Bobby Maxwell
Philadelphia at L.A. DODGERS
Still 4-1 with our last five FREE selections after the Giants-Nationals game got rained out on Wednesday. Today we're out west with a comp selection on the Dodgers as they play host to the Phillies.
It's a battle between a couple of southpaws tonight in Los Angeles as the Phillies put Cole Hamels (3-2, 5.21 ERA) on the hill against the Dodgers' Clayton Kershaw (3-3, 4.34). We'll play the home team in this one with Kershaw outdueling the Phils in a low-scoring contest.
Kershaw has a 1.12 ERA at home this season in 24 innings and he's allowed one run or less in each of his four home outings this year. Last time he threw in front of the home fans he held the Angels to one run on four hits in five innings.
Hamels got hammered in his last start, giving up six runs on eight hits in six innings on Saturday in Philadelphia against the Nationals.
The Dodgers took two of three from the Phillies in mid-May and they will get the opener of this four-game set. Los Angeles has won six of the last eight played between these two in California and the Dodgers continue to be red-hot at home. They beat the D'Backs 1-0 on Thursday and have now gone 40-14 in their last 54 at home.
Los Angeles is on further streaks of 36-17 overall, 4-0 against N.L. East teams, 21-8 against southpaws and 43-13 as a home favorite.
The home team has won 12 of the last 16 matchups between these two and you can expect the host to get another here tonight. Play the Dodgers.
2♦ L.A. DODGERS
Michael Cannon
Texas +140 at NEW YORK YANKEES
Take the Rangers as the big road dog this afternoon over the Yankees.
I know the Yankees lineup is one of the most formidable in all of baseball, and it’s even more amplified playing in the sandbox that is the new Yankees Stadium. But Brandon McCarthy and the Rangers are doing pretty well themselves and this price is way too high with Chien-Ming Wang going for the pinstripes.
McCarthy is 5-2 on the year with a 4.35 ERA. The right-hander is 2-1 with a 1.64 ERA over his last three starts.
Wang started the year by getting lit up like a Christmas Tree. His recent return to the roster included a three-inning scoreless stint out of the bullpen, but until I see something more I’m not going to back him at this steep of a price.
The Rangers have enough bats in the lineup to make things miserable for Wang, so I’m not worried about their offensive production at all.
Take the Rangers as the live dog as they grab the road win.
3♦ TEXAS
DAVE COKIN
BOSTON RED SOX/ DETROIT TIGERS
Take BOSTON RED SOX
Tim Wakefield has come back to earth a bit in his last two starts, but I like the venerable knuckleballer's chances of getting back on track here. Wakefield should garner plenty of run support here as Tigers lefty Dontrelle Willis is heading back in the wrong direction after a very brief glimpse of what he used to be. Fact is, that D-Train has left the tracks and is not likely coming back. Boston has won the last two nights and I like them to nail the Tigers again here.
Reply With Quote
JIM FEIST
MILWAUKEE BREWERS / FLORIDA MARLINS
Take OVER
A pair of teams that can crush the baseball meet here, and the first two games of this series sailed over the total. Milwaukee is 5th in the NL in runs scored and starter Dave Bush has been struggling, with a 5.94 ERA his last three starts. The brewers have had little trouble with starter Josh Johnson, who has a 4.50 ERA against them this season. The Brewers have shaken up the bullpen this week, releasing struggling Jorge Julio. Brewers manager Ken Macha said his bullpen was too thin to bridge the gap between the sixth inning and the setup relievers in front of closer Trevor Hoffman. Reliable reliever Mark DiFelice is also out with stiffness in his elbow and right-hander David Riske underwent reconstructive surgery on his right elbow. Looks like an offensive game, play the Brewers/Marlins over the total.
DUNKEL
Orlando at LA Lakers
The Magic open on the road looking to build on their 6-2 ATS mark in their last 8 games as a road underdog between 5 and 10 1/2 points. Orlando is the pick (+6) according to Dunkel, which has the Lakers favored by only 2. Dunkel Pick: Orlando (+6).
Game 701-702: Orlando at LA Lakers
Dunkel Ratings: Orlando 127.611; LA Lakers 129.617
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Lakers by 2; 200 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: LA Lakers by 6; 206 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Orlando (+6); Under
MLB
Milwaukee at Florida
The Marlins look to rebound from their 9-6 loss last night and build on their 9-2 record in Josh Johnson's last 11 starts as a favorite. Florida is the pick (-150) according to Dunkel, which has the Marlins favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Florida (-150).
Game 951-952: NY Mets at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Pelfrey) 15.480; Pittsburgh (Ohlendorf) 14.465
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-120); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-120); Over
Game 953-954: San Francisco at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Cain) 15.563; Washington (Detwiler) 14.502
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Washington (-110); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+100); Over
Game 955-956: Chicago Cubs at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Zambrano) 15.931; Atlanta (Jurrjens) 14.773
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-135); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+125); Under
Game 957-958: Milwaukee at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Bush) 15.759; Florida (Johnson) 16.888
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Florida (-150); 8
Dunkel Pick: Florida (-150); Under
Game 959-960: Colorado at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Hammel) 13.956; Houston (Rodriguez) 14.733
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Houston (-175); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-175); Over
Game 961-962: Cincinnati at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Harang) 14.941; St. Louis (Carpenter) 15.799
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-175); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-175); Over
Game 963-964: Philadelphia at LA Dodgers
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Hamels) 16.378; LA Dodgers (Kershaw) 15.605
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-110); 8
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+100); Over
Game 965-966: LA Angels at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Lackey) 14.227; Toronto (Tallet) 14.824
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Toronto (-115); 9
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-115); Over
Game 967-968: Boston at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Wakefield) 15.605; Detroit (Willis) 15.756
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Boston (-135); 10
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+125); Under
Game 969-970: Texas at NY Yankees
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (McCarthy) 17.338; NY Yankees (Wang) 16.240
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-155); 11 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (+145); Under
Game 971-972: Cleveland at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Carmona) 15.620; Minnesota (Baker) 15.990
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-145); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-145); Over
Game 973-974: Oakland at Chicago White Sox
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Anderson) 14.509; White Sox (Buehrle) 15.915
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-170); 9
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (-170); Under
Game 975-976: Kansas City at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Meche) 14.021; Tampa Bay (Shields) 14.954
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-165); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-165); Under
NHL
Detroit at Pittsburgh
The Red Wings look to rebound from their 4-2 loss on Tuesday and build on their 4-0 record in their last 4 games after scoring 2 goals or less in the previous game. Detroit is the pick (+130) according to Dunkel, which has the Red Wings favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+130).
Game 7-8: Detroit at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 14.343; Pittsburgh 13.770
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Pittsburgh (-150); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+130); Under
MATT FARGO
San Francisco Giants @ Washington Nationals
PICK: San Francisco Giants
This is game two of the doubleheader between San Francisco and Washington. The Giants lost in Washington on Tuesday but I see a big rebound performance on Thursday following yesterday’s rainout. San Francisco has struggled on the road this season but it is playing the worst team in baseball who won for just the first time in seven games. The Nationals wins do not come often and they have not won back-to-back games since May 8th and 9th, going 0-4 following a win since then which shows just how few and far between those victories have been coming. This will come into play if the Nationals win this afternoon in the first game but I do not see that happening either so this is just an example of how the wins just are not coming through for Washington. The Giants are 7-16 on the road but Washington is 8-16 at home so the difference is minimal. Of those 16 losses for San Francisco, 12 have come against division opponents. The Giants send Matt Cain to the hill as a small chalk and he is well worth laying a small price. He is arguably one of the best pitchers in baseball that no one knows about. Part of the reason is that he is overshadowed by Tim Lincecum and the other is simply due to bad luck. Cain went 15-30 in 2007 and 2008 which looks horrible but when you see his ERA over those two years of 3.71, it is a whole difference story. He never got run support but that has changed this season as he is getting 5.2 rpg. He is pitching even better, going 6-1 with a 2.31 ERA in 10 starts with San Francisco going 7-3 in those games. Eight of those 10 starts have been quality outings including all four on the road where his ERA is a spectacular 1.29. Washington counters with Ross Detwiler who looked good in his first two outings but was hit hard last time out against the Phillies, allowing five runs on 10 hits in just four innings. Going back home could help but playing for Washington negates that as he has dropped both games pitched at National Park. The Giants are 7-0 in Cain’s last seven starts against the National League East and they have won nine of the last 11 meetings in this series. Washington has struggled even against the bad road teams in the league as it is 2-9 in its last 11 home games against teams with a road winning percentage less than .400. 3* San Francisco Giants
John Ryan
Texas Rangers vs. New York Yankees
Play: Texas Rangers
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Texas as the face the NY Yankees slated to start at 1:05. Weather looks quite favorable that this game will be played without interruption. Wang is being brought back to face this arsenal? Not sure what the GM thinking is with this one and it certainly must have the Ranger players licking there chops. Supporting this graded play is a strong system that has posted a 84-73 mark making 37.7 units since 2003. Play against all favorites with a money line of -110 or higher with a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.50 or worse on the season and has a poor defensive catcher allowing 0.85 + SB's/game on the season. Texas is a solid 24-14 (+9.4 Units) against the money line when the total is 10 or higher this season. Ranger starter McCarthy has been pitching quite well sporting a 1.64 ERA allowing ZERO HR over his last 3 starts. Take Texas
Matt Rivers
For Thursday lay a run and a half with the Twins.
I don't know why Fausto Carmona is as pathetic right now as he is but he just is. The Cleveland righthander was horrendous as a reliever three years back and would blow game after game after game. But then a season later Carmona was made into a starter and the guy became borderline great. The sinker was phenomenal and the righthander became part of a great one-two punch with then teammate CC Sabathia.
Unfortunately for Carmona he did get injured last season and has pretty much lost it. I do believe that if Carmona regains some confidence he could return to at least being a serviceable hurler but right now he is as bad as they come and here on the turf at the Metrodome is abou to get whacked by Justin Morneau, Joe Mauer and the Twins.
Cleveland is a mess of a club right now and it boggles my mind how Eric Wedge still has a job. The Indians definitely have some talent but have been underachieving over the last few seasons with the best of them. Grady Sizemore is now on the DL and Travis Hafner and Victor Martinez are not 100% healthy. The bullpen blows more games than...well you fill in the rest of the joke and playing in Minnesota with their turf and crazy roof is just not a very good environment for this Cleveland team. Yesterday the team obviously performed very well for their ace in Cliff Lee but lightning ain't striking twice here!
The Twins win a ton more than they don't when at home and Scott Baker, despite the rough start to the season, is not bad at all and will be just fine today in a solid 8-3 type of a victory.
Jr Tips
COLORADO ROCKIES vs. HOUSTON ATROS
The Houston Astros(23-28) are gaining confidence agsinst the Colorado Rockies as they look to sweep a four-game set from the last-place Rockies tonight. For the Atros, Pence went 4 for 5 with a triple, a home run and three RBIs in a 6-4 win over Colorado on Tuesday.treak to four games. The Astros have won five consecutive meetings with Colorado (20-32) and seven of the last eight, with Pence playing a big part. The right fielder is 12 for 25 (.480) with a homer and five RBIs in six games against the Rockies this season. Pence has been hot of late, collecting 22 hits with a .400 average over the last 15 games. The Astros will start Wandy Rodriguez (5-4, 2.26 ERA), who looks to continue his own success against Colorado. The left-hander is 4-1 with a 3.35 ERA in eight starts against the Rockies, including a 3-0 mark and 1.50 ERA in the last five. He beat them again May 14, allowing three runs and five hits with a career-best 11 strikeouts in seven innings of a 5-3 win. The Rockies, in the NL West cellar with the second-worst record in the majors will start Jason Hammel (1-3, 4.83).The right-hander is 1-1 with a 1.64 ERA in five road games - three starts.Hammel is coming off another bad start at home, lasting just 3 2/3 innings while surrendering six runs and eight hits in an 8-7 win over San Diego. Hammel lost his only career start against the Astros on May 14, giving up four runs - one earned and seven hits in 5 1/3 innings opposite Rodriguez. The hard throwing Rodriguez already beat the Rockies when he went head to head with Hammel. The Rockies have only gotten worse since that time and they are facing a Houston team they just can't beat.
TAKE COLORADO-165 or TAKE COLORADO -1 1/2
Tom Freese
Cincinnati Reds at St Louis Cardinals
Prediction: Under
Cincinnati starter Aaron Harang has a 6-1 strikeout to walk ratio in his last 3 starts. The Reds are 13-5 UNDER as home dogs and they are 15-7-2 UNDER their last 24 games vs. a pitcher with a WHIP of less than 1.15. Harang is 5-2-1 UNDER his last 8 road starts. St. Louis starter Chris Carpenter has a better than 6-1 strikeout in his last 3 starts. The Cardinals are 8-1 UNDER in the last 9 home starts made by Carpenter and he has allowed 3 runs total in his last 5 starts. The Redbirds are 24-9-3 UNDER at home vs. winning teams. PLAY ON 'UNDER' (Carpenter vs. Harang)
MTi Sports
Oakland Athletics at Chicago White Sox
Prediction: Under
The White Sox are 0-7 OU as a favorite and in the last game of a series and the Athletics are 0-8 OU when they blew a lead in their starter's last start and lost. Both trends are from THIS season only. Consider the White Sox and A's UNDER.
LARRY NESS
San Francisco Giants @ Washington Nationals
PICK: San Francisco Giants
The Giants are a much better team than the Nationals, entering this game 25-25 compared to Washington's 14-36 mark. However, the Nats were able to hang in vs reigning Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum on Tuesday night, as Lincecum allowed eight hits and four runs (two earned) over 6.1 innings, before exploding for six-run eighth inning vs the San Fran bullpen. Comparing the Giants' road mark (7-16 while averaging 3.26 RPG) with the Nats' home mark (8-16 while allowing 5.68 RPG) and the teams are much closer in ability in this setting. However, I should note that the Giants were 7-0 (including 4-0 at Nationals Park) vs the Nats during the 2008 season. The Nationals own MLB's worst ERA (5.69 ERA) and it led to the firing of pitching coach Randy St Claire on Tuesday. The Nationals promoted Steve McCatty from Triple-A to replace him and tonight McCatty will get a first-hand look at the team's top pitching prospect, rookie Jordan Zimmermann. Zimmermann opened 2-0 with 3-2 and 8-1 wns (2.38 ERA and a 8-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio) but has allowed five ERs or more in FIVE of his last six starts. He's 0-2 with a 7.27 ERA during that span, with the Nationals going 1-5. Zimmermann's mound opponent tonight, is Randy Johnson. You may have heard of him? The Big Unit looks to become the 24th pitcher to reach 300 wins in tonight's game. He's accomplished a few things in his career, including five Cy Young awards while winning a World Series ring and being named co-MVP. The 10-time All-Star has thrown two no-hitters (including MLB's last perfect game in 2004) and ranks second on the career strikeout list with 4,843. Johnson is 45-years old and some of his outings in 2009 have been downright 'ugly' and he's 4-4 with a 5.71 ERA overall, in 10 starts (team is 5-5). He has however, looked very good in his last two outings, going 5.1 innings (six hits and one ER with a 7-3 ratio) at Seattle and then getting win No. 299 at home vs Atlanta in his last outing. He went six innings vs the Braves last Wednesday, allowing three hits and one ER (5-0 ratio) in a 6-3 win. That's 1.59 ERA in his last two starts, with 12 Ks and just two walks. Johnson got his first win in his major league debut (Sept 15, 1988) while pitching for the then-Montreal Expos. Now, more than two decades later, he's poised to join MLB's "300-Club" by beating that very same franchise, now the Washington Nationals. Doesn't this just feel like the perfect setting? All that stands in Johnson's way is MLB's worst team (the 14-36 Nationals) and a rookie pitcher who has posted a 7.27 ERA in his last six outings. Better yet, Johnson's the slight underdog. Take the Giants, as Johnson gets win No. 300 a day later than scheduled, after last night's rainout.
LEE KOSTROSKI
Boston Red Sox @ Detroit Tigers
PICK: Detroit Tigers
The return to action for Dontrelle Willis has not been perfectly smooth but he has pitched well at home, allowing only three runs in 13 innings. Willis still will occasionally walk batters but he has shown a lot of progress and there will be great value on the left-hander as his overall numbers will take some time to level out. He will be backed up by a Detroit bullpen that has done an admirable job this season, holding opposing batters to just a .247 average while only losing five games.
Tim Wakefield owns very strong numbers so far this season thanks to a fantastic run in April when everything was working for him. His recent results have been much less impressive, allowing 26 runs in 33 innings in the month of May for a 7.09 ERA. He has pitched much worse in away games this season with a 1.66 WHIP and a 5.70 ERA for the year. Boston owns a great bullpen but this is a team that has performed worse in every area away from home. Detroit is the third city on a long road trip for the Red Sox and Boston is just 13-16 in road games.
The Tigers are batting .275 in home games and overall on the year Detroit is averaging over 5.1 runs scored per game. Detroit has outscored opponents by 41 runs on the season while posting a 15-8 record at home including going 8-3 in the past eleven contests at Comerica Park. Boston is just 6-8 in the past 14 road games while scoring four runs or fewer in ten of those games. Wakefield owns six wins but he has allowed 18 runs in his past three road starts, failing to get past the fifth inning in any of those outings.
Mike Rose
Detroit Red Wings +1.5 -235
After an absence that has felt like it has lasted for the entire season, C Pavel Datsyuk appears to be ready to step back on the ice for the Red Wings. The lineup change comes at a perfect time, even though both LW Henrik Zetterberg and C Johan Franzen recorded a goal and an assist in a wild 2-2 first period on Tuesday night. Datsyuk led the Wings with 96 points in the regular season, and also had the teams best +/- ratio at +34. Detroit played strong defense after a poor first period of play, especially in the second period when it held Pittsburgh to just four shots on net. Unfortunately, the fact that it didnt score in that period probably sealed its Game 3 fate. G Chris Osgood snapped back to reality by allowing three goals on just 20 shots. It was just the second time since Game 7 against Anaheim that Detroit goaltender had allowed more than two goals in a game. For the Red Wings offense, the two goals scored tied the fewest goals that the team had scored since getting beaten 2-1 in Anaheim in Game 6 of that series.
Welcome to the series, Sidney Crosby! Crosby finally got on the board in Game 3, recording an assist on what ultimately ended up being D Sergei Gonchars game-winning goal in the third period. Fellow C Evgeni Malkin had a second straight solid game, as he logged three assists. The hero was C Maxime Talbot though, as he opened the scoring and set a positive tone for the Penguins at 4:48 of the first period, and then finished the game off with an empty-netter with less than a minute to play. It also had to be a relief for Penguins bettors to see G Marc-Andre Fleury post a solid outing. He stopped his final 19 shots of the game, rebounding from a poor first period to get the W. Still, his defense is to thank for holding the team that averages the most shots per game in the NHL (36.5) to just three shots on net in the critical third period. C Jordan Staal has been totally MIA in this series, as he only has five shots and has yet to reach the scoreboard, continuing what has already been a very frustrating postseason for the youngster.
After narrowly escaping with a win in our third straight attempt at the over in this series, well do more focusing in on the side tonight. Detroit has to be fuming after letting the second period slip out of its grasps on Tuesday. With Datsyuk likely returning to the lineup, its really hard to see how the Pens are winning this game by more than a goal, barring the empty netter. Theres a good chance that the Wings take a commanding 3-1 series lead tonight, but the far safer play is on the puckline. Tuesdays game marked the first time in the playoffs that the Wings had lost a game by more than one goal. Its hard to see a worse result than a one-goal Pittsburgh win in Game 4.
Dennis Macklin
Texas Rangers at New York Yankees
Prediction: Under
The Rangers are on a 5-2-1 run to the low, the Yankees 8-3-1 under in L12 themselves. Texas' Brendan McCarthy is 2-0 and 0.60 in his last two and dominated the Bombers the only time he faced them last year. Sure Wang is 0-3 with an ERA of 34.00 but he's had a couple of very sharp three inning long relief outings since coming off the DL and appears to be over hip ailment that apparently prevented him from pushing off. Getaway Day games generally fly and geeeeeeeeeez, this total is eleven and a hook !!! Play the Under.