Sports Gambling Hotline
Orlando +4' at PHILADELPHIA
We are well aware of the suspension of Dwight Howard for this game, but we are not very excited about laying a couple of baskets with the 76ers.
Philadelphia has only been favored once in the last fifteen meetings between the teams, and they lost that game outright.
Orlando is still a positive 26-16-1 against the spread on the road this year, while Philadelphia is under .500 for the season on their home hardwood, at 20-21-2 against the math.
No doubt Philly should take advantage of a Howard-less Orlando team, but Orlando should still be able to stay inside of this impost.
We are calling for a close game all the way, and for the Magic plus the points to stay inside of this impost.
Play on Orlando!
1♦ ORLANDO
Scott Delaney
Play Los Angeles on the Run Line in its NL West showdown tonight with San Diego.
I know the Dodgers are coming home after getting shelled by the Giants, but that's even more reason to believe they'll be looking for the win tonight. It's the start of a four-game weekend set, and they'll be out to avenge last night's loss immediately.
They shouldn't have any trouble getting into a rhythm against San Diego's Josh Geer, who has shown a knack for leaving his pitches high in the zone, a mistake that will cost him in Dodger Stadium against the men in blue.
I know right-hander James McDonald hasn't exactly been the go-to guy this season, but he's shown flashes of dominance against the D'Backs, Giants and the Rockies twice. The key thing to make note of is how his innings have progressively increased since April 10, from just 2 1/3 frames to five in his last start, in Denver.
He catches a break as the Friars come into Chavez Ravine after swinging away in the rarified air inside Coors Field, and won't get any time to recover in having to play immediately against their rivals. I doubt that offense will have its timing down right away.
Let's play the Dodgers in a series-opening rout as they improve to 7-0 at home this season with their 9th win in San Diego's last 12 trips to LA.
L.A. DODGERS
Matt Rivers
For Thursday lay the points with the Rockets.
Experience, experience, experience!
Portland has had a great season and is a team to be reckoned with in the future for sure but the Blazers are just too young today and it will show. Brandon Roy is blossoming into a Superstar, LaMarcus Aldridge may not be far behind, Greg Oden will get better and become a defensive force and overall these Trailblazers are very solid.
But today is a tough tough spot for the young boys from Portland to be successful in. For one today's visitors are not the same team on the road as they are at the Rose Garden. They did play decent enough competitive ball in the two road games in this series at the Toyota Center, covering one of them, but it was the Rockets who were pretty much in the lead in both games throughout and never in true danger of not winning either game.
Now in a do or die situation on the highway I don't see this young Portland team being able to muster enough offense against Ron Artest, Yao, Shane Battier and the very solid Rockets' defense. Roy probably will get his but other sources are going to be hard to come by and in the end Houston is just going to be a bit too much and advance in an 8-10 point victory.
Red Dog Sports
LA Angels at New York Yankees
Play over 10 runs as the Yankees have played 4 overs and just 2 unders at home. Together these two have played 24 overs, 15 unders and a push this year. Ortega has an ERA of 7.20 and Burnett's ERA is 5.47. The pitchers have combined for 4 overs and one under this year. The last 14 meetings have provided 10 overs and 4 unders. Play the over on Thursday!
John Ryan
Florida Marlins vs. Chicago Cubs
Play: Chicago Cubs Pick Title: Cubs
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on the Cubs as they square off against the Marlins. Supporting this graded play is a series of strong game dependent angles. Note that Chicago has become a very good investment in specific roles. Note that they are 15-5 (+9.5 Units) against the money line at home when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last 2 seasons; 37-13 (+17.3 Units) against the money line in home games in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons; 23-10 (+11.7 Units) against the money line at home with a money line of -100 to -125 over the last 3 seasons. Florida starter Volstad is off to a solid start this season, but this matchup against the Cubs simply does not favor him at all. He has allowed a 316 BA in the respective careers of the Cubs players. Volstad throws a variety of pitches and does not rely on his FB for first pitch strikes. Problem is that it is far more difficult to throw a curve for a strike than a FB. The Cubs are a patient hitting team and will look to work the count and make him throw pitches in order to get to a favorable hitter’s count. On the first pitch, he throws FB 69% of the time, curve 24%. When behind in the count he throws FB 77%, curve 11%, and change 8%. Curve balls must be hit the opposite way and the Cubs have many hitters on their roster than truly excel - like Manny does - in going the opposite way consistently. Take the Cubs.
DUNKEL
Portland at Houston
The Blazers are coming off a victory in Game Four (88-77) and look to build on their 6-2 ATS record in their last 8 games following a win of more than 10 points, while the Rockets are just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 playoff games as a favorite. Portland is the underdog pick (+5) according to Dunkel, which has Houston favored by only 3 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Portland (+5).
Game 555-556: Boston at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 119.670; Chicago 121.152
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 1 1/2; 191 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago by 3; 195 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (+3); Under
Game 557-558: Orlando at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Orlando 117.375; Philadelphia 120.491
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 3; 182 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Philadelphia by 5 1/2; 184
Dunkel Pick: Orlando (+5 1/2); Under
Game 559-560: Portland at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Portland 125.451; Houston 128.974
Dunkel Line & Total: Houston by 3 1/2; 171
Vegas Line & Total: Houston by 5; 179
Dunkel Pick: Portland (+5); Under
MLB
St. Louis at Washington
The Nats look to take advantage of a St. Louis team that is 0-8 in its last 8 games as a road favorite between -110 and -150. Washington is the underdog pick (+125) according to Dunkel, which has the Nationals favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Washington (+125).
Game 901-902: St. Louis at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Boggs) 14.677; Washington (Cabrera) 16.014
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1 1/2; 11
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-135); 10
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+125); Over
Game 903-904: Florida at Chicago Cubs
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Volstad) 15.171; Cubs (Marshall) 13.660
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-130); No Run Line
Dunkel Pick: Florida (+120); N/A
Game 905-906: Arizona at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Scherzer) 15.386; Milwaukee (Suppan) 15.412
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-115); 9
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-115); Over
Game 907-908: San Diego at LA Dodgers
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Geer) 14.741; LA Dodgers (McDonald) 13.277
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-155); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+145); Under
Game 909-910: Oakland at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Braden) 16.529; Texas (Padilla) 15.361
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1; 12
Vegas Line: Texas (-120); 11
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+110); Over
Game 911-912: Toronto at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Burres) 16.338; Kansas City (Davies) 14.810
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-140); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+130); Under
Game 913-914: Boston at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Beckett) 15.231; Tampa Bay (Garza) 15.401
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-110); 9
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-110); Over
Game 915-916: LA Angels at NY Yankees
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Ortega) 15.298; NY Yankees (Burnett) 16.275
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1; 11
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-230); 10
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-230); Over
NHL
Chicago at Vancouver
The Blackhawks open in Vancouver against a Canucks team that is just 2-5 in its last 7 games as a home favorite between -110 and -150. Chicago is the pick (+130) according to Dunkel, which has the Blackhawks favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+130).
Game 3-4: Chicago at Vancouver
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 12.320; Vancouver 11.937
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 1/2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Vancouver (-150); 5
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+130); Under
Jrtips
BLAZERS vs. ROCKETS
The Blazers won 88-77 on Tuesday night when 7-foot-6 Yao, a seven-time All-Star and Houston's leading scorer at 19.7 points per game took only four shots in the 4th quarter when the Rockets were outscored 24-15. Yao scored 24 points in Game 1 and 21 in Game 4 and the Rockets won so the Rockets will go back to getting the ball inside. Luis Scola is the Rockets' leading scorer in the series, averaging 17.6 points per game because Portland's defense on Yao has opened up mid-range jumpers for the power forward who is shooting 58.5 percent from the field. Scola scored 21 in Game 5, but had only one basket in the fourth quarter. LaMarcus Aldridge scored 25 points for Portland in Game 5 while Brandon Roy had 25. Aldridge scored 27 in the Blazers' other win in the series but has averaged only 13 points in his team's three losses. The Blazers have lost 12 of their last 13 games at the Toyota Center and 10 of their last 11 road playoff games overall while the Rockets have won eight straight home games. After topping 100 points in the first two games, Houston has averaged only 84 points in the last three. The Rockets shot 39.8 percent from the field in Game 4, but still won. The Blazers will try to become just the ninth team in NBA history out of 185 to come back from a 3-1 deficit and win a seven-game playoff series. The Rockets are the veteran team with the dominate force inside that they will take advantage of tonight. They were up four points going intO the fourth quarter in the last game in Portland. The Rockets are at home where they have won eight straight and they realize the sense of urgency. Tonight, they will continue to go to Yao who will either score or get fouled and go to the line where he is an excellent foul shooter. The Rockets will play shuit down defense and put the Blazers away tonight.
TAKE HOUSTON-5
LT Profits
Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay
The Boston Red Sox and Tampa Bay Rays opened this season with a three-game series in Fenway Park, and none of those games exceeded a combined nine runs scored. Look for more of the same tonight.
Josh Beckett is coming off of his worst start of the year, as he was absolutely lit up by the New York Yankees for eight earned runs and10 hits in just five innings in a wild 16-11 Red Sox win last Saturday. That outing alone has skewed his numbers, so his current 6.00 ERA and 1.62 WHIP are quite deceptive.
Becket had a 3.79 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP going into that debacle, and we expect him to return to that kind of form here. After all, he has allowed exactly one earned run in five of his eight starts vs. the Rays since the start of last season, and exactly two earned runs in another one. One of those one-run efforts came on Opening Day this year, when he allowed only two hits while recording 10 strikeouts in seven innings.
Very similarly, Matt Garza has had just one bad start out of four starts so far, but that bad outing has skewed his numbers. Garza has a 4.97 ERA and 1.30 WHIP overall, which is not terrible considering that includes his start vs. the White Sox on April 19, where he allowed seven earned runs and 11 baserunners in 5.2 innings. Garza has pitched great vs. Boston, allowing exactly one run in each of his last three starts against them while allowing just 12 hits in 20 innings.
So look for both hurlers to pitch at there normal levels tonight, which is bad news for the two offenses.
Pick: Red Sox / Rays Under 9
Tom Freese
Arizona at Milwaukee
Milwaukee is 36-16 their last 52 home games vs. losing teams and they are 11-1 in the last 12 starts made by Jeff Suppan after allowing two or less runs in their last game. The Brewers are 7-1 their last 8 games overall and they are 4-0 their four home games. Arizona starter Max Scherzer is 1-9 his last ten starts overall. The Diamondbacks are 15-36 their last 51 road games vs. winning teams and they are 2-7 their last 9 games as road underdogs. The D'Backs are 4-11 their last 15 games with the Brewers. PLAY ON MILWAUKEE (Suppan vs. Scherzer)
Tom Stryker
ST. LOUIS with Boggs (-122) over Washington
The Cardinals have posted wins in five of their last six meetings against the Nationals and seven of their last eight against opponents from the National League East. Equally impressive, against sub .400 foes, the Redbirds have been a golden investment cashing 10 of their last 11 battles.
Washington right-hander Daniel Cabrera is finding the going pretty tough in the National League. After five years with the Baltimore Orioles, Cabrera has made four starts this season for Washington and been tagged for 16 runs and 22 hits in 18.1 innings of work. As an underdog, Daniel has dropped four straight.
In their last 77 as a pup, the Nationals are a miserable 23-54 SU and just 4-11 SU in their last 15 at home. The Cardinals are the better team with the better bats and they'll cruise to victory here. Take St. Louis with listed pitcher Boggs.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Angels/Yankees OVER 10 Runs
I expect to see a lot of runs go up on the board tonight with two struggling pitchers on the hill and with the way the ball has been carrying in Yankee Stadium. 12 of 19 games in this series have gone over the last 3 seasons and neither team's bullpen is in as good a shape as it has been the last few years. The Over is 10-4 in the last 14 meetings and 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in New York. The Over is 17-8-1 in Yankees last 26 home games vs. a right-handed starter, 4-0 in Angels last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30, 4-0-1 in Angels last 5 games as an underdog of +151 to +200, and 21-10-1 in Angels last 32 during game 1 of a series. Lastly, the Yanks are 24-11 Over vs. a terrible bullpen whose ERA is 5.50 or worse over the last 3 seasons with the average score totaling 12.9 runs in these games. Bet the Over!
Vernon Croy
Florida Marlins vs. Chicago Cubs
Play: Florida Marlins
The Cubs have been very inconsistent so far this season and the Marlins have the superior pitcher on the mound tonight with Chris Volstad who has an ERA of just 3.00 in 2 career starts against the Cubs. The Marlins are 8-2 in their last 10 games as a dog and they are 6-1 in their last 7 games as a road dog. The Marlins are 20-6 in their last 26 games after a win and they are 6-1 in Volstad's last 7 starts as a road dog. The Cubs are 0-6 in Marshall's last 6 home starts against a team with a winning record and they are just 1-11 in Marshall's last 12 starts as a favorite. We are getting solid value with the Marlins tonight on the road so take them as your Free MLB Play for Thursday night.
Dwayne Bryant
BOS (-113) vs TAM
Have to back the hot team over the struggling one. Boston has reeled off 12 wins in 13 games, including 11 straight wins as a favorite. Tampa has lost four of five and coming home doesn't figure to help, as the Rays are just 2-5 at "The Trop."
Josh Beckett got ripped for 8 runs in 5 innings against the Yankees in his last start, so I expect a very focused and effective outing from him tonight. The Red Sox bullpen has also been very solid, sporting a 2.19 ERA on the season.
Matt Garza has pitched well against Boston, but he's coming off back-to-back poor outings and he seems to be a bit off his game right now.
I'll take red-hot Boston with Beckett over struggling Tampa Bay and Garza for a half-unit.
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
BOS (-110) vs TAM
The last time the Boston Red Sox visited Tropicana Field, Matt Garza helped the Tampa Bay Rays end their season. The teams are going in opposite directions now as the surging Red Sox meet Garza and the struggling Rays on Thursday night to open a four-game series; look for BOSTON to improve to 9-2 (+6.1 units) against division opponents!
Ron Raymond
VAN (-150) vs CHI
The biggest challenge for the Blackhawks to go deep in the playoffs will depend on how they play on the road in a hostile environment. Luckily for the Hawks, they have some veterans like Khabibulin and Sammy Pahlsson who've won a Stanley Cup and bring some wisdom to the younger and eager Hawks players. However, I look for Game #1 to be a game where emotions might run wild, as both these teams don't like each other and the thrash talking in the newspaper has already begun, as players like Adam Burish was quoted saying; If somebody wants to get in my face I'm going to get right back in there face, Burish said. I enjoy that confrontation, it doesn't matter who it is, whether it?s their best player or the guy on the bottom of the depth chart.
You can't be saying stuff like this before a series, because veteran guys like Bieksa and Shane O'Brien will remember that kind of stuff in a crease scrum and I can assure you, Burish will be the first player to get a face wash. Look for Game #1 to be a penalty filled game and that means tons of power plays for both teams and I'm going to ride Luongo being more brilliant then Khabibulin in this situation. Canucks are well rested and I look for them to dominate in the second half of tonight's game, as their timing might be off in the first period, but once they score that first one, it could snowball into a 4-2 win for the Canucks.
Here's some interesting numbers backing up the Canucks tonight. When Vancouver is a Home Team during the Month of April and the OVER/UNDER is set at 5.0, the Canucks are 13-4-4 since 1999 in this role. Plus, Vancouver is 11-3 SU this season at home or on the road when the O/U is set at 5.0, which means when you have two good goalies at each end, Luongo wants to outshine his opponent. Why else is the total at 5.0
Play the Canucks.