Jimmy The Moose
Cleveland Indians at Tampa Bay Rays
Prediction: over
The Indians have struggled this season but their bats have the capability to score runs. Cleveland has pled the over in 2 of their last 3 games. Carmona, 1-4 with an ERA of 5.57, is on the mound tonight. The Indains have played the over in 2 of his 3 road starts. Carmona's two starts vs. Tampa have played the over. The over is 4-1-1 in Tampa's last 6 games. The Rays will take adavantage of a struggling Carmona tonight. Play the over.
Rocketman
St Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates
Play: St Louis
St Louis is 20-14 this year while Pittsburgh comes in with a 14-19 record on the season. St Louis is scoring 5.7 runs per game against right handed starters this year. Boggs is 1-0 with a 3.37 ERA in all starts thsi year. Karstens is 0-1 with a 6.19 ERA his last 3 starts. Cardinals are 7-0 in their last 7 Thursday games. Cardinals are 15-5 in their last 20 vs. a team with a losing record. Cardinals are 4-1 in Boggs' last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record. Cardinals are 4-1 in Boggs' last 5 road starts. Pirates are 1-4 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Pirates are 3-12 in their last 15 games on grass. Pirates are 3-12 in their last 15 overall. Pirates are 0-8 in their last 8 Thursday games. Pirates are 1-4 in Karstens' last 5 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. Pirates are 1-4 in Karstens' last 5 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game. Pirates are 1-5 in Karstens' last 6 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. Pirates are 1-7 in Karstens' last 8 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Pirates are 1-7 in Karstens' last 8 home starts. Pirates are 1-11 in Karstens' last 12 starts. Pirates are 1-11 in Karstens' last 12 starts on grass. Pirates are 0-5 in Karstens' last 5 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. Pirates are 0-7 in Karstens' last 7 starts vs. National League Central. Pirates are 0-5 in Karstens' last 5 starts during game 3 of a series. Pirates are 0-8 in Karstens' last 8 starts following a team loss in their previous game. Pirates are 0-4 in Karstens' last 4 starts with 5 days of rest. Cardinals are 49-24 in the last 73 meetings in Pittsburgh. We'll recommend a small play on St Louis tonight!
King Creole
TEX / SEA Under 9.5
Pre-game weather forecasts indicate the winds will be blowing IN this afternoon (15+ MPH) in Arlington for the Getaway Day game of this Texas / Seattle series. And we'll have one of our favorite 'UNDER' Home Plate UMPIRES behind the dish as well. JOHN HIRSCHBECK gets the call today, and he comes in with an overall YTD record of 2-5 O/U... with average combined runs scored at only 7.9. He's also gone a PERFECT 0-3 O/U in all American League parks (only 6.9 ROG)... and a PERFECT 0-1 O/U in 'Righty vs Lefty' pitching matchups (onlt 2 runs scored in that one).
FELIX HERNANDEZ has had very good success "In this Park" over his career, going 1-4 O/U overall. His career ERA down here in Texas is a low 2.84. He pitched here THREE times last season, and allowed 1 earned run... 2 earned runs... and 3 earned runs in a total of 19.1 innings pitched (2.79 ERA). Throughout the course of his career, he's gone 8-20 O/U in his last 28 road starts. Also 0-7 O/U in Thursday 'Getaway Day' GAME THREE of any series.
Meanwhile, MATT HARRISON is as hot as they come these days. In his last two starts, he's allowed a total of ZERO earned runs in 14 innings pitched (WHIP of 0.78 and K/BB ratio of 8-1). He's gone 0-3 O/U in his last three starts... and is 0-1 O/U in his lone home start in 2009.
James Patrick Sports
Ducks vs. Red Wings
It's game seven from Hockey Town as the defending Stanley Cup Champions look to advance to the finals in an attempt to retain their Cup. Anaheim is 7-24-1 in Motown and the series home team is 39-18-2. Our NHL Thursday complimentary selection in Stanley Cup Playoff action is Detroit Red Wings.
WUNDERDOG
Game: Boston at Orlando
Pick: First Half UNDER 94.5
The Boston Celtics have stolen two games in this series, overcoming huge deficits to prevail in the end. They have done what they always do, and that is come out playing defense to set the tone. They have kept the three-point shooting of the Magic down.In the last two games, the Celtics have held Orlando to 11-51 good for just 21.5%. That is a lot of empty possessions, while the Celtics work the shot clock to find a good shot. The stakes rise as the series deepens, and the Magic have to lay it on the line here or they are going home. That usually means coming out playing intense defense. These games have already seen four of the five games play to 94 points, 92, 90, and 82 points in the first half. In fact, 14 of the past 16 times these two teams have met, the first-half has gone UNDER! With so much at stake here, the intensity to start this one should be even more focused on the defensive end. The Magic are 13-3 UNDER this season in the first-half when revenging a loss. Boston is a ridiculous 21-4 UNDER this season when facing a team that outscores their opponents by 3+ ppg. This one should play UNDER as well.
Scott Rickenbach
New York Mets @ San Francisco Giants
PICK: New York Mets
The Giants are coming off of a very high scoring series with the Nationals. However, it was the Nats that got the best of the Giants in the last game as they won at San Francisco yesterday. The Mets should do the same tonight. The Giants only managed six hits in yesterday’s game and now they face John Maine who has a 3-0 and 2.00 ERA in his last three starts! Maine’s 4.95 ERA on the season is also quite deceiving because he’s only allowed hitters to bat .195 against him this season. Also, in his last three starts, he’s only allowed 7 hits in 18 innings! We just don’t see the Giants doing much against him in this setting tonight. Some of their recent exploits at the plate have been helped greatly by the fact they were facing some weak pitching but Maine certainly doesn’t fall into that category. Also, the Mets should give Maine plenty of run support tonight.
New York will be “teeing off” against Jonathan Sanchez of the Giants and the southpaw is struggling to get his season on track! Control has been a major issue for the left-hander as he has walked 22 in his 25 innings that spanned five starts. Also, he’s now starting to get hit harder too. After a solid start to the season in terms of “dancing around” the walks, teams are starting to make him pay. Sanchez has allowed 9 earned runs on 11 hits and 10 walks in his last two starts and he’s only gone a total of nine innings in those two outings. Tonight you can take the better team, better starting pitcher, better bullpen, and much better lineup all at a reduced price thanks to that club being on the road. That spells value and that’s why we’re recommending that you consider a small play on the New York Mets on the money line for Thursday night.
Rob Homyak
HOU / LAL Under 197
Play UNDER HOUSTON on the total in All games in home games
The record is 35 Overs and 55 Unders for the last two seasons (+16.50 units)
Play UNDER HOUSTON in All games
The record is 193 Overs and 344 Unders since 1996 (+131.70 units)
The under a 3-2 edge in this series and a 5-2 mark the last seven times these squads have faced off.
Los Angeles under streaks of 6-2 overall, 15-5 on Thursdays, 5-2 after getting one day off and 4-1 following a straight-up win. Houston under streaks include 7-2 overall, 6-1 at home, 7-2 against the Western conference, 6-2 after getting a day off and 11-5 when coming off a straight-up loss.
Head to Head
Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.
Nite Owl Sports
Boston Celtics @ Orlando Magic
2 units: Boston Celtics +7
There are two ways to look at this game, and which path is taken will determine which side one takes in this game 6. The first approach, which obviously some bettors and line makers have taken (given the high line on this game) is that (i) Magic is the better of the two teams and will take out their game 4 and 5 frustrations on Celtics at home in this game and (ii) Celtics will “mail this one in,” especially if they get behind early, knowing that they have game 7 at home. But we don’t buy any of that, for a few reasons. First, Celtics players and coaches know that given their near disaster in game 5 at home, and their home loss in game one, a game 7 home win is no sure thing, and thus they’d better knock out this dangerous Orlando team whenever they have the chance, the first such chance being tonite. And with Cavs next up for Celtics if they win this series, and knowing how “spent” they were for game one of this series after that grueling 7 game marathon vs Bulls, HC Doc Rivers has surely been telling his players that they will be much better off if they can end this series tonite and get at least two days’ rest before having to face Cavs in Cleve. And then there is the “C factor” (character and coaching). As we’ve said in write ups of our victorious picks on Boston in games 4 and 5, and we’ll say again, despite the obvious talent on this Magic team and their convincing game 3 series home win, we don’t believe they have the “character” or the coaching necessary to make a serious run at the NBA title. And that was shown in spades in game 5, where Magic held a 14 point lead (77-63) midway thru 4Q, but “gagged” down the stretch, giving up an 11-0 run to Celtics by taking a number of ill-advised shots” (e.g., Lewis’ 25 foot “bomb” with more than ten seconds left on the shot clock, that did not even “draw iron,” and Turk’s left-handed “hail mary” driving lay up that barely hit the “glass”), while Celtics were working the ball around to get high % shots or at least get to the FT line on each possession (and BTW, Celtics were a perfect 21-21 from the “charity stripe” in game 5). And we believe that Magic HC Stan Van Gundy, who, unlike Doc Rivers, is NOT A BIG-TIME COACH, is largely responsible for that collapse, by not controlling his team, failing to remind his guys that all they had to do in order to win the game was work the game clock under 10 seconds on each possession, and get the ball “inside” to Dwight Howard, the best big man on the floor. Instead, we don’t recall Howard even touching the ball in the last five minutes until the final seconds, by which time his team was already behind, and Celtics knew they could afford to foul him, which they did.
And in order to determine which type of bet(s) gives us a good chance to win with Boston (FG, 1H or 1Q), we checked the scoring patterns of these teams in several “representative games” for each -- Boston on the road when playing the NBA's top defensive teams (Orlando being in the top five defensively, even though they did not look like it in game two), and Magic at home vs vs such good defensive teams. First, we looked at how both teams did vs FG line in their representative games, with those games including all four between these two teams TY in Orlando. Including their game 3 blowout win last fri night, Magic were just 3-5 ATS at home TY vs such good defensive teams, with an average margin of victory of 3 points in those games. And as far as Celtics are concerned, other than two bad losses to Cavs at the "Q," a place where they seem convinced they can't win (and thus don't), they were they were 5-2 ATS (with average result a tie) in their other 7 road games (incl their game 3 loss in orlando) against such teams, with two regular season ATS wins at Orlando in addition to their huge game 4 win in this series, and SU wins at SA and Houston on the plus side, with only a nine point loss to Lakers at Staples and that game 3 loss to Magic being their only ATS losses in such representative road games outside of Cleve. Moreover, including games 3 and 4, Boston is 4-2 ATS the last two years in Orlando, including 3-1 ATS and 2-2 SU TY, with an average MOL of just 3 points, skewed somewhat by that 21 point game 3 loss. But recall that in game 4 in Orlando, Magic as a team shot just 40% (incl a brick-like 5-27 treys) on 84 total shots, compared to 53% for Celtics on 73 shots, with numerous hurried shots by Magic, compared to much better ball movement and shot selection by Celtics. As a result, Magic gave up its early 1Q lead midway through 2Q, to end up down by 2 at HT, and then failed to “wake up” until the game’s final minutes, mounting a valiant but “too little, too late” comeback which fell short, thus allowing the Boston backers to line up at the "pay window" after the game.
So while this pick on Boston vs this generous full game line of +7 is not our strongest pick on this game (you’ll have to buy at least our one day NBA pass for just $35 to get our stronger picks), we have enough support here for a two unit pick on Boston at +7> (make it one unit at +6 or 6.5, and pass at < 6).
Yankee Capper
NHL
Anaheim/Detroit Over 5.5
NBA
Houston Rockets +9
MLB
Pittsburgh Pirates +110
New York Yankees -145
New York Mets -125
Mike Rose
Boston Celtics +7
The Celtics were down 14 points with just six minutes remaining in Game 5, but came back to claim a huge victory over the Magic. Boston can close out Orlando with a second consecutive road victory after taking a win in Game 4. Celtics F Paul Pierce has been a big part of helping his team rip victory from the jaws of defeat in the L/2 games. Pierce flirted with a triple-double on Tuesday going for 19 points, nine rebounds, and eight assists. The Celtics are 8-2-1 ATS in their L/11 road games overall. Despite what the spread says, Boston has to be a slight favorite in the minds of NBA bettors Thursday night with their 14-5 ATS mark in their L/19 Thursday contests.
The Magic have got to be demoralized as they have come so close to ending this series already only to have the Celtics make clutch plays to beat them in the L/2 contests. Orlando choked away another double-digit lead late in the playoff game Tuesday night and now finds them on the brink of elimination. Magic F Rashard Lewis has had a solid series averaging 20.8 PPG and 6.6 RPG. Lewis has been the foundation of Orlandos offense and will need help from C Dwight Howard who hasnt been himself in this series for the Magic to extend the series to a seventh game. Orlando is just 4-13 in its L/17 games played against teams from the Atlantic division.
The Magic have already choked away any chance they have at winning this series and their confidence has to be shattered after a tough loss in Game 5. Head Coach Stan Van Gundy has really showed his ineptitude during crunch time of this series, and looks to be one of the main reasons Orlandos failed to close games they seemingly already had in the bag. Look for the Celtics to beat and batter the Magic down low in this contest to open up their outside shots. Boston will take Game 6 in comfortable fashion and send the Magic out to Orlandos fine array of golf courses.
Carolina Hurricanes @ Boston Bruins Under 5
If the Carolina Hurricanes end up going home tonight, theyll do plenty of kicking themselves in the offseason. Their offense has been horrible over these L/2 games, and their goaltending hasnt been much better. G Cam Ward has conceded eight goals over the L/2 games, and only had a .789 save percentage in Game 6. The Bruins only got off four shots on net in the third period. Relatively speaking, C Eric Staal has been completely MIA since Game 4 when he scored a pair of goals. He only has one point in two games, and has a +/- of -3. After scoring twice with the man advantage in Game 4, the Carolina power play has been totally stymied. The unit looks lost on the ice at times, and seems like it has forgotten how to put a team away in a series.
How much of that can be attributed to the power of the #2 seed in the East, though? Thanks in large part to the play of D Zdeno Chara and G Tim Thomas, the Bruins have bullied their way into Game 7 of this series. Chara has delivered several crushing blows to the front line of the Hurricanes, but when they have gotten through, Thomas has come calling. His Game 5 shutout may have been the best game of his career, but allowing only two goals on 33 shots, including stopping 13 out of 14 in a third period where he was constantly peppered, may have made Game 6 just as impressive. Last season, the Bruins were trying to play the role of Cinderella as the #8 seed against the #1 Canadiens, but fell short in Game 7. Will Thomas luck be any better tonight?
Its hard to make a call in this game. Boston has clearly been the better side over the L/2 games in this series, but there is a lot of Stanley Cup experience on the other side. Instead, the play here seems to be the under yet again. Under bettors suffered their first loss of the series in Game 6, but theyre still 3-1-2 to show for their efforts. Dont be surprised to see a 1-1 game go into several OTs tonight.
Drew Gordon
LA Lakers -8' at HOUSTON
For tonight's complimentary play, I'm looking at Lakers/Rockets Game 6 showdown.
So, it may have taken Kobe and company one game to adjust to the Rockets' small-ball lineup, but once they did, it has becomes painfully clear these two teams are NOT on the same level. Look for that to continue tonight and here's why:
Granted, we expect the Rockets to be better at home tonight facing elimination, but fact is they simply do not have the size to contend with the Lakers' big frontline. Between Gasol and Bynum, you're talking about two legit 7-footers, one with plenty of moves, and one with plenty of athleticism and power. Hayes and Scola are both overmatched on both ends of the floor, and it'll show once again tonight.
Second, I told you with my 100K paid play winner Tuesday, that players like Aaron Brooks and Kyle Lowry would not play anywhere near the level they did in Game 4, once coach Jackson and Lakers made the adjustments in Game 5. And that's exactly what happened. More of the same tonight, as we expect the Rockets to shoot better as a team then they did in Game 5 (just 32 percent), but they still won't be able to keep pace with this LA attack. They have depth, but counting on role players to score 30+ points (like Brooks in Game 4) is not a winning proposition.
Finally, consider the trends, as the Lakers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine meetings with the Rockets, but even more importantly, 9-3 ATS in their last 12 visits to Houston.
Look guys, I give the Rockets credit for playing without their best two players, but eventually it was going to catch up to them. That time has come, as the Lakers drop the hammer on the Rockets tonight, ending their season with a thud.
2♦ LA LAKERS
Michael Cannon
NY Yankees -145 at TORONTO
The Cardinal fail to get it done again over the Pirates, but on the bright side my series bet with the Penguins cashes in as they completely destroy the Caps in Game 7 last night! I’m now 21-11-1 with my last 33 overall free plays.
Take the Yankees as the heavy road favorite tonight over the Blue Jays.
Usually I don’t like laying the heavy price with a road team, but I’ll make an exception tonight.
I’m banking on C. C. Sabathia building off his last start, when he pitched a complete-game, four-hit shutout over the Orioles. The left-hander hasn’t pitched poorly on the road this year, where he’s 2-2 despite a fine 3.10 ERA.
The Yankees in general need to get on a roll and Sabathia is being counted on as the ace, so what better time to side with them then now?
Brian Tallet will start for Toronto and he’s 2-1 with a 4.95 ERA on the year. The left-hander has fared well in his last two starts, but they were against the light-hitting Indians and A’s.
Sabathia is 7-3 with a 3.46 ERA in 10 career starts against Toronto, including 3-1 with a 2.88 ERA in four starts at the Rogers Centre.
Tallet has never started against New York and his experience consists of 20 relief appearances covering 28 1-3 innings.
Take the Yankees as they grab the road win behind a strong effort by Sabathia.
2♦ NY YANKEES
Chris Jordan
LA. Lakers -8 at HOUSTON
The Nuggets are in the Western Conference Finals before the Lakers, that's something that won't sit well with Kobe Bryant and company. That'll be the motivation tonight, nothing more and nothing less.
The Rockets weren't supposed to win Game 4, but they did. And yes, I gave them to you. I didn't think they'd win that game, but okay, we'll take it.
It's time for the Lakers to stake claim to this series and move on.
Outmatched in Game 5, the Lakers were reminded just how good they are and will carry that over to tonight. Lay the road chalk.
1♦ LAKERS