DAVE COKIN
DETROIT TIGERS / TORONTO BLUE JAYS
Take DETROIT TIGERS
Intriguing windup to the Tigers-Blue Jays series with rookie Rick Porcello and Ricky Romero taking the mound. Porcello is the top prospect in the Detroit organization and is making the jump to the show off just 125 innings of work at Hi-A. Southpaw Romero is looking like a late bloomer. He's struggled since getting drafted sixth overall back in 2005 and was starting to look like a bust. But Romero finally put it together this spring and instead of pitching here in Las Vegas, he's starting for the big club. But Porcello, despite his inexperience, appears to be the more finished product right now and at the price, I think the Tigers new sensation is worth a look today.
JIM FEIST
MILWAUKEE BREWERS / SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
Take MILWAUKEE BREWERS
San Fran does not have a strong offense and faces a decent young pitcher here. Milwaukee lefty Manny Parra is off a 10-8 season and he averaged 7.97 strikeouts per nine innings, a healthy rate for a pitcher enjoying his first full season at the big league level. The Giants are relying on the pitching staff to carry them. Matt Cain has a great young arm, but still struggles with control. That's been a huge problem against the Brewers, as Cain is 0-2 with a 5.54 ERA against them. The value here is with the road dog. Play the Brewers.
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
VAN / LOS Under 5.5
The Canucks beat the Flames for one reason and one reason only Tuesday: The big guy wearing No. 1. Roberto Luongo made 21 of his 46 saves in the first period as Vancouver moved into a tie with Calgary atop the Northwest Division, ruining Calgary's chance to clinch the division with a victory and I expect "Bobby Lu" to have another big game tonight! The Kings are coming off a 2-1 road victory in Edmonton and I look for them to have a similar dominating defensive performance this evening. It's interesting to note that LA has seen the total go under the posted number in 12 of 19 games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season; play on the UNDER!
Jrtips
NUGGETS vs. LAKERS
The Western Conference's No. 1 Los Angeles Lakers (62-16) now add Andrew Bynum back into the mix. After missing 32 games with a torn MCL in his right knee, Bynum will return tonight at Staples Center as the Lakers meet the Denver Nuggets, the hottest team in the NBA. Los Angeles (62-16), has won 21 of 23 at home against the Nuggets. Kobe Bryant is averaging 30.3 points and 5.3 rebounds as Los Angeles has won two of three versus Denver this season. The Nuggets, who can secure the No. 2 seed in the West with a win in this contest, have picked the right time to play their best basketball of the season. Denver won 122-112 last night over Oklahoma City, to win their eighth in a row and 13th in 14 games. The Los Angeles defeated the Nuggets 104-90 on Nov. 21st in the teams' only meeting at Staples Center this season.Carmelo Anthony, scoring 22.9 points per game, is averaging just 11.7 on 27.5 percent shooting versus Los Angeles in 2008-09 but he is playing his best basketball of the season right now. Although the Lakers are a 1/2 game behind Cleveland, this is a bigger game for the Nuggets. If Denver wins, it will secure home-court advantage in a playoff series for the first time since the 1988 Western Conference semifinals against Dallas. The Lakers will try to get Bynum some playing time to get him ready for the playoffs which will slow their offense down a little when he's in the game. The lakers have been in cruise control for the past few weeks just doing enough to win, but that won't be enough against the hottest team in the league who will bring their A game tonight.TAKE DENVER+8 1/2
Carlo Campanella
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox
Play: Chicago White Sox
White Sox start John Danks on the mound as they host Kansas City on Thursday afternoon. Chicago is 2-1 during his last 3 starts against these Royals, including an awesome effort in his last trip to the mound where he pitched 7 scoreless innings while defeating the Royals 3-0. With the White Sox owning a 14-5 home record against Kansas City, another solid effort from Danks will be all they need to notch another home win in this series.
7* Play On Chicago White Sox
Undefeated's picks now 10 wins and 3 losses (over 75%)
When I posted 66% yesterday it was an error since it
should have been 75% yesterday with 9-3. Yesterday's
pick I posted late but it was a winner.
Today's pick
NBA - pick Philadelphia +8 (buy a couple of points)
===================================================
EZWINNERS'S FREE SELECTION
Date: Thursday, April 9, 2009
Game: New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles
Sport: MLB
Time: 12:35PM CST
(965) New York Yankees -$165
(Listing Burnett and Simon)
Look for AJ Burnett to stop the bleeding for the Yankees after they
have dropped their first two games of the season to the Orioles.
Burnett is a lifetime 7-1 against the Orioles and Yankee bats should
get going against the Orioles young starting pitcher Alfredo Simon.
2009 Free Selections Record 54-43 (55.7%)
====================================================
Free Selection from Totals4U
Thursday's free selection: Athletics/Angels under 9 runs
====================================================
maddux sports has a 60% winning average
on their free picks since 2003 - believe it or not
Today's Free Pick is LA Angels -125
Brad Diamond Sports
Play: Chicago over Philadelphia
Have gained much respect for interim HC Tony DiLeo as he has brought along the Sixers in fine fashion since taking over the helm from the legendary Mo Cheeks. However, tonight Philly faces the Bulls and play into recent and same season revenge for the March home loss to Chicago 104-101. Granted, the underdog has covered 7 of 8 in the series, while Philly is 4-1 ATS L5 in Chicago. No matter, feel emotion is 100% on the side of Chicago as they show at 10-2 ATS at home and 11-3-1 ATS versus a .500+ team. Also, would note the loss of Thaddeus Young (Philadelphia) is more evident versus athletic teams, so look for Chicago to exploit that factor. Only concern tonight is, Tim Thomas may not dress for the Bulls.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Milwaukee Brewers +105
Cain is a solid young pitcher for the Giants, but the team just doesn't provide him any run support. In fact, Cain is 8-25 against the money line in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons. The Giants are just 6-14 in Cain's last 20 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150. Also, you have to like the lefty Parra's chances against the weak-hitting Giants as they are just 4-13 in their last 17 home games vs. a left-handed starter. The Brewers' bats always seem to get the better of the Giants so it comes as no surprise that the Brewers are 7-1 in the last 8 meetings. Take the Brewers at a nice price tonight.
DUNKEL
Philadelphia at Chicago
The Sixers look to build on their 6-1 ATS record over their last 7 games as a road underdog between 5 and 10 1/2 points. Philadelphia is the underdog pick (+6 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Bulls favored by only 5. Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+6 1/2).
Game 501-502: Philadelphia at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 117.701; Chicago 122.681
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 5; 197
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago by 6 1/2; 202
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+6 1/2); Under
Game 503-504: Houston at Sacramento
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 123.692; Sacramento 112.678
Dunkel Line & Total: Houston by 11; 205
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 505-506: Denver at LA Lakers
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 121.545; LA Lakers 125.698
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Lakers by 4; 205 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: LA Lakers by 8 1/2; 211
Dunkel Pick: Denver (+8 1/2); Under
NHL
Florida at Atlanta
The Thrashers look to build on their 9-2 record in their last 11 games when playing with 1 day of rest. Atlanta is the underdog pick (+125) according to Dunkel, which has the Thrashers favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+125).
Game 51-52: Buffalo at Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 12.581; Carolina 12.203
Dunkel Line & Total: Buffalo by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 53-54: Philadelphia at NY Rangers
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 11.857; NY Rangers 13.059
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Rangers by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: NY Rangers (-145); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Rangers (-145); Under
Game 55-56: Montreal at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Montreal 11.346; Boston 12.990
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 1 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Boston (-180); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-180); Under
Game 57-58: Florida at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Florida 10.708; Atlanta 12.482
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 1 1/2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Florida (-145); 6
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+125); Under
Game 59-60: Washington at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 12.222; Tampa Bay 10.184
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 2; 7
Vegas Line & Total: Washington (-240); 6
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-240); Over
Game 61-62: Nashville at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Nashville 12.048; Detroit 10.869
Dunkel Line & Total: Nashville by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit (-270); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Nashville (+240); Over
Game 63-64: NY Islanders at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: NY Islanders 11.394; Pittsburgh 11.125
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Islanders by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Pittsburgh (-400); 6
Dunkel Pick: NY Islanders (+310); Under
Game 65-66: New Jersey at Ottawa
Dunkel Ratings: New Jersey 10.234; Ottawa 12.351
Dunkel Line & Total: Ottawa by 2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Ottawa (-120); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Ottawa (-120); Over
Game 67-68: Dallas at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 10.299; Colorado 11.357
Dunkel Line & Total: Colorado by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Colorado (-125); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-125); Under
Game 69-70: Los Angeles at Vancouver
Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 11.141; Vancouver 12.153
Dunkel Line & Total: Vancouver by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Vancouver (-250); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Vancouver (-250); Over
Game 71-72: Phoenix at San Jose
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 10.840; San Jose 10.588
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: San Jose (-305); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (+255); Under
MLB
Game 951-952: NY Mets at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Perez) 13.917; Cincinnati (Arroyo) 14.504
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-125); 9
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+115); Under
Game 953-954: Pittsburgh at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Ohlendor) 16.372; St. Louis (Carpenter) 15.129
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-185); 8
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+175); Under
Game 955-956: LA Dodgers at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Kershaw) 13.718; San Diego (Correia) 14.722
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-165); 8
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+155); Over
Game 957-958: Milwaukee at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Parra) 13.776; San Francisco (Cain) 15.521
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-140); 8
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-140); Under
Game 959-960: Detroit at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Porcell) 15.698; Toronto (Romero) 14.441
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Detroit (-115); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-115); Under
Game 961-962: Seattle at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Washburn) 16.685; Minnesota (Perkins) 15.558
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-135); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+125); Over
Game 963-964: Tampa Bay at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Garza) 15.125; Boston (Matsuzaka) 16.021
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Boston (-175); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-175); Under
Game 965-966: NY Yankees at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Burnett) 14.848; Baltimore (Simon) 16.523
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-185); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+175); Under
Game 967-968: Kansas City at Chicago White Sox
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Davies) 15.108; White Sox (Danks) 16.711
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-155); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (-155); Over
Game 969-970: Cleveland at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Pavano) 15.794; Texas (McCarthy) 15.276
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Texas (-125); 11
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+115); Under
Game 971-972: Oakland at LA Angels
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Anderson) 13.952; LA Angels (Weaver) 15.624
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-125); 9
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-125); Over
Vernon Croy
New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles
Play: New York Yankees
The Yankees get their 1st win of the 2009 season today with ex Blue Jay ace A.J. Burnett on the mound. The Yankees have not lost their first 3 games of the season since 1998 and this team has just too much talent not to give Burnett the run support he needs today. The Orioles have always struggled in day games with a 28-60 record their last 88 day games and I look for the Orioles to struggle against Burnett who is 7-1 in his last 8 starts against them. Take the Yankees to avoid the sweep as my MLB Free Play for Thursday and make sure you get on my 8-3 MLB Run that continues early Thursday. Vernon Croy's 8-3 MLB Run continues right here early Thursday with his MLB Smash so make sure you get on it now.
John Ryan
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres
Play: Over 8
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on the OVER San Diego/Dodgers. Supporting this graded play is a strong system that has posted a 42-15 mark for 74% winners since 1997. Play over with all teams where the total is 7 to 8.5 in the first 12 games of the season and is a playoff team from last season who lost 4 or more of their last 5 games, but is an average team based on win percentage from last season that won between 45-55% of their games. No matter the point of the season the Dodgers are 95-69 OVER (+22.3 Units) versus a NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse over the last 3 seasons. SD skipper Black is a solid 22-12 OVER (+9.8 Units) after a game where they had 4 or less hits. of note, but having any impact on the grading of this play is that SS Rafael Furcal will not be in the starting lineup and is being given a day off for rest. SD starter Kevin Correia won a starting job with a solid Spring. He was extremely sick early last season losing 20 pounds and significant strength that reduced his velocity. Then he suffered an oblique injury and the 2008 season was not a reflection of the true talent he possesses. Still, he has much to prove and based on public reports his velocity is still nowhere close to 2007 levels. One reason Furcal may not be playing is that he has hit just 182 against him. Pierre, however has batted 438 and Ethier 500. Many is 2 for 4. Kershaw starts for the Dodgers and he just turning 21 years old, but has drawn comparisons to Scott Kazmir. he made 21 starts last season and posted a 4.38 ERA. When pitching in road games his ERA inflated to 5.36 ERA. AiS shows a 74% probability that 10 or more runs will be scored in this game. Take the OVER.
Doc's Sports
Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco Giants
Play: Over 7.5
Both of these starting pitchers (Cain & Parra) have struggled in their recent histories. All systems point to a high scoring affair on get away day. It is an easy OVER.
Tony Stoffo
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers
With Kershaw facing Correia this afternoon makes the Dodgers the solid play in this spot. The Dodgers latest young pitching star went 5-2 with a 3.68 ERA down the stretch, striking out 65 in 66 innings and limiting opponents to a .241 average. Kershaw made three starts against the Padres last season, including a pair at home in September. He won both of those, allowing three runs in 12 2/3 innings pitched while striking out 13. Look for more of the same today against this inept Padres lineup was was last in the majors in runs scored, and are coming off of a 3 single performance in yesterday's 5-2 loss. While look for the Padres starter Correia has has been hit hard by the Dodgers resulting in a 6.00 ERA and 1.556 WHIP to not last long in this spot making Los Angeles the easy winner here again today.
Ron Raymond
TEX (-110) vs CLE
When ANY MLB Team Played as Home team as a Favorite - Vs Conference Opponent - During a day game - Vs. Right handed pitchers - Coming off a Win vs. AL CENTRAL opponent - Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher - Coming off a 2 game over: The Home Favorite (TEXAS) 12-3 (SU) in this spot since 97.
Greg Shaker
Kansas City Royals at Chicago White Sox - Under 9
You can also get this game at -8.5 and +100 to +105 but with 9 being such a key baseball number, I am getting the extra run. That means that it will take 10 to beat us here and I don't think that is going to happen very often. Playing baseball totals is simply about putting yourself in the best position to win but sometimes they don't go the way you want them to, because it is impossible to get into a throwers head and it is impossible to know how the ball is going to bounce throughout the course of play. That being said, I like our chances for this one. Certainly the trends are on our side with the last 5 games at this park going UNDER the total, the last 4 between these two teams doing the same. I profited a lot with Danks last year in the total department an especially when he threw at home. This Kid is a good one despite his young age and his last 8 of 11 have not reached the posted total here in Chicago. John was fifth in the AL last season with a 3.32 ERA, and has already proven that he a big game pitcher. A win over Minnesota in last season's one game divisional playoff to decide the Central title and a victory against the Tampa Bay Rays in Game 3 of the division series proved that. Danks is 1-0 with a 3.28 ERA in four career starts against the Royals. He has that youth thing going for him, so his bones will be ready to get off to a good start this year. Davies might be the straw that breaks our back but I will take my chances with a WhiteSox team that has not gotten out of the gate very well, with just 3 hits last night all singles, and only 4 runs in two games. The Pens have performed nicely for both teams as well. Let's put ourselves in the best position today and play UNDER the total.