SPORTS ADVISORS
NBA PLAYOFFS
EASTERN CONFERENCE
(2) Boston (7-4 SU, 6-4-1 ATS) at (3) Orlando (5-4 SU, 3-6 ATS)
The Celtics head to Amway Arena in Orlando looking to close out the Magic in Game 6 of their best-of-7 Eastern Conference semifinal series.
Boston scored a 92-88 win on Tuesday at home, covering as a two-point favorite, after trailing by 14 with 8:49 to play and by 10 with 5:39 left. The Celtics used 17-3 run to close the game and grab their first lead in this series. Glen Davis scored 22 points in the victory, while former All-Star Stephon Marbury came up huge in the fourth quarter, when he scored all of his 12 points.
The Magic got 19 points from Rashard Lewis and 18 from Hedo Turkoglu in the defeat, but superstar center Dwight Howard had just 12 points to go along with 17 rebounds. Orlando failed to make a basket over the final 5:39.
Orlando has now dropped three of its last four SU and ATS and now returns home where it lost on a buzzer-beater in Game 4 on Sunday, falling 95-94 as a five-point chalk. The Magic are just 3-2 (2-3 ATS) at home in the playoffs. Meanwhile, Boston has now won two in a row for the first time since Games 2 and 3 of its first-round series against the Bulls. The Celtics are 2-3 (3-1-1 ATS) on the highway in the postseason.
Boston lost the final two regular-season clashes with Orlando, then dropped Game 1 of this series, but the Celtics have since rebounded to win three of the last four meetings SU and ATS. They’re also 2-2 (3-1 ATS) against the Magic in Florida since Jan. 22. However, the host is still 24-11 ATS in the last 35 matchups between these two.
The Celtics are just 4-11 ATS in their last 15 conference semifinal contests, but they are on positive ATS runs of 5-2 overall, 8-2-1 on the highway, 14-5 on Thursdays, 4-1-1 on the road against teams with a winning home record and 5-2 after getting a day off. Orlando is on ATS slides of 5-12 overall, 3-8 after a non-cover and 4-13 against the Atlantic Division, but it is 49-21-1 ATS in its last 71 after a straight-up loss and 6-1 ATS in its last seven Thursday contests.
The under is 6-2 in the last eight battles between these two squads, with the last two games in this series and three of the first five staying low. Meanwhile, Boston is on “over” streaks of 14-5 overall, 21-8 against Eastern Conference teams, 7-3 after getting one day off and 9-4 after a straight-up win. On the opposite side, it’s all been “unders” for the Magic, including 20-8 overall, 16-6 after getting one day off, 6-2 at home, 9-1 on Thursdays, 7-1 after a non-cover and 7-3 against Eastern Conference teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
WESTERN CONFERENCE
(1) L.A. Lakers (7-3 SU, 5-5 ATS) at (5) Houston (6-4, 5-5 ATS)
After destroying the Rockets in Game 5 in Los Angeles on Tuesday, the Lakers will try to close out their best-of-7 Western Conference semifinal series inside the Toyota Center in Houston.
Los Angeles jumped out to a double-digit lead early Tuesday and never looked back, scoring the 118-78 victory as a 12-point favorite. The Lakers held Houston to just 32.6 percent shooting and forced 18 turnovers. Kobe Bryant had 26 points in just three quarters of play for Los Angeles, leading a charge of seven Lakers who reached double-digits in points. Los Angeles shot 51.2 percent from the floor and outrebounded Houston, 49-42.
After looking great in Game 4 without star center Yao Ming, the Rockets looked completely lost without their big man on Tuesday, with only three players reaching double figures in scoring, led by point guard Aaron Brooks’ 14.
The Lakers are just 2-2 SU and ATS on the road in the postseason. Meanwhile, Houston has dropped three of the last four (SU and ATS) in this series and the Rockets struggled at the window lately, going 3-6 ATS in their last nine. They are 4-1 (2-3 ATS) so far in home playoff contests.
Los Angeles is 7-2 ATS in the nine meetings with the Rockets this season, with the chalk going 7-3 ATS in the last 10. Also, the Lakers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 visits to Houston, including a win and cover in Game 3. Finally, the winner has cashed in each of the last 11 head-to-head battles.
The Lakers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 Thursday games and 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 conference semifinal contests, but otherwise Phil Jackson’s squad is on ATS slides of 1-5 after a straight-up win and 2-6 on the road against teams with a winning home record. Rick Adelman’s Rockets are just 5-12 ATS in their last 17 against Pacific Division squads and 2-6 ATS in their last eight after getting one day off, but they are on positive pointspread streaks of 7-3 at home, 21-7 after a non-cover and 28-9-3 on Thursdays.
Tuesday’s game narrowly stayed under the posted total, giving the under a 3-2 edge in this series and a 5-2 mark the last seven times these squads have faced off.
Los Angeles carries “under” streaks of 6-2 overall, 15-5 on Thursdays, 5-2 after getting one day off and 4-1 following a straight-up win. Houston also is on a host of “under” runs that include 7-2 overall, 6-1 at home, 7-2 against the Western conference, 6-2 after getting a day off and 11-5 when coming off a straight-up loss.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
NATIONAL LEAGUE
N.Y. Mets (18-15) at San Francisco (18-15)
The Mets kick off a 10-game road trip with this opener of a four-game weekend series against the Giants at AT&T Park. John Maine (3-2, 4.54 ERA) takes the ball tonight for New York, which concluded an eight-game homestand with Wednesday’s 8-7, 12-inning loss to Atlanta. Jerry Manuel’s club has still won eight of its last 10 overall and three of its last five on the road.
Jonathan Sanchez (1-3, 4.78) is scheduled to take the mound for the surprising Giants, who dropped a 6-3 decision to Washington on Thursday to end a three-game winning streak. Still, the Giants are 5-2 in their last seven games, and their 12-5 home record is the second best in the National League.
In addition to winning eight of their last 10 overall, the Mets are on hot streaks of 10-3 against N.L. West foes, 10-3 on Thursday and 6-1 in series openers. Meanwhile, San Francisco is on surges of 5-2 at home, 4-1 against the N.L. East, 5-1 against righty starters, 7-3 versus teams with a winning record and 7-2 in series openers.
The Mets have dominated this rivalry the last two years, winning nine of the last 11 battles, including the last five in a row in 2008. New York has also taken two of three in San Francisco each of the last three seasons, but ironically it lost the series opener all three years.
Maine has rebounded from a poor start to his season, going 3-0 with a 2.00 ERA in his last three starts after posting an 0-2 record and a 7.47 ERA in his first three outings. On Saturday, he held the Pirates to a single run on three hits in six innings of a 10-1 home victory. The right-hander is 1-1 with a 5.40 ERA in three road starts, and New York is 2-5 in his last seven on the highway.
Sanchez is coming off consecutive ugly road outings at the Cubs and Dodgers, surrendering a combined nine runs in nine innings, this after yielding just two unearned runs in his first two home starts covering 11 2/3 frames. San Francisco has lost 14 of Sanchez’s last 17 starts overall (1-4 this season), going 2-7 in his last nine at home (1-1 this year).
Maine is 2-0 with a 3.78 ERA in three career starts against the Giants, with New York winning all three games, including a pair of 5-3 victories in San Francisco (one in 2007, one in 2008). Sanchez has faced New York four times (two starts), going 2-1 with a 3.55 ERA in 12 2/3 total innings.
The Mets carry “over” streaks of 6-1 overall, 4-1-1 against the N.L. West, 22-7-1 on Thursday, 13-5-3 with Maine on the mound overall and 5-0-1 when Maine takes on N.L. West squads. Similarly, the Giants are on “over” stretches of 6-3 overall, 5-2 against right-handed starters and 6-1-1 with Sanchez pitching at AT&T Park. Finally, five of the last seven clashes between these squads in San Francisco have topped the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. METS and OVER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
N.Y. Yankees (16-17) at Toronto (23-13)
C.C. Sabathia (2-3, 3.94), who is coming off by far his best effort as a Yankee, will try to guide his team a series victory in this series finale at the Rogers Centre. New York rebounded from Tuesday’s 5-1 loss and pounded out an 8-2 victory Wednesday. Still, the Yanks are just 3-7 in their last 10 overall and are on additional slides of 1-4 against southpaw starters, 17-36 when facing lefties on the road and 3-9 against A.L. East rivals.
Brian Tallet (2-1, 4.95) is slated to make his sixth start of the season for the first-place Blue Jays, who saw their three-game winning streak halted last night. Despite that setback, Toronto has won eight of its last 12, and it is 6-2 in its last eight at home. The Blue Jays still own the best home record in the American League at 12-5, and they’re on further streaks of 39-20 at home since last season, 7-2 on Thursday, 11-5 against lefty starters, 5-1 against A.L. East rivals and 37-19 versus teams with a losing record.
Sabathia ended a string of four consecutive non-quality starts with a brilliant performance at Baltimore on Friday, pitching a complete-game four-hitter while walking one and striking out eight en route to a 4-0 shutout victory. The big lefty has pitched at least 6 2/3 innings in each of his last four trips to the mound, and he’s 2-2 with a 3.10 ERA in four road starts.
Tallet is coming off back-to-back strong efforts, holding the Indians to three runs and four hits in seven innings on May 4, then limiting the A’s to a run on two hits in seven innings Saturday. The southpaw got a no-decision in his team’s 9-7 extra-innings home loss to the Indians, but picked up a 6-4 victory at Oakland. Tallet has made four appearances at home this season (two starts), failing to record a decision while compiling a 2.86 ERA.
Going back to his days with Cleveland, Sabathia is 7-3 with a 3.46 ERA in 10 career starts against the Blue Jays, including 3-1 with a 2.88 ERA in four outings at the Rogers Centre. On the other hand, Tallet’s experience against New York has been limited to 20 relief appearances covering 28 1/3 innings, and he’s 1-0 with a 2.86 ERA.
The under is 9-4 in the last 13 Yankees-Blue Jays clashes north of the border, 3-1 in Sabathia’s last four against Toronto and 3-1 in Sabathia’s last four trips to Canada. Additionally, the under is on streaks of 7-2-2 for New York against left-handed starters, 4-2 for Toronto overall and 8-4 for Toronto against divisional opponents. However, the Yankees have topped the total in nine straight games on Thursday, and the over is 4-0 in Tallet’s last four trips to the mound.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES and UNDER
DUNKEL
Boston at Orlando
The Magic look to tie up the series and force a game seven, but run into a Boston team that is 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 road games. The Celtics are the pick (+7) according to Dunkel, which has the Magic favored by only 5. Dunkel Pick: Boston (+7).
Game 741-742: Boston at Orlando
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 120.364; Orlando 125.193
Dunkel Line & Total: Orlando by 5; 188 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Orlando by 7; 190
Dunkel Pick: Boston (+7); Under
Game 743-744: LA Lakers at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: LA Lakers 128.865; Houston 122.358
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Lakers by 6 1/2; 199
Vegas Line & Total: LA Lakers by 8 1/2; 197
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+8 1/2); Over
MLB
Seattle at Texas
The Mariners look to bounce back from yesterday's extra-inning loss and build on their 10-3 record in Felix Hernandez' last 13 road starts against teams with a winning record. Seattle is the pick (-115) according to Dunkel, which has the Mariners favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-115).
Game 901-902: Florida at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Johnson) 15.145; Milwaukee (Bush) 15.261
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Florida (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+105); Under
Game 903-904: LA Dodgers at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Billingsley) 14.850; Philadelphia (Hamels) 15.458
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-135); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-135); Over
Game 905-906: San Diego at Chicago Cubs
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Gaudin) 12.995; Cubs (Dempster) 15.760
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 3; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-185); No Run Line
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-185); N/A
Game 907-908: Houston at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Rodriguez) 13.902; Colorado (Hammel) 14.998
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Houston (-120); 10
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+110); Under
Game 909-910: St. Louis at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Boggs) 14.623; Pittsburgh (Karstens) 13.290
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-110); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+100); Over
Game 911-912: NY Mets at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Maine) 14.413; San Francisco (Sanchez) 16.125
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-125); 9
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+115); Over
Game 913-914: Detroit at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Verlander) 15.866; Minnesota (Baker) 14.720
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Detroit (-120); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-120); Under
Game 915-916: Seattle at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Hernandez) 15.565; Texas (Harrison) 15.418
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Seattle (-115); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-115); Over
Game 917-918: Boston at LA Angels
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Penny) 16.686; LA Angels (Santana) 15.744
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-125); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (+115); Under
Game 919-920: NY Yankees at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Sabathia) 17.043; Toronto (Tallet) 15.710
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-145); 9
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-145); Over
Game 921-922: Cleveland at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Carmona) 14.806; Tampa Bay (Shields) 16.593
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-150); 9
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-150); Under
Game 923-924: Baltimore at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Guthrie) 16.087; Kansas City (Meche) 14.849
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-140); 9
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+130); Under
NHL
Anaheim at Detroit
The Ducks come off a 2-1 win to stay alive, but are 0-4 in their last 4 games after allowing 2 goals or less in the previous game. Detroit is the pick (-250) according to Dunkel, which has the Red Wings favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-250)
Game 69-70: Carolina at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 11.499; Boston 13.151
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 1 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Boston (-215); 5
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-215); Under
Game 71-72: Anaheim at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Anaheim 11.306; Detroit 13.008
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit (-250); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-250); Under
Cajun Sports
New York Mets vs. San Francisco Giants
Play: New York Mets
AT&T Park will be the site of a four-game set between the host San Francisco Giants and the visiting New York Mets with game one of the series set for Friday night at 10:15PM EST. This is also the first game of a ten-game road trip for the Mets who are coming in off an eight-game home-stand which saw them go 6-2 W/L and 8-2 W/L their last ten overall although they lost last night to the Atlanta Braves in twelve innings 8 to 7. The Mets will send John Maine to the bump with his 3-2 W/L record and ERA of 4.54. Maine has pitched well of late winning three straight and posting an ERA of 2.00 over that span. The Mets will be looking for Maine to give them six or seven strong innings of work after seven relievers were used on Wednesday night versus Atlanta. If recent history holds that shouldn’t be a problem for Maine he has gone six innings in each of his last three trips to the bump. The right-hander has three career starts versus the Giants with a record of 1-0 W/L and an ERA of 3.78 in those games. The Giants starter Jonathan Sanchez has struggled in his last three starts including his last outing on Saturday which saw him walk four and give up five runs in an 8 to 0 loss to the Dodgers. Sanchez has failed to reach the sixth inning in any of his last three trips to the hill and he is 1-3 W/L with an ERA of 4.78 overall on the year. Those three losses came on the road with his lone win coming at home but his most recent performances could very well be a sign of things to come especially against a Mets team that is playing extremely well despite their loss last night to the Braves. Sanchez has two career starts versus the Mets going 1-1 W/L with an ERA of 4.09. Our TPR (Team Performance Ratings) Index projects a Mets win by 1.1 runs in tonight’s contest. The Math Model Index also signals a play on the Mets with a one-run victory over the Giants on Thursday night. Lay the chalk with the visitor as they bounce back from their extra inning loss to the Braves and get their road trip started with a win.
Graded Selection: 2* New York Mets 2 San Francisco Giants 1
Doc's Sports
Houston Astros vs. Colorado Rockies
Play: Houston Astros
It is getaway day at Coors, and both of these teams are trying desperately to reach the .500 plateau. Wandy Rodriguez (3-2, 1.80) is probably the most underrated pitcher in the NL. He has been the Astro's most consistent starter by far. Rodriguez has a 3-1 career record and a 3.50 ERA in seven starts versus the Rockies. Jason Hammel on the hill for the home team, has never faced the Astros. He has been a Jekyll and hyde this season. In three appearances at home, Hammel has a 10.80 ERA, but has yet to allow an earned run on the road. Feeling here is that he is just what the Doctor ordered to help get the Astro hitters get their heads out of their behinds. Be sure to sign-up for Doc’s Sports National League Game of the Year, which goes Saturday, May 16th, 2009.
Craig Trapp
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Houston Rockets
Play: Los Angeles Lakers -8
OK, finally we are on a free play run of winners in a row. Yesterday made three days in a row that Handicapper Craig Trapp hit his free play. Today we look to extend free play streak to 4 with our NBA free Winner!! Lets look at the trends and winning breakdown.
Betting Trends
LAL are 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings.
LAL are 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings in Houston.
Rockets are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games.
Rockets are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games playing on 1 days rest.
Kobe and company came out in Game 4 and sent a statement that they are not going to mess with the shorthanded Rockets. Houston plays so much better at home but if the Lakers come out motivated they can't play with LA. Houston on only one days rest with travel on that day could really get worn down in this game 6. The injuries finally catch up to the overachieving Rockets and they fall apart in the 2nd of game 6. Kobe takes a back seat in this game as the inside big guys carry the load. SCORE LAL 99 - HOU 84
Red Dog Sports
Florida at Milwaukee
Play Under 8
There have been 17 unders and 5 overs in the last 22 meetings and Milwaukee has 8 unders and 1 over in their last 9 at home. Josh Johnson has an ERA of 2.34 and Bush has an ERA of 4.04. Look for a low scoring game on Thursday afternoon.
DAVE COKIN
LOS ANGELES DODGERS / PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
Take LOS ANGELES DODGERS
The Dodgers crushed Jamie Moyer Wednesday night and take a shot against another lefty today as they face Cole Hamels. Obviously, this is a tougher assignment. But LA is going with their best in Chad Billingsley and there's no question he has some payback in mind after last year's post-season disaster against the Phils. Billingsley as a dog is a pretty good idea right now, so I'll give the Dodgers a look today.
JIM FEIST
BALTIMORE ORIOLES / KANSAS CITY ROYALS
Take BALTIMORE ORIOLES
A big difference in offense and current play with these teams. Adam Jones has been hitting the ball solidly all season, as evidenced by his impressive .363 batting average. As if that isn't enough, Baltimore's rapidly improving center fielder has added a jolt of power to his swing. Jones slammed two home runs for the first time in his career and drove in four runs to lead the Orioles to a 7-5 victory over the Tampa Bay Rays. That was part of a stretch where they won 4 of 6 games. KC starter Gil Meche is struggling, with a 7.63 ERA his last three starts, and it doesn't help that he has an offense ranked 11th in runs in the AL. A great spot for the dog. Play the Orioles.
Jeff Benton
Detroit -105 at MINNESOTA
Still on a 27-18 roll with my free plays after Wednesday’s selection on the Padres-Cubs UNDER the total ended up as a no-play because the game was cut short by rain. For Thursday, we’ll stay on the diamond and play the Tigers in early action at Minnesota.
No doubt Detroit will take the field today still reeling from last night’s 14-10, 13-inning loss to the Twins, who won it with a walk-off grand slam. But as the old baseball adage goes, momentum is only as good as the next day’s starting pitcher, and I’m putting my money on Tigers right-hander Justin Verlander in this one.
Verlander has been nothing short of magnificent in his last three trips to the mound, going 3-0 with a 0.39 ERA, including a complete-game shutout in Cleveland on Friday. During his last three starts, Verlander has surrendered a total of one run, 11 hits – including two in each of his last two outings – and five walks while striking out 31 in 23 innings! Most importantly for the Tigers, who used five relievers to cover the final eight innings in Wednesday’s all-nighter, Verlander has been eating innings, preceding Friday’s complete game with a pair of seven-inning efforts.
By contrast, the Twins – who sent six relievers to the mound for a total of 7 2/3 innings last night – are desperate for a long outing from starter Scott Baker. Problem is, Baker has lasted more than six innings just once all season (in Friday’s 11-0 win against Seattle when he went seven scoreless frames). Prior to that, Baker had given up 21 runs in 20 2/3 innings (9.15 ERA) in his first four starts, all of which Minnesota lost (and lost badly). Baker is also 0-2 with a 9.28 ERA in two day games this season (Verlander is 1-0 with a 1.50 in two day starts).
Bottom line: After last night’s marathon, this game is going to come down to which starting pitcher lasts longer, and with the way Verlander is going right now, he and the Tigers are a no-brainer, especially at this pick-em price.
4♦ DETROIT
Bobby Maxwell
L.A. Lakers -8 at HOUSTON
FREE winner for you on the hardwood tonight as we go ahead and lay the chalk with the Lakers as they visit Houston, ready to close out the Rockets.
Now that was what we expected to see from the Rockets when they lost center Yao Ming. Tuesday, Houston looked helpless and lost in their 40-point loss in Los Angeles on Tuesday and while it might be closer tonight, it isn't going to get to single digits. Play the Lakers in this one.
We're not sure what got into the Rockets in Game 4 when they played perfect basketball in routing the Lakers without Yao on the court. But whatever it was, it isn't coming back tonight. Los Angeles held Houston to 32.6 percent shooting on Tuesday and forced 18 turnovers. Plus the Rockets only had three players in double-digits, led by 14 from Aaron Brooks.
The Lakers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 visits to Houston and they are 7-2 ATS in the nine games against the Rockets this season. The chalk is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
You know Kobe and Co. saw the Nuggets finish off the Mavs on Wednesday night and the crowd was already chanting "Beat L.A." Well, when the Lakers win this one by 20, it'll be set for a Lakers-Nuggets Western Conference Final.
3♦ L.A. LAKERS
Matt Rivers
For Thursday take a red hot Justin Verlander and the Tigers once again.
The Detroit starter has been quite an enigma. Two seasons ago Verlander was an up and coming stud that dazzled start after start all the way into a great playoff run. Then all of a sudden the tall righty lost it a bit and was not nearly the same guy. But then three starts ago it appears that the real Justin Verlander is back and better than ever.
For the season Verlander is 3-2 with a 4.50 ERA but in the last three starts the guy has been ridiculous at 3-0 with a .39 ERA and those starts were against the Indians twice as well as the Yankess, not exactly poor offenses at all. Verlander has a new release and it has worked out very well thus far helping the flamethrower hit 98 mph on the gun once again late in games.
I am not 100% convinced that Verlander is all the way back but until we see signs of anything else then I will roll with him here in a controlled environment which the Metrodome is.
Scott Baker is on the bump opposing Verlander and is a solid righty himself. But things have been far from smooth so far on the young season, save that great last outing and Baker has been lit up for a ton of Home Runs and has been pretty shoddy overall.
Playing on turf is not easy for the hard hitting Tee-Grays but with Cabrera, Ordonez and Granderson among a few others and a red hot Verlander I'll take my chances with today's visitors in this spot.
Matt Fargo
New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays
PICK: Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays still possess the best record in the American League and that includes a 12-5 record at home. Despite this, they are still getting a high price as underdogs at home against the Yankees which is no surprise for a few reasons. I mentioned this yesterday and the fact remains New York is overpriced almost every time it takes the field. The Yankees won last night thanks to one strong inning and a solid performance from Andy Pettitte. Pettitte was struggling so it was a big bounce back effort from him and tonight, the reasoning will be the opposite. C.C. Sabathia is coming off his best performance since joining the Yankees and while many believe this is the start of a long successful run, I am just the opposite of that theory. Sabathia has not pitched well this season with the exception of two strong outings. Those came against the Orioles and Royals and in both of those games, he was given big leads early. His other two road starts were poor performances and I see a repeat of that. The Blue Jays bats were cooled last night but they are hitting .320 against left-handed pitching even after the struggles against Pettitte and that is tied for second best in baseball. They are tied with the Yankees who also face a lefty tonight in Brian Tallet who has been a great addition to the starting rotation. He has put together back-to-back quality outings and with the exception of one bad performance against the Royals, his other four starts have been solid. He has a 2.51 ERA at home and in his career against the Yankees, he has a 2.86 ERA in 20 appearances. The Yankees are just 17-36 in their last 53 road games against left-handed starters. Toronto is 22-8 in its last 30 games following a loss and the bats tend to pick things up after a bad game as the Blue Jays are 6-0 in their last six games after scoring two runs or fewer in their previous game. 3* Toronto Blue Jays
Scott Spreitzer
Boston Red Sox at Los Angeles Angels
I'm playing the Over between the Red Sox and Angels on Thursday. Ervin Santana is making his first start of the season against a team he has truly struggled against. The Angel righty has been popped for a 5.73 ERA in four starts in his career against Boston. He's also toeing the rubber under the sun, and that's when he's been at his worst. Santana owns a hefty 5.42 ERA in 35 daytime appearances in his career, including 34 starts. His counterpart today is Brad Penny. His best days are definitely behind him. Penny has been lit-up away from home, owns a 6.90 ERA on the season, and has been knocked around for an ERA of almost 5 in his six lifetime starts against the Halos. Last night's game flew over the total on the strength of the Angel bats, for the most part.
Play on: Over
LT Profits
Tigers / Twins Under 8.5
Justin Verlander of the Detroit Tigers has been almost unhittable lately, and even Scott Baker of the Minnesota Twins has been pitching better, so do not look for much scoring in the Metrodome early this afternoon.
Verlander has allowed a grand total of one run in his last three starts, allowing only 11 hits with 31 strikeouts against five walks in 23 innings. That translates to a microscopic 0.39 ERA and 0.70 WHIP with a better than six to one strikeout/walk ratio. Furthermore, he had a Complete Game in his last start and tossed seven innings in each of the prior two starts, so it is a good bet that the shaky Detroit bullpen will not see much if any action today.
Now Baker was off to a slow start this season, but he comes in off of his best start of the year as he tossed seven scoreless innings while allowing only five hits vs. the Seattle Mariners, and he does have an excellent 0.95 WHIP over his last three starts. Baker has also allowed three earned runs or less in seven of his last eight career starts vs. the Tigers, with four of those Quality Starts coming last season.
When you add in the natural lethargy that comes with these 12:10 local starts following a night came, this looks like a rather safe Under.
Pick: Tigers / Twins Under 8.5
Nick Parsons
Anaheim Ducks +200 @ Detroit Red Wings
Game 7! Pretty exciting; this series has been very unpredictable, but I'm suggesting a value play on the Ducks this evening. The Detroit Red Wings and Anaheim Ducks have pushed their Western Conference semifinal series to the limit just as Edmonton and Calgary did in 1991 and Montreal and Boston did in 1971 in the last two matchups of Cup winners. Look for ANAHEIM to improve to 22-15 (+10.5 units) in a road game where the total is 5 1/2!