DAVE COKIN
CALGARY FLAMES / DALLAS STARS
Take CALGARY FLAMES
The Dallas Stars are still technically alive in the Western Conference playoff chase, but the reality is they're not going to make the post season. But Calgary will be there, and the Flames are still trying to get that home ice advantage for the first round by snaring the #4 seed. This game is much bigger to Calgary, and the Stars haven't been showing a great deal of interest lately. I'll lean to the Flames to score the road win tonight.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Philadelphia 76ers -8
After giving a great effort against the Lakers last night, it's going to be tough for the Bucks to get right back up for this one against a rested 76ers team fighting to improve their playoff seeding. The Bucks are just 3-11 SU and ATS in their last 14 games and all but mathematically eliminated from playoff contention. Philly has owned the Bucks, winning and covering both meetings this season. In fact, the 76ers are 6-3 SU and 7-2 ATS versus Milwaukee over the last 3 seasons. The Bucks are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings in this series, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record, and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a SU loss. The 76ers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. Lay the number tonight.
Free Selection from Totals4U
Thursday's free selection: Baylor/Penn State over 140
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Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports
235 - 158 run 60 %
Thursday: Hockey San Jose
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EZWINNERS'S FREE SELECTION
Date: Thursday, April 2, 2009
Game: Utah Jazz @ Denver Nuggets
Sport: NBA
Time: 9:35PM CST
(706) Denver Nuggets (-4)
The Nuggets have been red hot, winning nine out of their last ten games and
most of their home wins have been by double digits. The Jazz are 0-9 against
the spread in their last nine games as a road underdog and the favorite in this
series is 21-10-1 against the spread. I look for these trends to continue in this
game. Lay the small number with the Nuggets.
2009 Free Selections Record 50-41 (54.9%)
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Undefeated's system plays 5-1 run
today's pick Utah NBA game OVER the total of 208
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Sportsbob
Baylor vs Penn State
Take Baylor -4.5 for 5 Units
The two teams have similar records in similarly strong conferences...However, Baylor's average margin of victory is twice the Nittany Lions. Baylor's level of play during the last haldf of the season and the tournaments has been outstanding...only one loss in the last 8 and that was too Mizzou. The Bears have been playing like a team on a mission and should pull away late in the game.
Cappers Jungle
San Jose Sharks -135 over Edmonton Oilers
$135 to win $100
Detroit Tigers -130 over Toronto Blue Jays
$130 to win $100
San Jose 10 Dime Play
In their last meeting back in Feb the sharks were much in the same situation as they were back then. Struggling a bit, Lemieux hadn’t scored in 11 games, and the sharks had dropped 5 out of 6 games before beating Edmonton 4-2 back on the 17th. They are on a current 2 game win streak after closing out the month of March with back to back wins to avoid a below .500 record moving them to 8-7. The goals haven’t been coming as easy as they were earlier in the year however the sharks have maintained 1st place in the pacific division. With a win tonight they can all but secure the top spot in the western conference and make it impossible for Detroit to catch them with only a handful of games left. Don’t get us wrong Edmonton will be playing their hearts off tonight needed to pull together a nice win streak to have a chance to get a playoff spot but their 3-5 loss to Anaheim really took the wind of their sale on Tuesday. Look for San Jose in this one scoring 2 or 3 goals.
Detroit 10 Dime Play
There is one thing about spring training ball that I look at. Are guys getting on base? That’s the case for the tigers this spring training however they are not producing as many runs as they should be. Granderson has been playing great ball for the tigers as they hope that can continue into the regular season. Detroit lost 9-3 yesterday to future HOF’er Tom Glavin, But that was because Justin Verlander couldn’t get out of the 2nd inning. He gave up 5 runs, and before he was pulled from the game he gave up 7 total. Today is going to be a little bit of a different story. In Toronto’s past 4 losses they have put up runs of 1, 2, 1, and 1. Their ace Halladay just pitched yesterday as well and they are coming off a win. They have only won back to back games 3 times in spring training. We expect to see a lot of the rookie David Purcey today for Toronto and his inexperience will end up hurting him today. 10 Dime Winner on Detroit
MTi Sports
The Bucks are 0-6 OU (-21.5 ppg) since November 02, 2008 as a dog after a game at home after a loss in which they made more baskets than their opponent and the Seventysixers are 0-5 OU (-21.3 ppg) since November 23, 2008 as a home favorite with at most one day of rest after a win in which the percentage of their baskets that were assisted was at least ten percentage points higher than their season-to-date average. In addition, Philadelphia is 0-6 OU (-17.4 ppg) since January 26, 2009 after a win at home in which Thaddeus Young was not the Seventysixers' high scorer and 0-5 OU (-17.1 ppg) since February 07, 2008 at home after a win in which Andre Miller had at least 10 assists.
Take the UNDER.
John Ryan Sports
Utah Jazz @ Denver Nuggets
Pick: 3 units: Under 208
Ai Simulator 3* graded play Under Denver/Utah. AiS shows a 72% probability that 205 or fewer points will be scored in this game. Supporting this graded play is a strong system that has posted a 33-12 UNDER mark for 73% victories since 2003. Play under with home teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 and is an explosive offensive team scoring 103+ points/game on the season facing an opponent after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games. Here is a second system that has gone 89-41 UNDER for 69% victories since 1996. Play under with all teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 and is a good shooting team shooting >=46% on the season facing an hot shooting opponent with 3 straight games making >=47% of their shots. Denver is a rock solid 12-2 UNDER (+9.8 Units) when playing against a team with a victorious record - 2nd half of the season this season; 8-1 UNDER (+6.9 Units) versus good shooting teams making >=46% of their shots in the 2nd half of the season this season. take the UNDER.
Matt Fargo
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Washington Wizards
PICK: Washington Wizards
Washington has dropped three straight games, the last two which have been on the road and it catches Cleveland in a very tough spot. The Cavaliers were off last night but are coming off a hard-fought win against Detroit two nights ago and they have a game at Orlando tomorrow night. That game against the Magic will likely seal home court advantage throughout the Eastern Conference playoffs so Cleveland will not be up for using all of its energy tonight. The Cavaliers have won a franchise record 13 straight games so you know the lines are now overpriced and that is certainly the case here. Washington has been a home underdog on numerous occasions this season but never by this many points. One of the closest times was against these same Cavaliers back in January when they were getting nine points and they won that game outright. Washington is 3-5 in its last eight home games but none of those five losses were by double-digits and the last two setbacks came by just a bucket each. Washington has not been a very good team when playing in the second game of a back-to-back set as it has won only once in 17 tries. However we are not asking the Wizards to win and they have been more solid when the second game is at home. They are 1-4 in those situations but 2-3 against the number which is certainly better than their straight up and against the spread records of 0-12 and 3-8-1 respectively. Cleveland has played only one road game in its last nine contests overall and has not gone on the road since March 22nd so the travel aspect could be a difficult one for sure. Washington falls into a very solid contrarian situation as well. You play on home underdogs of 10 or more points that have lost at least lost 12 of their last 15 games and going up against an opponent that has won at least eight of their last 10 games. This situation is 38-14 ATS (73.1 percent) since 1996. Gilbert Arenas will be back in the lineup after putting up a respectable 15 points and dishing out 10 assists in his season debut against Detroit last Saturday and he adds another weapon that will keep Washington within this inflated number. 3* Washington Wizards
Ben Burns
San Jose Sharks at Edmonton Oilers
Prediction: Under
Edmonton suffered a disappointing 5-3 loss to the Ducks last time out. While that game finished well above the number, the Oilers have typically responded to those type of losses with a better defensive effort in their next game. In fact, the 'under' is 15-4-1 the last 20 times that they were coming off a loss by two goals or more.
It's true that the Sharks bring some dangerous offensive weapons to the table and also that they come in averaging a respectable 3.2 goals per game. However, a closer look shows that they've only managed seven goals over their past three games and that they've scored more than three goals just twice during their last 11.
The San Jose defense has more than picked up the slack. Last time out, the Sharks held the Flames to a single goal, en route to a 2-1 win. That marked the fourth time in six games that they held an opponent to two goals or less and fifth time in six games that the opposing team scores three or less. For the season, the Sharks are allowing just 2.5 goals per game, which ranks among the best in the league.
The Sharks have seen the 'under' go 19-11 this season, when playing a road game with a total of 5.5. Looking back further and we find the 'under' at a profitable 107-71 their last 178 road games with a total of 5.5. During the same stretch, the Oilers have seen the 'under' go 129-83 when playing a home game with a total of 5.5.
Looking at the series history and we find the 'under' at 7-1-2 the last 10 times that these teams faced each other. It's also interesting to note that the 'under' has gone 11-1-3 the last 15 times that the Oilers played in the month of April. Consider the Under 5.5.
LT Profits
New York Islanders +160
The Montreal Canadiens are still fighting for a playoff spot while the New York Islanders have the fewest points in the NHL, but the Canadiens could be walking right into a trap here, giving the Isles nice value at this price.
Despite their terrible overall record, the Islanders have very pesky vs. probable playoff teams lately, beating the Red Wings and Blackhawks outright and taking the Flyers to a shootout, all within their last seven games. Even in their 5-3 loss to the Capitals last night, the Isles held a 3-2 lead with less than 10:00 left. Perhaps most importantly, they did go into Montreal and upset these Canadiens 3-2 three weeks ago.
Now the initial gut instinct would be to back the Canadiens in a revenge spot vs. an inferior team, but another problem for Montreal here is their dismal recent play on the road. The Habs are still just 3-6 in their last nine games overall despite beating Chicago at home last night, and they are a poor 3-13 in their last 16 road contests. Thus, they now have a losing 15-19-3 record on the road for the entire season.
Given these nice odds on the Islanders here, we would much rather bank on the Montreal road struggles to continue and put less emphasis on the revenge factor in this spot.
Pick: Islanders +160
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Cavs/Wizards UNDER 194
The Cavs have played to the under in 5 straight games and both matchups in this series have found their way under the number this season. Cleveland has really been solid on the defensive end this season and has held each of its last 5 opponents to 88 points or less. The Under is 16-5 in Cavaliers last 21 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400, 5-1 in Cavaliers last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400, and 4-0 in Cavaliers last 4 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. With Washington having just played last night and with Cleveland more worried about a date with the Magic tomorrow, I'll take the Under here.
Drew Gordon
Utah +4' at DENVER
7-1 run L8 Free Play releases, including the Bobcats easily keeping it within the number against the Celtics 111-109 in double-overtime last night! I keep it rolling on the pro Hardwood with another FREE winner tonight...
By Utah's own admission, this is one of the most (if not the most) critical road game of the season for their team. After getting pounded by the Trail Blazers last night, this game brings a whole other level of importance for Jerry Sloan and his troops. The Jazz are now 0-10 on the road versus their fellow Western Conference playoff contenders, and being that they're currently slotted to play the Nuggets if the postseason started today, they need to prove (to themselves as well as to Denver) that they can win in hostile territory.
While there's no doubt Denver is playing well, winners of 9 of their L10 games, I'm not particularly impressed with their wins over doormats like the Clippers, Thunder, Nets, Wizards, Warriors, or Knicks over that span... Are you?! Truth be told, the Nuggets have benefited from a relatively easy schedule over their last 10 (for the most part), but tonight, they face a desperate Jazz LOOKING to make a point. Expect Denver to get a little bit exposed in this contest, as they're good, but overvalued after roughing up a bunch of sorry team of late.
Finally, I know full well the Nuggets come into this contest 3-0 ATS versus this Jazz team this season. However, that being said, and considering their loss at Portland last night, doesn't the line on this contest seem a bit fishy to you? It definately does to this 'Capper, as based on the trends and recent road play of the Jazz, you'd expect to have to lay more to play Denver. So what does that tell us? That oddsmakers know the Jazz are coming to play tonight, and quite frankly, it wouldn't surprise me in the least if they got the outright win here... This game is VERY important to the Jazz, & I expect they'll play accordingly.
Take Utah plus the points over Denver in this NBA match up.
3♦ UTAH
Bobby Maxwell
Utah at DENVER -4
The Nuggets are trying to hold on and take the second spot in the Western Conference playoffs, therefore giving them homecourt advantage against everybody except the Lakers - crucial for their success in the playoffs. Tonight they get a struggling Jazz squad so we'll lay the chalk and play the home team.
Utah got pounded by Portland 125-104 Tuesday night as a six-point underdog, its fourth straight ATS loss and they are just 2-2 SU in the last four and sit in third place in the Northwest Division, one game behind the Blazers and 2 1/2 behind the Nuggets.
Denver got a 111-104 win Tuesday at home over the Knicks, but came up short as a 12 1/2-point favorite, ending the Nuggets' four-game ATS streak. They are 9-1 SU and 6-4 ATS in the last 10 games and they are averaging 111 points a game during their four-game winning streak. At home, Denver has rattled off six straight wins.
The Jazz are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games and 1-5 SU and ATS in their last six on the road.
The Nuggets have gotten the cash in all three games this season between these two and the favorite is on a huge 21-10-1 ATS streak in this rivalry. Denver is a much smarter team with Chauncey running the show and controlling the tempo. They can score and their defense is not horrible like it was last season.
Utah is on ATS slides of 1-6 after a non-cover, 1-8 against winning teams and 2-5 against Western Conference squads. Denver is 6-1 ATS in its last seven against winning teams. Play the Nuggets at home to get this one by 10.
3♦ DENVER
Karl Garrett
Utah at DENVER -4'
Outright winner last night on Toronto for free, as the G-Man is now on a 7-2 comp play run the last 9 days.
NBA for Thursday, and the G-Man is laying the points with the home team Nuggets.
Denver is on a roll right now, winning their last 4, and 9 of their last 10 straight up, while covering in 4 of their last 5.
The Jazzmen have cooled a bit of late, splitting their last 10 games straight up, while going just 2-8 against the spread in those 10, failing 4 straight.
The home team in this series has won the last 5 meetings, while the Nuggets have been the spread winner in each of the last 3 tilts. The favorite in the series is on a 21-10-1 spread run the last 32 games contested between the teams!
Right now the Nuggets are just too hot to handle.
G-Man laying the wood with Denver in this Thursday night TNT clash.
1♦ DENVER
Sports Gambling Hotline
Milwaukee at PHILADELPHIA -8
Free play winner # 3 in a row on Wednesday, as Charlotte stays inside the number at Boston.
For Thursday, go with Philly minus the number at home against Milwaukee.
The Bucks battled hard last night, only to fall at home to the Lakers by 6. True, they did cover as the home dog, but that only puts them on a 3-11 spread run their last 14 games.
Milwaukee has also lost 8 of their last 10 games straight up.
Philadelphia is still jockeying for playoff position, and the 76ers won and covered a big home game on Tuesday, winning by double-digits against the Atlanta Hawks.
The Sixers are on a 4-0 series run, both straight up and against the spread, and we like them here tonight to nab another win and cover against a tired an unrested Milwaukee team.
Play on the 76ers minus the points.
2♦ PHILADELPHIA