Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Florida Marlins -150
I'll take Florida at home tonight to bounce back from yesterday's loss to win this 4-game set. Josh Johnson has been terrific for the Fish this season, going 4-1 with a 2.66 ERA. He has been even better at home with an ERA of just 1.66. He'll give the Fish the edge over Bush, who has struggled some with a ERA of 5.94 over his last 3 starts. In fact, Bush is 12-36 against the money line as a road underdog of +100 or higher since 1997 while Johnson is 19-6 against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. Cash in with Florida tonight
Freddy Wills
LAA Angels vs. Toronto Blue Jays
It has been a rough ride for John Lackey since coming back he has a 6.06 ERA. He'll make a day start at 12:37 eastern time and it will be 9:37 on his watch. I think he will definitely struggle here for sure. He is coming off his worst start and I do not expect it to get much better here today.
Toronto is 19-8 at home this year and they are hitting better and scoring more runs during the day this year than they are at night. Brian Tallet has a 1.16 whip and a 3.32 ERA in his last 3 starts and he is 2-1 during the day with a 3.25 ERA as well as posting a solid 2.96 home ERA. In his last 6 starts he has gone at least 6 innings and has not given up more than 3 ER. That is what we call a quality start so 6 in a row.. Let's make it 7!
Take Blue Jays -101
Drew Gordon
San Francisco -110 at WASHINGTON - Game 2
Solid Free Play winner on the Reds (+115) over the Cardinals 9-3 Wednesday! Now 6-2 over my L8 Freebies, and you best believe I keep it rolling Thursday...
I can understand why some bettors would be hesitant to back the Giants on the road, with their 7-16 record away, its takes a keen eye to pick the spot where they not only present value, but also will deliver that value. Not seeing much I like in the first game of this doubleheader, but the second game is a much different story, as Matt Cain gets the nod, and that's always been a very good thing for Giants-backers this season.
No doubt, Cain is on fire, going 3-0 with a mind-boggling 0.84 ERA over his last 3 starts! Only one of those starts was on the road, but his win at Seattle was impressive nonetheless, going the distance allowing only 1 run, while striking out 7. That win lowered his already gaudy numbers on the road to 2-0 with a miniscule 1.29 ERA away this season! He's also got solid numbers against this Nationals club, going 3-2 with a 2.76 ERA in 7 career starts - and right now he's pitching as well as he ever has in his career!
You want to talk about a mismatch? Rookie southpaw Ross Detwiler has the great misfortune of having to oppose the red-hot Cain, and he'll have to be perfect just to give his team a chance. True, the Giants have not hit lefties well on the road, but the way Detwiler pitched against the Phillies in his last start, they'll be plenty of chances for San Fran to get on the board. He allowed 5 runs on 10 hits over just 4 innings in that contest, and despite Phillies much more potent offense, the Giants do average a decent 4.2 runs/game against lefties this season (should be more than enough with Cain on the hill).
Bottom line, in years past this would've been a battle between two bottom-feeders, but not so this season. The Giants are 25-25, sitting in second place in the NL West, and with Cain on the hill they are capable of beating anyone the way he's pitching right now. In the end, look for another quality effort from Cain, as he easily outpitches the rook in this one.
Take San Francisco behind Cain over Washington and Detwiler in Game 2 of this MLB match up.
2♦ SAN FRANCISCO
Maddux Sports - free pick on a 60% win run
since the year 2003 - believe it or not........
Today's Free Pick is Orlando & LA Under 206
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Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports
272 - 177 run 60 % Thurs Atl Braves
17-6 run (almost 75% win % short term)
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Free Selection from Totals4U
Thursday's free selection:
Philadelphia Phillies/Los Angeles Dodgers under 8
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EZWINNER'S FREE SELECTION
Game: Chicago Cubs @ Atlanta Braves
(956) Atlanta Braves -$127
(Listing Jurrjens and Zambrano)
In a stretch of six starts this season, the Braves scored
a total of nine runs for their starting pitcher Jair Jurrjens,
so his 5-2 record is actually very impressive. Jurrjens
has the ability to shut down the opponents in tight games
and that is what I expect to happen here. Carlos Zambrano
returns from suspension to make this start tonight, but he
is already in trouble again for missing the team charter
to Atlanta. I like the Braves to pick up the win here.
2009 Free Selections Record 83-68 (55.0%)
8)
Wunderdog
Kansas City at Tampa Bay
Pick: Tampa Bay -170
The Tampa Bay Rays have the wheels in motion at home once again and they have been tough here. They have blitzed Kansas City in the first two games of this series by a combined score of 15-2, and the Rays have now won five of their last six at home by a combined score of 33-15. It's needless to say that the pitching and hitting are both clicking. The Royals are once again in free-fall mode on the road. They have now dropped nine of their last 10 road tilts, and have been outscored by an amazing 55-14. That represents an average score of 5.5-1.4, or by over four runs per game. You're not going to win too many games scoring just over one run per game. The Rays are killing the teams they should beat at home, as they have run their mark at home to 42-9 when favored in the range of -151 to -200. The Royals are just 7-21 in their last 28 in Tampa, and that included a lot of bad Tampa teams, which this one certainly isn't. I'm going with the Rays in this one.
VEGAS EXPERTS
Milwaukee Brewers at Florida Marlins
Florida won the first two games of this four-game series in Miami, but Milwaukee was able to get a 9-6 win last night. Tonight the Marlins will throw their most dominant pitcher this season on the mound in Josh Johnson. Johnson has been outstanding at home this season in his six starts with a 1.66 ERA and a 4-2 TSR in 43 and 1/3 innings. The Marlins right-hander has a 19-6 TSR over the past two seasons. Milwaukee’s Dave Bush has not pitched well as an underdog as he has a 12-36 TSR. Go with the Marlins.
Play on: Florida
IndianCowboy
Take Under 8.5 between San Francisco Giants @ Washington Nationals (Thursday @ 8:05pm est)
Sometimes when a line looks to good to be true it is. But, you are not ballsy enough to go against the line, so you ride it indirectly. Such is the case in today's NL contest between the Giants @ Washington. The line is strikingly low with Cain as is just -110 for a pitcher that is 6-1 with a 2.31 era. But rather than rolling with 70% of the public, let's take the Under 8.5 as I believe the line indicates that Vegas is expecting a solid performance from Detwiler. Remember, the Giants have not seen this young man, he is coming off a start where he gave up 5 runs and this is undoubtedly a bounce-back for him. Both offenses are shotty at best and I like the 8.5 number here as this is likely to be a pitcher's duel most of the way. The Under is 4-1 for Cain in his last 5 starts with 5 days of rest, the Under is 14-3-1 for the Giants in their last 18 games against left-handed pitching and the Under is 5-0 in Kellog's last 5 games behind the plate.