Philadelphia (40-37, 36-39-2 ATS) at Chicago (38-40, 40-37-1 ATS)
The improving Bulls, looking to keep their hold on the seventh seed in the Eastern Conference, play host to the sixth-place 76ers at the United Center.
Chicago topped New York 110-103 Tuesday night but fell just short as an eight-point home chalk, halting a two-game ATS uptick. The Bulls have gone 9-3 SU (7-5 ATS) in their last 12 starts, cracking 100 points in 10 of those games and scoring at least 97 in all 12. In their last five starts, they’ve averaged 111.8 ppg, a 3-pointer better than their opponents, and on their home floor this year, the Bulls are putting up 104.1 ppg and allowing 99.8.
Philadelphia fell to Charlotte 101-98 Tuesday for its second straight loss on a three-game road trip, but the Sixers covered as a 4½-point road underdog to improve to 4-1 ATS in their last five outings (3-2 SU). Unlike the Bulls, Philly has topped the century mark just once in its last eight games, including an embarrassing 96-67 loss at New Jersey on Sunday as a 2½-point favorite. On the road this season, the 76ers have averaged 96.5 ppg and allowed 100.2.
Philadelphia is 4-1 SU (3-2 ATS) in the last five meetings in this rivalry, including a 103-95 overtime win catching 1½ points in December on its last trip to Chicago. Philly also posted a 104-101 home win last month but came up just shy of covering as a 3½-point chalk. The 76ers are 4-1 ATS on their last five trips to the United Center, the road team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings overall, and the underdog has cashed in seven of the last eight battles.
The Bulls are in an 11-24 ATS rut against the Atlantic Division, but the ATS trends are all positive from there, including 22-11-1 overall, 10-3 at home, 6-2 as a home chalk and 11-3-1 against winning teams. The 76ers are on ATS runs of 4-0 after a day off and 6-1 as a road pup of five to 10½ points, but they’ve gone just 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 Thursday contests.
The under for Chicago is on a 4-0 stretch in Thursday games, but otherwise the team is on “over” rolls of 6-0-1 against winning teams, 5-2 against Atlantic Division foes and 6-3-1 after a SU win. The over for Philly is on tears of 6-1 on the highway, 16-5-2 after a SU loss, 4-0 with the Sixers as a road ‘dog and 5-0-1 against losing teams. Finally, the over is 5-0-1 in the last six series meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Denver (53-26, 43-35-1 ATS) at L.A. Lakers (62-16, 40-38 ATS)
The surging Nuggets, who now stand second in the Western Conference, travel to Staples Center to take on the Lakers, who have already locked up the top seed in the West and are battling Cleveland for home-court advantage throughout the playoffs.
Denver has posted four straight double-digits wins (3-1 ATS), including a 122-112 victory last night over Oklahoma City, though the Nuggets fell short of covering as a heavy 13-point home favorite. Denver is a scorching 13-1 SU (9-5 ATS) in its last 14 starts, cracking the 100-point mark in all 14 games and winning by double digits 10 times. In its last five outings, Denver is averaging an eye-opening 115.4 ppg and giving up 102.2.
Los Angeles ripped Sacramento 122-104 Tuesday night as an overwhelming 12½-point road chalk for its fourth straight victory (2-2 ATS). The Lakers are 12-3 SU in their last 15 games, though they’ve been a middling 8-7 ATS in that stretch, including 2-4 ATS in their last six starts. Los Angeles has put up an average of 98.2 ppg and given up 92.4 ppg in its last five outings, and at home this season, the Lakers are averaging 107.7 ppg and allowing 98.0.
L.A. is 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS in the last 10 clashes between these two, though Denver snapped a nine-game slide in the most recent series meeting Feb. 27, winning 90-79 as a two-point home pup. The Lakers are 10-1 ATS in the last 11 contests at Staples Center, and the home team is on a 6-2 ATS run.
The Nuggets sport positive ATS streaks of 7-1 overall, 4-0 on the road, 4-0 as a road ‘dog, 4-0 against winning teams and 7-0 against the West, but they are also just 18-38-1 ATS in their last 57 starts as a road pup of five to 10½ points. The Lakers, meanwhile, have dropped four of their last five ATS decisions at home (all as a favorite), but they are on a 7-1 ATS roll in Thursday games.
The under for Denver is on runs of 4-0 on the road, 6-0 against winning teams, 6-1 on the second of back-to-back nights and 20-8 from the underdog role, and the under for Los Angeles is on stretches of 20-8-1 overall, 7-0 at Staples, 5-0 against winning teams, 10-2 after a day off and 16-5-1 with the Lakers favored. Furthermore, in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in the last six meetings overall and is 9-3 in the last 12 contests in Los Angeles.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. LAKERS and UNDER
NATIONAL LEAGUE
L.A. Dodgers (2-1) at San Diego (1-2)
The Dodgers send 21-year-old left-hander Clayton Kershaw (5-5, 4.26 ERA last year) to the hill to wrap up a four-game series at Petco Park against the N.L. West rival Padres, who will counter with right-hander Kevin Correia (3-8, 6.05 ERA with the Giants last season).
On Wednesday night, Los Angeles put up three runs in the seventh inning on its way to a 5-2 victory in San Diego. The Dodgers are on runs of 17-7 as a favorite and 18-8 inside the division. The Padres have won four of their past five against lefties, but they are on skids of 2-7 at home, 3-9 in N.L. West play, 5-13 at home against left-handers and 18-42 as an underdog.
The Dodgers are 9-3 in the last 12 clashes between these two teams.
Kershaw is opening his second year in the majors, after making 22 appearances (21 starts) in 2008. The Dodgers won in his final five starts last season, as the youngster went 3-0 with a pair of no-decisions. Kershaw made two short relief appearances in the postseason, both in the losing bid against the Phillies in the NL Championship Series, allowing one run on one hit and two walks in two innings.
Kershaw was 2-3 with a 5.36 ERA in 11 road appearances (10 starts) last season, and he went 2-0 with a 4.00 ERA in three starts against the Padres, getting a no-decision in his one outing at Petco. And with Kershaw starting, the Dodgers are on runs of 5-0 on grass, 4-0 in division contests and 4-0 with the left-hander favored.
Correia made 19 starts in 25 appearances for San Francisco last season. After his final loss – a 7-0 setback against Pittsburgh in which he allowed three runs on seven hits in 4 1/3 innings on Sept. 5 – Correia came out of the bullpen in his final five appearances, allowing 12 runs (all earned) on 18 hits and four walks in just 6 1/3 innings, for a bloated 17.06 ERA.
Correia fared much better against the Dodgers, going 1-0 in with a 3.65 ERA in three appearances (two starts) last season.
The under has hit in the Dodgers’ last five division starts and is on a 5-0 stretch for San Diego, but the over is on a 5-2 run with L.A. favored, and the over for the Padres is on runs of 10-4 in the N.L. West and 7-3-1 with San Diego a home ‘dog.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. DODGERS
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Oakland (2-1) at L.A. Angels (1-2)
The defending A.L. West champion Angels conclude their season-opening series by sending right-hander Jared Weaver (11-10, 4.33 ERA in 2008) against the Athletics and 21-year-old rookie left-hander Brett Anderson.
Los Angeles blew a 3-0 seventh-inning lead Wednesday night, giving up three runs in the eighth and three more in the ninth to lose to Oakland by a 6-4 count for the second straight game. Including last year’s playoffs, the Angels are on a 2-6 skid at home, but they remain on several hot streaks, including 5-0 in Thursday contests and 16-8 in their last 23 division tilts. The A’s are on a 10-3 surge against right-handers but otherwise remain in ruts of 2-6 overall (all in division play), 4-13 in Game 4 of a series and 17-35 on the highway.
Despite losing the last two nights, Los Angeles still holds a slim 11-10 advantage in the last 21 games of this rivalry, dating to the beginning of last season.
Weaver dropped off a bit last season after a sterling first two years in the majors, with his ERA jumping from 3.91 in 2007 to 4.33 in 2008 over 30 starts and 176 2/3 innings, both career highs. The Angels went an even 5-5 in his last 10 starts, with Weaver going 3-2 with five no-decisions. But he did notch Los Angeles’ lone playoff win, a 5-4 victory at Boston in which he threw two innings of scoreless relief.
Weaver was 6-5 with a 3.71 ERA in 14 home starts last year, and he was 0-1 with a minuscule 2.08 ERA in two starts against Oakland, collecting 16 strikeouts in 13 innings. In seven career starts against the A’s, he’s 2-2 with a 2.56 ERA. The Angels are on a 5-1 run in Weaver’s last six home outings.
Anderson, who notched three wins and had a 2.83 ERA in spring training, spent last year between Class A Stockton and Double-A Midland, going a combined 11-5 with a 3.69 ERA in 20 appearances (19 starts).
The over is on runs of 4-0 with Oakland wrapping up a four-game series, 5-1-1 for Los Angeles against right-handers and 7-2 for the Angels in division play. But the under for L.A. is on rolls of 37-14-3 in Game 4 of a series and 5-2 with Weaver a favorite, and in this rivalry, the under is 32-15 in the last 47 meetings in Los Angeles and 5-0 in Weaver’s last five starts versus the A’s.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. ANGELS and UNDER
Cajun Sports
Philadelphia 76ers vs. Chicago Bulls
Play: Chicago Bulls -6
The United Center will be the site of tonight’s battle between the host Chicago Bulls and the visiting Philadelphia 76ers. The Bulls will be looking to win and get the split on the season series between these two; they won the first meeting of the season back on November 30th in Philly 103 to 92 as a 6-point road underdog. Since that win they have lost both meetings including a home loss on December 12th 95 to 103 as a 1.5 point home favorite and then most recently they lost at Philadelphia on March 13th 101 to 104 as a 3-point road underdog. The Bulls have been solid at home this season posting a record of 26-12 SU and 21-17 ATS. Since the All-Star break the Bulls have been almost unbeatable posting a record of 12-1 SU and 10-3 ATS at the United Center. The 76ers are playing the final game of the three-game road trip that has seen them lose the first two and they host NBA leading Cleveland on Friday in Philly. Not a good situation for the 76ers and the Bulls should be able to exploit it and come away with the win and cover. Database research has uncovered an NBA system that is active for tonight’s contest and it tells us to Play AGAINST NBA conference road teams coming off a SU loss, ATS win and going ‘over’ in their last game, these teams are 8-23 ATS this season. If our Play AGAINST team is installed as an underdog their record is 7-19 ATS and if they were on the road in their last game their record is 3-12 ATS this season. Our TPR Index projects a Bulls win by 8.1 points over the 76ers tonight. Our Math Model Index also has the Bulls covering by 2.2 points over the current line of 6 points. Lay the chalk with the host as the Bulls get the SU and ATS win to even the season series against the 76ers.
Graded Selection: 2* Chicago Bulls 109 Philadelphia 76ers 96
James Patrick Sports
Nuggets vs. Lakers
The Lake Show host the Denver Nuggets in NBA action and this series has seen the home team cash winning tickets in 6 of 8 games and the Nuggets are just 1-10 in Tinsel Town. The Big Man's complimentary selection in the NBA is Los Angeles Lakers.
Tom Freese
Phoenix at San Jose
San Jose is 22-8-1 UNDER vs. losing teams and they are 15-6 UNDER off a win. The Sharks are 6-2 UNDER vs. an opponent that allowed 5 or more goals in their last game and they are 9-4 UNDER after allowing 2 or less goals in their last game. Phoenix is 20-8 UNDER off a loss by 3 or more goals and they are 5-1 UNDER on Thursday. The Coyotes are 4-1 UNDER when their opponent scored 2 or less goals in their last game and they are 5-0-1 UNDER their last 6 visits to San Jose. PLAY ON 'UNDER'
Big Al Mcmordie
Milwaukee Brewers at San Francisco Giants
Prediction: San Francisco Giants
At 7:05pm our member selection is on the San Francisco Giants over the Milwaukee Brewers. Will this be the year that Matt Cain finally has numbers in the won-loss category that match his other dominant statistics? The 24-year-old righthander only managed to put up 15 wins in 66 starts over the past two seasons despite a low, sub-4.00 ERA, and tons of strikeouts. There is no doubt that he has incredible stuff, but the lack of punch in the Giants' lineup over the past few seasons has not helped. Last year, the Giants were the only team in baseball with fewer than 100 team home runs (94) and while the changes they've made have not added any substantial power to the lineup likely to change that, there is more speed on the roster this year, and the ability to get on base and score runs has almost certainly been improved. Milwaukee lefthander Manny Parra is entering his third season in the Majors and despite some decent overall numbers in 2008 -- his first full season in the Majors -- Parra had a rough time away from Miller Park, going 4-5 with a 5.70 ERA in 13 starts on the road. Expect the Giants to play some small ball and jump on top of Parra early, giving Cain something very valuable that he doesn't get that often: a lead with which to work. Take the Giants.
Jimmy The Moose
Montreal Canadiens at Boston Bruins
Prediction: Over
The Canadiens are on the verge of falling out of the playoff race so they'll finght hard for the two points in this one. Both team's have the offensive weapons to put up a lot of goals and I see this one being a high scoring game. Price hasn't played very well for the Canadiens and he should be between the pipes tonight. The Bruins always love to beat Montreal so they'll be up for this one. The over is 12-4-4 in Montreal's last 20 road games. The over is 7-2 in the Bruins last 9 games vs. a team with a winning record. Play the over.
Scott Rickenbach
Florida Panthers @ Atlanta Thrashers
PICK: Florida Panthers
The Panthers money line price could rise today and end up being somewhat "steep" but, even if it does, there will still be value here with Florida on the money line. Currently the price is sitting right around -150 and, as long as the Panthers remain alive in the playoff race, there will be no lack of effort here. They've still got a shot at the post-season and they've also got revenge on their minds here. They lost to Atlanta last week and it's payback time this week!
The Panthers have been much better defensively and in goal this season than the Thrashers have. Also, Atlanta is currently mired in a power play slump and Ilya Kovalchuk has struggled to find the net recently. It wasn't that long ago that it appeared that the Thrashers were going to close the season on a decent run. However, Atlanta has since fallen on hard times again and they won't be able to match the intensity of the playoff-hungry Panthers here. Consider a small play on Florida on the money line for Thursday night.
Dwayne Bryant
Oakland at LA Angels
Bet: LA Angels -125
The Angels have been one of the best home teams in MLB over the last couple years. After losing back-to-back home games in this series, I look for the Halos to rebound tonight.Jered Weaver has pitched very well against Oakland in his career. In seven career starts vs. the A's, Weaver owns a 2.56 ERA and 0.99 WHIP with the A's batting just .186 against him. Weaver also had a 36/14 K/BB ratio in those 45.2 IP.21-year old A's lefty Brett Anderson makes his first MLB start and the situation stacks the odds against this youngster. I have to back the Angels at home off back-to-back home losses with Weaver on the mound against a young lefty making his first-ever MLB start.
Jeff Benton
Got back on track with Wednesday's free play winner on Washington plus the points against Cleveland. I'm now 9-4 over the last 13 days with freebies and 6-1 with my last seven NBA complimentary releases! For Thursday’s freebie, we’ll go ahead and grab the big points with the Sacramento Kings at home against Houston.
Obviously, there’s no comparison between these teams from a talent or record standpoint. The Rockets are going to the playoffs and quite possibly as the No. 2 seed in the stacked Western Conference, while the Kings almost certainly are going to finish with the worst record in the league.
Still, the series history between these teams is impossible to ignore. While Houston has posted a pair of double-digit victories over Sacramento this season (107-96, 94-82, both at home), the Kings got the cash both times as a 13-point underdog. Despite a pretty crappy group of players, Sacramento has now cashed in six consecutive matchups with Houston (all as an underdog) since the start of the 2007-08 season, including two upset wins at home.
Another thing to consider: Even if the Rockets get up big in this game, we’ve got a great shot at a backdoor cover for the simple reason that Houston plays tomorrow night against the Warriors (another up-tempo squad). And with the No. 2 seed in the West well within sight, Rockets coach Rick Adelman is much more concerned with winning and conserving energy for the next game than he is leaving his starters in so he they can blow teams out of the water.
Finally, the Rockets once again are struggling on the road, having dropped three in a row SU and ATS as a visitor. They’re also 1-5 ATS in their last six against teams from the Pacific Division and a money-burning 6-11 ATS when laying eight points or more. Whatever this number ends up being, I guarantee it's going to be inflated so we’ll take the value – and don’t be surprised if the Kings make a game of this.
4♦ SACRAMENTO KINGS
Matt Rivers
For Thursday take the 76ers in the Windy City.
I have been fading da Bulls for the last little bit now and will continue to do just that right now. Sure Chicago is about to clinch a playoff spot meaning they should be properly motivated and sure they do have some talent with Derrick Rose, Ben Gordon, John Salmons and a few others but Chicago is just not that good and I do not trust them at all.
Philadelphia has been playing pretty well ever since the Mo Cheeks firing and is tuning up for the playoffs. They did lose Elton Brand earlier in the season but Andre Iguodala, Andre Miller, Samuel Dalembert and the 76ers are a pretty solid and dangerous team that easily can walk off the floor the victors today. They have covered four of five and not only could cover this game and lose like they did on Tuesday in Charlotte but could easily win this game and I would not be surprised in the slightest.
Vinny Del Negro's squad had a great March and in the still semi weak East do deserve to make the playoffs. But this team has not been all that at all of late as they have failed to cover in four of five and the lone cover was half a miracle. In that nine point win over the Nets the game was tied with two minutes to play and New Jersey went ice cold and fouled late leading to the tough tough beat if you had Lawrence Frank's boys.
Either team can win this game, period!
Craig Davis
For my 4th free play winner in five days, I’m taking the Yankees and Orioles OVER the total. Though I really like the addition of AJ Burnett in the Yankees rotation, I do know that he has allowed some serious runs when facing the O’s in the past. In three meetings last season, Burnett allowed 17 ERs in 14.2 IP to Baltimore and recorded just one win in those three outings. For whatever reason, the Orioles have figured him out and will likely do it again today. On the other hand, Baltimore pushes Alfredo Simon to the hill, a guy who was called up in September of last year and will be making his first start of the 2009 season against an offense that is way overdue for a big output. Simon allowed at least three runs in three of his four appearances last season and only made one start. While he was decent in that start, he faces an offense that is itching for a big day. Bad spot for both pitchers today and I expect to see a 9-6 final, in favor of the Yankees. Play the O’s/Yankees OVER the number as your fourth free play in five days.
5♦ Yankees - Orioles OVER
Sports Gambling Hotline
Philadelphia +6' at CHICAGO
Comp play winner on Dallas in a blowout last night makes it a 8-2 comp play run the last 10 days.
NBA tonight, take the points with the 76ers who are looking to stay in front of the Bulls for the 6th spot in the East. Philly has the potential to move up to the 5th spot, which who would be favorable, as the Sixers have played the 4th seeded Hawks quite well this year, but we digress.
Philly has lost their last pair of games, bu they are on a 4-1 spread run their last 5, and they have matched up against the Bulls well of late.
The 76ers have won the last 2 series meetings, and 4 of the last 5 overall. It should also be noted that the underdog is 7-1 against the spread the last 8 series get-togethers.
Chicago has certainly been closing strong. winning their last pair, and 6 of 8, but this seems like too many points to be laying in such an important game for Philadelphia.
Play on the Sixers.
2♦ PHILADELPHIA
Karl Garrett
Philadelphia +6' at CHICAGO
Last night in the NBA, the G-Man scored with an underdog winner on the Memphis Grizzlies. That makes it a 12-3 comp play run the last 15 days!
Another underdog play on Thursday's limited NBA card goes out on the Philadelphia 76ers as they take on the streaking Chicago Bulls.
Both teams are looking to improve their playoff standings, and the Bulls have captured 2 in a row, and 6 of their last 8 straight up. The problem is the Bulls have lost the last pair of series meetings, and 4 of the last 5 straight up.
Philly has dropped their last pair of games, but the Sixers are on a 4-1 spread run their last 5, and the underdog in this series has covered 7 of the last 8 games played between the teams.
G-Man thinks this one is going right down to the wire. Chicago may get the home win, but I don't see them covering this impost.
Take Philadelphia plus the points.
2♦ PHILADELPHA
Bobby Maxwell
Milwaukee at SAN FRANCISCO -120
Milwaukee took Wednesday's contest in San Francisco after the Giants won the opener 10-6. Look for the home team to win this one behind the pitching of Matt Cain.
Cain went just 8-14 last season but his ERA was a respectable 3.76 and this guy has some electric stuff. He's got to get a little better control, but this guy has the potential to be a dominant starter. In his last three starts of last season, he didn't give up more than two earned runs in a contest. In the final start at home last year, he allowed two runs in seven innings but lost to the Dodgers 2-1.
Manny Parra is on the hill for the Brewers and he went 10-8 last season with a 4.34 ERA. He was suck a disaster late in the season, Milwaukee put him in the bullpen for the stretch run and the playoffs. He gave up four runs or more in three of his last four starts, including an ugly start in Philadelphia that saw him allow five runs on seven hits in 1 1/3 innings.
The Brewers are just 3-13 in their last 16 as an underdog and 7-20 in their last 27 Thursday contests. We'll play the home team Giants in this one behind the arm of Matt Cain.
3♦ SAN FRANCISCO
Chris Jordan
Oakland +115 at ANAHEIM
We scored with the pitching debut in Baltimore yesterday, today we’re counting on Oakland’s Brett Anderson, who was ranked by Baseball America as the A's organization top prospect and seventh overall in baseball. The crafty southpaw split last season at Single-A Stockton and Double-A Midland, and even pitched in the All-Star Futures Game at Yankee Stadium. On top of that he represented Team USA in the Beijing Olympics, and finished 2008 as a member of Triple-A Sacramento's playoff roster. Not a bad resume for this kid, and we’ll only list him, despite the fact the Angels are 1-5 in Jered Weaver’s last five starts against Oakland. After watching the Halos win the season-opener, I see how there injury-plagued staff is going to hurt early on, while a tired bullpen will suffer. All value points to the Athletics, who have won the last two night by identical finals of 6-4. Take the road pup one more time.
1♦ ATHLETICS