GINA
Orlando Magic at Cleveland Cavaliers
Go with the Magic in a close fight. The underdog has covered the spread in 11 of the last 15 contests in this rivalry and Orlando is 7-0 ATS in the last seven battles in Cleveland.
Orlando Magic +7½
Atlanta Braves at Arizona Diamondbacks
Go with the Braves with Derek Lowe on the hill. The right-hander is 5-1 with a 3.54 ERA in his last six starts and 4-1 with a 1.91 ERA in his last six starts against Arizona. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks have lost seven of its last nine home games and Arizona's right-hander Dan Haren has struggle in his last three starts.
Atlanta Braves +105
Johnny Guild
Orlando Magic at Cleveland Cavaliers
Take the generous points! The Magic are 7-0 ATS in the last 7 clashes against the Cavaliers in Cleveland.
Orlando Magic +7.5
Mr A
Orlando Magic +7½
Boston Red Sox -120
Los Angeles Dodgers +110
MLB Computer Picks
Boston Red Sox -125
Baltimore Orioles -110
Scott Delaney
Now on an 8-1 run with the complimentary releases, and today we're looking at the early game between the Red Sox and Twins, and we're playing this one Over the posted total.
Josh Beckett is toeing the slab for Boston, while Anthony Swarzak is on the hill for Minnesota.
And while the Sox-ace continued his recent string of sharp outings last Saturday, recording a season-high eight innings in a no-decision against the Mets at Fenway Park, and the Twins righty was spectacular in his MLB debut pitching seven scoreless innings against the Brewers on Saturday, I honestly believe both get shelled today.
Let's start with Beckett, who is 2-1 with a 4.74 ERA in three career starts against the Twins. The right-hander might have found his stride at home with that stunning performance at home, but he's still just 2-2 on the highway this season, and he's sporting a 6.08 ERA along with it. And prior to his last road start, that number was higher. So what if he went into Seattle and shut the M's down by allowing just two earned runs over seven frames, these Twins have guys like Mauer swinging hard and aiming for the bleachers. And this is a venue that is, ahem, affectionately known as the Homer Domer.
With Swarzak, well, I've said this many times that a Major League-debut is the most valuable play on a pitcher in his entire career. There is no scouting report, there's no clue what to expect, you don't know how his poise will be ... you get the point. But now the Sox have something to go on. And they too should be swinging sticks after losing two straight to Minnesota. They won't want to leave here on a three-game skid, and the same way they halted their two-game skid against the Mets last weekend, they'll be trying awfully hard to do the same here with plenty of offense.
Play this one high today.
Red Sox/Twins OVER
Matt Rivers
For Thursday take the Cubs at home.
No doubt Lou's crew has been terrible over the past few weeks, save the last two days but that is creating a very cheap price here at Wrigley and therefore I'll back the Cubbies at home today.
Randy Wells has done nothing but put up goosegg after goosegg. The guy is not the most highly touted young kid out there but the way he has been hurling he's looking like a future phenom. Wells is up against a solid but far from great Randy Wolf who probably will be alright but being on the road and as shorthanded as the Dodgers are this number should be a bit higher.
Chicago has had a ton of trouble of late but let's face it, they are still a very capable club led by studs in Soriano and Lee and should be in the neighborhood of 90 wins when all is said and done.
Los Angeles is shorthanded without Manny and also have other guys that are banged up including their table setter and catalyst in Rafael Furcal.
Look for the Cubs to start winning some ballgames if for the Law of Averages alone. At this cheap price I'll take my chances with the lovable losers.
Fast Cash Freddy
Rays / Indians
Take Rays -105
Look for the Rays to end their 4 game losing streak today! They will send Niemann to the mound who is 2-0 in last 3 with a 1.26 WHIP/2.84ERA! Rays are 3-0 in his last 3 starts! He has pitched very well on the road going 3-1 with a 4.11 ERA 1.18 runs better than home. Pitching has been the Rays problem of late! Today I see them getting plenty of runs against Huff who has been a disaster thus far. The LHP has made 2 MLB Starts and has yet to get out of the third inning. He has a 17.55 ERA and with the Rays hitting well off the LHP 7.08 runs/9 last 5 I expect that to be the difference!
Matt Fargo
Atlanta Braves vs. Arizona D-Backs
Play: Atlanta Braves
The Braves were swept in San Francisco to start the week but they are still a game over .500 on the road this season so there is a great opportunity to catch some value in a bounce back situation. Atlanta had won 12 of its previous 17 prior to its series with the Giants but the offense was unable to get anything going. The Braves faced two left-handed starters and could not produce and they also had to encounter Tim Lincecum. Arizona dropped its home series with the Padres as the bats came alive but the pitching once again letdown as it allowed 22 runs in that three-game set. The Diamondbacks have a team ERA of 5.12 over their last 10 games while allowing 5.9 rpg over that stretch. They hope Dan Haren can help get out of the rut but he is coming off his worst outing of the season after tossing eight straight quality outings to begin the year. Some could point to this being a bounce back spot for him and while that could be the case, he has struggled at home to pick up wins. His ERA at home is a solid 2.00 in five starts but Arizona is just 2-3 in those games as it has given him only 2.2 rpg of offensive support. Haren faced the Braves once last season and was hammered for six runs on 10 hits in just 5.1 innings. The Braves counter with Derek Lowe and he is once again pitching well after a hiccup four starts ago. He has tossed six quality outings in his last seven starts, allowing only two earned runs in five of those games. He knows the Diamondbacks very well from his days in Los Angeles and in his last six starts against them, he has posted a 1.91 ERA and this season, the offense of Arizona is even worse. The Diamondbacks are 3-13 in their last 16 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150 while the Braves are 5-2 in their last 7 games as an underdog. 3* Atlanta Braves
Tom Freese
Atlanta Braves at Arizona Diamondbacks
Prediction: Under
Atlanta is 19-7-1 UNDER after allowing 5 or more runs in their last game and they are 48-23-2 their last 73 road games vs. righty starters. The Braves are 21-10 UNDER vs. a pitcher who has a WHIP of less than 1.15. Starting pitcher Derek Lowe has allowed 4 or less runs in 8 of his 10 starts this year. Arizona starter Dan Haren has a better than 5 to 1 strikeout to walk ratio in his last 3 starts. The Diamondbacks are 9-3-2 UNDER in Game 1 of a series and they are 4-1 UNDER in Haren's last 5 home starts. PLAY ON 'UNDER' (Haren vs. Lowe)
Dave Price
1 Unit on Chicago Cubs -119
I'll back the Cubs at home tonight as they have some added motivation to win after being knocked out of the postseason by the Dodgers last fall. The Cubs generally smack lefties around the yard. They are 4-1 in their last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter and 35-16 in their last 51 home games vs. a left-handed starter. They should have Wolf's number tonight, who is just 3-7 with a 4.71 ERA in 15 games against the Cubs. The Cubs have momentum on their side again off back-to-back wins and Cubs rookie Randy Wells figures to be tough on the Dodgers without them yet to see him. He enters this game with an ERA of 0.00 at home in 1 start and an ERA of 1.50 in 3 starts this season. The Cubs are 11-1 against the money line in home games vs. teams outscoring opponents by 1 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons and 24-6 against the money line in home games in May over the last 2 seasons. Back the Cubbies.
Free Selection from Totals4U
Thursday's free selection:
Detroit Tigers/Baltimore Orioles under 10
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Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports
269 - 174 run 60 % current: 14 wins and 4 losses
Thurs pick: Boston Red Sox
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EZWINNER'S FREE SELECTION
Game: Orlando Magic @ Cleveland Cavaliers
(520) Cleveland Cavaliers -7.5
The Cavs are facing elimination and I expect a big
game out of them tonight, much like the Lakers last
night. Cleveland has blown some big early leads in
games one and two, but I don't expect that to
happen here. Lay the points.
2009 Free Selections Record 79-65 (54.9%)
8)
IndianCowboy
Take Over 94.5 for the First Half between the Orlando Magic @ Cleveland Cavaliers
We have seen this occur before between these two teams as the pace in Cleveland is one that is more lively than in Orlando - plus, it is more lively than the second half when defense is likely to take more of a precedence. With all the emotion going on for Cleveland in this game being down 3-1, I expect them to come out with a lot of firepower and in the same token, I don't expect the Magic to simply lay down here as they are likely to keep pace. I look for the first half to be relatively high scoring and the early total to be pushed over. A 50-45 half gets the first half over and despite who takes the side, with emotions riding high in the first portion of this game, the total likely goes a bit over.
Jimmy The Moose
Atlanta Braves at Arizona Diamondbacks
Prediction: Atlanta Braves
Both teams come into this one having lost 3 of their last 4 games. The Braves have won 5 of their last 7 games as a dog. Atlanta has won 5 of Lowe's last 6 starts overall. In his last 5 road starts they are 4-1. Arizona has lost 5 of their last 6 home games. They are 3-13 in their last 16 games as ahome favorite betweem -110 & -150. Arizona is 2-5 in the last 7 meetings. Atlanta has won 4 of their last 5 games in Arizona. Play on the Atlanta Braves +.
John Ryan
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on the Dodgers as they face the Cubs slated to start at 8:00. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 33-14 for 70% winners and has made 21 units since 2003. Play on all teams when the money line is +125 to -125 and is a good hitting team batting >=.275 facing an excellent NL starting pitcher sporting an ERA <=2.70. Dodgers are 15-5 (+10.1 Units) against the money line versus poor fielding teams that are turning 0.8 or less DP's/game this season. And starter Wolf is a solid 19-7 (+12.8 Units) against the money line versus an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse over the last 2 seasons.
VEGAS EXPERTS
Atlanta Braves at Arizona Diamondbacks
Atlanta ace Derek Lowe has shut down the Diamondbacks in his last two starts against them as he has gone 14 scoreless innings, both team wins. He is pitching well again, in his last three starts he has a 2.45 ERA averaging over seven runs per ballgame. This is a revenge game for the Braves as the Diamondbacks shutout them out 12-0 just a few weeks ago in Atlanta. Arizona is just 7-12 SU this season as a home favorite. Go with Atlanta
Play on: Atlanta
Teddy Covers
LA Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs
Take Chicago -130
After a truly dismal 0-6 road trip and a ‘hangover’ loss in their first game back at Wrigley Field, the Chicago Cubs have righted the ship with back-2-back victories in the last two days. A team that was pressing and struggling is now considerably more confident and relaxed, as clearly evidenced by Lou Pinella’s joking to the media after Carlos Zambrano got thrown out of the game last night.
Since their 4-4 start, the Cubs are 10-4 in their last 14 at Wrigley, a team built to dominate on their home field. Don’t be fooled for a moment by Chicago ’s position in fourth place in the NL Central. This team remains one of the ‘class’ teams in the NL, and we’re not likely to find a better ‘buy low’ scenario on the Cubs than the one we’re looking at today.
Rookie righty Randy Wells has been nothing short of outstanding in replacement of the injured Rich Harden. In his first three big league starts, Wells has allowed only 14 hits and 3 runs while striking out 16. In his last outing, he needed only 95 pitches to get through seven full innings against the red hot Padres. Wells has a strong ’buy’ sign on him right now.
Let’s not forget how the Dodgers embarrassed the Cubs in the playoffs last October, winning the first two games right here at Wrigley – this is one of those rare regular season games that actually has some real meaning for the home team. LA starter Randy Wolf has come back to earth after a red hot start. In three starts against the Cubs last year, Wolf lost twice, with an ERA of 6.32. As a team, the Cubs hit .323 against him.
Chicago hits lefties better than righties at home and has hit 38 points higher against southpaws in their last ten games. Put it all together and we can expect the Dodgers to come back to earth in a hurry tonight following their three game sweep in Colorado .
Take the Cubs.
Drew Gordon
Detroit at BALTIMORE -140
Let me start this analysis by saying: I know its never easy to lay this kind of money on a pitcher making his Major League debut, but rest-assured, this is the right move in this contest and here's why:
Before we discuss David Hernandez, let's talk about Armando Galarraga. The Tigers righty has been an absolute disaster this month, going 0-4 with a mind-boggling 9.93 ERA! He's only one month removed from opening the season 3-0 with a 1.85 ERA, which is why so many bettors are salivating at the chance to back him at plus money... DO NOT make the mistake of living in the past, as Galarraga is pitching nowhere near the level he was in April, plain and simple.
On the flip side, while Hernandez is making his debut, let's not simply dismiss him because of it. He was rock-solid in Triple-A Norfolk, where he went 2-1 with 2.91 ERA in 8 starts. His last start saw him strike out 14 batters (led his league in K's), and you better believe that's a big reason he's getting his shot tonight. But that's only part of the reason I like the O's here.
Finally, the biggest factor in my siding with Baltimore has been their red-hot hitting of late, backed by some young guns who have hit the ground running, including Nolan Reimold. Not to mention, one of the O's biggest names makes his Debut tonight in catcher Matt Wieters, who many people consider the best prospect in baseball. Couple them with Markakis, Jones, and Scott and all of a sudden you can see why Galarraga is in SO much trouble tonight.
Small play on Baltimore behind Hernandez over Detroit and Galarraga in this MLB match up.
1♦ BALTIMORE