Vernon Croy
Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox
Pick: Boston Red Sox -180
Take the Boston Red Sox on the Moneyline, This pick falls into one of my top MLB systems but because this line is above my personal -150 maximum limit it is not a premium play for me today although I like it a lot. The Jays are just 1-5 in their last 6 games as a dog and their starter Robert Ray (1-1, 3.60 ERA) has been very inconsistent this season. The Red Sox are a perfect 5-0 in their last 5 home games against a team with a victorious record on the road and they are 12-1 Jon Lester's (2-4, 6.51 ERA) last 13 starts against a team with a victorious record. The Red Sox are 22-5 in Lester's last 27 home starts and they are 17-7 in their last 24 games when favored. The Jays are just 0-4 now in their last 4 trips to Boston and just 1-5 in their last 6 games against the Red Sox. The Jays are just 5-15 in their last 20 games as a road dog of +150 to +175 and the Red Sox are now 15-4 at home this season. Take the Boston Red Sox as my Complimentary MLB Play for Thursday night.
Scott Rickenbach
Colorado Rockies @ Atlanta Braves
PICK: Under 9
We believe that Kris Medlen will prove to be the “real deal”. The rookie right-hander makes his debut today and he was mowing down hitters at the AAA level. He’s got great stuff, great location, and he’s got a well-rested bullpen backing him up. All the key Braves arms in the pen are ready for this one if needed. However, don’t be surprised if Medlen pitches deep into this one. It will be tough for the Rockies to adjust to him on a “first look” and Medlen has good velocity as well as solid command. He struck out 44 in 37.2 innings of work at the AAA level and he’ll be missing plenty of bats up here in the bigs as well. The Rockies annual road struggles have continued as they are just 8-14 away from home. That means another tough evening here for the bats but the reason we’re looking at the under, rather than the Braves, here is because we also expect a very strong start from Colorado’s Aaron Cook!
The sinkerballer Cook shows a lofty 5.71 ERA in the books so far this season but his numbers have been greatly impacted by a few poor outings. Note that he has produced five quality starts in his eight outings and it’s the “other three” that have jacked his numbers up. We have every reason to believe that this will be a strong outing for Cook. He’s coming off of a rough outing and he hasn’t gone back to back starts without a quality performance this entire season. Also, his career numbers against the Braves may not be that impressive but he held them to a .170 batting average last season in two starts against them! It will be very humid at Turner Field tonight. In fact, unfortunately there is a 50% chance of showers. But, the humidity can help Cook to get the good sinking action he desires as he relies so heavily on his sinkerball to get key outs. Yes, the Braves had scored well in their last two games but, prior to this, they had scored a total of just five runs in their last three games! Cook can bring them right back down to reality here! Consider a small play on UNDER the total in Atlanta on Thursday night!
Mike Rose
Carolina Hurricanes +170
The Canes clearly weren't ready for Game 1 against the Penguins, as they had a very lackluster first period of play. After being outscored 2-0 in the first, Carolina settled down and started to get back into their slower pace to the game. Goalie Cam Ward gave up three goals on 31 shots. Though it wasn't entire his fault that the Hurricanes find themselves down 1-0 in this series, he needs to play better against a vicious Pittsburgh offense in order for the Canes to advance. Superstar C Eric Staal was nowhere to be found for Carolina in Game 1, marking the second straight game in which he failed to record a point after recording 11 points in his previous eight games. The keys for the Canes tonight include better play from Ward and simply developing more chances. The power play only had two chances to work all night, and as a result, Carolina ended up 7.6 shots below their season-average of 32.6 shots per game.
Meanwhile, everyone has to be smiling in Pittsburgh right now. The Pens clearly looked the better side in Game 1, and appear to be headed to their second straight Stanley Cup final. The stars were all aligned in some form for Pittsburgh on Monday night, as both Malkin and C Sidney Crosby found their ways onto the stat sheet. G Marc-Andre Fleury is hot, as he has won five of his L/6 games. For the second straight outing, he was fantastic, allowing just two goals on 25 shots on net. The health of D Sergei Gonchar is clearly improving, as he was on the ice two nights ago for almost 22 minutes in just his second game back from injury after suffering an injury following a huge collision with Washington's Alexander Ovechkin.
The Canes didn't play their best hockey and still almost left the Burgh with a win on Monday night. At some point, you'd like to think that Carolina is going to steal one of these games on the road, and at +170, the price is too good to turn down. Look for this series to be knotted up heading back to Carolina.
King Creole
ANA (+105) vs SEA
Just like last night's play on the PIRATES, it appears that the WRONG team is favored tonight in this West-Coaster. This is a series that LOS ANGELES has DOMINATED. The Angels are 40-17 in the last 57 games vs the Mariners... and 10-3 when playing IN Seattle. The poor Mariners are 3-12in their last 12... 0-7 vs fellow division opponents... 1-6 as a home favorite... and 0-7 when playing off a (rare) win. Meanwhile, the Halos are 6-0 vs LOSING (<.500) teams... 4-0 vs their last 4 vs lefties... and 4-0 after allowing 2 or less runs.
JOE SAUNDERS has the Mariners 'number'. He's a PERFECT 5-0 in his last 5 starts vs Seattle with a 2.85 ERA. And "In THIS Park", his ERA is a sharp 1.86. ERIC BEDARD is 2-6 in his last 8 starts vs the Angels. His ERA is 7.62 in those 8 starts. WRONG team is favored.
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Free Selection from Totals4U
Thursday's free selection: Cubs/Cardinals over 8 1/2
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Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports
264 - 172 run 60 % 9-2 last 11
FREE play LA Angels
WED TY Pitt Pirates TY Tues Bost red Sox
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EZWINNER'S FREE SELECTION
(966) Detroit Tigers -$129
(Listing Jackson and Millwood)
The Tigers cashed in yet another free winner for us yesterday
and I'm going to ride them again today. Edwin Jackson has
been pitching well and the Rangers bats have gone cold. I look
for the Tigers to get to Millwood in this game.
Lay the juice with Detroit.
2009 Free Selections Record 75-62 (54.7%)
8)
barry robinson sports
ariz -119 1* (their free play)
lakers over 210.5 7*
fla/ariz over 9 5*
seattle -115 5*
balt/yanks over 10.5 3*