Jack Jones
Texas Rangers -108 over Cleveland Indians
I'll lay the small number on Texas today. Brandon McCarthy has pitched well against the Indians in the past, going 3-1 with a 2.36 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP. Carl Pavano is a pitcher who you can not trust and he hasn't been great this spring either, giving up 17 runs in 28.2 innings of work. Texas has been hot with the bats, and I see that trend lasting for awhile.
Wunderdog
New York Mets at Cincinnati
Pick: Cincinnati +100
The Mets have won the first two here, and will go for the sweep this afternoon behind Oliver Perez. Perez is a high-risk pitcher, as he walked four or more batters in one-third of his starts last year. He is also coming off of a spring where he walked 14 in just 16 innings and lasted just 37 pitches in his last outing. Bronson Arroyo made 18 home starts last season with the Reds coming away with the win in 11 of them. He controlled this Mets' lineup last year, throwing eight innings in two different games - allowing just four hits in each. This is a good spot for the Reds to salvage game three, and I'll back them in this one.
Yankee Capper
NHL
NY Islanders/Pittsburgh o6
Philadelphia Flyers +120
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers +6
MLB
NY Mets -120
LA Dodgers -140
NY Yankees-RL -125
LT Profits
Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Diego Padres Under 8
The first three games of this opening series between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the San Diego Padres have all gone Under with the games averaging 6.0 runs combined, and we anticipate yet another low scoring affair today.
Young southpaw Clayton Kershaw gave a fine account of himself at the Major League level last season, and he allowed three runs or less in all three of his starts vs. the Padres. Granted, he went a shade over five innings in two of those starts, but the Dodgers will probably give him more rope this year, and he looked dominant when he was on last season.
It is easy to forget that he is just 21 years old when you see just how poised and polished he looks on the mound, and he did wrap up the spring with three hitless Saturday. Given how the Padres are hitting right now (or not hitting), we see no reason why he cannot succeed again here.
Meanwhile, Kevin Correia is making his Padres debut after spending his career with the Giants so far. Sure, he is not a stud, but has always been serviceable and he will certainly appreciate the dimensions of his new home ballpark. Correia was hurt most of last season, but he did post a 3.45 RRA and 1.32 WHIP in 2007 and a 3.49 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 2006 in San Francisco, and a return to anything close to that will make him a welcome addition to the San Diego staff.
So what we have here is two competent pitchers and to offenses that are not hitting right now, which sounds like a nice recipe for an Under.
Pick: Dodgers / Padres Under 8
Nite Owl Sports
Game: Denver Nuggets @ Los Angeles Lakers
Pick: 1 unit ATS: Los Angeles Lakers -8
This pick on the LA Lakers is based mostly on the series dominance that Lakers have had over Denver during the last three years, with a 9-1 SU record (8-2 ATS) in the last ten games of the series, including going 5-0 SU and ATS at home vs Nuggets, with an average MOV of 16 points, including a 14 point home win in November (after the Billups-Iverson trade made by Denver earlier that month). But then a funny thing happened in the most recent game of the series, in denver in late February, where the Lakers totally stunk up the place for most of the game and lost, 79-90 for their lowest offensive output and probably their worst overall performance TY, certainly their least energetic. But whatever was causing their malaise that night, we don't expect a repeat of that tonite, with this not only a revenge game for LA but also an important game in their quest for the best overall record in NBA and HCA throughout the playoffs -- and in that race, they have the tiebreaker over Cavs (having beaten them twice TY), whom they trail by one game, and seem to have the easier remaining schedule of the two, with only one road game left, tomorrow night in Portland, while Cavs have two roadies (at Philly and Indy) and have been playing like crap on the road lately, plus a home game against boston.
And while denver is likely to be the more tired of the two teams, having played last night at home, a game in which denver stars CA and Nene each logged about 38 minutes, the Nuggets have not been too bad TY away in back to backs, with a 10-10 overall ATS mark in that mode (with average margin of loss just 3 points), including 5-7 away. And LA, playing with one day of rest, like they are tonite, is only 16-26 ATS in that rest mode, with an average MOV of just 6 points. Moreover, in games where Lakers have had the "rest advantage' over an unrested team, like tonite, they are just 1-4 ATS. And two of denver's best road performances TY as heavy road dogs of 8> points (an upset win by 9 at orlando and a six point covering loss at utah), came in the second game of a back to back, and after a win, no less, generally considered an unfavorable situation for the road team. So while Denver is playing in this generally unfavorable "win and travel" situation, based on the foregoing, we don't see that as much of a factor favoring the Lakers.
And speaking of the Lakers, they have been a pretty good 7-4 ATS in tonite's point spread range of 4-9.5 points, which includes 3-2 ATS in their games since jan 1 vs the NBA's elite, with covering home wins over Cavs, Rockets and Spurs, but a 6 point home loss to Magic and a 7 point non-covering win over Mavs, all for an average MOV of 9 points in those five recent representative home games. And while Denver has had its problems in second half of the season getting focused and motivated for road games when they are favored, that has not been a problem when they are 'dogged' on the road against good teams, having gone 3-0 ATS in their 3 such games since jan 1, with the aforementioned ATS wins at orlando and utah, plus a covering two point loss at Houston.
One final factor is the expected return of Laker Center Andrew Bynum, who has been out for over two months with a serious knee injury (torn MCL). While that will clearly be a positive for the Lakers in the long run and in the playoffs, we're not quite sure if it will help them or hinder them in this game, as teams which have adjusted to the absence of a star player (as Lakers clearly have with bynum) often welcome him back into the line up with open arms, but then have trouble re-adjusting to his presence, more so on offense than defense.
So based on all the foregoing, we recommend a small play on the LA Lakers, but only for one unit and only at a line of -8 or less.