest Division, with the third seed in the Western Conference playoff picture, one point ahead of a Calgary team they trailed by 13 points two months earlier after an often dull, sometimes disappointing overtime victory over the Wild. This is an entirely new Canucks squad from last year and I believe the young nucleus of players will keep the pedal to the metal as they try to build momentum going into the playoffs. The Ducks barely held on for the victory their last time out and I believe they will be corralled at both ends of the ice this evening by the speedier and more determined Canucks team. Vancouver is 17-12 (+7.4 units) when playing against a team with a winning record; play on the CANUCKS!
Craig Trapp
Baylor vs. Penn State
Play: Baylor -4
Both of these teams have been on fire in this years post season. Baylor is just a few years away from a near death penalty from the NCAA sanctions from prior regimes. Penn State has been the whipping boy of the Big Ten basketball teams since arriving in the Big Ten. Either team should be proud of how far they have come. The winner will take this momentum into the off season and the confidence usually carries over until next years season. Lets look at the records and trends.
Team records:
Baylor: 24-14 SU, 13-16-1 ATS
Penn State: 26-11 SU, 18-12 ATS
Recent Trends:
-Bears are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games as a favorite.
-Bears are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
-Nittany Lions are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 non-conference games.
-Nittany Lions are 6-17-1 ATS in their last 24 games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5.
Baylor is one of those teams that has gotten hot at the end of the year and no matter who they play or where they are tearing them apart. Its too bad this Baylor team did not catch fire earlier in the year as they would have been a tough team in the NCAA Tournament. Penn State has been very good all year but a very weak out of conference schedule kept them out of the NCAA Tournament.
Today Craig is taking the Baylor Bears -3!! The three guard line up for Baylor is so tough to guard for any team as most teams just don't face this type of athleticism. Don't look for a run away as PSU has played most teams close all year. PSU is undersized just as Baylor is so this match up should be very even until late in the game when the three guards of Baylor will take over. SCORE BAY 63 - PSU 58
Tom Freese
Milwaukee vs. Philadelphia
Play: Philadelphia -8
It appears that Philadelphia will make the NBA Playoffs as they are currently the Sixth Seed in the East. They take on a floundering Milwaukee team at home tonight. The Bucks will be watching the playoffs on their television sets. The Bucks are 11 games under .500 and just playing out the string. The Sixers could overtake Miami and become the fifth seed but getting home court advantage in Round One is not likely. Philly should have no trouble with the Bucks. PLAY ON PHILADELPHIA -
Cajun Sports
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Play: Philadelphia 76ers -8.5
The Wachovia Center will be the site of tonight’s clash between Eastern Conference foes the host Philadelphia 76ers and the visiting Milwaukee Bucks. Milwaukee is certainly not going to see any postseason activity with a record on the year of 32-43 SU but they did improve over last season’s 26-56 campaign. This Bucks team saw a five-game improvement on the road this season compared to last season posting a record of 12-27 SU on the highway this year (7-34SU LY). Needless to say they are not playing for anything, couldn’t even call it pride at this point with such a consistent loser over the last five seasons. The Bucks had lost five straight both SU and ATS before pulling the mild upset at New Jersey on Monday night 107 to 78 as a three-point road underdog. We do not expect any surprises from them tonight as they have struggled against the Sixers in both meetings this season with Philly winning both SU and ATS in each contest. The last meeting back on January 7th Philadelphia defeated Milwaukee 110 to 105 as a 7-point road underdog. In that game the Sixers shot 51.5 percent from the field and 53.3 percent from behind the arc. Philly’s guard play has overwhelmed the Bucks this season averaging 52 percent from three-point land against them. In their last meeting the Bucks shot 47 percent from the field and 36.8 percent from behind the arc and this came on their home floor when they played in Philly back in December the Bucks only managed 43.2 percent from the field and a horrible 13.3 percent from behind the arc on 2 of 15 shooting. Philly has won and covered the last four meetings between these two teams and none more important maybe than this one as the Sixers are trying to avoid playing Boston in the first round of the playoffs and every win is crucial. This is especially true when you look at their upcoming schedule which has them playing five of their last seven on the road which includes two against the Cavaliers and one against the Celtics. We will lay the points here as the Sixers roll past a Bucks squad playing out the balance of another losing season.
Graded Selection: 2* Philadelphia 76ers 114 Milwaukee Bucks 90
James Patrick
Jazz vs. Nuggets
Utah travels to the Mile High City for a big game with Denver in NBA Thursday action. The Jazz are 1-5 ATS on the rod and just 1-6 ATS off an ATS loss while the Nuggets are 12-5 ATS in Thursday action and 4-0 ATS against Western Conference opposition. Big Game James Patrick's complimentary selection in Thursday NBA action is Denver Nuggets.
Jimmy The Moose
San Jose Sharks at Edmonton Oilers
Prediction: San Jose Sharks
Two team's headed in opposite directions meet-up in Edmonton tonight. The Sharks have won 5 of their last 7 overall while the Oilers have lost 5 of their last 6. San Jose is 11-3 in their last 14 games played after 2-days rest. In their last 64 vs. a team with a losing record the Sharks are 44-20. Edmonton has also lost 5 of their last 6 home games. In their last 5 vs. a Pacific Division team the Oilers are 1-4. Edmonton slipping out of the playoff race and tonight's loss will hurt. Play on the San Jose Sharks -.
Jeff Benton
For Thursday’s freebie, we’ll head to the Mile High City and lay the small price with the Nuggets against the Jazz.
This line makes absolutely zero sense to me. You’ve got Utah playing its third game in four nights, this being its first since laying a total egg at division rival Portland on Tuesday (125-104 loss as a six-point underdog). The Jazz have failed to cover in four straight games overall, and they’ve lost five of their last six road games both SU and ATS (the only win and cover came in a seven-point victory at Oklahoma City.
On the other hand, Denver has seized control of the Northwest Division thanks to a current run that has seen the team win four in a row and nine of the last 10. That includes six consecutive home wins for the Nuggets. Granted, they cashed in exactly half of those six home wins, but that’s because they were laying really big numbers. The scorebook shows that Denver has won its last six home games by point margins of 7, 13, 11, 25, 13 and 13 points.
Also, going back to a 117-97 rout of these same Jazz on Jan. 25, the Nuggets are 5-2 at home against playoff-caliber competition, with wins over the aforementioned Jazz, as well as the Blazers, Lakers, Hawks and Spurs (only Houston and Boston clipped Denver in Mile High).
If that’s not enough, the home team has won the last five meetings between these teams, including all three this season … with Denver going 3-0 ATS in those contests. In fact, the favorite is 21-10-1 ATS in the last 32 Nuggets-Jazz clashes! Throw in the fact that Utah has now failed to cover in nine straight games as a road underdog and 10 of 11 as a ‘dog period, and I can’t pass up Chauncey, Carmelo, K-Mart and the boys at this cheap price.
4♦ DENVER
Matt Rivers
For Thursday lay the points with the 76ers.
It's a steep price for sure but I just cannot envision anything but a blowout tonight in the City of Brotherly Love.
Milwaukee has been dismal ever since losing both Michael Redd and Andrew Bogut to injuries and besides Richard Jefferson really do not have that much talent on the squad. The Bucks were a surprise first half team as they played above themselves with their pieces in the lineup but that is a thing of the past as these guys are out and the team is pretty much just playing out the string right now. Sure they just pounded the Nets in New Jersey but that was Jefferson going back to the Meadowlands and the team rallying behind their new leader in that one victory against his former team.
Philadelphia should be the fresher team as they did not play last night unlike Milwaukee who just faced Kobe and the Lakers. In their last game the 76ers outclassed the playoff bound Atlanta Hawks in a double digit win and cover. With Andre Iguodala, Andre Miller, Samuel Dalembert, Lou Williams and others I just do not see another less today against a very poor squad in these Bucks.
If there was ever a game that could end 101-79 this is that game!
Tony Weston
Today's Selection:
Of course we came through last night as the Hornets do just enough to give us another Comp Play winner. That puts us at 8-1 our last 9 Comp Plays and 16-5 our last 21 freebies.
We’re doing it again, but we’re switching gears as we’re headed to the college hardwood. We’re going out to Madison Square Garden tonight as we’re taking the Over in the Baylor-Penn State matchup in some junior tournament action.
The number for this matchup is floating around 138 points, depending on where you’re playing it. But considering the way both these teams have been playing lately, they’ll blow right past that.
Consider that coming into this game the Over is on a 3-1 run in Baylor’s last four games and is 4-2 its last six, while Penn State has seen the Over come in 5 of its last 8 contests.
Also, the Over has come in 4 of Baylor’s last 5 non-conference games and it has come in 5 of the Nittany Lions’ last 6 games against teams with a winning percentage above .600.
Keep in mind, also, that over their last 5 games the Nittany Lions have totaled, on average, 141.6 points, while the Bears have totaled, on average, 142.6 points in that same five-game stretch. For the season, Baylor has totaled, on average 146.1 points per game.
These teams are scoring well over 140 points per and will do so again tonight. Take the over as it comes through easily in this matchup.
3♦ BAYLOR-PENN STATE OVER
Sports Gambling Hotline
Milwaukee at PHILADELPHIA -8
For Thursday, go with Philly minus the number at home against Milwaukee.
The Bucks battled hard last night, only to fall at home to the Lakers by 6. True, they did cover as the home dog, but that only puts them on a 3-11 spread run their last 14 games.
Milwaukee has also lost 8 of their last 10 games straight up.
Philadelphia is still jockeying for playoff position, and the 76ers won and covered a big home game on Tuesday, winning by double-digits against the Atlanta Hawks.
The Sixers are on a 4-0 series run, both straight up and against the spread, and we like them here tonight to nab another win and cover against a tired an unrested Milwaukee team.
Play on the 76ers minus the points.
2♦ PHILADELPHIA
Bobby Maxwell
Utah at DENVER -4
The Nuggets are trying to hold on and take the second spot in the Western Conference playoffs, therefore giving them homecourt advantage against everybody except the Lakers - crucial for their success in the playoffs. Tonight they get a struggling Jazz squad so we'll lay the chalk and play the home team.
Utah got pounded by Portland 125-104 Tuesday night as a six-point underdog, its fourth straight ATS loss and they are just 2-2 SU in the last four and sit in third place in the Northwest Division, one game behind the Blazers and 2 1/2 behind the Nuggets.
Denver got a 111-104 win Tuesday at home over the Knicks, but came up short as a 12 1/2-point favorite, ending the Nuggets' four-game ATS streak. They are 9-1 SU and 6-4 ATS in the last 10 games and they are averaging 111 points a game during their four-game winning streak. At home, Denver has rattled off six straight wins.
The Jazz are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games and 1-5 SU and ATS in their last six on the road.
The Nuggets have gotten the cash in all three games this season between these two and the favorite is on a huge 21-10-1 ATS streak in this rivalry. Denver is a much smarter team with Chauncey running the show and controlling the tempo. They can score and their defense is not horrible like it was last season.
Utah is on ATS slides of 1-6 after a non-cover, 1-8 against winning teams and 2-5 against Western Conference squads. Denver is 6-1 ATS in its last seven against winning teams. Play the Nuggets at home to get this one by 10.
3♦ DENVER
Karl Garrett
Utah at DENVER -4'
Outright winner last night on Toronto for free, as the G-Man is now on a 7-2 comp play run the last 9 days.
NBA for Thursday, and the G-Man is laying the points with the home team Nuggets.
Denver is on a roll right now, winning their last 4, and 9 of their last 10 straight up, while covering in 4 of their last 5.
The Jazzmen have cooled a bit of late, splitting their last 10 games straight up, while going just 2-8 against the spread in those 10, failing 4 straight.
The home team in this series has won the last 5 meetings, while the Nuggets have been the spread winner in each of the last 3 tilts. The favorite in the series is on a 21-10-1 spread run the last 32 games contested between the teams!
Right now the Nuggets are just too hot to handle.
G-Man laying the wood with Denver in this Thursday night TNT clash.
1♦ DENVER
JIM FEIST
CLEVELAND CAVALIERS / WASHINGTON WIZARDS
Take CLEVELAND CAVALIERS
Washington has packed in the season, on a 2-9 SU, 4-5-1 ATS run. The last three times they've been double digits dogs they lost by 11, 15 and 32 points. The Cavaliers have won 13 consecutive victories and need to win to stay wrap up the top spot in the East and the NBA Finals. After a rugged, physical game with the Pistons, playing the defenseless Wizards will be a breeze. Play the Cavaliers.