Jim Feist
Chicago Cubs vs St Louis Cardinals
Take Under
Both teams have been missing some key offensive bats. The Cubs' lack of depth at third base has created a strain on the lineup beyond the loss of All-Star Aramis Ramirez. Mike Fontenot is in a 1-for-29 stretch going back more than two weeks, which is not good with Ramirez probably out until after the All-Star break because of his shoulder injury. Bobby Scales, like Fontenot a natural second baseman, is Piniella's next choice at third, and he has only eight games of big-league experience. Lou Piniella admitted this week: "We're not exactly crushing the ball on offense." 2 above average starters go here, in Sean Marshall and Adam Wainwright. Don't look for many runs in this NL game, play the Cubs/Cardinals under the total.
Game Time Sports Advisors
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cincinnati Reds
Play: Philadelphia Phillies
Sometimes, teams just win with a certain guys on the hill. Today, that guy is Joe Blanton. Philly is 11-3 his last 14 starts, and 5-1 his last 6 road starts. Coming off a tough loss last night, we look for the Phillies offense to get it going in this afternoon game in Cincy's bandbox.
LT Profits
Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals
The St. Louis Cardinals have taken the first two games of this series with the Chicago Cubs by scored of 3-0 and 2-1, and we see a similarly low scoring game here tonight.
Cards starter Adam Wainwright has pitched much better at home this season than his 1-2 home mark would indicate, as he had a spiffy 3.16 ERA in this ballpark with a nice 1.24 WHIP in five starts. He tossed a gem in his last start, limiting the Milwaukee Brewers to only one run and two hits with seven strikeouts in eight innings, albeit to no avail in a tough-luck 1-0 loss. He also owns four Quality Starts in his last five starts vs. the Cubs over the last two years.
The Cubs counter with Sean Marshall, who has allowed three runs or less in four of his five starts this year including one vs. St. Louis. In fact, he has now allowed three runs or less in each of his last six career starts against the Cardinals. The southpaw should take advantage of a Redbirds lineup that is hitting just .222 vs. left-handed pitchers this season, including a pathetic .185 over the last 10 games!
The Under is now 13-3-1 in the last 17 road starts made by Marshall, and when we factor in the sharp home form of Wainwright, look for that to continue.
Pick: Cubs/Cardinals Under 8.5
John Ryan
Oakland Athletics vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Play: Tampa Bay Rays
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Tampa Bay as the host Oakland slated to start at 4:05 EST. Supporting this graded play is a strong system that has posted a 58-5 mark for 92% winners since 2003. Play against all dogs with a money line of +175 to +250 and is a cold hitting team batting .250 or worse over their last 20 games facing an opponent with a hot starting pitcher posting a WHIP <= 1.000 over his last 5 starts. Impressive to say the least, but still just a system that REINFORCES the grading from the AiS on TB. Oakland is just 3-17 (-13.6 Units) against the money line in road games versus an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.200 or better over the last 2 seasons; 7-24 (-16.0 Units) against the money line in road games in day games over the last 2 seasons. TB Manager knows how to get his team ready to defeat weaker opponents. Note that he is 52-9 (+35.7 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -150 or more in all games he has coached at TB. Oakland starter Bradon is still having trouble applying pressure to the ball with his middle finger. The inability of have different amounts of pressure on a ball causes the ball to have far less movement on it. Less movement means balls hit more often and a lot harder. Take TB.
Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees
Play: Baltimore Orioles
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Baltimore as they face the NYY slated to start at - Supporting this graded play is a strong system that has posted a 80-62 mark making 42.6 units since 2003. Play against all favorites with a money line of -110 or higher with a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.50 or worse on the season and with poor defensive catchers allowing 0.85 + SB's/game on the season. Yanks, more times than not, take for granted a win against an inferior opponent before the game even starts. Note that they are 11-17 (-19.4 Units) against the money line versus an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 6.20 or worse over the last 3 seasons. They are also 22-30 (-21.2 Units) against the money line when the total is 10 or higher over the last 2 seasons. Take Baltimore.
Tom Freese
San Francisco at San Diego
San Francisco is 9-3 their last 12 games as favorites and they are 4-1 their last 5 games as road favorites. The Giants are 7-1 with Tim Lincecum in Game 3 of a series and they are 6-1 with Lincecum in his last 7 starts vs. the Padres. San Diego is 4-10 their last 14 games vs. NL West foes and they are 4-12 their last 16 games as underdogs. The Padres are 4-9 their last 13 games vs. a pitcher with a WHIP of over 1.30. PLAY ON SAN FRANCISCO - (Lincecum vs. Correia)
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
CAR (+70) vs PIT
What the Hurricanes couldn't prevent the Penguins from doing was winning. Since a team taking a 2-0 series lead goes on to win about 85 percent of the time, the Hurricanes can't realistically expect to win the series if they go back to Raleigh without a split in Pittsburgh. Despite numerous scoring chances by both teams, Game 1 was tighter defensively than any of those during the Penguins-Capitals series, and Pittsburgh coach Dan Bylsma knows Carolina wants Game 2 to be similar. Look for CAROLINA to improve to a perfect 5-0 (+8 units) when trailing in a playoff series!
Jrtips
CUBS vs. CARDINALS
After being shut down in the first two games of the series, the Cubs look to avoid being swept by the Cardinals. Chicago (21-17) arrived in St. Louis (23-17) winners of 11 of 15 averaging 5.7 runs in those games but has had no offense against the Cardinals. The Cubs just had three hits in Tuesday's 3-0 and Wednesday' 2-1 loss. The Cubs will have trouble again today getting their offense on track versus Adam Wainwright (3-2, 3.83 ERA). Wainwright is coming off one of the best starts of his career on Saturday when he allowed only one run, two hits and two walks with seven strikeouts. Wainwright is 1-0 with a 3.46 ERA in two starts against Chicago this season, with the Cardinals winning each. Albert Pujols had two hits, but has gone seven games without a homer and five without an RBI. The reigning NL MVP is hitless in five at-bats against today's starting pitcher Sean Marshall (2-2, 4.02). In Marshall's last start, he gave up two runs and five hits in five innings of a 4-2 win over the Brewers.He is 0-1 with a 4.91 ERA in two outings against the Cardinals this season. Both of these teams are having trouble scoring and it won"t help that they are both facing tough pitchers. This series has been low scoring and today wont be any different.
TAKE UNDER 8 1/2 runs
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Florida Marlins +105
I'll back the Marlins at home at a great price tonight behind the lefty Miller. Miller was solid in his only home start of the season, picking up the win and posting a respectable 3.60 ERA. He's been effective against Arizona in his career, posting an ERA of 2.13 and a WHIP of 1.105. This success comes as no surprise as the weak-hitting D-backs, who average only 3.1 runs per game on the road, struggle like crazy against lefty starters. In fact, the Snakes are only 4-9 against southpaw starters this season and 1-6 in their last 7 road games vs. a left-handed starter. The Diamondbacks are only 3-7 in the last 10 meetings and I like Florida's chances at the plate against Scherzer as the Diamondbacks are just 3-11 in his last 14 starts and 1-7 in his last 8 road starts. Bet the Fish.
Doc's Sports
Arizona D-Backs vs. Florida Marlins
Play: Arizona D-Backs
Max Scherzer, the young right-hander for the Arizona Diamondbacks, finally has the monkey off his back. Scherzer, a first-round pick in 2007 went 0-4 with a 3.05 ERA in 16-seven starts-as a rookie last season. Last Saturday he pitched six scoreless innings against the Braves to earn his first career win. It took him until his 14th start to get his first win. Now, with that win under his belt, the floodgates will open, and many more will follow. The kid has great stuff. Looking for him to win again today against a Marlin team that is just 8-11 at home this season.
Dave Malinsky
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Washington Nationals
PICK: Pittsburgh Pirates
Yes, we are in play again here – there will not be any mystery. For the fourth day in a row the markets insist on sending out the worst team in the major League’s in the role of the favorite, at the very same time that the team they are playing adds to a win streak, which means that not only do we get the superior team here, but also one playing with a much higher level of confidence. And we all know what the confidence can mean in the latter stages of a close baseball game.
Craig Stammen gets the call for Washington tonight because the Nationals want to give Daniel Cabrera at least one start off to get his head back together, or perhaps even more. And while Stammen checks in with a 4-2/1.80 at AAA, he is an awful fit here. Stammen pitches to contact, striking out only 14 batters in those 40 innings in the Minors, and that is suicidal with the worst defense in the Major Leagues behind him (and one that rivals the worst that we have ever tracked). We are not even sure that he is much of a prospect anyway. The former 12th round draft choice worked to an ugly 1-4/7.33 at AAA LY before coming up with a new four-seam fastball this spring that has made things better, but those strikeout counts are alarming, and the fact that he has only gone beyond the sixth inning once so far brings that awful Washington bullpen into play again.
There is value found here because Ian Snell has been an underachiever so far, but we believe his stuff is better than the numbers can show, and that rain-shortened outing vs. Colorado brings him in here fresh. His last two road starts were solid performances against the Brewers and Mets in which he allowed only four runs in 13 innings, and with a confident team behind him he brings more than enough to trust in this favorable price range.
MTi Sports
Milwaukee Brewers at Houston Astros
Prediction: Houston Astros
The Astros are 26-4 when Roy Oswalt starts as a home favorite after a quality start on the road and the Brewers are 0-13 in the last game of a three game road series when they split the first two and they were favored in game two. Consider the Astros.
Yankee Capper
NBA
Denver Nuggets +5.5
MLB
Pittsburgh Pirates +115
Detroit Tigers -130
Philadelphia Phillies -120
Jack Jones
Nuggets/Lakers OVER 211
I'm backing a system that has gone 46-14 (76.7%) since 1996 that says to play the over if the total is 210 or greater and the road team is coming off a close loss by 3 points or less against an opponent who scored 105 points or more. The Lakers are 32-13 OVER off a close home win by 3 points or less since 1996 and 14-4 OVER coming off two straight wins at home this year. Denver is averaging 111 ppg in the playoffs while the Lakers are putting up 108 ppg at home on the season.
Randall the Handle
Pittsburgh +1.06 over WASHINGTON
The pathetic Nationals are reeling so badly right now that any take-back against them has to be considered the prudent move. They just can’t win and with each loss it gets more difficult to pick up a W. Tonight they’ll rely on a rookie pitcher again with the worst bullpen in history backing him up. Craig Stammen had a decent ERA at Triple-A Syracuse but ERA does not tell the whole story. He finished the season last year 1-4 with a 7.33 ERA in nine appearances. Eight of those nine appearances were starts with Triple-A Columbus of the International League and it’s also worth noting that he started the year at Class-A. This season at Syracuse he struck out just 14 batters in 40 innings and now he’s being asked to step into a pressure-filled role at the highest level there is. If he can’t whiff minor-leaguers, major-leaguers should smack him around. The Nats are making a lot of premature moves and this can’t turn out good for them. This is a team in big trouble and with the Pirates winning six straight and feeling great they surely have an edge here. Play: Pittsburgh +1.06 (Risking 2 units).
ATLANTA –1½ +1.77 over Colorado
Unlike the Nats, the Braves bring pitching prospects along slowly and only promote them when they’re absolutely ready to make the leap from the minors to the majors. Enter Kris Medlan, a guy that’s been tearing it up in the minors. Pitching this year for the Gwinnett Braves of the Triple-A International League he’s gone 5-0 with a 1.19 ERA. In 37 innings he’s allowed just 20 hits, none of them homeruns, while striking out 44. In three May starts his ERA was 0.45. The kid is ready and the Braves hitters will be a little juiced up in support of Medlan. Aaron Cook has made eight starts and while he’s 2-1, the team is just 2-6 when he starts. Cook has made four road starts and has been completely crushed in all but one of them. That one quality start was in San Diego and that park makes everyone look good. The Braves have won nine of its last 13 games, they’ve scored 20 runs in the last two days against the Rockies and they should have an easy time of it again here. Play: Atlanta –1½ +1.77 (Risking 2 units).
Denver +2.20 over L.A. LAKERS
The Nuggets pretty much had the lead the whole game in the opener of this series only to fall behind with about 50 seconds left in the fourth quarter. Had they converted a higher percentage of their free throws, the game might not have been close. Anyway, there is no denying that the Nuggets can go toe-to-toe with the Lakers and then some. Game one was a good lesson and even though they lost, the Nuggets have to be feeling pretty good about their chances here. Carmello Anthony was terrific, Chancey Billups is a playoff monster, the defense is terrific and they’ll make the adjustments and compete again in this one. The Lakers are almost always overpriced and while the 5½ points is tempting, there is just too much value straight up to pass on the Nuggets. Play: Denver +2.20 (Risking 2 units)
Who2BetOn
The Toronto Blue Jays were flying high with the best record in the American League coming into this series with the Boston Red Sox, but the Sox have asserted themselves at home and we look for them to complete the three-game sweep in decisive fashion.
Boston got to the previously hot Brett Cecil last night in an 8-3 beat-down that featured David Ortiz finally hitting his first home run of the year. Now, they get to face Robert Ray, who was terrible in his only road start when he allowed six runs and 10 hits in 6.1 innings vs. the Los Angeles Angels in Anaheim. He now must contend with a Red Sox lineup that is batting a robust .317 vs. right-handed pitching at Fenway Park this season while averaging 6.39 runs per game.
Granted, Boston starter Jon Lester has been off his game thus far with a 6.51 ERA. However, he does still have good stuff as evidenced by his 54 strikeouts in 47 innings, so it is just a matter of time before he gets things back together. Tonight might be a good start, as he allowed only one run and five hits in 16 innings over two home appearances vs. the Blue Jays last season.
We look for Lester to regain his form and for the Boston bats to keep on thumping, so we recommend a play on the Run Line at + odds.
Pick: Red Sox -1.5